GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 860

UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/2/2010 9:16:38 PM | message detail
Vincent Awesome Pic Factor at work!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, Missingno etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:29:08 PM | message detail
Vincent's in that match pic?

Where?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:05 PM | message detail
...hahahahahahaha

Forget a rally, Missingno could beat this hunk of crap on strength alone


...How much stronger than Vincent and Crono do you think Sephiroth is?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:11 PM | message detail
Seriously, how is Seph not overkilling this match. We've seen this before and Vincent got fodderized, you can barely see him in the pic, they're from the same game with the exact same kind of appeal. This is pathetic.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:25 PM | message detail
Oh god I almost forgot Vinnie's doing this with that pic
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:27 PM | message detail
I liked Vincent's picture.

Estuans Interius
Ira Vehementi
MISSINGNO!
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Not_Wylvane | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:34 PM | message detail
Fact/Fiction: Assuming Sephiroth beats Missingno, Missingno will outdo Snake's percentage on Sephiroth.
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:44 PM | message detail
We've seen this before and Vincent got fodderized

Man, good luck to anyone doing well in a match with Link, Sephiroth, and Mario.
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ZFS | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:49 PM | message detail
sephiroth causing problems for team kleenex/extha i see !

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vcharon | Posted 3/2/2010 9:33:59 PM | message detail
Fact. Then it will be time to lol at peoples
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:>
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:34:14 PM | message detail
We've seen this before and Vincent got fodderized

LOL 4-WAYS
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/2/2010 9:34:23 PM | message detail
Tag
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redrocket | Posted 3/2/2010 9:35:05 PM | message detail

X-Stats for joke characters is pretty silly.


When have joke characters not held a consistent strength within a single contest? The only counter-example it L-Block's first run, in which he got consistently stronger each round, even against casual-bait Nintendo characters(hello Kirby).

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:35:56 PM | message detail
Man that was an awesome 500th post if I do say so myself.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 3/2/2010 9:36:14 PM | message detail
Seriously, LOL 4-ways only goes so far. This is a friggin' 20% difference we're talking about here. 20%!! That would be like Guybrush putting up 30% on Link. I think we'd go nuts if that happened too.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:36:30 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #009
sephiroth causing problems for team kleenex/extha i see !


why wouldn't you just say "Team KleenExTha"?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/2/2010 9:36:35 PM | message detail
Good to see anything I do getting massively mixed reactions, no matter what it is. Must be my karma in life or something, rofl
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 3/2/2010 9:36:49 PM | message detail
I'm not sure if Missingno can get the strength Lblock had. First, he's not as known as the tetris block. That, and he has less rounds to work with. Also, do people realize crono would be getting 61/39d here as well? Seph still climbing rapidly as well.
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hmmmmmmmm
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/2/2010 9:36:50 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #003
...How much stronger than Vincent and Crono do you think Sephiroth is?


Leonhart, I really don't get you right now. Why exactly does Seph get a free pass from failing to SFF this guy to a level almost everyone expected? Would you be defending Mario if he was only managing 61% on Bowser right now? Sephiroth should not be performing this poorly. To me, it suggests that he's getting anti-voted against Vincent.

VINCENT. The Vincent who's not even IN THE MATCH PIC.

Actually, that might be helping Vincent. Maybe some voters think that gun thing is Missingno.
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ZFS | Posted 3/2/2010 9:37:25 PM | message detail
Because that does not roll off the tongue -- Kleextha, on the other hand !

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:37:35 PM | message detail
If I could remember the e-mail for my KleenExTha account, I'd post with it right now.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/2/2010 9:37:52 PM | message detail
Seriously how do you let Vincent anti-vote you

That's like letting Shadow anti-vote you

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:37:58 PM | message detail
Uh yoblazer I don't know if you've been watching the poll for the past like 20 minutes but Sephiroth is tearing **** apart right now.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:38:02 PM | message detail
you don't need e-mails to log in anymore silly
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:38:26 PM | message detail
Why exactly does Seph get a free pass from failing to SFF this guy to a level almost everyone expected?

Because what we expect Sephiroth to do means exactly nothing.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
KleenExTha | Posted 3/2/2010 9:38:37 PM | message detail
Well, that was easier to remember than I thought.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:38:39 PM | message detail
Seriously, LOL 4-ways only goes so far. This is a friggin' 20% difference we're talking about here. 20%!! That would be like Guybrush putting up 30% on Link. I think we'd go nuts if that happened too.

What happened in that match is that most FFVII supporters realized that Vincent had no chance of advancing, so they voted for Sephiroth trying to put him in first over Link and at least guaranteeing him 2nd.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Sonic_Factor | Posted 3/2/2010 9:38:43 PM | message detail
Leonhart, I really don't get you right now. Why exactly does Seph get a free pass from failing to SFF this guy to a level almost everyone expected?

cause he's failed at it in the past? He's not an sff machine, so what? That won't matter at all versus missingno.
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hmmmmmmmm
vcharon | Posted 3/2/2010 9:39:01 PM | message detail
Wasn't this said in the last topic?

For the record, Sephiroth is projected to get 60.75% on Vincent based on the 2008 stats (though Vincent's probably a bit inflated there).
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:>
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/2/2010 9:39:05 PM | message detail
Sephiroth's got the worst board vote in the whole wide world, and it comes with reasons. He nearly beat Link with the board vote because the board was so enthusiastic about getting Mario over him in 2007. Fourways have obscured it to a degree, but it's there.
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creativename | Posted 3/2/2010 9:39:17 PM | message detail
People are seriously overreacting. There was always a chance Vincent resisted SFF here. This isn't the bottom of an SFF-chain, in a match where he was irrelevant, and competed against 3 of the 4 strongest characters.

I think Missingno/Sephiroth is very, very hard to call. Missingno has at least a 30% chance to win that. But Sephiroth's failure to SFF Vincent - especially during the early vote - doesn't mean much of anything.
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Hochimihnister | Posted 3/2/2010 9:39:55 PM | message detail
61% on Vincent with or without SFF is still way better than 66% on Fox (Which is what Snake got)
CronoBrokeNobl9 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:39:59 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #023
Uh yoblazer I don't know if you've been watching the poll for the past like 20 minutes but Sephiroth is tearing **** apart right now.


he's still getting almost 10% less than expected here. Regardless of what the Seph Defense Squad (aka SDS) tries to argue here, this is a downright atrocious match for Seph. Theres no reason he shouldn't be sffing another "Bad Ass Bishy" from his same game into the ground. This isn't just lack of SFF; its proof that no matter who Seph faces, he will face heavy anti votes. And when you get Heavy Anti Votes + a massively strong joke character with a bandwagon, Seph is in for a world of hurt.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:40:01 PM | message detail
And yeah, Sephiroth couldn't SFF smash Auron or Vivi. I know Vincent is from the same game, and believe me I'm a bit perturbed as to how this isn't at least 10% worse.

But it doesn't mean jack against Missingno.
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vcharon | Posted 3/2/2010 9:40:34 PM | message detail
Sephiroth rockets over 61% wow.
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:>
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 3/2/2010 9:40:38 PM | message detail
If I could remember the e-mail for my KleenExTha account, I'd post with it right now.

Assuming you know the password, you can log in with the universal account name.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/2/2010 9:40:44 PM | message detail
The thing you have to remember here is that Vincent is likely still being SFFd. He could be worth 40% or more on Sephiroth.

Remember when Mario was worth 40% on Sephiroth after kicking an entire bracket's face in?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:40:47 PM | message detail
By the way, my Oracle for this match is going to look GREAT because I called Vinny resisting SFF!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:41:07 PM | message detail

From: Hochimihnister | #032
61% on Vincent with or without SFF is still way better than 66% on Fox (Which is what Snake got)


And honestly at this rate, Sephiroth could hit 65% or so.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:41:23 PM | message detail
The thing you have to remember here is that Vincent is likely still being SFFd. He could be worth 40% or more on Sephiroth.

Baseless speculation or hopeful speculation either one.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/2/2010 9:41:35 PM | message detail
Expectations do matter, at least when you're basing future predictions off the same expectations as before.

Although this match looks a lot less meaningful at 61% than it did at 58%.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
KleenExTha | Posted 3/2/2010 9:41:39 PM | message detail
Sephiroth what a beast
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Sephiroth > Snake
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/2/2010 9:42:10 PM | message detail
Baseless speculation or hopeful speculation either one.

Seriously, what is wrong with you tonight?

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paraboxx | Posted 3/2/2010 9:42:13 PM | message detail
Seph already 3% above where he was at the freeze.

I hope some of you making comments right now take a long, hard look at them in 11 hours...!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 3/2/2010 9:42:41 PM | message detail
So just a question for all the Missingno fanboys.

You really think the glitch could 60/40 Vincent?

Do you?
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 3/2/2010 9:42:51 PM | message detail
hey guess what people, from all stats knowledge there are 3 characters who could be doing this to vincent atm, wonder who they are
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hmmmmmmmm
KleenExTha | Posted 3/2/2010 9:42:58 PM | message detail
KP is a smelly Missingno fanboy, everyone ignore him.
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Sephiroth > Snake
ZFS | Posted 3/2/2010 9:42:59 PM | message detail
Sephiroth what a beast
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Sephiroth > Snake


a monster has been born

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study the past if you would define the future
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/2/2010 9:43:03 PM | message detail
Expectations do matter, at least when you're basing future predictions off the same expectations as before.

When it comes to expecting characters to do a certain amount of SFF, it doesn't really mean much to me. Sephiroth has never conformed to our expectations before anyway. This is the guy who can go from this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2871

to this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2899

For no reason.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/2/2010 9:43:14 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #038
By the way, my Oracle for this match is going to look GREAT because I called Vinny resisting SFF!


I just checked the Oracle, and yours is an incredible pick. Shame about the one before it, though.
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