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I don't really think 2007 and 2008 Crono are any different. That match with Vincent was going exactly the same way until the ASV hit, and...Vincent sputtered.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

I FEEL ASLEEP

Zzzzzzz....
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

But the fact that Bowser lost to Ryu at all speaks a lot about him.

First, Shadow was in that match. But even if you think Ryu still wins without Shadow, would Luigi beat Ryu? Compare 42% on Megaman with 40% on Sonic in 2006.......we tend to think Ryu is below the Bowser/Luigi/Yoshi group because Bowser beat him so badly in 2005, but there's really no need to hold that match against him anymore, and without that, there's not really a case for Ryu not being right with them.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X

Match XCV: (14) Big Daddy vs. (6) Ness

Last Round

Soap MacTavish – 38.25%
Big Daddy – 61.75%

Ness – 64.81%
Geno – 35.19%

Analysis

Another weak four-pack comes to a close; this match however is pretty debatable. Last contest Ness should have no problems defeating the Big Daddy that lost to Balthier, but with Bioshock 2 just been released a few weeks ago Big Daddy has a great chance for an upset making him the second 14 seed to reach the third round of a contest.

Ness was able to pick up a decent win over Geno though many people would blame that on Geno’s weakness or even Ness SFF Geno. Big Daddy on the other hand defeated Soap by more than we thought. Even though Soap was a new character it was impressive since it wasn’t too far from what Mega Man X did on Price. After doing some research I would take Price over Soap in a match based on their roles in Call of Duty plus in the second round Mega Man X didn’t exactly look as strong as his counter-part. Still you don’t need to exactly be the strongest character to defeat Ness.

There is some question of whether or not Freeman and Big Daddy share a fanbase because of Freeman’s performances between rounds 1 and 2 and if that were true the combination of being underrated and Bioshock 2 should be enough to put Big Daddy over Ness. However I’m having a hard time seeing why those two characters would overlap by any large amount. Big Daddy did look rather impressive in the vote-ins despite Andrew Ryan being in the same poll.

The main reason I think Ness can win is that the guy seems to perform a lot better against characters that he has nothing in common with. As long as no Nintendo is anywhere near him I feel that Ness can look at least decent. I may consider Big Daddy to be the favourite now, but I just don’t see Ness losing until I see it in a poll.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Ness > Big Daddy

charmander6000’s Prediction: Ness wins, 52.25% - 47.75%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 97/120 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Crono

I think what we need to realize is that very, very few characters translate perfectly between years and that this year is going to be just as different.

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http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER

First, Shadow was in that match

Should've known this was coming!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

But my main question is NOW does Bowser beat Ryu? That's all I want to know.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

Has NSMB been discussed? Possible that it boosted Yoshi and Bowser.

Though I wouldn't think of taking Bowser>Squall. Don't think many would. We could be wrong but it'd certainly be a big surprise.

I don't see anything wrong with Terra>Kefka now also. Kefka should've been stronger based on FF6. However he does have unappealing character design, possible that Dissidia helped the other old Square guys a lot more than it helped Kefka. Terra also wore skimpy outfits and had dual personality in the game from the vids I've seen - that's like she was two characters :)

From: Draco1214 | #955
And Sora far under-did Ganondorf on Neku. (By a lot. 39% for Sora on Ganondorf.) We'll call it a draw.

Extrapolating Sora through fodder is an awful idea, considering how awful Sora is at blowing stuff out. I remember people were calling for Sora's head after he "bombed" against Agent 47 and then went on to 55 Alucard.

To play the role of devil's advocate, the "Sora can't blow out fodder" is an oft-parroted phrase that doesn't have any real evidence, it just sticks around because people say it. Agent 47 was new, we have no idea if that was some underperformance by Sora at all. Also Laharl was a night match, and people don't realize how bad Sora is at night. He's one of the characters most affected by the format.

It could be that the performance on Laharl really does foreshadow doom and gloom for Sora. Very debatable though.
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I don't really think 2007 and 2008 Crono are any different. That match with Vincent was going exactly the same way until the ASV hit, and...Vincent sputtered.

It's not the Vincent match that makes me say that so much as the other ones. Crono put up good numbers on Ryu, Alucard, and Amaterasu in 2008- all have impressed in 2009. In 2007 he couldn't break 53% against Zero, which is just awful unless you're BT. As for why he only gained 1.5% on Vincent, you could blame it on the sprite round if you wanted, or the 2007 match being hyped as a Noble Nine judgement day match.

Also, Bowser with 52% on Alucard gives him just under 30% on the current Link- that is quite acceptable to me. Actually, Squall beat Terra by a fair amount more than Bowser beat Kefka, so there's still some room for Squall to be stronger than Bowser while avoiding Terra > Kefka.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X

Yeah, but it probably ends up close either way between Terra and Kefka. There's really no way to avoid that possibility without Bowser creaming Squall, which I don't see happening. We've been getting conflicting numbers all over the place this year, so I don't really know what to think.

Which makes me hope round 3 really lives up to the billing.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

As for Bowser vs. Ryu now- that's very tough. I know I wouldn't take Ryu over Squall, but I probably would be willing to take him over Sora right now. He only did 4% worse on Megaman in 2006, and Kingdom Hearts seems to have fallen a long way from there.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X

Trivia: Missingno is just 2 states (Minnesota and Oregon) away from taking all the Gore states. Yoshi is still maintaining a majority of the Bush states right now.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X

But the thing is...Riku looked pretty bad last year. Axel...I can see him not having much staying power since he's basically a bit role in the series. He'll lose popularity pretty quickly when he's not in the limelight (and he wasn't that great in 358/2 Days anyway).

Actually, let me look at it some more.

Last year, Sora got 56.24% on Fox in round 1 last year. Snake got 67.03% this round. That works out to...62.33% for Snake.

Not sure if that's good or bad.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Hmmm...Snake was projected to get 59.16% in 2006, Sora's best year. 62.28% on Bowser.

...Which works out to a 50.04% win for Bowser.

...Please be that close.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

From: LeonhartFour | #1053
Not sure if that's good or bad.

Looks about average, although it underrates Sora a bit since Fox would've done slightly better on Snake in a 24-hour match.

That's also the case with Bowser/Frog, which I keep seeing brought up. Frog likely would've noticeably better in a 24-hour match. That's one reason why some were calling Bowser's performance disappointing at the time.

That might hold even more true for Kefka. So the Kefka>Terra people might have that to fall back on as well.
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HEY STATS REGS!




YEAH YOU!




How many of you have played at least the first BioShock?
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Curious.

That might hold even more true for Kefka. So the Kefka>Terra people might have that to fall back on as well.

But the same holds true for Terra.

But Kefka would have done much better at night than Terra by the same regard since Squall's night vote is good and Bowser's isn't.

So it's a push, I guess.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

I've beaten Bioshock thrice. I'll get #2 when it's on the bargain bins.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I wouldn't draw much at all from these Missingno matches. Ulti and a lot of people said before the match that Yoshi was a very bad opponent for Missingno, and it's a viewpoint I can easily see. It's what I've been afraid of since Crono lost to Missingno, but it seems that Missingno has proven strong enough to move past this obstacle.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X

Actually, cn brings up a good point. The 12 hour format has probably played a decent part skewing these numbers and making everything look so weird.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

I played about fifteen minutes of it with my brother over Christmas break. Fun game with a great atmosphere, though I get so tense in scary games like that I don't know if I could actually finish it if I wanted to (I can barely play the MGS-games due to the tension of being caught and I LOVE the series, so I dunno). I'd vote for Big Daddy in some circumstances based off of my experience, but not many at this time.

Besides, Ness and I have history.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Besides, Ness and I have history.

Which is why I'll be voting for Big Daddy despite having never played Bioshock.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

Haha, Earthbound's gonna advance guys, the VC-SNES poll and Top 100 List say so. Why don't you listen to me?!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Oh man, this round is over tomorrow, which means it's time for Round 2 Stars and Turds!

It feels like I just got done with round 1!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Big Daddy is great.

While hyping Bioshock, the developers made it very clear that no one in Rapture messes with the Big Daddies. It was hard to see what the fuss was about, as this was an FPS and the Big Daddies seemed like very slow, lumbering brutes that an agile player should dismantle without a problem. I thought they were hyping up nothing. Then I played the game and fought one, and I realized why no one messes with the Big Daddies.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I think this conclusively proves that MissingNo. got some serious rally/stuffing votes to end the last match. He's pulling nowhere near the 200-vote minimum and spikes of up to 260 he had last round.
And rdiculous fact: MissingNo. is about to win with a higher percentage than last match but about 5000 votes less.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #225
Big Daddy is great.

While hyping Bioshock, the developers made it very clear that no one in Rapture messes with the Big Daddies. It was hard to see what the fuss was about, as this was an FPS and the Big Daddies seemed like very slow, lumbering brutes that an agile player should dismantle without a problem. I thought they were hyping up nothing. Then I played the game and fought one, and I realized why no one messes with the Big Daddies.

I immediately bought them as a threat during that first big scene where he shows up and TOTALLY OWNS that Splicer. Scary behemoths.
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Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v
Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING

That scene was pretty much where I stopped. That was tense.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

For those who haven't played the game, let me introduce you to the Big Daddy via the opening cinematic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBV4juasvxk
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I believe the phrase is "awesome".

That makes me think. How many more votes do we get in an average Sunday match versus a weekday one? Because we have 14000 fewer votes today than in Crono/MissingNo.. I realize that that is a ridiculous discrepancy, but does the fact that the last match was a Sunday make up for it at all?

From: nintendogirl1 | #229
For those who haven't played the game, let me introduce you to the Big Daddy via the opening cinematic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBV4juasvxk

Oh, I thought this was gonna be the intro with Andrew Ryan and the HOLY **** RAPTURE LOOKS LIKE BATMAN CARTOON GOTHAM
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This is good...isn't it? - Big motha****ing Boss

A little, but nowhere near 14,000. There's a reason that match is 9,000 votes ahead of any other match this contest.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X

WHOA.

I DO NOT REMEMBER THAT.

I was thinking when you see Big Daddy through the cage/fence. That was gruesome.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Yoshi got ****ED UP SON.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

To compare, MMX's round 2 win had 4,000 fewer votes (5%) than his round 1 win. So this match should have got 86500 if votals follow. But MMX himself had 6000 fewer votes, which was 11.5% less. Forgetting assuming 4% of those missing votes went to Red instead of not being voted (because he beat Red by 4% less than Price) because it doesn't affect the numbers so much and gets complicated. MissingNo. is experiencing 11.1% less vote intake. It's really just his opponent being weaker keeping votals so far down. I don't think we can prove rallying/stuffing from this.

Big Daddy 66.67%

6
Ness 33.33%

3
TOTAL VOTES 9
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Moltar Status: Prediction: Big Daddy > Ness (100/124)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJ-7AYn-KB0

That one HaRR?
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Starts at :24

Big Daddy 61.54%

8
Ness 38.46%

5
TOTAL VOTES 13
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Vote Accepted
Big Daddy 40%

2
Ness 60%

3
TOTAL VOTES 5

14.06% for Missingno
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

go Ness go
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Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 20th
Today's prediction: Ness - 51.18% Status:

Big Daddy 53.33% 8
Ness 46.67% 7
TOTAL VOTES 15

Ness without the board vote?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 97/120 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Crono

Didn't anybody tell Big Daddy that disco is dead?
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(|| ' ' ||) Visio Vestri - Character Battle VIII Fanfiction Project
. /|_|\ http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53091233

God damnit. ****ed by Ness again.
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg

I hate you, Ness.

So much.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Haha. Go Ness Go.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

KP wants me to tell you that he's marking out right now.
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(|| ' ' ||) Visio Vestri - Character Battle VIII Fanfiction Project
. /|_|\ http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53091233

lol Big Daddy right now.

Should get better with time.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 97/120 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Crono

Oops. Well, my preferred character is winning!
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Link's quest to save us from the oppression of the jokes- Round 3: Megaman X

Big Daddy 43.24%

16
Ness 56.76%

21
TOTAL VOTES 37
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"Go and read some more Wikipedia I'm sure they have a good article on spases." - Lil69Leo

Goddammit this sucks.

I'm gonna go play BioShock.
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**** you all.