GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 852

ZFS | Posted 2/26/2010 9:45:29 PM | message detail
Wait, are some people here actually entertaining the idea of Samus beating Cloud? Fun times in the stats topix.

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:45:36 PM | message detail
I am saying people actually cared about Chrono Trigger in 2003. Looking at the two games contests, and if you want to trust the four ways to be truthful in that, then CT has fallen off big time.

Yeah, but we're talking about in 2005 before CT really started falling off. 2006 was the big dropoff year.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 2/26/2010 9:46:08 PM | message detail
Ganon being 'nothing but good'? Letting Ken get 36% on you in the day seems kinda chumptastic to me, but we'll see how he does against Sonic!

I agree to an extent, but in all fairness, Ganondorf had one of the worst match pictures of the contest in his match against Ken. Elevator Ganon is almost as bad as Lettuce Kefka, if you ask me!


So...About Captain Falcon vs Riku...
Falcon is the underdog right?
I'm hoping for Falcon to pull off a win, but...I somehow doubt it.


Riku is definitely the favorite, but Falcon does have a chance; after all, Riku laid a bit of an egg in R1. But I'm rather biased, as the good Captain is one of my favorite video game characters ever.

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CURRENT BRACKET SCORE: 88.
Characters who hurt my bracket most: Nathan Drake, Liquid, Crono, Kratos
red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:46:31 PM | message detail
Magus probably fell off more between 2005 and 2007 than between 2003 and 2005, even taking his 35% on Link at face value. He was overrated, yes, but he had legitimate strength too (would have beaten Knuckles in an Ulti-style blowout).
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:46:35 PM | message detail
Or everyone underrated SM64 because it got SFFed hard by OoT!

Time | Ridley | Chris
00:05 | 63.56% | 66.19%
00:10 | 64.33% | 67.33%
00:15 | 65.88% | 68.17%
00:20 | 65.84% | 67.63%
00:25 | 66.07% | 67.89%
00:30 | 66.34% | 68.07%
00:35 | 66.53% | 68.29%
00:40 | 66.74% | 68.38%
00:45 | 66.92% | 68.47%
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Not Wylvane
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/26/2010 9:46:41 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #051
Wait, are some people here actually entertaining the idea of Samus beating Cloud? Fun times in the stats topix.


Samus over Cloud or Cloud over Link, I have no idea. All this energy should be saved for Sunday's match.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:46:44 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #049
And you can say it's a small sample pool all you want, but it all pointed to the same result, the one we got!

And no, the stats aren't perfect, but there are telltale signs you can gather when everyone related to a particular character starts underperforming. Just saying there are rapid shifts in strength from year to year doesn't explain anything, and it seems to be contrary to what we've seen in 8 contests.


I think it explains more than you guys want to admit. Everything points to CT itself going down, Auron has seemingly gained in strength while Tidus has fallen off. Ganondorf has done fine, which outside of "he will break the nn lol" makes you think up another scenario to explain it away so "magus is a fraud" remains true. He wasnt a fraud back then: He has strength, I can buy if you say "Magus wasnt QUITE as strong as the result", that's true. But acting like he was anywhere near in danger of losing to knuckles in 2003 is quite... silly.
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Why does Final Fantasy 7 win every year? Geesh you'd think people would give Zelda a try.
Sir Chris
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:46:53 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #051
Wait, are some people here actually entertaining the idea of Samus beating Cloud? Fun times in the stats topix.


Apparently, Chris couldn't beat Jill or something. I dunno.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:47:35 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #050
I never hyped him to break anything, to be fair. Just because you stat heads over rely on stats and get burned often, forcing you to yell and shout at the characters who you think betrayed you, doesn't mean you are correct tbh.

I agree with your reasoning, but uh sometime rudimentary knowledge is also required

Like not thinking 2010 Alucard>2004 Alucard


Well, we'll see, right? I mean I can't prove I am right at this moment, but if Link goes on to bust faces and Alucard has 28%~ on the winner of the contest, then um... I'll be vindicated, no?
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Dragon Quest V is awesome
Sir Chris
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:47:52 PM | message detail
I will entertain both Samus > Cloud and Cloud > Link. But only if I can do both of them at once. Not individually.

I think you know where I'm going with this.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/26/2010 9:48:38 PM | message detail
Elevator Ganon

Aww, great... Why do I feel like I'm about to crack up again...?
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ZFS | Posted 2/26/2010 9:48:41 PM | message detail
Samus over Cloud or Cloud over Link, I have no idea. All this energy should be saved for Sunday's match.

I'm not sure how it's even possible to have this match produce either of those ideas! Agree about the Sunday match, though -- that's the match of the contest.

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
Haguile | Posted 2/26/2010 9:49:09 PM | message detail

Riku is definitely the favorite, but Falcon does have a chance; after all, Riku laid a bit of an egg in R1. But I'm rather biased, as the good Captain is one of my favorite video game characters ever.


Yeah, I'm biased as well. The only reason I still got hope is that there will be no monstrous KH ASV tomorrow.
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JechtFAQS.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/26/2010 9:49:20 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #058
Apparently, Chris couldn't beat Jill or something. I dunno.


He can't. Jill would unlock his face.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:49:31 PM | message detail
He has strength, I can buy if you say "Magus wasnt QUITE as strong as the result", that's true. But acting like he was anywhere near in danger of losing to knuckles in 2003 is quite... silly.

I never said he would've lost to Knuckles in 2003. 2003 was Knux's worst year pre-4ways, where Snake put up like 63% on him or something. He wouldn't have broken 60% on him in 2003 like the stats say either.

Ganondorf has done fine, which outside of "he will break the nn lol" makes you think up another scenario to explain it away so "magus is a fraud" remains true.

I never touted Ganondorf as a Noble Nine breaker, and I never will.

Magus was never a legit 35% on Link, Noble-Nine breaker, so in a sense, he was a fraud.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:49:56 PM | message detail
Mario > Samus finals aw yeah

Only appropriate that the two N9ers to have never lost to any non-N9er be in the finals!
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Not Wylvane
red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:50:08 PM | message detail
What's wrong with thinking 2010 Alucard is on par with 2004 Alucard? One match against Auron in 2006- a year that was closer to 2004 than now?

Alucard just posted a higher score on Link than he did on Sephiroth in 2003- statistically it's probably the most impressive performance of his contest career. Of course hochi's alternative explanation is much more fun to think about!
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Hochimihnister | Posted 2/26/2010 9:50:09 PM | message detail
The only reason I still got hope is that there will be no monstrous KH ASV tomorrow


It will still be there, just dispersed throughout the whole day. Not that it matters, Captain Fodder is getting his teeth kicked in tomorrow
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:50:44 PM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #059
Well, we'll see, right? I mean I can't prove I am right at this moment, but if Link goes on to bust faces and Alucard has 28%~ on the winner of the contest, then um... I'll be vindicated, no?


Link winning the contest like everyone expects isn't going to prove much of anything! I'm just saying 71% on Alucard wasn't a superstar performance. It was fine, it was what we should have expected. There's nothing outstanding about it though.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:51:09 PM | message detail
Time | Ridley | Chris
00:05 | 63.56% | 66.19%
00:10 | 64.33% | 67.33%
00:15 | 65.88% | 68.17%
00:20 | 65.84% | 67.63%
00:25 | 66.07% | 67.89%
00:30 | 66.34% | 68.07%
00:35 | 66.53% | 68.29%
00:40 | 66.74% | 68.38%
00:45 | 66.92% | 68.47%
00:50 | 67.12% | 68.34%

Chris cutting percentage!
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Not Wylvane
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:51:17 PM | message detail
28% on Link isn't necessarily that good! It's not if Link wins the contest, it's how other people do in relation to Link that will prove how good Alucard is.

Which isn't so great considering Link's got a pile of SFF before the finals, but Cloud's half-bracket should be reliable... assuming the Best Upset Ever takes place.
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Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:51:40 PM | message detail
Well when you use the word fraud it makes it seem like he is much weaker than he showed, much weaker. You could run the same poll on this site once a week for a year and every day you ran it I bet there would be some differences in the poll (assuming everyone who votes in one poll votes the same way int he next) just because the site gets so many unique users, its just different week to week, much less through the years. Trying to use more recent results to call into question past results is in itself logically bad.
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The difference between arrogance and confidence is confidence acts rather than speaks.
Sir Chris
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:52:17 PM | message detail
Best Upset Ever takes place.

I didn't know you were on the Missingno > Snake train!
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Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:52:50 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #069
Link winning the contest like everyone expects isn't going to prove much of anything! I'm just saying 71% on Alucard wasn't a superstar performance. It was fine, it was what we should have expected. There's nothing outstanding about it though.


Yeah but, maybe this was just me, but I didn't have anyone else I was impressed with. I picked him as the star of the round because to me that performance proved he was going to win the contest. I don't like to open up the stats topic and have an opinion be attacked in it casually when we had a topic for the podcast for people to call into question my sanity tbh.
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Dragon Quest V is awesome
Sir Chris
red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:52:54 PM | message detail
Missingno > Snake wouldn't be an upset, as he'd have already beaten Sephiroth at that point.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:53:05 PM | message detail
Well when you use the word fraud it makes it seem like he is much weaker than he showed, much weaker.

He was a good bit weaker than he showed. People were touting him as someone who could beat Sonic or Snake, and he probably never was at that level.

Which qualifies him as a fraud in my book.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:53:13 PM | message detail
If that glitch beats Sephiroth would anyone even consider taking it over Snake to be an upset?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:53:23 PM | message detail
boy red sox you sure are a buzzkill tonight
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:54:23 PM | message detail
Link can't be Star of the Round! That will be Shepard after he triples Pikachu!
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Not Wylvane
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:54:46 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #076
Well when you use the word fraud it makes it seem like he is much weaker than he showed, much weaker.

He was a good bit weaker than he showed. People were touting him as someone who could beat Sonic or Snake, and he probably never was at that level.

Which qualifies him as a fraud in my book.


The problem is you are seemingly using what some people expected with reality. "Some people say he could beat sonic or snake..."

But... no one smart should have thought that. He was always a step or two behind of ever being able to actually beat those people. I think it is weird you are using perceptions by certain people to dictate what really happened. I could say Samus was a fraud because people thought she could beat mario, but it doesnt make it true.
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Sir Chris
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:55:32 PM | message detail
Time | Ridley | Chris
00:05 | 63.56% | 66.19%
00:10 | 64.33% | 67.33%
00:15 | 65.88% | 68.17%
00:20 | 65.84% | 67.63%
00:25 | 66.07% | 67.89%
00:30 | 66.34% | 68.07%
00:35 | 66.53% | 68.29%
00:40 | 66.74% | 68.38%
00:45 | 66.92% | 68.47%
00:50 | 67.12% | 68.34%
00:55 | 67.49% | 68.46%
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:56:05 PM | message detail
Mario/Samus is a bit of a different situation than saying Magus could beat Sonic or Snake. Magus's match against Link seemed to indicate he could beat them (especially once Cloud doubled Sonic in the same contest no less), so perhaps I should say that performance was fraudulent, which it was.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:56:41 PM | message detail
I don't even know what the **** you guys are arguing about.

I kinda want to see Ganondorf vs Auron, though. Or Ganondorf vs Squall.
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Not Wylvane
red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:56:42 PM | message detail
It's all how you look at it. Either you can think that there is some rule (i.e. the x-stats) and any match that doesn't fit it is an anomaly, or you can think that there are no anomalies, and any match that you get wrong just proves the rule you were using is flawed.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Haguile | Posted 2/26/2010 9:57:06 PM | message detail
It will still be there, just dispersed throughout the whole day. Not that it matters, Captain Fodder is getting his teeth kicked in tomorrow
I don't know, I think I want to let Captain Falcon show Riku his moves before calling the match's result.
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JechtFAQS.
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:57:28 PM | message detail
...did Albion get suspended again?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:57:32 PM | message detail
And note I would have never taken Magus to beat Sonic or Snake at any time. But saying "Don't judge Magus off of people's perceptions" isn't exactly fair. Magus had a better 2003 contest than Sonic did based on their matches, period. This isn't an issue of perception. It's an issue of contest performance.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:57:39 PM | message detail
Who says Magus is a fraud?

For all we know, Sandbag would get 35% on Link 1v1!
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Not Wylvane
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:57:41 PM | message detail
Cloud doubling Sonic and then beating the crap out of Link kinda proved Cloud would have gave the business to Magus on a level (disregarding sff) that would have dispelled that, no?
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Why does Final Fantasy 7 win every year? Geesh you'd think people would give Zelda a try.
Sir Chris
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/26/2010 9:57:44 PM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #083
I don't even know what the **** you guys are arguing about.


Whatever it is, it's going to end with Leonhart getting insulted on this week's podcast, which will of course lead to an insult about me because those guys love mentioning me on every show.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:57:56 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #086
...did Albion get suspended again?


Yep.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:58:15 PM | message detail
Which will lead to someone calling me crazy. Just the way it should be.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:58:41 PM | message detail
Why? Someone please tell me so I can go to bed

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:58:45 PM | message detail
As for Link/Alucard/Magus... Link merely SFFed Alucard! They both use swords!
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:58:57 PM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #089
Cloud doubling Sonic and then beating the crap out of Link kinda proved Cloud would have gave the business to Magus on a level (disregarding sff) that would have dispelled that, no?


If you take Cloud/Link, Link/Magus, and Cloud/Sonic all at face value, you end up with Sonic and Magus being around equal. It doesn't really dispell anything.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:59:20 PM | message detail
KP, you are going to miss Sir Chris actually arguing in a contest topic?

I like, never do this <_<
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Why does Final Fantasy 7 win every year? Geesh you'd think people would give Zelda a try.
Sir Chris
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:59:37 PM | message detail
Link merely SFFed Alucard!

Bishounen SFF strikes again.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 10:00:12 PM | message detail
And it's nerdy enough for me to read contest debates in this topic! No way I'd listen to something as nerdy as a contest podcast!

Not like there's anything to talk about in those that haven't already been discussed ad nauseum in these topics!
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Not Wylvane
Hochimihnister | Posted 2/26/2010 10:00:32 PM | message detail
Based on my stats, Cloud is currently projected to get 50.57% on Link. This will increase as Cloud goes up tonight. Cloud has just 1-UPed Link. The ball is in Link's court. The shine is off the apple.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 10:01:00 PM | message detail
And despite our impressions of Cloud's board vote actually being good, he still managed to go up 2.3% from the freeze to the end of the hour!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."