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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 860

creativename | Posted 3/2/2010 9:43:19 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #157
Remember when Mario was worth 40% on Sephiroth after kicking an entire bracket's face in?


44%.
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vcharon | Posted 3/2/2010 9:43:28 PM | message detail
Obviously Missingno. could not do this even without all the rallying in the world, but obviously Sephiroth has to be putting his foot down with SFF at this point too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:43:51 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #043
Baseless speculation or hopeful speculation either one.

Seriously, what is wrong with you tonight?


I think saying "OH NO SEPHIROTH CAN'T SFF VINCENT HE'S DOOMED" is just incredibly stupid.

Incredibly stupid.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:44:13 PM | message detail
Shame about the one before it, though.

I'll gladly take the worst Oracle pick on that match!
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/2/2010 9:44:30 PM | message detail
he's still getting almost 10% less than expected here. Regardless of what the Seph Defense Squad (aka SDS) tries to argue here, this is a downright atrocious match for Seph. Theres no reason he shouldn't be sffing another "Bad Ass Bishy" from his same game into the ground. This isn't just lack of SFF; its proof that no matter who Seph faces, he will face heavy anti votes. And when you get Heavy Anti Votes + a massively strong joke character with a bandwagon, Seph is in for a world of hurt.

SFF only matters in SFF matches. This performance is only an issue if Sephiroth really is SFFing Vincent and it's hiding Sephiroth's fall in strength. And we already knew Sephiroth would get anti-voted against just about everyone or at least the characters near his strength. He's still 3rd strongest despite the anti-votes.
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CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:45:04 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #045
So just a question for all the Missingno fanboys.

You really think the glitch could 60/40 Vincent?

Do you?


No. Missingno isn't the type to blow out characters, since rallying will only do enough to keep him in the lead, nothing more. He can do 50.5/49.5 on Seph, though.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 3/2/2010 9:45:37 PM | message detail
People are definitely overreacting here. Sephiroth has never shown to be an sff machine, infact it's the opposite. Yet you people expected 10% sff blowout? Really?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:45:40 PM | message detail
Well, let's see here. Jokeymanz time

2007:
Bidoof went from 18.5% on Link to 20.5% on Link. Zelda was added in the second poll.
Mudkip went from 37.6% on Luigi to 47% on Luigi. Ganondorf was added in the second poll.

2008:
Mudkip went from 40.48% on X to 38.64% on X. Mario and Zelda were added to the second poll.

So 2007 Mudkip is the only joke-pokemon that looked better in the second round...and after seeing Liquid/Luigi/Bowser and Mario/X/Zelda I'm okay with blaming a good portion of that on LFF.

Arguing for Sephiroth feels pretty dirty but I'm not feeling the bandwagon thing. On the bright side, Bidoof led Vincent for quite a while so at least we'll get a good laugh at Sephiroth's expense.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:46:01 PM | message detail
When it comes to expecting characters to do a certain amount of SFF, it doesn't really mean much to me. Sephiroth has never conformed to our expectations before anyway. This is the guy who can go from this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2871

to this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2899

For no reason.


Well, it's hardly baseless speculation for KP to say that Sephiroth could be getting SFF on Vincent at this minute. Assuming he finishes at 62% it's not conclusively bad for Seph (especially if you have a high opinion of Crono/Vincent), but it's certainly a negative, in a match where we were expecting absolutely no useful information.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 3/2/2010 9:46:13 PM | message detail
*looks at poll*

Oh good for Vincent, not getting utterly destroyed/doubled.

This match doesnt really say anything about Sephy though.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/2/2010 9:46:14 PM | message detail
Considering I had Seph pegged at 70%+ here, he's got a looooooooong way to go.

Although I can understand the defensiveness of the Seph supporters here, to even go so far as to try and rebound with putting the burden of proof on Snake (and his matches against two essential unknowns along with an overrated rat next match). But hey, if Seph's got nothing to worry about, then Squall/Auron should easily break 40% on Snake come the Sweet Sixteen, right?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:46:16 PM | message detail
This match tells me a lot more about Vinny than it does about Sephiroth, and Sephiroth is going to look fine and dandy by the time this match is over with anyway.
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Hochimihnister | Posted 3/2/2010 9:46:34 PM | message detail
Sephiroth is doing 10% worse than you clowns expected. So what? Your finger-in-the-wind expectations in a SFF match are meaningless. If you thought Seph was going to get 70%, you don't understand contests. I explicitly warned you all right before the match that there was no way Seph was getting 70%. I know you're all eager to see Seph drop and I have Snake > Seph in my bracket. But I am a pragmaticist. That means I am pragmatic.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:48:07 PM | message detail
And Sephiroth is going to be closer to 70% than 60% by the end of this match anyways.
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CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:48:31 PM | message detail
L Block went from 41% on Kirby in Round 1, to 47% on Snake in round 3. If Missingno gets any kinda boost close to that with his already noble nine level strength, Seph is done.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:48:48 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #064
And Sephiroth is going to be closer to 70% than 60% by the end of this match anyways.


I don't know if I'd go that far. I'd say 64-65% is probably his limit, but we'll see.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:48:54 PM | message detail
And I don't think anyone is calling Missingno a lock or anything like that based off of this.
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creativename | Posted 3/2/2010 9:50:02 PM | message detail
The thing about Missingo is that he could easily build a lead of like 2K in the first couple hours alone.

In a 12-hour match, a night match where vote totals are even lower, that's going to be almost impossible for Sephiroth to come back against.

Especially since if he does come back and take the lead, Missingno could easily cheat/rally in the last couple hours and win by a hair. Pretty good chance that's exactly what happens, actually.

It makes sense to worry about Sephiroth. (although as Leon said, it's dumb to use this match as a reason to worry)
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/2/2010 9:50:55 PM | message detail
Yoshi > Missingno
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/2/2010 9:51:37 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #069
Yoshi > Missingno


Why are you continuously trying to bring this up? It's a bigger longshot than Missingno>Sephiroth at this point.

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:51:38 PM | message detail
It blows me away that some people think Missingno can build a 1 or 2k lead on Sephiroth in a night match. I'd give him 200 at maximum. You saw what Sephiroth did after the first update here. Don't see Missingno leading past the first hour, really.
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vcharon | Posted 3/2/2010 9:51:52 PM | message detail
This match doesn't change my opinion or anything. I've thought Sephiroth, and everyone else, was in trouble ever since Crono went down. Joke characters are just too hard to gauge. Missingno. could come out firing on all cylinders with all its rallying again, or like some have suggested since it's "just Yoshi" they may let up a bit and let Yoshi look halfway decent. You can't really be sure what's going to happen with a joke.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/2/2010 9:52:10 PM | message detail
Man, I wish I had your optimism, guys. It's almost like you're more confident with this current result than you would be if Sephiroth had 70%. I'm trying to look at things objectively, and objectively, if Sephiroth loses the board vote this handily to Vincent, he's going to have one hell of a good time with Missingno's board vote.

Remember what happened against Crono? Crono was leading at the freeze before Missingno blasted him with the 10 minute update. The very fact that Missingno was almost tied at the freeze got people excited. Sephiroth will not be tied with Missingno at the freeze. I hope the night vote proves too much, both in terms of favoring Sephiroth and getting the damned Missingno rally effort to bed, but once again, I have serious doubts. If Missingno wins without trouble tomorrow, I consider Seph/Miss a 50/50 affair.
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creativename | Posted 3/2/2010 9:52:11 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #301
if Seph's got nothing to worry about, then Squall/Auron should easily break 40% on Snake come the Sweet Sixteen, right?


Eh? I'm confused. Why wouldn't they? There's a decent chance Squall/Auron breaks 45%. 40% should be a lock. Perhaps I'm just misunderstanding your post.
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KleenExTha | Posted 3/2/2010 9:52:38 PM | message detail
Where is this idea of Missingno getting this ridiculous lead coming from, anyway?

I mean, I know he'll get joke votes and stuff, and Sephiroth gets anti-votes and everything, but this isn't going to be like the finals of 2007.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:53:38 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #074
Eh? I'm confused. Why wouldn't they? There's a decent chance Squall/Auron breaks 45%. 40% should be a lock. Perhaps I'm just misunderstanding your post.


It's tough to understand delusional Snake fanboys, cn. Don't worry about it. =)
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CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:53:41 PM | message detail

From: KleenExTha | #075
Where is this idea of Missingno getting this ridiculous lead coming from, anyway?

I mean, I know he'll get joke votes and stuff, and Sephiroth gets anti-votes and everything, but this isn't going to be like the finals of 2007.


Pokemon + Joke Character Bandwagon + Seph Board Vote

It'll be a couple hundred at the freeze, most likely.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:53:55 PM | message detail
The thing about Missingo is that he could easily build a lead of like 2K in the first couple hours alone.

Man, I really doubt Missingno's going to have that kind of momentum in a night match, 1-on-1.

But if he does, he's got the contest won. Nothing's going to stop it from doing the same thing to Link.
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Hochimihnister | Posted 3/2/2010 9:54:28 PM | message detail
Uh, of course Sephiroth loses the board vote to Vincent. He'll lose the board vote to anyone. And I do mean anyone
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:55:01 PM | message detail
And yeah, the Seph/Missingno match determines who wins the contest, no doubt. If Missingno wins, nothing will stop him from building the bandwagon to take down Link by the finals. If Seph wins, then Link is our winner.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 3/2/2010 9:55:16 PM | message detail
Are you guys gonna go nuts when Cloud only gets 56% on Sephiroth as well? Since Cloud got 66% on him last contest and all. Oh no! Huge Cloud drop! Link to double him!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:55:18 PM | message detail
Luigi came back from down over 900 votes to lead Mudkip by 500 at noon, and Luigi is not exactly known for his night vote. That was obviously pretty depressed vote totals as well - 38k between them.

If Mudkip decides to do what he did against Crono, yes, that would hurt - but that was probably only a swing of 600 or so in those last 40 minutes. That's impressive but we're probably not going to see something like that at 5 AM.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/2/2010 9:55:20 PM | message detail
Eh? I'm confused. Why wouldn't they? There's a decent chance Squall/Auron breaks 45%. 40% should be a lock.

Squall got 42.5% against Snake in 2006. I know people like you like to think Snake didn't boost from SSBB's actual release and MGS4, but I'm not in that camp.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:55:49 PM | message detail
I'm not really sure why people expected Sephiroth to win the board vote against Vincent! I mean, I know Vinny's FFVII, too, but Sephiroth is an anti-vote machine regardless of who he's facing (except for Mario, apparently. I've said since 2007 that Sephiroth is Mario's Kryptonite, it's crazy how he can just dominate him like nobody's business regardless of the setting).
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 3/2/2010 9:55:54 PM | message detail
I really don't see why people were thinking Seph was going to get 70% On Triple Barreled Shotgun(how the hell does THAT work?) here.

This contest is reaaaaally picky on who gets 70% and whatnot. That and we already knew Seph is on the rather short end of the SSF pole.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 3/2/2010 9:56:18 PM | message detail
Uh, of course Sephiroth loses the board vote to Vincent. He'll lose the board vote to anyone. And I do mean anyone

Tanner <_<
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:56:30 PM | message detail
Squall got 42.5% against Snake in 2006. I know people like you like to think Snake didn't boost from SSBB's actual release and MGS4, but I'm not in that camp.

DISSIDIA
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creativename | Posted 3/2/2010 9:56:51 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #351
It blows me away that some people think Missingno can build a 1 or 2k lead on Sephiroth in a night match. I'd give him 200 at maximum. You saw what Sephiroth did after the first update here. Don't see Missingno leading past the first hour, really.


Look at the Link/Snake/Cloud/Crono final (ugh...hate that match, for obvious reason!). Snake builds a lead of 1K over Cloud in no time at all. He gets it up to almost 3K in about 3 hours. And that's with Link and Crono sucking up half the votes.

The difference in 'natural' strength between Cloud/Snake and Sephiroth/Missingno is also probably comparable.

Don't underestimate the power of the early vote.
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KleenExTha | Posted 3/2/2010 9:56:52 PM | message detail
You know what the good news coming out of this match it?

Cloud gets blowout of the round !
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Sephiroth > Snake
KleenExTha | Posted 3/2/2010 9:56:59 PM | message detail
*is
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Sephiroth > Snake
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/2/2010 9:57:02 PM | message detail
If there's anything that Charizard vs. Kratos taught me, it's that this board will side with its bracket over all else. Sephiroth probably doesn't get blown out with the opening vote unless a rally is going on.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/2/2010 9:57:11 PM | message detail
(except for Mario, apparently. I've said since 2007 that Sephiroth is Mario's Kryptonite

I'm not so sure that Sephiroth would still win the board vote over Mario these days. We'll know for sure if this is the case when we see Cloud/Samus in action..
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/2/2010 9:57:31 PM | message detail
damn you inconstant dissidia boost
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:57:37 PM | message detail
If there's anything that Charizard vs. Kratos taught me, it's that this board will side with its bracket over all else.

Man, that was a glitched poll anyway. I wouldn't take anything away from that board vote.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:58:06 PM | message detail
I'm not so sure that Sephiroth would still win the board vote over Mario these days.

He had no reason to do it in 2005 or 2007, and he did!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/2/2010 9:58:43 PM | message detail
A glitched poll favors the board! We're the ones refreshing to see if the poll goes up, look what Simon did to Ezio!

And you all sided with Kratos. Disgusting.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/2/2010 9:59:00 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #091
If there's anything that Charizard vs. Kratos taught me, it's that this board will side with its bracket over all else. Sephiroth probably doesn't get blown out with the opening vote unless a rally is going on.


Brackets shouldn't matter nearly as much by then. Chief and Dante are already gone. Sonic and Sora might be gone by the time that match goes down. That board vote should be ugly.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:59:23 PM | message detail
There's more to the board vote than Board 8!

Board 8 is a bunch of shameless bracket voters though!
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creativename | Posted 3/2/2010 9:59:42 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #358
But if he does, he's got the contest won. Nothing's going to stop it from doing the same thing to Link.


Two things possibly could actually.

1) 24 hour match in the finals. This is big.
2) Joke fatigue. By then the joke could get stale (and probably does I think).
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/2/2010 9:59:54 PM | message detail
He had no reason to do it in 2005 or 2007, and he did!

Back then, FFVII wasn't as weak on this site as it as right now. Right now, FFVII's board vote is even worse than it was in 2007 or 2005 and its day vote has deteriorated to ashes.
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