GameFAQs Contests

From: Hochimihnister | #099
Terrible performance from Squall. New Square has deboosted as KH2 boost has worn off. However, hope is not lost. FF13 boost in one week away! Too bad Vivi misses a huge boost by a day

I expect a massive overperformance by Jecht though, since he is going on FFXIII release date. He'll easily eclipse what Ezio did on Zelda.
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http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/500x_500x_ff_13_x3.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism

If this site had good taste, Jecht would win that match.
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·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·
Is a momentary gleam all you need?

Yeah, slow response.

It's still hard to assume things like that. While the statwork is good Leon, it's still from 2006. You can't blindly assume nothing has changed because you can't really be sure of it. We'll likely never know thanks to Missingno. and the loljoke vote. Crono is just getting older and older, obviously he is dropping off. Auron has looked stronger and stronger each year, though yes those have been in 4-way situations. Characters can take random spills and such. Also have to keep in mind the contest seems a lot different now, it's not easy to get a blowout on anyone. I think even if Tanner was in the bracket he'd break 20% on almost anyone. I'm not exactly sure why it is, but it is. These performances by Squall and Auron don't exactly look very good, but with how the contest is now it's hard to tell if they really are or not.
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:>

I have nothing else to argue but results other than just baseless speculation and potential intangibles. 2006 is the ONLY year where we have a clear read on Auron, period. Every other year, he gets hit with SFF and LFF. If you want to argue Squall is weaker and Auron is stronger just at random, fine. Maybe you're right. It's not what I'm going to base my bracket on though.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Yeah, but most of the advantages you gave Auron are essentially meaningless. Doing better against Cloud? Why does that even matter? It's an SFF match, and SFF isn't dished out in the same degree every time. [...] Doing better against Tidus in an FFX Character poll as opposed to 1-on-1? Again, why does this matter? Heck, even if Auron got 80% on Tidus 1-on-1, why would that matter? [...] The matches with Aerith are close enough to almost be a moot point, plus the differences in format to boot.

Auron/Squall's a fanbase-battle, so seeing them face other Square-characters is plenty relevant. I agree SFF's a fickle mistress in how it can be different in each individual match, but you can still see how characters stand up within their fanbase a lot of times. There were four different examples from both formats, two of which included Square-superstar Cloud, so it's not like they're a terrible gauge here. Accurate, perhaps not, but it's SFF -- it's not entirely meant to me. They're just the direct comparisons we have available. I don't like crossing formats either, which is why I made two different examples with Cloud, but again, these are the direct comparisons we have.


The matches with Sonic...It's very obvious that being announced for Brawl mid-contest definitely helped Sonic out. Without that, Squall probably would've whipped his tail twice like Auron did.

It was obvious for one match -- his match in R2 right after he was announced. Was Sonic barely beating Squall despite Sora in R3 a very obvious sign Sonic boosted? Did Sonic get close enough to Solid in R4 to think he clearly gained some strength? Not really on both counts.


Which brings me to the one thing I hate about this match: As much as I'm looking forward to this match, it's extremely hard to debate because there isn't really much you can point to that doesn't have some sort of reason behind the difference in performance.

I agree here -- there's not a lot of firm evidence, especially with direct comparisons. You posted probably the firmest evidence we got after this that shows why Squall remains the favorite, but that's also three and a half years old at this point and it's looking more and more likely Square's been shaken up to some degree, what with old-FF looking better and KH/CT looking worse. Throw in that Auron did a bit better against Zero than Fenix said while Squall did a bit worse against Akuma than Geno said, and there goes a lot of the 2.45%-advantage Squall has...so, Dissidia or not, if you follow the stats literally (which isn't a good idea, as we both know), this puts it right back into a battle for intangibles. I like the intangibles of FFX > FF8, though you're right that it only meant so much for Aeris and Vincent, so we'll see.

I think we've got a great defining match ahead of us though, lack of firm evidence aside.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Was Sonic barely beating Squall despite Sora in R3 a very obvious sign Sonic boosted? Did Sonic get close enough to Solid in R4 to think he clearly gained some strength?

1. Yes, because Squall would have beaten him without it, unless you're calling for 55/45 Auron or better here, and I don't think you are.
2. I think the fact that Snake and L-Block were fighting neck and neck with rallying to beat each other out might have skewed what Snake gets on Sonic and Squall there, so I don't know. I don't like trusting 2007 L-Block matches for anything though.

Auron/Squall's a fanbase-battle, so seeing them face other Square-characters is plenty relevant. I agree SFF's a fickle mistress in how it can be different in each individual match, but you can still see how characters stand up within their fanbase a lot of times. There were four different examples from both formats, two of which included Square-superstar Cloud, so it's not like they're a terrible gauge here. Accurate, perhaps not, but it's SFF -- it's not entirely meant to me. They're just the direct comparisons we have available. I don't like crossing formats either, which is why I made two different examples with Cloud, but again, these are the direct comparisons we have.

Does Cloud SFF Vincent worse than he did Squall or Auron?

Throw in that Auron did a bit better against Zero than Fenix said while Squall did a bit worse against Akuma than Geno said

I think Zero probably brings that final number back down a bit if he gets a full 24 hour match. Mega Man has a better day vote than Final Fantasy does.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

1. Yes, because Squall would have beaten him without it, unless you're calling for 55/45 Auron or better here, and I don't think you are.

I'm not, but -- and this goes back to the lack of firm evidence and L-Block -- it's hard to take the notion of Squall-with-Sora > Sonic seriously when Squall had Sonic the next round with the only character more hyped in SSBB than him. We've discussed and disagreed on the SSBB-hype plenty, but the point remains that Squall had a great shot by himself and failed. Neither Sonic nor Squall were in contention for advancing, so I don't think L affected them disproportionately either...so Squall-with-Sora > Sonic's hard to take. They're a weird couple of matches for Sonic/Squall though.


Does Cloud SFF Vincent worse than he did Squall or Auron?

Probably, which is why one shouldn't compare JUST matches with Cloud. There are two different comparisons with Cloud plus a comparison with Aeris and Tidus, with the Aeris-one being probably the most fair of them. You can also look at other SFF-matches they've had against differing opponents (Sora and Sephiroth come to mind) to get a better feel of how they stand in their fanbase. Really, that's all you can hope to get from SFF-matches.


I think Zero probably brings that final number back down a bit if he gets a full 24 hour match. Mega Man has a better day vote than Final Fantasy does.

Fair enough, but likewise, Street Fighter has a stronger night than day, so Akuma ought to get some more credit too.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Street Fighter has a stronger night than day, so Akuma ought to get some more credit too.

So does Final Fantasy VIII. Akuma got to avoid SF's terrible morning vote though, which is SF's worst time and worse than anything Squall has to deal with.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/b44.jpg

This is the second time Squall has done pretty poorly with that match pic. Maybe face shots aren't his best friend, and let's not even get started about smilin' face shots!
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I'm not a big fan of that match pic in the first place, but I can't really argue that it has any sort of effect on him. It looks just like him, and it's not a bad pic by any means.

The thought did occur to me though!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

I like his KH model the most. He should get a CoM sprite against Auron, so no complaints from me.
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Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Ha, 65.29% hour for Squall there.

Man, I love FFVI's ASV.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Wow great job Squall, too bad most people had you at 70%+ for the entire match
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Dissidia, guys! Dissidia!

*backpedals out of topic*
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Man, my Oracle is so awful here. I'm just waiting for Sephiroth to quadruple the Invisible Vincent after everyone lowballs their predictions.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

So does Final Fantasy VIII. Akuma got to avoid SF's terrible morning vote though, which is SF's worst time and worse than anything Squall has to deal with.

Whoops, my bad. Let's see what happened with them in 2007:

Akuma against Squall-with-Aeris twelve hours into it: 39.31%
Akuma against Squall-with-Aeris at the end of the match: 39.48%

Unless Aeris affected the trends, it looks like they did just about the same with a slight advantage for Akuma in the day-half. I stand corrected.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

The silver lining here, though, is that Squall can still do well against Auron and then respectably against a Snake who might beat Sephiroth and do well on Cloud. Revan may look very worthy of a return trip if the pieces stack into place.
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I notice nothing was said about Cloud doing well on Link...

...his dominance really is that assumed, I guess!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

From: PartOfYourWorld | #111
I like his KH model the most. He should get a CoM sprite against Auron, so no complaints from me.

Already taken care of

http://i47.tinypic.com/10z4ehz.png
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee

Surprised no one has brought this up yet:

http://www.twitter.com/GameFAQs

For more information on that Twitter account, go here:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=6&topic=53729227

Right now, that Twitter account gives hourly updates of the match results.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

I guess Cloud can muster his best performance in a few years, which should help. Either way, Revan should still finish ahead of both Akuma and Ken no matter what happens. Heck, if Squall redeems himself, gets some SFF help, and gets a great 55/45 on Auron, Revan might not even be that far from Aeris in the stats.
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

It seems Squall can do a doubling.Nice.Still his match against Auron will be really close.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Squall won't get the doubling; 65% is probably his best bet.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

So well...That is okay.Personally I like both Auron and Squall and whoenever wins in their match it will be cool.I will vote for Squall because of bracket but I would like Auron to advance.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

I just realized that this marks our second NRT guy that got screwed in the first round. Poor Cid, poor Revan.

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http://i46.tinypic.com/v4o0mx.jpg
best sig bet EVER

Leonhart Presents: FUN WITH NUMBERS!

Let's just assume for a moment that Squall = Auron and Squall finishes with 64%, here's what you get from this part of the bracket:

Squall - 50.00%
Auron - 50.00%
Zero - 43.31%
Aerith Gainsborough - 42.36%
Terra - 36.00%
Darth Revan - 33.21%
Akuma - 31.99%
Marcus Fenix - 28.44%

Which means that Terra gets 42.49% on Aerith and 41.56% on Zero. Nobody in their right mind would have ever expected Terra to get 40% on those two guys pre-contest!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Man, Terra's just been crumbling since the ASV started. Maybe Squall won't completely embarrass himself after all.

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CURRENT BRACKET SCORE: 102.
Next five choices: Squall, Sephiroth, Crono, Big Daddy, Gordon

Damn ASV.

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i dunno

Let's do some more FUN WITH NUMBERS!

Let's assume Squall = Bowser = Auron (since Kefka's involved there), here's what we get!

Squall - 50.00%
Auron - 50.00%
Bowser - 50.00%
Zero - 43.31%
Aerith - 42.36%
Kefka - 38.32%
Frog - 36.78%
Terra - 36.00%
Darth Revan - 33.21%
Akuma - 31.99%
Arthas Menethil - 30.22%
Marcus Fenix - 28.44%

Frog vs. Terra: A tossup?! Heck, if Squall ends up decently ahead of Bowser, then Terra becomes the favorite. By this, Kefka gets 45.23% on Aerith and 44.24% on Zero. He gets 53.03% on Terra, too!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

cwumble'd
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
Skipping school to bungee jump will get you suspended.

More FUN WITH NUMBERS! Let's assume Frog = Magus and see what happens!
Squall - 50.00%
Auron - 50.00%
Bowser - 50.00%
Alucard - 44.33%
Zero - 43.31%
Aerith - 42.36%
Kefka - 38.32%
Frog - 36.78%
Magus - 36.78%
Terra - 36.00%
Darth Revan - 33.21%
Akuma - 31.99%
Arthas Menethil - 30.22%
Marcus Fenix - 28.44%

Alucard > Zero and Aerith? Hmmm...
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I missed all the chat, but from the looks of the poll this is horrible for squall ya? Auron might eat him.
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hmmmmmmmm

Alucard a high mid-card?

Alright.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 89/112 - Today's Winners: Solid Snake and Pikachu

Ok, we get it Leon, geez...
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee

More fun with less numbers!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Hmmm...If we assume Terra = Kefka, and if we assume Squall/Auron based on 2006, we get this! Heck, let's assume Bowser = Luigi while we're at it! And how about Ken = Akuma?!

Squall - 50.00%
Auron - 47.55%
Bowser - 46.97%
Luigi - 46.97%
Ganondorf - 44.22%
Alucard - 41.64%
Zero - 41.19%
Aerith - 40.28%
Amaterasu - 37.96%
Mewtwo - 36.57%
Kefka - 36.00%
Terra - 36.00%
Shadow the Hedgehog - 36.00%
Frog - 34.55%
Magus - 34.55%
Darth Revan - 33.21%
Meta Knight - 32.22%
Akuma - 31.99%
Ken Masters - 31.99%
Albert Wesker - 31.79%
Arthas Menethil - 30.22%
Thrall - 29.81%
Marcus Fenix - 27.05%

Yeehaw!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

More seriously though, I'd be more comfortable assuming Kefka = Terra than Bowser = Auron/Squall. Still crazy what kinds of shake-ups we may be in for though.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

I think squall is screwed atm. Even if by 1%. Auron looked beast.

Actually, the one thing that stands out there is that it makes Luigi's group look way too strong.

I don't really think Luigi and Bowser are in Squall and Auron's league, personally.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

Leon trying to usurp overall #1 poster statistics!
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·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·
Is a momentary gleam all you need?

Aw yeah Terra! Quite a leg up from <20% on Zelda. Auron > Squall lives, as well. Good stuff. Haven't read anything else yet, but I want to offer my arguments about today.

But of course the biggest thing about this match is how awesome it makes Bowser look. Squall's going to end up doing a bit better on Terra than Bowser did on Kefka. We can say with a high degree of confidence that Kefka > Terra and it probably isn't close, plus there might be some SFF here. (I don't think so, and didn't think there would be before the match, but it's a possibility.) This makes Bowser look better than Squall, which is enough to paste Sora into the ground.

In fact, after this match I don't think there's any reason why Bowser should not be the easy favorite. The last remaining question for that match was how impressive Bowser's performance really was, since we know Sora performed like crap. So let us go over the reasons why Bowser > Sora:

The metatrends of
1) Nintendo meeting or exceeding expectations (The Boost 2).
2) New Square flopping left and right (literally every new Square character).

But those are pretty general. Let's go specific.
3) The first round matches. Sora/Midna and Bowser/Frog were about even in terms of percentages. But
3a) Frog beat Midna easily in the vote in poll with more Square characters than Nintendo characters. Yeah, yeah, vote-in twelve way or whatever, but it Frog won with 58% Clearly pointing to Frog > Midna.
3b) Frog was clearly ahead of Midna in 2007. Direct matches on Scorpion make this easy to see. And before anybody (read:KP) brings up Nintendo/ToS LFF, I point you to Sackboy/Kratos Aurion. Kratos wasn't LFFing Midna, he just sucks.
3c) The *only* match in Midna's favor is the LFF match where she nearly beat Mewtwo. That is admittedly hard to explain but it is a Zelda character going against fellow Nintendo. We saw what Zelda was able to do to Mario compared to Luigi; it is not too much of a stretch to imagine that Midna got a little extra there.

4) Their second round matches.
4a) Obviously Sora/Laharl is enormously pathetic - Yoshi, Kirby, and Dante were all around 73-75% on Laharl while Sora only managed 68%. Yes, it was a night match, and Sora would have cleared 70% in the day and maybe pushed even higher. But guess what? Bowser/Sora is a night match as well, so it's Sora's night strength that is relevant. And that is clearly lacking.
4b) But Laharl boosted, so Sora's performance is acceptable, you cry. No it isn't. Look at how Sora/Neku stacks up and how Ganondorf/Neku went last year, and you get Sora at 39% on Ganondorf. That's *still* pathetic.
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Mustache...and Green...

4c) And then we get to Bowser. Bowser/Arthas has Bowser about equal to Crono (and Alucard and Arthas are quite possibly underrated in that scenario), but that's a lot of fourway matches to go through and I'm okay with people dismissing it. You can prove a lot of things by using that many fourway matches, and we even had L-Block involved.
4d) So we ignore that Bowser looks awesome through Arthas and look at Kefka instead. Obviously one could discredit 63% on Kefka based on what we've seen from Kefka in the past, but I've argued that we're seeing a different Kefka (and Cecil and Terra) this year, and, now, with Terra currently at 36% on Squall, I think there's enough evidence to clearly support my version of things. Last time we saw Terra and Kefka in a contest, Kefka was worth about 59% on Terra. I saw a lot of folks - especially before the Terra/Revan match - talking about how Kefka stood to gain a lot more than Terra from Dissidia because he's awesome in it, but we'll let that slide and say that they stayed relatively the same. Then we end up with Bowser at about 57% on Squall, which I think we can all agree is enough to beat Sora into a pulp. Even if you're unwilling to go quite that far (ie, you think the gap between Terra and Kefka has narrowed for some reason), there's an awful lot of legroom for Bowser.

Finally, there's one more point I want to address, that yoblazer keeps bringing up - Sora's perceived "clutchness."
5) Yes, he dominated HK when we didn't expect him too (fooled by an awful performance against Aerith) and Alucard when only half of us expected him too (fooled by Magus/Ganondorf/Alucard). But
5a) Sora's had three close matches and lost all three. Riku's had two close matches and lost one, and won the other thanks to Snake. Axel's had one close match and lost it. These do not seem like "clutch" performances to me.
5b) Let's take a closer look at Sora's three close matches with Squall. In one, Squall was dealing with Aerith; in another, the excellent Smilin' Squall; in the third, Cloud. Obviously Sora is new Square too, but his extremely different trends - in particular, his huge weakness in Europe and strength in the NA day vote - shows he follows a somewhat different path. Obviously he got SFF'd by Cloud last year, but most of us expected him to beat Squall (and often Mewtwo as well). In the one match where Squall didn't have anyone weighing him down (except perhaps Snake, but I think that's discredited by now), Squall won easily. How impressive is Sora once we remove the disadvantages of his opponents? 56% on Fox. 62% on Midna. 68% on Laharl. Not very.

If you made it all the way through I applaud you. I should note that my last tl;dr post was for Kefka beating Arthas.
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Mustache...and Green...

Who'd you take, lightning or Terra. I'd take Lightning will all the new hype.
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hmmmmmmmm

We can say with a high degree of confidence that Kefka > Terra and it probably isn't close

I don't know about this.

Then we end up with Bowser at about 57% on Squall

Mostly because it leads to this.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Vincent actually has the best bracket placement of all the New Square characters. No opportunity for him to suck!

With his 2nd match agains Sephiroth?Are you kidding?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Just as a hint, Squall hit 65.28% in the hour from 15:00 and 66.24% from 16:00.

He's looking to make it look slightly more impressive at least.
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But nothing like what we were expecting.

The Terra > Kefka train crashed, burned, and exploded five years ago.

And I'm sorry I doubted you, Terra. I had an Oracle of 35% before I saw the picture and went down to 33%. Alas!
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Mustache...and Green...

I agree that Sora/Bowser should at least by anyone's game, if not Bowser being the favourite.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 89/112 - Today's Winners: Solid Snake and Pikachu

The Terra > Kefka train crashed, burned, and exploded five years ago.

I never said Kefka wouldn't win. It just wouldn't be 60/40 like 2005 implies because it leads to things like Kefka and Frog getting 45% on Squall, and depending on how Squall/Auron goes, you even have the possibility of Kefka > Aerith and/or Zero.

I'm sure there are some people who have no problems with this preferentially, but let's be realistic here!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."