GameFAQs Contests

We all thought Altair was a lock to rock round 2 after his first round performance last year, so I wouldn't be totally shocked if he did it again. I don't have much respect left for Liquid at this point.

For what it's worth, Yuna got 55.49% on Alucard in round 2 in 2007, and we saw that Liquid and Alucard were essentially equals in round 1 (and who knows what happened to Liquid in round 2, but Yuna got 64.75% on him there. Heck, Alucard got 59.57% on him in round 2, which is slightly better than what Altair put on him last round and I'd take Vivi > Alucard). I think Altair should rightfully be the favorite, but I don't think it's quite as wrapped up as some people think it is. Vivi has a great chance to win.
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Ezio isn't exactly that impressive and Liquid Snake just loves to play mind-game with everyone, i can't completely rule-out Vivi in winning the match yet.

Would prefer Big Boss having a face-picture from MGS3 than Peacewalker as it would be more recognizable, but seeing as how it is not that old man pic he used in R2 last contest, i do not mind about it. Big Boss breaking 40% on Mario, here we go.
---
Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times"

I see it as more of a toss-up than anything. If it were a night match, I'd call Vivi the favorite.
---
Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Uhh.. here's some surprising info. I just looked through Altair's matches, and Asia is his strongest region. Like, by far.
---
Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Why would Vivi go down? Final Fantasy IX was named the 20th best game of the decade at Destructoid, and that list had only 1 game per series!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Problem is, I understand that on this site FFIX has no chance in hell of beating VIII or especially X, which it narrowly defeated at Destructoid (they mentioned that it was close between IX and X to make it on the list, just like Vice City narrowly lost to San Andreas and Majora's Mask narrowly lost to Wind Waker)...but FFIX is basically an old-school FF, meaning that it should boost! Oh wait, then you have both Vivi and Zidane underperforming last round...

Oh, and if you notice, Amaterasu and GLaDOS are tied for highest seeded female character (aside from Samus of course), and then it looks like Jill Valentine is next. THEN we get to the strong, beautiful women known as Tifa and Zelda (and then Terra ties with them, heh).

I'm back. To summarize what I've caught up that I've missed:

lol crono
lol red
lol ganonfail

Glad to see X kicking ass and Ken looking respectable. Seems as though for whatever reason, Capcom characters are kicking ass this year!

Mega Man > Mario
Zero > Auron
Ryu > 40% on Cloud

Let's do this!
---
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Why would Vivi go down? Final Fantasy IX was named the 20th best game of the decade at Destructoid, and that list had only 1 game per series!

flawless logic.
---
Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me

Wait, people are considering Altair > Vivi? They're taking an unproven high-end fodder character who won an (albeit impressive) match against the most inconsistant character in contest character over a proven midcarder? And after the egg that Ezio layed, seems to me that Vivi should at the very least squeak out a 53-47 victory.
---
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

I have no idea why people put so much stock in 4 ways at all. It's unreal how you could possibly believe that you can accurately measure the strength of a character when there are 3 other characters in the poll. Especially in the later rounds when the other three characters become more and more recognizable.

Altair should be the favorite going in against Vivi, even taking Liquid at his weakest (2007, since it's the weakest data we have on him, although lol x-stats) Vivi is only placed at 2% higher than him. They've never been that far apart strength wise. I don't see why Vivi would be expected to ever 60 - 40 Liquid.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

It's not a bad push from GlaDOS here. 0.2% in an hour. Doubt it will be enough to save the doubling but least it's making it marginally more respectable.
---
Oracle Challenge 2k10 ~~~ Individual: 4th ~~~ Team: 5th (Partner BZer0)

So next is the first trully debatable match of round 2 eh?Nice.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

What is Ryu/Dante looking to become right now? Very close battle?
---
[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue

I have no idea why people put so much stock in 4 ways at all. It's unreal how you could possibly believe that you can accurately measure the strength of a character when there are 3 other characters in the poll. Especially in the later rounds when the other three characters become more and more recognizable.

It's nice to see someone smart agreeing with me on this.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(

From: UltimaterializerX | #113
I have no idea why people put so much stock in 4 ways at all. It's unreal how you could possibly believe that you can accurately measure the strength of a character when there are 3 other characters in the poll. Especially in the later rounds when the other three characters become more and more recognizable.

It's nice to see someone smart agreeing with me on this.

Did you really just call the guy that thinks Zelda can't get 60% on Simon Belmont smart?
---
Really?

4 way xstats are fine as long as you have a modicum of common sense. It's true that some data will be absolute garbage but on the flipside, dismissing them so easily is equally as stupid.

Let's take today's match as an example. Leonhart's 2008 xstats peg Kirby at 68.2 for today. Obviously wildly inaccurate and lol4wayxstats then...
---
Oracle Challenge 2k10 ~~~ Individual: 4th ~~~ Team: 5th (Partner BZer0)

Donkey Kong vs. Liquid Snake?

---
GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

Leonhart's 2008 xstats peg Kirby at 68.2 for today.

That's not very inaccurate at all. Now that Kirby is starting to rise, he will probably come close to 68.20% by the end of the match.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

Which was my point Luster.
---
Oracle Challenge 2k10 ~~~ Individual: 4th ~~~ Team: 5th (Partner BZer0)

I'd take DK there. Don't know if i'd take him by more than 53-47 though.
---
"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War

It's really easy to tell when someone like Curt isn't being serious. He admits the trolling himself half the time.

By the way, Leon's stats have a lot of intelligent 1v1 adjustments.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(

I use "lol 4 way stats" for most of my oracle predictions and it turned out to be quite well for me so far. It might not be reliant at times (look at Arthas, Magus, Kratos), but totally dismissing it is just lol-worthy.

---
Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times"

Where are Leon's 2k8 stats? On the wiki i'm guessing since they're not on Ngamer's site?
---
"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War

Which is where the common sense comes in. Adjustments or not they are still fundamentally 4 way xstats.

If someone goes 'X beat Y in this 4 way therefore they win 1 vs 1 against Z!' without taking any sort of adjustments into account then of course they won't have their opinions respected. Doing that is like dismissing SFF in 1 vs 1's and just using raw xstats. Both are equally as stupid.
---
Oracle Challenge 2k10 ~~~ Individual: 4th ~~~ Team: 5th (Partner BZer0)

The problem with 4way stats is they attempt an impossible statistical homeostasis. The fluctuations are too insane from round to round, and accurate overall stats after all that madness won't happen. Even 1v1 stats have this problem, so putting stock into the stats from an illegitimate format is ridiculous.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(

The fluctuations are wild, yes, but we've not seen evidence that they consistently favor certain characters over others. So, they're surprisingly good, actually.
---
Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

Surprising since we came into this contest with the expectation of going "LOL 4WAYS" all the time, anyway.
---
Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

They've been accurate more often than not, it's just the "not" stick out more, and some of them like Kefka/Arthas would still have fooled us if we were doing 1v1 the last two character contests.

They're not perfect, especially with all the LFF floating around and mucking things up, but neither are the 1v1 stats. They do a decent job, though.

I still don't trust Altair enough to beat Vivi. Liquid barely beat LFFed Big Daddy pre-Bioshock 2 in the vote-ins, and I'd probably pick Vivi to get 60% on Big Daddy.
---
Not Wylvane

I don't quite get why Altair is some massive favorite.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(

I consider it a perfect toss-up at this point, along with Dante/Ryu and Riku/Falcon.
---
Should be good matches.

Because we're all thinking that Liquid Snake is stronger than DK by a fair margin, especially when you look at their performances in the last contest (47% on Luigi vs. 40% on Tidus). However, you then consider how much Ridley and (sorta) Peach surprised us, and DK suddenly looks a lot better. Delayed Brawl boost for lesser Nintendo characters?

So...is 2010 the year where Nintendo characters who nobody really cares about impress? But wait, then where's Wario? Why did Ike flop? How did Falcon not do better? I dunno about all those, but the DK/Ridley/Peach trio is looking better here for some reason. Of course, there's the fact that DK and especially Peach rely on name value while Ridley is anything but that sort of character, and likely drew a perfect storm (people like to anti-vote FF7 stuff for no good reason so they will put their stock into that cool dragon who looks so much better in the match pic).

I don't get why he wouldn't be considered the favorite. Like I said, at no point in any contest would Vivi have 60 - 40ed Liquid. So he must have dropped off a lot from even his weakest year for Altair to be weaker than Vivi.

Also I never said that Zelda couldn't get 60% on Simon Belmont.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

From: EternalxCourage | #131
I don't get why he wouldn't be considered the favorite. Like I said, at no point in any contest would Vivi have 60 - 40ed Liquid. So he must have dropped off a lot from even his weakest year for Altair to be weaker than Vivi.

Also I never said that Zelda couldn't get 60% on Simon Belmont.

Ezio didn't get 60%.

If you think Zelda can get 60%, then she's stronger than Ezio and he won't win.
---
You do get how this works right?

'04 Vivi put up 29.75% on Sephiroth
'05 Liquid Snake put up 24.8% on Sephiroth

---
Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn

Because we're all thinking that Liquid Snake is stronger than DK by a fair margin, especially when you look at their performances in the last contest (47% on Luigi vs. 40% on Tidus). However, you then consider how much Ridley and (sorta) Peach surprised us, and DK suddenly looks a lot better. Delayed Brawl boost for lesser Nintendo characters?'

Really though you have to look at their opponents. Gordon has never been very good on GameFAQs, and Peach had an outside shot at beating him from the beginning. In the two contests they've been in together they've finished both times relatively close in the X-Stats (including the 4 ways, but meh). I don't see why her staying close with Gordon would be considered a 'good performance' especially since his hypetrain has most likely died down from the Gamespot contest.

Ridley is easily attributed to the anti-blowouts of the N9 this year, coupled with anti-votes, and a pic that is recognizable (especially since Metroid is such a popular series here).

DK didn't look that much better either, considering at the height of Vivi's popularity he only lost to him with 44% or something like that. It does't take that much of a deboost from Vivi and a very slight increase from DK to make up that gap. Not to mention in some years DK has been higher in the X-Stats anyway, and has always remained relatively close throughout the years.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

Match LXXII: (7) Vivi vs. (2) Altair

Last Round

Vivi – 56.29%
Donkey Kong – 43.71%

Altair – 59.12%
Liquid Snake – 40.88%

Analysis

As someone who has Liquid Snake winning this match I would love to take Altair winning over Vivi by more than what he got against Liquid, but a repeat of that kind of performance would make him a near elite which is something I don’t think will happen. On the other hand Altair is the favourite to win this match, especially after that performance on Liquid Snake.

Liquid Snake for whatever reason likes to bounce around in terms of strength, but even if we go with his weakest state the performance Altair managed to pull off is still rather impressive. I think it’s safe to say that the Liquid that Altair defeated was very different than the one that we saw in 2008. In an attempt to try and figure Liquid Snake out looking at his previous matches it seems that his better performances come against characters that have as little as possible in common and tends to perform badly against characters from the Playstation 1 and ones that have massive casual appeal. Food for thought I guess.

Vivi had an eerily similar match to his 2004 rendition against Donkey Kong which is quite interesting when you figure that after all of the site changes one would think they would separate a bit. I’m not sure what to call that performance, but personally I expected more from Vivi since it seemed that Donkey Kong has dropped in strength over the years, though before that drop it seemed like he went up in strength.

I figure Altair will win this match, but if that casual SFF thing against Liquid Snake is true Vivi may have a chance at winning. This is the first match of this round with any kind of hype so hopefully it can live up to it.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Liquid Snake > Vivi

charmander6000’s Prediction: Altair wins, 52.74% - 47.26%

---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 63/76 - Today's Winners: Kirby and Liquid Snake

Character A gets this % on Character B, Character C beats Character A and therefore must get this % at least on Character B.

That logic doesn't always work in this contest, especially considering the circumstances. Just look at the first round pic -- Ezio needs to be recognized with his picture for most of his strength, and their pictures were very, very similar. Not to mention the apparent CT boost (Alucard did very well for himself), and Simon Belmont has never had a real fair read.

That said, I've said multiple times that I expect Zelda to probably pump out something like 45% on Ezio (if you paid attention), but I haven't thrown away his chances of winning completely. As Ezio gets further in the contest I think his recognizability will go up, and as that goes up he will gain more votes in the same way that Altair hopefully does. Ezio has the potential to be at least as strong as Altair, and if Altair flops it's likely that Ezio will too.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

...CT boost?
---
Not Wylvane

Lol. I meant CV.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

I kinda of hope Altair puts up near 60% just so we can finally see someone new who is legit strong.
---
"Because some charities are corrupt." -bobby1986 on why it is better to give to the church instead of a charity.
Sir Chris

I have a feeling Altair gets 56% or so.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

I don't know if he'll be able to post 60% as that's a pretty tall order, especially since Vivi is a hard character to anti-vote like most FF characters. That said I do think he is a legitimately strong character and will likely at least post a 55%.

I think in order to threaten Kirby a 55 - 57% would give him a shot at beating him, and 57% plus would make him the favorite.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

From: EternalxCourage | #138
Lol. I meant CV.

You worried me there for a minute.

Simon is still the most surprising to me. It's not like he's still low fodder, since he did do well in the vote-ins. And even if Ezio is weak, Simon still pulled one hell of a performance that catapulted him ahead of his Guybrush-esque performances of before. And though Simon's had new games, they aren't anything that would give him such a huge boost.

It's sad that the crazy-ass CT/CV SFF theory is the only one that makes any sense, as that one still doesn't make any sense. I'd rather call this an AVGN boost!
---
Not Wylvane

What reason would Castlevania have had to boost? Because I don't see any.
---
"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

From: Fayt_Esteed | #143
What reason would Castlevania have had to boost? Because I don't see any.

CASTLEVANIA JUDGEMENT BOOST
---
Currently 25th on the CBVIII Leaderboard ^_^
Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING

It's not like the CT/CV theory doesn't make sense. Subjectively I would expect them to have similar fanbases.

But anyway, that aside, even if you ignore that theory you still have Crono in the poll with him every time meaning that he's never had a readable match against someone in a 1v1. He might as well be treated as a newcomer. We'll find out against Zelda if he's a legit character or if Ezio is just weaker than I expect him to be.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

It doesn't matter if you see a reason or not. Some characters just inexplicably boost at times -- maybe a demographic shift in the site voters, or people just happened to play their games when they hadn't before.

Either way Alucard was never supposed to do that to Magus -- even with new horrible performances.
---
Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.

From: Fayt_Esteed | #143
What reason would Castlevania have had to boost? Because I don't see any.

Yeah. Alucard didn't seem to boost any, anyway. This looks to be all Simon not being weak for once, which is weird as hell. Characters like Drake, Cecil, Shepard, etc. all had reasons to have huge boosts from their weaker selves, while Simon's had nothing notable besides the Castlevania fighting game or the Castlevania 1 remake or whatever, both of which I can't see giving him such a huge boost.

Simon's the only ****ing mystery for me concerning this contest.
---
Not Wylvane

Characters don't really need reasons to boost or fall, they just do. Assuming that Alucard didn't put up the percentage he put up on Link through anit-votes though, the Alucard of old really is back- he did better against Link there than he did against Sephiroth back in 2003. I think 2006 was probably his worst year, and the one we've been fixated on for a long time in saying that Alucard's been dropping. He's looked better than his awful 2006 showing ever since 2007, and now he's all the way back.
---
Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

From: EternalxCourage | #136
Character A gets this % on Character B, Character C beats Character A and therefore must get this % at least on Character B.

That logic doesn't always work in this contest, especially considering the circumstances

You're right. x-stats are completely worthless in any and all situations, especially 1v1.
---
Let's all just quit.

CT/CV SFF is not the strangest SFF relationship I've heard brought up here, from an intuitive as opposed to stats perspective. ToS/Nintendo is, and I'm the person who came up with silent protagonist LFF!
---
Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi