GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 863

UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/3/2010 10:00:49 PM | message detail
Return to Rapture.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, Missingno etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
"Spoil FFX for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if Jecht's going to be another Auron or another Sin." -Soul on PW vs Jecht
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/3/2010 10:01:16 PM | message detail
Don't play Earthbound.
---
"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
paulg235 | Posted 3/4/2010 4:22:39 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #002
Don't play Earthbound.


This
---
The Gamer In Me
My Signature's broken, just like your front door.
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/4/2010 4:32:13 AM | message detail
Missingno a near elite but L-block isn't?
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/4/2010 6:01:01 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3824&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Woah.
---
http://gameaxis.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/sephiroth.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
voltch | Posted 3/4/2010 6:21:27 AM | message detail
lol anagram of SNES.
---
Shakes Fist!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/4/2010 6:39:27 AM | message detail
Match XCVI: (10) Tifa Lockheart vs. (2) Gordon Freeman

Last Round

Yuri Lowell – 21.30%
Tifa Lockheart – 78.70%

Gordon Freeman – 53.25%
Princess Peach – 46.75%

Analysis

Final match of the round and mostly likely the seventh 2 seed to fall, I knew some of the 2 seeds were weak compare to their second round opponents, but I didn’t imagine only one of them surviving two rounds. Pre-contest this match got some hype because some people thought Freeman winning the GameSpot contest would translate to a huge boost here and that he could challenge one of the stronger characters in the bracket. Peach put that all to rest within minutes of the match starting.

Tifa hasn’t had a fair contest since 2005 and she won’t in this one either, still she can at least give us some kind of insight to her strength. I feel that Tifa ranks up there with the likes of the other Square near-elites meaning defeating Freeman should be a simple task. However there is a chance that Peach may have increased in strength since her appearance in 2006. While it is possible that Freeman’s strength may have been the result of four-ways I think it is possible that Peach gains a lot of her strength from apathy votes. It is likely that you don’t care about Freeman more than Tifa because PC games are not as popular as consoles and Final Fantasy VII is one of the most popular games on the site.

Tifa should push for above 60% in this match and if Peach doesn’t run on apathy votes then it is likely that she can push for above 64% against Freeman if you keep Tifa and Peach’s performance in 2006 constant. Like Vincent Tifa is a bit wasted in this division, but at least she is able to win a few matches rather than being one and done as Vincent was.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Tifa Lockheart > Gordon Freeman

charmander6000’s Prediction: Tifa wins, 61.32% - 38.68%

---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 99/124 - Today's Winners: Ness and Tifa
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/4/2010 6:39:38 AM | message detail
Ness got absolutely murdered in the Eastern Hemisphere and is on his way to losing by well over 3000 votes. So here's my question: could he have actually won a day match? I think 24 hours is too much of a night gap for him to overcome, but I feel like he would have won the day outright.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/4/2010 6:41:27 AM | message detail
I doubt it. 54-46 is a big margin to turn around, and it's not like Big Daddy is bad during the day. He's still increasing his percentage with the morning here.
---
Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/4/2010 6:43:32 AM | message detail
If we go by past trends, Big Daddy is actually better during the ASV then other times. So no chance.
---
http://gameaxis.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/sephiroth.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
WhiteLens | Posted 3/4/2010 7:02:17 AM | message detail
So could Big Daddy beat Balthier now?
I can't see Ness being weaker than him, seeing how both Ike and Falcon beat their Square opponent.
---
Can you overcome me?
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/4/2010 7:03:49 AM | message detail
Big Daddy would smash Balthier. When he faced Balthier, he was nothing but a random enemy in Bioshock. Now he's the main character of Bioshock 2. This is a different Big Daddy from before.
---
http://gameaxis.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/sephiroth.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism
TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 3/4/2010 7:06:12 AM | message detail
Well, as usual, it seems I was too quick to panic. Goddamned 13-14 combos.
---
CB8 score: 99
Incorrect picks: More than my signature will allow.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/4/2010 7:06:51 AM | message detail
Yeah. Likewise, Shepard could beat Magus now and Drake would escape being doubled by CATS!
---
Not Wylvane
HaRRicH | Posted 3/4/2010 7:16:42 AM | message detail
I've been a fan of thinking Gordon/Big Daddy LFF'd to some degree, too, so Balthier looks better based on that. It also explains how Gordon barely lost to Scorpion in R1 yet smashed him in R2.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/4/2010 7:27:08 AM | message detail
With how well Big Daddy is doing here, he would win in a 24 hour match and would probably win a day match too. There's no way Ness wipes out a lead this large with the second 12 hours of the match.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Draco1214 | Posted 3/4/2010 7:33:43 AM | message detail
Wow, looks like Big Daddy really did turn this into a clinic. Nice!
---
No match for KrahenProphet's extreme Guru skills.
TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 3/4/2010 7:42:00 AM | message detail
Yeah...I still don't get it.

Quote from Big Daddy's entry on the Wiki:

"Big Daddy is one of the commonly seen enemies in the 2007 hit game BioShock. They protect the Little Sisters and attempt to make life a living hell for those who attempt to interfere."

They, not he. It's a friggin' mook! An elite mook, sure, but still just a nameless, faceless mook, not a unique character. Has anything of that sort done that well before?

And here I was thinking that Missingno. was the only joke character in the entire bottom half of the bracket...Big Daddy is doing well. I may have to vote for it next round, just because I need something that could counteract that damn glitch.
---
CB8 score: 99
Incorrect picks: More than my signature will allow.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 7:46:44 AM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #015
I've been a fan of thinking Gordon/Big Daddy LFF'd to some degree, too, so Balthier looks better based on that. It also explains how Gordon barely lost to Scorpion in R1 yet smashed him in R2.


...Who was LFFing Gordon Freeman in 2007?

Ike?
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/4/2010 7:47:10 AM | message detail
Tag
---
"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 7:49:33 AM | message detail
And yeah, there's no way Ness turns this around with a day match because Big Daddy's ASV is pretty good, too. Ness may lose by less, but he's not swinging 3500+ votes.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/4/2010 7:54:51 AM | message detail
Wooohoo! Woke up very nervous to see how this was turning out, and very happy to see that it turned out in my favor! Go Big Daddy.

This probably STILL doesn't get me to the leaderboard, but here's hoping Ness was a massive favorite!
---
"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg
Draco1214 | Posted 3/4/2010 8:03:09 AM | message detail
I'm sure Ness is a pretty big favorite...only 51% had Big Daddy getting past Soap, after all.
---
No match for KrahenProphet's extreme Guru skills.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/4/2010 8:21:44 AM | message detail
I knew some of the 2 seeds were weak compare to their second round opponents, but I didn’t imagine only one of them surviving two rounds.

Yeah, being overrated is one thing, but being overrated AND overseeded is a different animal entirely.
---
"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 3/4/2010 8:34:20 AM | message detail
Freeman wasn't THAT much of a disappointment in round 1, especially after seeing DK and Ridley in action...though I thought that Freeman would actually lose (last match of the first round, GFNW, trends not making sense, etc.), and that the winner would have 56% at most. The lowest analysis crew pick seemed to be 59%, however. But did you honestly expect Freeman to boost from a victory at a similar contest held on another site? Look what game won Gamespy's contest back in '04, and see how well that same game did in our recent contest.

Freeman is practically the face of next-gen video gaming at this point (and it shows here as well, as HL2 is stronger than every other non-GameFAQs type game from 2004-2009 according to charmander's x-stats, and approaching 40% on Twilight Princess is no joke on this site), and it saddens me to think that I'm going to be voting against him (I would probably vote for Freeman over Zelda/Ganondorf/Yoshi/whatnot at this point...oh no wait, put him a little below them IMO, because I'm not too much a fan of characters who practically exist only in concept art) when I wake up. But, uh, IT'S ONE OF THE BETTER CHARACTERS FROM ONE OF THE BEST GAMES EVER MADE, SO MR. FREEMAN CAN RAGE AT ME LATER FOR NOT COMING TO HIS AID.

As I said, Mr. Freeman definetely breaks 35%, and might approach 40% as well. Neither of these characters is very good during the ASV, and both Freeman and Peach have reason to be stronger than they were in '06 while Tifa has reason to be weaker.

Finally, if people want to vote for Ridley against Cloud, I'm assuming that that quarter of the site's voting population is composed of diehard Smash fans, and if those people want to vote for Ridley over Cloud than they would most definetely vote for Peach over Freeman. Surely Peach is not anti-voted?
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 8:47:12 AM | message detail
You know, Tifa/Gordon should give us a pretty good idea about whether New Square is weaker (and potentially whether Mario characters are stronger). Tifa should by all means win this match easily, but if she struggles, who knows.
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/4/2010 8:53:16 AM | message detail
Low votals again.
---
"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 8:55:19 AM | message detail
It's pretty interesting looking at the map for this match. Almost all of the Western Hemisphere except for the U.S. and a few others supports Ness, and nearly all of the Eastern Hemisphere except for Japan and a few others supports Big Daddy.
---
"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/4/2010 8:57:00 AM | message detail
Yikes, Ness got stomped. I'll ask once again: Big Daddy vs. Riku?
---
Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 8:58:55 AM | message detail
Big Daddy.

I'll take him over Captain Falcon, too. I don't think Ness is that much weaker than he is.
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/4/2010 8:59:48 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBFkFV-RTW0

Let's do this.
---
Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 3/4/2010 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Tifa Lockheart 28.57%

2
Gordon Freeman 71.43%

5
TOTAL VOTES 7
---
Moltar Status: Prediction: Big Daddy > Ness (100/124)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/4/2010 9:00:18 AM | message detail
Tifa Lockheart 43.75%

7
Gordon Freeman 56.25%

9
TOTAL VOTES 16

*salutes*
---
Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 9:00:24 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Tifa Lockheart 37.5%

3
Gordon Freeman 62.5%

5
TOTAL VOTES 8

27.52% for Big Daddy
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 9:00:57 AM | message detail
...Yep, New Square's fine.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/4/2010 9:01:18 AM | message detail
Gordon sux
---
http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/4/2010 9:01:24 AM | message detail
Oh man, this gon get ugly. So much for Peach/Gordy strength or Tifa weakness.
---
Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 3/4/2010 9:01:29 AM | message detail
gordon sux
---
Moltar Status: Prediction: Big Daddy > Ness (100/124)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 9:01:52 AM | message detail
Holy crap, Tifa might beat Gordon worse than she beat Peach!
---
"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/4/2010 9:03:10 AM | message detail
GOD DAMNIT.

There are only 9 110s who didn't make the leaderboard and one of them was me. -_-

Here's hoping at least 8 people around me picked Gordon today.
---
"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 9:03:43 AM | message detail
Here's hoping at least 8 people around me picked Gordon today.

Man, who would possibly be dumb enough to pick Gordon over Tifa?

C'mon now!
---
"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
Draco1214 | Posted 3/4/2010 9:04:00 AM | message detail
So how about that Mario character boost?
---
No match for KrahenProphet's extreme Guru skills.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/4/2010 9:04:19 AM | message detail
Tifa Lockheart 65.96% 186
Gordon Freeman 34.04% 96
TOTAL VOTES 282

...Gordon, you frigging suck.
---
"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 9:04:19 AM | message detail
And this is supposed to be a stronger Gordon than the one Sora beat, right?
---
"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/4/2010 9:05:01 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #044
And this is supposed to be a stronger Gordon than the one Sora beat, right?


Uhhh pretty easily. Orange Box was a bigtime release. Tifa's such a babe.
---
Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 3/4/2010 9:05:49 AM | message detail
Only 1 out of 4 had Big Daddy...Why?
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/4/2010 9:06:04 AM | message detail
Although to be honest, I won't be surprised if Tifa drops from here. She's like the only FFVII character with a decent board vote.

Well, Yuri did pretty well against her there, and Peach won the board vote against Freeman, so I dunno. He should do better with the ASV, but I don't think he should get above 40% here.
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/4/2010 9:06:36 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #041
Here's hoping at least 8 people around me picked Gordon today.

Man, who would possibly be dumb enough to pick Gordon over Tifa?

C'mon now!


If I don't make the leaderboard tomorrow I am going to be SO PISSED
---
"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 3/4/2010 9:06:47 AM | message detail
Reminder: People took Gordon over Tifa knowing full well that Gordon's best performance in his entire contest history was struggling to avoid getting doubled by an LFFed Samus.
---
http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
WhiteLens | Posted 3/4/2010 9:07:10 AM | message detail

From: TsunamiXXVIII | #018
Yeah...I still don't get it.

Quote from Big Daddy's entry on the Wiki:

"Big Daddy is one of the commonly seen enemies in the 2007 hit game BioShock. They protect the Little Sisters and attempt to make life a living hell for those who attempt to interfere."

They, not he. It's a friggin' mook! An elite mook, sure, but still just a nameless, faceless mook, not a unique character. Has anything of that sort done that well before?

And here I was thinking that Missingno. was the only joke character in the entire bottom half of the bracket...Big Daddy is doing well. I may have to vote for it next round, just because I need something that could counteract that damn glitch.


Bioshock 2, where Big Daddy is the MAIN character. Yeah I totally forgot about that game and its release date when making my bracket. Plus he's on the cover of the game, so he pretty much represents it to the fanbase.

The only thing that can beat Missingno at this rate is Sephiroth. That match is all in his favor.
---
If you think my account was named after White Len, please note that my account was created in '03 and Melty Blood: ReACT came out in '04.