GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Hockey Discussion - Part 856

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2010 1:40:03 PM | message detail
I really don't care how early it is or that the game will be over by the time we get to this, but by golly, hockey has EARNED itself a stats topic.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, Missingno etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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VeiNZ | Posted 2/28/2010 1:40:41 PM | message detail
sweet
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Geech
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/28/2010 2:36:34 PM | message detail
U.S.A.! U.S.A.! U.S.A.! U.S.A.!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/28/2010 2:37:49 PM | message detail
haha oh lord
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jck4332 | Posted 2/28/2010 2:39:03 PM | message detail
Hockey sucks.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/28/2010 2:40:11 PM | message detail
YOU suck.
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Ayuyu | Posted 2/28/2010 2:41:06 PM | message detail
Hockey is just another medal opportunity, nothing more.
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No, I'm not Ayvuir.
jck4332 | Posted 2/28/2010 2:42:31 PM | message detail
YOU suck.

http://i282.photobucket.com/albums/kk279/commaLamma/NO_U.jpg
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/28/2010 2:42:52 PM | message detail
USA IS FIGHTING FOR DANTE

THE AMERICAN WAY

APPLE PIE

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Ayuyu | Posted 2/28/2010 2:43:20 PM | message detail
Lol Dante :(
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No, I'm not Ayvuir.
Ayuyu | Posted 2/28/2010 2:53:32 PM | message detail
WIN!
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No, I'm not Ayvuir.
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/28/2010 4:00:43 PM | message detail
This one is better.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:22:20 PM | message detail
Magus and Kefka's most laughable chokes were in 4-ways though!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:23:14 PM | message detail
Everyone jumping off the Dante in debatable matches train means he's going to win one next year.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 2/28/2010 4:23:41 PM | message detail
Tag
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/28/2010 4:24:12 PM | message detail
Meh. There's no evidence whatsoever this picture actually hurts him.

No offense, creativename, but I agree with KH.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/28/2010 4:24:18 PM | message detail
The real person who's screwed in this is Leon. This is what, the 4th year he's gonna run into a fellow Capcom badass?
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:24:39 PM | message detail
So many years in these contests and STILL I don't have a damn clue how they work.I will never learn...
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/28/2010 4:24:54 PM | message detail
Sorry, I never saw this topic. Closing mine for the AWESOME HOCKEY FACTOR'D.
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Articuno2001 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:25:15 PM | message detail
best stats topix
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99/108 in Character Battle 2010 | Current Pick: Dante
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/28/2010 4:25:22 PM | message detail
Huh? People blasted on Solid **** from the start. That basically insta-proved pic factor to everybody.

Selective contest memory, I see. I can think of a few stat topic regulars from the start (Chichiri, HM off the top of my head - the former especially) that argued pics didn't matter *specifically* against Solid ****. Again, for years. It took until seeing Bowser in 2k6 for a consensus to actually be built.

Trust me. I would remember this.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2010 4:25:54 PM | message detail

From: KleenexTissue50 | #014
Everyone jumping off the Dante in debatable matches train means he's going to win one next year.


Perhaps, but I'll be very shy about backing him in anything debatable. I don't think he's got anything on the horizon, while many of those around him do. Ryu's got SSFIV, and all of the Nintendo guys might be in for a big year (Galaxy 2, Other M, Zelda Wii, and the new Pokemon unveiling could make another very strong Nintendo year). If Kingdom Hearts III is unveiled in the next 12 months, I'll probably take Sora over him as well.
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creativename | Posted 2/28/2010 4:26:28 PM | message detail
Hmm...no quote button in gamefox for closed topics. Makes sense, but I'd use it and then copy&paste.

No. Vincent was never going to lose that match, or the one preceding it.

Well yeah, obviously, the Kerrigan debate was beyond absurdly. The Kerrigan backers dragged this topic through some of its darkest days, sheesh! Still boggles my mind. I guess they were still stuck on Starcraft-Halo.

But you can't say "Vincent was never going to lost that match" - I mean, obviously he wasn't actually going to lose, but pre-contest you had to say there was somewhat of a chance. Dante was no Kerrigan.
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LOLContests | Posted 2/28/2010 4:26:40 PM | message detail
People are comparing this to Solid ****?

.......What.

Seriously. I've never played DMC2, but I was certainly around when it was released, and it was regarded as a mediocre, disappointing sequel, not the abomination people are making it out to be. It's no Sonic 2006 people!
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Yesmar
RPGuy96 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:26:46 PM | message detail
Dante didn't really deserve to be the huge favorite that he was before the match, anyway. Nothing that he's done over the last two years was beyond Ryu's capabilities.

(Lest you think this is revisionist history I posted something to this effect 10 minutes before the match.)
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FFDragon | Posted 2/28/2010 4:27:11 PM | message detail
There's a distinct difference in a blob of pixels from the eighties and a boxart pic from the double Os.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/28/2010 4:27:52 PM | message detail
I'm not comparing this to the extent of Solid **** (Dante is certainly not underperforming massively here). But in margins as close as this, it could easily make the difference.
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creativename | Posted 2/28/2010 4:28:54 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #101
Selective contest memory, I see. I can think of a few stat topic regulars from the start (Chichiri, HM off the top of my head - the former especially) that argued pics didn't matter *specifically* against Solid ****. Again, for years. It took until seeing Bowser in 2k6 for a consensus to actually be built.

Trust me. I would remember this.


No. A couple people saying something does not mean the very clear consensus was in favor of Solid **** having a huge effect.

And comparing this to Solid **** in the first place is madness.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/28/2010 4:29:57 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #024
People are comparing this to Solid ****?

.......What.

Seriously. I've never played DMC2, but I was certainly around when it was released, and it was regarded as a mediocre, disappointing sequel, not the abomination people are making it out to be. It's no Sonic 2006 people!


YES IT IS.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/28/2010 4:31:20 PM | message detail
No, DMC2 is really, REALLY bad. Worst 20 bucks I've ever spent.
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Currently NOT on the CBVIII Leaderboard v_v
Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING
creativename | Posted 2/28/2010 4:31:21 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #107
I'm not comparing this to the extent of Solid **** (Dante is certainly not underperforming massively here). But in margins as close as this, it could easily make the difference.


In margins in close as this, for all we know Ryu's pic is holding him back. It's not like Ryu's pic is super-special-badass.

There's equal evidence to believe Ryu is being hurt asymmetrically, as there is to believe Dante is.

Using pic as an excuse for Dante just makes Dante look sorrier, honestly. Why? It doesn't make sense.
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creativename | Posted 2/28/2010 4:32:23 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #108
No. A couple people saying something does not mean the very clear consensus was in favor of Solid **** having a huge effect


Whoops - that should be "very clear consensus was *not* in favor..."
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/28/2010 4:34:01 PM | message detail
I never argued there was a consensus! There wasn't one way or the other - that was the entire point. Any other opinion is revisionist history.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2010 4:34:26 PM | message detail
I've been a proponent of Pic Factor for years. I don't think most voters are as maniacally hardcore and nerdy about this stuff as we are; they don't have super special <3 tiers and they don't write paragraphs ranking their favorite characters and trying to justify why #3 on the list is just thaaaaaat much better than #7. A good or bad picture can easily affect the percentages. Heck, I think that if Peach had gotten an ugly pic while Gordon grabbed HL2 box art, he could have hit 55%.

The problem is, for this specific instance, Dante just doesn't look that bad. He looks freakin' badass! Didn't Zack tear Yuna in half with a dark and brooding picture like that?
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 2/28/2010 4:34:41 PM | message detail
Ryu is now leading? Damn.
I'm now 1/6 in debatable matches in round 2. Great.
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Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 17th
Today's prediction: Dante - 52.17% Status: crap
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:35:56 PM | message detail
I'm now 1/6 in debatable matches in round 2.

Better than being 0/6!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/28/2010 4:36:39 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #033
I've been a proponent of Pic Factor for years. I don't think most voters are as maniacally hardcore and nerdy about this stuff as we are; they don't have super special <3 tiers and they don't write paragraphs ranking their favorite characters and trying to justify why #3 on the list is just thaaaaaat much better than #7. A good or bad picture can easily affect the percentages. Heck, I think that if Peach had gotten an ugly pic while Gordon grabbed HL2 box art, he could have hit 55%.

The problem is, for this specific instance, Dante just doesn't look that bad. He looks freakin' badass! Didn't Zack tear Yuna in half with a dark and brooding picture like that?


Thats what I'm saying. Its cool, but not not in the DMC3/4 kind of cool. Instead of the smiling, corny jokester you got the brooding badass. Its not THAT bad of a picture really.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/28/2010 4:36:40 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/28/2010 4:37:06 PM | message detail

From: KleenexTissue50 | #035
I'm now 1/6 in debatable matches in round 2.

Better than being 0/6!


Right, forgot to ask Kleenex. Who do you have winning Big Daddy/Ness?
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Dante > Cloud: ITS NOT HAPPENING
ansem120 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:37:18 PM | message detail
Did Dante just make 2 cuts?
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charmander6000 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:37:33 PM | message detail
Canada is too busy celebrating
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Character Battle VIII - 85/108 - Today's Winners: Leon and Ryu
Achromatic | Posted 2/28/2010 4:37:39 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #038
Wait.... people think this has something to do with the picture?

The hell is wrong with you morons


BT calling other people dumb is rich.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2010 4:37:43 PM | message detail
Sound the alarms.
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ZackFAQs | Posted 2/28/2010 4:37:52 PM | message detail
A little late, but...

Ugh, yes. The Dante people were insufferable. Kerrigan backer residue, I suppose, or something.

No offense, but the Vincent supporters were just as bad, if not worse.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 2/28/2010 4:38:08 PM | message detail
he's gonna need bigger cuts than that to survive Ryu's upcoming evening vote
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Today's prediction: Dante - 52.17% Status: Crap
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:38:47 PM | message detail
Time to ride some rockets and drive motorcycles up towers and ****
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LOLContests | Posted 2/28/2010 4:38:56 PM | message detail
Wasn't this the same topic that acted like FFIV getting box art was some horrible disadvantage, because no one cares about that, but now all of a sudden it's obvious that's what the pic is from?

Not that that matters since no one has said how Dante's physical character design has to do with how the game is bad. Would Sonic undeperform with a Sonic 2006 pic or would Fox underperform with a SFA pic?
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Yesmar
charmander6000 | Posted 2/28/2010 4:38:59 PM | message detail
Yeah the Vincent supporters saying that Vincent would get 60% were crazy.
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Character Battle VIII - 85/108 - Today's Winners: Leon and Ryu
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/28/2010 4:40:01 PM | message detail
Oh, and the idea of the Pic Factor being legit or not was debated in this topic for years. There was never a consensus on that matter.
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LOLContests | Posted 2/28/2010 4:40:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, claiming that the *Vincent* backers were the put upon posters is just revisionist history to an enormous degree.
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Yesmar