GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 865
Gooper Blooper | Posted 3/5/2010 9:35:52 PM | message detail |
I
can't see Sephiroth losing to MissingNo. I mean, I guess it's not
impossible but it seems very unlikely that it'll go from barely beating
Crono to defeating the third strongest character in the contest. I think most people are hoping Missingno gets some extra factors it didn't have in its first two matches, plus its usual tricks. -The casual voters know Sephy is really strong, and anti-voting's been pretty heavy this contest. -Missingno may start gathering steam around the Internet, although it's probably still too early for a real bandwagon. -The picture makes Missingno stand out very, very clearly, attracting attention -Missingno's trump card: Rallies. It's easy to rally against FF7... perhaps even easier than rallying against Chrono Trigger. And Missy's shown he can even successfully rally against a fellow Nintendo character who gets little hate - Yoshi. Missingno will be unable to call upon his great ASV, though... he'd better hope his fans are mostly people who work and not people who go to school - maybe the older folks will be up at midnight to rally then. -Overall, this contest has had many results that just plain don't make sense. A PSP game provided an enormous boost in power to three entrants and got a fourth into the bracket and the third round, for crying out loud. We had a match decided by a HOCKEY GAME. No amount of insanity is enough for this bracket. Sephiroth is very much the favorite, but I think Missingno could give him a match. Or he could flop. Who the hell knows. --- And then the car wash cost five dollars. Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 |
XxSoulxX | Posted 3/5/2010 9:36:15 PM | message detail |
And people trying to say Bowser/Kefka was impressive is like me trying to spin Squall/Terra as an impressive match! It wasn't! I'm on the fence on that one. Again, going off of Squall's strength, he shouldn't have any problem with her. But she did boost big time, so it's really hard to say if he underperformed or overperformed in that match. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:36:40 PM | message detail |
And people trying to say Bowser/Kefka was impressive is like me trying to spin Squall/Terra as an impressive match! It wasn't! Bowser/Kefka was only impressive for Bowser because of Squall/Terra. That is the ONLY reason anyone brings up Bowser/Kefka as a good point for Bowser. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/5/2010 9:36:41 PM | message detail |
Magus
is the only CT character that looked like crap. Frog was decent, and
Crono fought hard against one of the strongest newcomers we've ever
seen, whose strength is likely not even transitive. I don't buy CT having a huge deboost in the past 1.5 years myself. A small one, sure, enough that Vincent > Crono becomes a lock maybe, but I'm skeptical about this big CT deboost. --- Not Wylvane |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:36:56 PM | message detail |
It
could be fine, but I don't know where Terra stands! I'm not going to
spin that match and try to say "OH YEAH SQUALL > AURON GUARANTEED!"
with that though! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/5/2010 9:37:13 PM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #020 Sora has the fact that Bowser has only looked good ONE year. He dropped in 2006, then completely fell off the map in 4-ways. 2005 was Bowser's only impressive year for whatever reason. Sora has looked great the last 3 years, and this year had 2 inconclusive matches against 2 unknown opponents. He'll squeak by Bowser, then ride his day vote to victory over the dum pokemon --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://img.imgcake.com/UltisMoneyMgifyv.gif |
XxSoulxX | Posted 3/5/2010 9:37:34 PM | message detail |
We don't even know where Kefka stands. What kind of gauge is that? He's an unknown. Use him through Arthas. If Arthas is equal to Diablo (which he pretty much should be), then Kefka boosted big time. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:37:45 PM | message detail |
2005 was Bowser's only impressive year for whatever reason. Villains Contest Steroids. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
creativename | Posted 3/5/2010 9:38:23 PM | message detail |
All
these arguments about their previous contest performance are about Sora
being the stronger character in a 24 hour match, which I don't think
many of us would dispute. The night match is a huge problem though. A) Just look at any of Sora's previous matches. B) Look at his %age at noon. C) Look at his final %age. Yeah...there's a problem here. I mean hell, in a match with Yoshi and Fox he went from 26.65% to finishing with 28.31%! To put that into perspective, his %age the first 12 hours was 26.65%. His percentage the second 12 hours was 29.91%. People really seem to underestimate much of a second 12 hour behemoth Sora is. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 3/5/2010 9:38:24 PM | message detail |
The question is, would Sonic still have a shot at Crono? --- Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING |
XxSoulxX | Posted 3/5/2010 9:38:42 PM | message detail |
Actually, I think I'm arguing the complete opposite in both matches or something. I'm going to bed now. --- "Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:39:37 PM | message detail |
Man, I ain't usin' Arthas! He's even more unreliable than Kefka! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/5/2010 9:41:16 PM | message detail |
For real **** Arthas. How does one go from cruising over Diablo(who beat Kefka) to LOSING TO THAT VERY SAME KEFKA. In EMBARRASSING fashion? How. --- "I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:41:54 PM | message detail |
Definitely
don't use Arthas. Well, actually, using Arthas probably would exceed my
expected 5% CTDS boost for Frog, so it's quite welcome. Actually, it'd
probably be more like a 10% boost for Frog. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/5/2010 9:42:06 PM | message detail |
I
thought Sora's performance on Midna was just fine. If Sora had gotten
70% on Laharl, I think people would be seeing him as the slight
favorite, but alas, 67.5% on a guy who's been tripled before just
doesn't look good. I wouldn't mind throwing the Laharl match out and
chalking it up to Sora's inability to blow people out (has he EVER
looked good against weak opponents?), especially since it implies that
Laharl/Midna is a 55/45 match (does ANYONE believe that), but it was a
night match. Bowser is also a night match. I get the feeling that if
Sora and Kratos had switched seeds, we'd be calling Sora a shoe-in in
this division by now. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
creativename | Posted 3/5/2010 9:43:01 PM | message detail |
From: Not_Wylvane | #254 You mean not linear. Not transitive would mean for instance, if Sephiroth beats Missingno, but Yoshi or Crono would beat Sephiroth. Everybody's transitive, unless you're discussing matches than came down to a few votes. But yeah, I agree, the Chrono Trigger decline is overstated. And Frog would've looked notably better in a night match. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/5/2010 9:43:22 PM | message detail |
Wait, which match was decided by a hockey game? Was it the Sackboy awesomeness? FACT/FICTION: Without Smash Bros., every Nintendo character aside from Link would be much weaker. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:43:55 PM | message detail |
And Frog would've looked notably better in a night match. Which isn't good for Bowser, really. And Kefka breaks 40% on Bowser at night. That's not what I consider impressive ever. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:43:55 PM | message detail |
We
tend to fixate on results without considering circumstances a lot.
Indeed, we tend to focus on the win/loss result without considering the
percentages a lot too. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X |
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 3/5/2010 9:43:58 PM | message detail |
Sonic
was so strong in 2006 because his new 3d game(the now infamous Sonic
'06) was coming out the same week as his Crono/Snake matches. I think
if those matches happen a week later, Sonic would probably get his ass
kicked >_> --- This is good...isn't it? - Big motha****ing Boss |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/5/2010 9:44:03 PM | message detail |
From: LinkMarioSamus | #067 Ryu/Dante. Sackboy had the Super Bowl. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:44:31 PM | message detail |
Sackboy was THE SUPER BOWL FACTOR --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
creativename | Posted 3/5/2010 9:44:44 PM | message detail |
Ryu overcame the hockey game to beat Dante. Actually it may have just been that the hockey game viewers delayed their votes, because the instant after the medal ceremony ended he got a huge surge of votes. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/5/2010 9:44:50 PM | message detail |
Looking
at Bowser's post-2005 contest history... He only 55-45'd Leon Kennedy
and got destroyed by the weakest Crono we've ever seen in 2006. Ryu
wiped the floor with him twice in 2007. He barely doubled Phoenix
Wright before getting LFF'd out of contention by Luigi in 2008. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:45:54 PM | message detail |
It's interesting that Sonic has had an impressive match more recently than Bowser has (not even counting today)! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/5/2010 9:46:03 PM | message detail |
Well,
there's the fact of the matter that all three CT characters were
unlucky enough to draw day matches (though Magus was against a fellow
night character, Frog was against a character who is probably a little
below average with the ASV, and Crono was in a weekend match). |
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 3/5/2010 9:46:34 PM | message detail |
From: Fayt_Esteed | #074 And he is now the fave against Sora. Funny how that works :/ Damn 12-hour night match taking away Sora's best weapons. --- Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:46:36 PM | message detail |
Actually, what does everyone think Sonic gets on Bowser here? Greater than or less than 55%? --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/5/2010 9:46:43 PM | message detail |
I
just can't believe that I seem to have a legit shot at winning the
contest. My Sephiroth stuff has to go right for me and Charizard has to
win his division. That's not asking for extremes at this point. Oh man,
I could really, REALLY use that money. --- "I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP |
creativename | Posted 3/5/2010 9:47:03 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #309 You're definitely right. I'll also chime in that for trends, people also tend to fixate on geolocation when it comes to trend analysis, rather than just doing the obvious thing of breaking down past character performances by 12 hour segments. And the breakdown for Sora looks ugly. It basically comes out to Sora (Day) 55-45ing Sora (Night). Bowser is also a day character, but not nearly as extreme. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
irriadin | Posted 3/5/2010 9:47:35 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #078 Bowser is more relevant, and more likable. I say less than 55%. --- "I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time. |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:48:38 PM | message detail |
The
way I see it, Bowser was projected to get 47% on Sora in 2006 off
fairly reliable Noble Nine matches. 2006 was a strong year for both
Kingdom Hearts and Nintendo, but which was it a better year for? Have
to go with KH there. Since you've got to chop off another 1.5% for this
being a night match, there really isn't that much room left for Sora to
fall since 2006 above Bowser's fall. Sora's still got good winning
chances though. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X |
Sonic_Factor | Posted 3/5/2010 9:48:40 PM | message detail |
How do people figure sonic vs kirby will go now? I'm not sure about the recent power differences between kirby and ganondorf. --- hmmmmmmmm |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:48:44 PM | message detail |
From: irriadin | #081 While both of these things are certainly true, Bowser's never looked stronger than Ganondorf in the past! Not that he can't be now, but I wonder how big Bowser's Inside Story really was for him. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 3/5/2010 9:49:08 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #078 I remember Ryu beating Bowser twice in '07, and Ken narrowly avoided the doubling against Elevator-farting Ganon. How many people would take Ryu > Ganon? --- Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:49:51 PM | message detail |
I
just can't believe that I seem to have a legit shot at winning the
contest. My Sephiroth stuff has to go right for me and Charizard has to
win his division. That's not asking for extremes at this point. Oh man,
I could really, REALLY use that money. Don't get your hopes up, because just as it looks like you're about to win, Karma Hunter swoops in a vote stuffs for Snake. Trust me! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:49:56 PM | message detail |
How many people would take Ryu > Ganon? Man, don't tempt me! ... --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/5/2010 9:50:14 PM | message detail |
Bowser
always seems to be a lot more involved in the Mario games than
Ganondorf is in the Zelda games. How often do you not see Ganondorf
until the very end or near it in the Zelda games? Bowser's all over the
place in a lot of the Marios. Plus there's Mario Kart and Party and all
those spin-offs that Dorf doesn't have. I'd take Bowser > Ganon head to head I think. --- "I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/5/2010 9:50:16 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #078 Greater. I'd still take the Dorf over Bowser, even Oinkondorf. --- Not Wylvane |
creativename | Posted 3/5/2010 9:50:30 PM | message detail |
Going
further with that, in the Squall/Sora/Cloud/Mewtwo match, over the 1st
12 hours Sora got 14.66%. Over the 2nd 12 he got 16.77%. This works out
to Sora (Day) getting 56.30% against Sora (Night). Ugh...why am I doing this to myself. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:50:37 PM | message detail |
Sonic gets less than 55% on Bowser. Bowser > Bacondorf, plus Ganondorf is more day-trended than Bowser is. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/5/2010 9:50:59 PM | message detail |
From: creativename | #090 augh stop it cn. ;_; --- "I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:51:14 PM | message detail |
This works out to Sora (Day) getting 56.30% against Sora (Night). Man, good luck winning the night vote against Cloud and Squall! Of course he's going to do better during the day! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/5/2010 9:53:17 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #093 Still though, his point is very valid. AUGH why couldn't this one have been a day match. I'm very confident Charizard takes L-Block in the day, and HG/SS's day vote is going to be so heavily Charizard favored. --- "I beat him, and he says lightyears measure distance, not time. ..Dammit, Brock is on another planet." - SEP |
creativename | Posted 3/5/2010 9:54:28 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #453 Against Fox/Yoshi/Squall, competition that is overall slightly more day oriented than average, it's 55.45%. There's really no way to make Sora look decent here. He just has to be plain out of Bowser's league to beat him in a night match. Which is possible, but...ugh. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:55:25 PM | message detail |
FFVII
is actually rather balanced when you look at 12-hour segments. The
first couple of hours are so bad, and are weighted so heavily due to
the large vote intake, that until 2008 FFVII actually always did better
in the 2nd half than the first. In 2008 Cloud and Sephiroth were about
even between the first half and the second half. In 2009, FFVII had a
better first half, but the Cloud match there was from 2008. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/5/2010 9:56:06 PM | message detail |
If
Sora is going to lose, I'd much rather it be in two days. I'm pretty
confident in Bowser being able to take the Nintendo SFF and beat
Charizard with it, whether it's night or day or during a Pokemon
launch. It's kinda hard (for me, anyway) to picture the Nintendo
fanbase siding with Pokemon's big tough dragon monster guy over the top
dragon monster guy Nintendo has had for 25 years. And that would keep me in the Guru running, I believe. Sorry Ex! --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/5/2010 9:56:51 PM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #088 Actually, for most of the platformers, you only see Bowser a few times. Yeah, there's SMB1 where he's the boss of each world, but after that, he's a final boss and if you're lucky appears for one or two more boss battles. Hell, ever since Sunshine you see Bowser Jr. much more often than Bowser himself. Ganondorf didn't have much of a role in TP and is nothing more than a final boss for LoZ1 and LttP (well, besides the whole Agahnim thing), but he does have a large presence in WW and though he only has a few parts in OoT, they're incredibly memorable and his effects on Adult Link Hyrule can affect the player a bit. So I'd say Ganondorf's a bigger presence in his series than Bowser, who's pretty much semi-retired at this point since his son's the one doing all the work now. --- Not Wylvane |
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/5/2010 9:56:56 PM | message detail |
Can I do one, too?! Over the first 12 hours in PW/Geno/Deckard, Bowser had 43.27% of the vote. The rest of the match, he got 46.85%. That gives Bowser nearly 54% on his night self! --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 3/5/2010 9:57:25 PM | message detail |
Well
those numbers make Charizard > Sora > Bowser seem unlikely.
Charizard may be stronger than Bowser, but he shouldn't be able to
56-44 him, unless HG/SS helps a LOT. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 3: Sephiroth!!! Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X |
