GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 843
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/21/2010 8:34:29 PM | message detail |
I
really think you're overhyping this buster sword thing. The picture is
clearly Zack Fair, anyone who knows him will know about he had the
Buster Sword. I really don't think voters will look at a pic with the
Buster Sword and be like "ZOMG MUST VOTE FOR THIS GUY NOW" --- Currently 25th on the CBVIII Leaderboard ^_^ Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING |
HaRRicH | Posted 2/21/2010 8:34:39 PM | message detail |
I'm
all for Aeris and Yuna being close, but Zack beating Auron is a tough
pillow to swallow. Then again, I've got Auron > Squall. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:35:28 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator] |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/21/2010 8:36:33 PM | message detail |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #353 Comedic Gold. --- http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/21/2010 8:37:08 PM | message detail |
Then again, I've got Auron > Squall. That'll be a tougher pill for you to swallow! From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #353 This coming from BT...? Hmmm...I don't know if I should go there... --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/21/2010 8:38:01 PM | message detail |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #353 Almost sig-worthy, don't know if would fit the character limit. --- holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee |
Ness26 | Posted 2/21/2010 8:39:04 PM | message detail |
Zidane
is at exactly 34000 votes right now. I think that's the second match in
a row we've had someone end an update with a number divisible by 1000. Not exactly unlikely. Let's say each character gets 35000 votes. You pass a 1000 marker 35 times in the match per character. Let's say we're at 160 votes per update. So roughly there's a 1/160 chance of landing on the 1000 mark each time you pass 100. For each character there's a 19.7% chance of landing on 1000. For two characters this comes out to 35.5% chance per match. ... I'm bored. --- No amount of planning will ever replace dumb luck. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:40:08 PM | message detail |
Everything
I argue has at least some form of logic behind it and at least some
statistical backing, even if it is heavily manipulated. Those 2 don't
even try. And I've proven to be consistently right. Meanwhile we have
garbage like Sonic > Mega Man and Ezio > Zelda coming from them. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
EternalxCourage | Posted 2/21/2010 8:40:43 PM | message detail |
I
dunno some of the stuff that I've said has been right. Sonic did as I
said he would against Knuckles, Zack blasted Yuna, Big Daddy is going
to beat Ness, Altair beat Liquid (although he flopped against Vivi
that's ok), Charizard is going to lose in a close battle against Sora. Uh...what else. Oh yeah Ken looked decent against Ganon, hopefully Ryu is going to beat Dante :( Zack has an outside shot against Mega Man and it's not going to be a blow out. If it is well..argh. Also Altair flopping burned a lot of people not just me. --- Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/21/2010 8:41:05 PM | message detail |
If Crono couldn't beat it, I don't see why Yoshi would. Then again, stranger things have happened. L-Block in 2007 was a case of L-Block's strength being non-linear, as in losing to someone, then coming back to defeating someone even stronger in a later match. If L-Block could defeat stronger characters after losing to someone weaker in the past, this could work in reverse. Where Missingno defeats someone like Crono, then loses to a weaker character instead. I would imagine this could only happen through some extreme anti-voting by disappointed Crono fans who didn't like the fact that Missingno defeated Crono. I think anti-voting has been a non-factor so far as far as joke characters go. HK-47 wasn't even close to defeating L-Block this contest. I think Missingno could even get some votes from people who would normally vote for Yoshi instead. If Nintendo fans are smart, they will see Missingno as their option to knocking out Sephiroth and might vote for Missingno instead of Yoshi just to make sure Missingno reaches Sephiroth. L-Block lost the board vote consistently in 2008 too. L-Block managed to win the board vote in round 1 of the last contest. Ike is getting beaten in every single region except the US, Canada, and the Netherlands. Mexico as well: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3803®ion=MX --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/21/2010 8:41:24 PM | message detail |
I
do admit that BT isn't as bad as those two, but still, he's not one who
should be calling out people for arguing stuff without anything to back
it up. --- http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
Sonic_Factor | Posted 2/21/2010 8:41:34 PM | message detail |
You're hilarious. I've never stated Sonic > MM or that Ezio > Zelda this year. --- Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII! He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:44:15 PM | message detail |
We
all knew Sonic was going to beat the piss out of Knuckles, most of the
guys here agreed that Zack was going to clobber Yuna, Big Daddy isn't
guaranteed to beat Ness at all, and neither is Charizard. I'm still not
sold on Charizard being good and I think Duke Nukem was as heavily, if
not more heavily overrated than anyone else the last 2 years. And
Altair went out and proved that one. A lot of people also had Vivi >
Altair > Liquid (me included). The people who didn't were caught up
on Liquid's flukey match that anyone with an iota of contest knowledge
would recognize. Zack has no shot against Mega Man and he'll be closer to 40% than he will to 45%. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
EternalxCourage | Posted 2/21/2010 8:45:43 PM | message detail |
Everything
I argue has at least some form of logic behind it and at least some
statistical backing, even if it is heavily manipulated. Those 2 don't
even try. And I've proven to be consistently right. Meanwhile we have
garbage like Sonic > Mega Man and Ezio > Zelda coming from them. I've already pointed out many different statistics that would provide support for my opinions. But at least I don't act like an elitist *****. The reality is that you don't know what's going to happen come match time. Everyone thought Altair was going to win (most people) against Vivi and it didn't happen. You can only make educated guesses when it comes to these polls and people would do well to remember that. I believe certain things that may or may not come true, but I'm open minded to everyone's opinions. You guys should be less head up your asses and try to be a little more open minded. I'm pretty sure that Sonic > Mega Man has about as much statistical backing as Mega Man > Sonic, if not more. --- Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul. |
Hochimihnister | Posted 2/21/2010 8:46:52 PM | message detail |
It appears Ike prances into Round 3. How lucky for him, Zidane would have beat him in a 24 hour poll |
EternalxCourage | Posted 2/21/2010 8:48:12 PM | message detail |
I agree, I think that Zidane beats Ike in a 24 hour poll, or a 12 hour night match. That said, BT are you going to slam your fingers with cement blocks when Zack isn't closer to 40% than 45? --- Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/21/2010 8:49:23 PM | message detail |
Looks like Zidane is gonna end up winning the final two hours here. --- http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:49:39 PM | message detail |
Then
let's see something that isn't from 2006 and only shows them being half
a percent off from eachother. I've already shown you that Mega Man
didn't drop at all the last 2 years through his match against Samus,
while Sonic is clearly sucking hard with his loss to Auron, his near
loss to SFF'd Squall, his abortion of a performance against Sub-Zero in
2007 and him doing worse on a character whose game hasn't even come out
than Mega Man did against a Final Fantasy 7 PC. Add in the fact that the Sonic Fail Crew has been collectively sucking hard (aside from that weird Tails/Kratos match) while the Mega Man Awesome Crew has looked at least consistent with 2006, if not more impressive. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:50:15 PM | message detail |
Mega Man with the doubling for the first hour? --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/21/2010 8:50:33 PM | message detail |
Man there's a lot of anger in this topic time to defuse it. Sora > Mario is a damn lock choo choo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTeDAst3KA0&feature=related --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
EternalxCourage | Posted 2/21/2010 8:51:10 PM | message detail |
So
what are you basing Cid > Lightning on when it has been proven that
characters have a substantial amount of power in the hype phase? --- Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul. |
HaRRicH | Posted 2/21/2010 8:51:46 PM | message detail |
And I've proven to be consistently right. If his first post didn't, this quote DOES fit into the sig-limit. =) --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
red sox 777 | Posted 2/21/2010 8:52:10 PM | message detail |
This
should be good. Zack probably wins (relatively) the first 5 minutes,
Megaman dominates the first hour, then Zack kills the 4-6 AM block. --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
Sonic_Factor | Posted 2/21/2010 8:52:21 PM | message detail |
Lol,
it's hilarious that you make these assumptions about what I thought of
matches. Most being wrong. I have Zelda > Ezio. It won't be close. I
had vivi > altair, and I have MM > Zach. MM will win DUH, but not
with 60%. I already said I think zach will hit 44/45. I'm guessing
you're butthurt over my opinions on Sonic > Kirby and Sonic >
ganondorf. Which any competent person would have in their bracket. --- Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII! He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:53:13 PM | message detail |
What
characters have "a substantial amount of power in the hype phase"? The
only argument for that is 2006 Snake, and that was more a result of him
being exposed to a totally different fanbase through essentially the
most hyped game of this generation. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
red sox 777 | Posted 2/21/2010 8:53:19 PM | message detail |
Zack > Sonic (but he's still not beating MM tonight, sadly) --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 2/21/2010 8:54:26 PM | message detail |
Ness26,
your math was right but your assumption was wrong. If a character gets
35000 votes then he averages 243 an update. That puts the odds of a
specific character getting it at13.5% and any character at 25.1%. Still
not as ridiculously unlikely as I had thought it would be. I'm bored too. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:54:59 PM | message detail |
I
have Sonic > both of them, but only because of Round 3 Bacondorf
match pic. I think Ganon would take it in a squeaker in any other
situation. I'm still not sold on Kirby being an elite character. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
EternalxCourage | Posted 2/21/2010 8:55:14 PM | message detail |
Most hyped game of this generation please. @_@ Master Chief has had a great deal of power due to hype, Sonic seemingly boosted due to brawl hype, etc. --- Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul. |
HaRRicH | Posted 2/21/2010 8:55:40 PM | message detail |
And I'm gonna guess Zack aims for...let's go with 42.5%. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
Hochimihnister | Posted 2/21/2010 8:56:01 PM | message detail |
For
reference, Mega Man has 68% at the freeze against Cid and ended with
63%. I'm expecting a similar drop from the freeze tonight. |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 2/21/2010 8:56:32 PM | message detail |
From: EternalxCourage | #364 Everyone thought Altair was going to win (most people) against Vivi and it didn't happen. You can only make educated guesses when it comes to these polls and people would do well to remember that. Vivi was the guru favourite and of the stats regulars these people took Vivi: NGamer HaRR red sox Ulti tranny TRE Yoblazer KP me Voltch BT RPGuy People who took Altair: Albion Curt http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=72 --- Aren't facts wonderful? |
EternalxCourage | Posted 2/21/2010 8:56:33 PM | message detail |
It
seems more like you manipulate stats to look like what you want them
to, and I do the same. It's not like it's a perfect science. You aren't
some stat god or you would have won a contest by now. That said, again, what basis do you have for Cid being stronger than Lightning? --- Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul. |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/21/2010 8:56:44 PM | message detail |
This
should be good. Zack probably wins (relatively) the first 5 minutes,
Megaman dominates the first hour, then Zack kills the 4-6 AM block. Zack winning the board vote would be interesting. I remember Mega Man getting the board vote against Cid last round, so I'm not sure on this one. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
HaRRicH | Posted 2/21/2010 8:56:48 PM | message detail |
ZackFAQs will have a better board-vote than Cid. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/21/2010 8:57:02 PM | message detail |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #375 2007 MC disagrees with this statement --- holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:57:14 PM | message detail |
From: EternalxCourage And aside from that, Sonic went up against Lightning in his best time. Mega Man beat Cid down during his worst time and FF7's best. --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
EternalxCourage | Posted 2/21/2010 8:57:50 PM | message detail |
That
was before his match against Liquid, ngirl, thank you for trying to
manipulate the situation though. Brackets were submitted before the
contest. There's no arguing that people thought Altair was the favorite
after his performance on Liquid, no need to be ignorant. --- Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:57:51 PM | message detail |
From: TheKoolAidShoto From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #375 2007 MC disagrees with this statement Despite the fact that he vastly improved between round 1 and 2? --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/21/2010 8:58:29 PM | message detail |
Final ZackFAQs of the year, boys. Let's make it a good one. --- Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/21/2010 8:59:00 PM | message detail |
Ready for another anticlimactic night match where a supposed near elite bombs against a Noble Niner? I'm not. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/21/2010 8:59:10 PM | message detail |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_7rmGlo-1U Time to bust out an oldie but goodie. --- http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/21/2010 8:59:22 PM | message detail |
From: nintendogirl1 To be fair, a lot of those stats regulars jumped on the Altair wagon after round 1. A better comparison would be to look at our Oracles (in which I still underestimated Vivi by 2% :( ) --- "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 |
red sox 777 | Posted 2/21/2010 8:59:29 PM | message detail |
Unlike Big Boss, Zack isn't overrated! --- Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/21/2010 8:59:39 PM | message detail |
*picked Vivi > Altair in the Oracle* --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
ToadYoshi | Posted 2/21/2010 9:00:01 PM | message detail |
Let's just try not to all be disappointed, ok? --- Guru contest: 78/82 (1!) Misses: Boss, Altair, Kefka, Missingno Next upset: Sub-Zero > Roxas |
Master Moltar | Posted 2/21/2010 9:00:12 PM | message detail |
Mega Man 70.59% 12 Zack Fair 29.41% 5 TOTAL VOTES 17 --- Moltar Status: Bracket: Mario > Big Boss (68/80) Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/21/2010 9:00:17 PM | message detail |
Vote Accepted Mega Man 65.22% 15 Zack Fair 34.78% 8 TOTAL VOTES 23 Oh boy. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/21/2010 9:00:18 PM | message detail |
Mega Man 66.67% 12 Zack Fair 33.33% 6 TOTAL VOTES 18 I am disappoint. --- Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/21/2010 9:00:21 PM | message detail |
rofl zack --- http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/13twop_02.jpg Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli fanboyism |
