GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 852
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:31:32 PM | message detail |
Alright then. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Poll Start Times*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man. Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, Missingno etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past. The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Not Wylvane |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:31:48 PM | message detail |
Pfft, nobody's really making sense stats-wise this contest. For ****'s sake, the god damn vote-in polls are more reliable than any old stats we have, four-ways or older 1v1 stats. Time | Ridley | Chris 00:05 | 63.56% | 66.19% 00:10 | 64.33% | 67.33% 00:15 | 65.88% | 68.17% 00:20 | 65.84% | 67.63% 00:25 | 66.07% | 67.89% 00:30 | 66.34% | 68.07% --- Not Wylvane |
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:31:53 PM | message detail |
From: Karma Hunter | #495 Hm? How was Ganondorf off target. I thought Ganondorf has proven himself to be on the level that we assumed in 2003, what has proven different? Also Tidus, again, was probably at his peak strength in 2003. Also who cares about Sam Fisher, I mean really. Trying to call characters frauds just because they drop off in strength is ridiculous. You don't pull the %s they did and say "man these guys are terrible." Now granted, Frog looked betterpurely by the numbers due to solid ****, but still. --- Winner of two Mafia Player of the Year Boardys Sir Chris |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:32:26 PM | message detail |
Whew! Further, I also simmed it with the 2003 stats, which pant much the same picture. No other contest really has Link in it in a way that allows us to see his "true" strength round by round. Then again, we'll see if I am vindicated in later rounds. We can also look at last year's Alucard who got doubled by Crono and couldn't even beat LFF'd Pikachu. Magus was not 35% on Link strong in 2003. I argued that heavily using lots of matches when arguing Squall > Magus in 2005. Oh, and Chris is going to wind up above Jill in the final stats one way or the other, barring a Samus upset, which isn't likely, no matter how we want to slice it! Chris honestly looked better than Jill last year anyway. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
charmander6000 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:32:33 PM | message detail |
Chris > Jill seemed possible even from last year. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 83/104 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Riku |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:32:34 PM | message detail |
Cloud
getting the same here would've been a horrendous result for him,
especially considering that Chris is a terrible character to try and
make him look bad. ...and Jill isn't the same for Samus? C'mon, this is just reaching now. What are you expecting out of Samus in that match, anyway? --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:32:36 PM | message detail |
"Alright then" You have 2 minutes to make a topic and you went with "alright then" Not even "let's mosey"? That's like the easiest Cloud opening there is! --- FAIL! |
Haguile | Posted 2/26/2010 9:32:52 PM | message detail |
Holy guacamole we had no stats topic for like...2 minutes. That was scary. --- JechtFAQS. |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:32:53 PM | message detail |
I also love how Cloud had 300 vote gains between 00:25 and 00:30 for both Ridley and Chris. --- Not Wylvane |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:33:05 PM | message detail |
Continuing from where I was so rudely interrupted by the topic hitting 500, I would've taken Jill>Chris before this match, and she got 32% on Samus during Samus' worst time. Cloud getting the same here would've been a horrendous result for him, especially considering that Chris is a terrible character to try and make him look bad. If Cloud gets 70%, that puts him about equal to Samus indirectly in my book. He'll still beat her, but this isn't a good result at all. It just looks better because his result against Ridley was godawful. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Hochimihnister | Posted 2/26/2010 9:33:37 PM | message detail |
Actually,
if you had listened to the podcast, you would have heard I said I
believe there is reason for Alucard to have boosted since 2004 Alucard has boosted since 2004? You must be joking. In 2005, he gets his ass kicked by Sora. In 2006, he gets doubled by Auron. In 2006, he LOSES to Liquid Snake. In 2007, he can barely beat Captain Falcon being LFFed by Diddy Kong. Boosted? You must be joking. |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/26/2010 9:34:25 PM | message detail |
Tag --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:34:52 PM | message detail |
...and
Jill isn't the same for Samus? C'mon, this is just reaching now. What
are you expecting out of Samus in that match, anyway? Not at all. Aside from both of them being kickass female character (which might account for a lot in your book, but I doubt it) Jill and Samus are entirely different fanbases, demographics, companies, systems. And Samus still beat her down - it was pretty impressive, especially after Jill doubled Niko. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:35:00 PM | message detail |
From: nintendogirl1 | #007 I was waiting for someone else to post the stats topic since I had another post I wanted to make before the last one closed. You guys sure are lazy! --- Not Wylvane |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:35:02 PM | message detail |
Hm?
How was Ganondorf off target. I thought Ganondorf has proven himself to
be on the level that we assumed in 2003, what has proven different? Ganondorf overrated Alucard in 2k4. That's why we were all so stunned when he bombed against Kratos and got easily upended by Sora in 2k5. Ganondorf 2k5 is obviously different from Ganon 2k3. He, like the rest of Nintendo, got a boost. It's like comparing Luigi 2k3 and Luigi 2k5. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:35:10 PM | message detail |
From: Hochimihnister | #011 Nope, not at all. As I also said, NO SFF baby. Auron and Sora take away some of his strength. Again, this can't be proven asof right now, but when Link kicks Cloud's ass in the final the proof will be in the pudding. --- Why does Final Fantasy 7 win every year? Geesh you'd think people would give Zelda a try. Sir Chris |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:35:47 PM | message detail |
Hm?
How was Ganondorf off target. I thought Ganondorf has proven himself to
be on the level that we assumed in 2003, what has proven different? Ganondorf got lucky that Twilight Princess was announced between 2003 and 2004. That's the only thing that kept Magus from being exposed as a total fraud until Knuckles beat him. Ganondorf would have probably beaten Magus pretty badly in 2004. Also Tidus, again, was probably at his peak strength in 2003. Also who cares about Sam Fisher, I mean really. But did Tidus drop so much that he goes from 35% on Link to 35% on Mega Man, or was there a fluke somewhere? And Donkey Kong did as well on Sam Fisher as Magus did. Samus quadrupled the guy. He nearly lost to Gordon when he was still GFNW. Oh, and if we want to throw in Magus's 2004 match against Luca Blight, it also points to him not being as strong as 2003 showed. Everything pointed to Magus being a fraud. Trying to call characters frauds just because they drop off in strength is ridiculous There are drops in strength, and there are what nearly everyone associated with Magus did. And it's no coincidence that these characters that were all associated with Magus ended up being way weaker than we thought, with the exception of Ganondorf. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 2/26/2010 9:35:49 PM | message detail |
Sephiroth
is going to be star of the round when he SFF whallops a fellow FF
character, which is something he hasn't been able to do, ever. --- "I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:36:11 PM | message detail |
Time | Ridley | Chris 00:05 | 63.56% | 66.19% 00:10 | 64.33% | 67.33% 00:15 | 65.88% | 68.17% 00:20 | 65.84% | 67.63% 00:25 | 66.07% | 67.89% 00:30 | 66.34% | 68.07% 00:35 | 66.53% | 68.29% These parallels are fun. --- Not Wylvane |
Mega Mana | Posted 2/26/2010 9:36:52 PM | message detail |
*zombie lurches through the topic* Braaaaiiiiinsss --- "And the theoretical maximum is 2880 messages, so I was only performing at 45.94% posting efficiency." - Luster Soldier |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:36:58 PM | message detail |
Sephiroth not wallop a fellow FF character? Not only has he done so, this is the exact same guy he did it to last time! (then got doubled by Cloud Snakehype forever) --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:36:59 PM | message detail |
I was waiting for someone else to post the stats topic since I had another post I wanted to make before the last one closed. You guys sure are lazy! I was in the same predicament! --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:37:00 PM | message detail |
From: Karma Hunter | #015 I don't understand why you are trying to use Sora to base anyone though. Sora is like, an ever changing force of the contest. Guys from series who are still continuing by a yearly basis almost can't really be considered markers. Also, Ganondorf has done nothing but been good, if you are trying to say "well everyone boosted so he was much weaker" to begin with doesnt really appear to make sense to me. Even if he boosted, it still fits his 2k3 form being about as strong as we thought it was. --- Dragon Quest V is awesome Sir Chris |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:37:01 PM | message detail |
Although at the rate he's going, Cloud might hit 72% here anyway. He's killing in Europe now, too. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/26/2010 9:37:16 PM | message detail |
Move your ass, Cloud. I gave you 70% which would be just enough to make it competitive against Samus. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 2/26/2010 9:38:40 PM | message detail |
And are people really starting to call Link > Cloud as if it's something that people should be surprised about --- "I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:38:52 PM | message detail |
Ganon
being 'nothing but good'? Letting Ken get 36% on you in the day seems
kinda chumptastic to me, but we'll see how he does against Sonic! --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:39:16 PM | message detail |
Cloud/Ridley
is like 400 votes ahead in votals, and Cloud's lead on Chris is 70
votes higher than his lead on Ridley at this point. Chris is no Nintendo character, but Cloud should have no problem dominating him in the night. Chris should fall under Ridley's percentage by the end of this. Which is pretty damn hilarious. Ridley > Chris. --- Not Wylvane |
Hochimihnister | Posted 2/26/2010 9:39:30 PM | message detail |
I
can't believe there is someone who actually believes Alucard has
boosted since 2004 and has gotten SFFed by Auron, Sora and Captain
Falcon. It's like he doesn't even pay attention to contests. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:39:36 PM | message detail |
It was 500 votes away from being 64% on Wesker. Looks a lot worse, doesn't it? --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:40:03 PM | message detail |
Ganon
has fallen off a bit since the match against Vincent in 2006. His 4-way
showings weren't particularly impressive. They weren't bad, but they
were pretty average. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:40:08 PM | message detail |
Chris's night vote is going to be better than Ridley's, but his morning vote is going to be atrocious. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Haguile | Posted 2/26/2010 9:40:56 PM | message detail |
So...About Captain Falcon vs Riku... Falcon is the underdog right? I'm hoping for Falcon to pull off a win, but...I somehow doubt it. --- JechtFAQS. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:41:24 PM | message detail |
Falcon is definitely the underdog, but he has a chance. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:41:29 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #017 Except it is a dangerously small sample pool. Sam Fisher is not exactly an endearing character who stays in the hearts and minds of people. Tidus as I said was at his peak in 2003, and has fallen off since then. Also as I said, I don't think xstats are always perfect. I don't think, directly, Tidus would have scored 35% against Link in 2003. Magus had a lot of "momentum" from the gamefaqs community that I saw present back then, everyone was cheering that guy on. I think to say "Magus was a fraud" in 2003 when everyone related to magus' game has fallen off to much the same sample size (frog/crono) is a bit crazy. I see no reason to think Magus was a fraud in 2003 (spoilers: How in the living **** do you fraud yourself to 35% on Link? How? I state that as basically impossible) but simply his fanbase has dropped off. --- The difference between arrogance and confidence is confidence acts rather than speaks. Sir Chris |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/26/2010 9:41:40 PM | message detail |
Time | Ridley | Chris 00:05 | 63.56% | 66.19% 00:10 | 64.33% | 67.33% 00:15 | 65.88% | 68.17% 00:20 | 65.84% | 67.63% 00:25 | 66.07% | 67.89% 00:30 | 66.34% | 68.07% 00:35 | 66.53% | 68.29% 00:40 | 66.74% | 68.38% Cloud having a higher lead on Chris vote-wise and Cloud/Ridley having higher votals is enough for me to take Ridley > Chris! --- Not Wylvane |
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 2/26/2010 9:41:46 PM | message detail |
After
seeing the records Jecht is putting up, who do all think is the weakest
entrant to ever make the third round in a normal 1v1 contest? Most of
the competition is from 2k2 I think: Donkey Kong Lara Croft Pac-Man 2k3 Tommy Vercetti as well maybe. I think Jecht probably takes the crown. Though with 128 characters, it's more like the second round in a normal contest. --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:41:51 PM | message detail |
Ganon
got humiliated twice in fourways relative to most expectations - I
don't think the majority of us really thought Luigi could beat him no
matter what the pic, and being SFFed enough to lose to GF is just sad.
He had his reasons, but yeah. He's not the Noble Nine breaker he was
hyped to be back in 2k5 - that loss to Vincent took all the luster off
of him. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Hochimihnister | Posted 2/26/2010 9:42:32 PM | message detail |
Achromatic, who do you have tomorrow in Riku/Falcon? |
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:42:34 PM | message detail |
From: Hochimihnister | #029 No, I don't trust four way stats to tell us much, just Auron and Sora! --- Dragon Quest V is awesome Sir Chris |
red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:43:00 PM | message detail |
There's
a significant gap between 72% and 68%. If Cloud ends at 72%, assuming
Jill = Chris, Cloud's projected to get 56.90% on Samus, about what he
got on Snake in 2008. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:43:08 PM | message detail |
Magus had a lot of "momentum" from the gamefaqs community that I saw present back then, everyone was cheering that guy on. You're basically saying he overperformed, and so he was overrated? Good, that's what I was saying, too. And acting like people can't overperform on Link is kinda silly. We've already seen Snake and L-Block do it! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:43:32 PM | message detail |
From: Karma Hunter | #038 I never hyped him to break anything, to be fair. Just because you stat heads over rely on stats and get burned often, forcing you to yell and shout at the characters who you think betrayed you, doesn't mean you are correct tbh. --- Why does Final Fantasy 7 win every year? Geesh you'd think people would give Zelda a try. Sir Chris |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:43:33 PM | message detail |
Snake
2k8's 45% against Link is a fraud, too, y'know. We don't *call* it
that, but that's what a bandwagon does - and it overrates his quarter
bracket if you take it at face value. We don't because we know better,
but there you go. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:43:58 PM | message detail |
Snake 2k8's 45% against Link is a fraud, too, y'know. blasphemy --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2010 9:44:16 PM | message detail |
karma hunter i still detest you for that --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Achromatic | Posted 2/26/2010 9:44:32 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #042 I am saying people actually cared about Chrono Trigger in 2003. Looking at the two games contests, and if you want to trust the four ways to be truthful in that, then CT has fallen off big time. --- The difference between arrogance and confidence is confidence acts rather than speaks. Sir Chris |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/26/2010 9:45:00 PM | message detail |
Wait until Snake v Seph match of the forever happens bandwagon starting a round earlier means Snake gets 55% in the finals --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2010 9:45:00 PM | message detail |
And you can say it's a small sample pool all you want, but it all pointed to the same result, the one we got! And no, the stats aren't perfect, but there are telltale signs you can gather when everyone related to a particular character starts underperforming. Just saying there are rapid shifts in strength from year to year doesn't explain anything, and it seems to be contrary to what we've seen in 8 contests. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/26/2010 9:45:21 PM | message detail |
I
never hyped him to break anything, to be fair. Just because you stat
heads over rely on stats and get burned often, forcing you to yell and
shout at the characters who you think betrayed you, doesn't mean you
are correct tbh. I agree with your reasoning, but uh sometime rudimentary knowledge is also required Like not thinking 2010 Alucard>2004 Alucard --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
