GameFAQs Contests

MMX's matches last year don't tell us anything anyway because of all the LFF. I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw from them.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

From: LeonhartFour | #051
MMX's matches last year don't tell us anything anyway because of all the LFF. I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw from them.

We could always use the vote-ins!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3695

What do you know, X is weaker than L-Block!
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Not Wylvane

And weaker than Leon if you want someone more concrete!
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Not Wylvane

From: Not_Wylvane | #053
And weaker than Leon if you want someone more concrete!

That wouldn't surprise me, to be completely honest with you.

...Vault Boy > Red? That would've been one heck of an upset!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

From: LeonhartFour | #054
That wouldn't surprise me, to be completely honest with you.

...Vault Boy > Red? That would've been one heck of an upset!

That would've made the contest for me, if Cecil/Knuckles and Missingno/Crono hadn't already made it for me in the first place!
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Not Wylvane

Sandal is Tanner-level fodder. This was obvious the moment i saw his pic. I am not kidding when i say i would for a rock from any random game over him.
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

So I'll just go ahead and ask: What kind of numbers would Vivi/Altair have to put up tomorrow to make you think either one has a shot at Kirby next round?
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

*would vote for a rock
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

glados is starting to sky rocket in europe
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

Even if Vivi 70/30'd Altair, I wouldn't pick him over Kirby.

If Altair 70/30'd Vivi, I'd definitely worry about him upsetting Kirby.
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Not Wylvane

This is pretty good from GlaDOS after what Cube managed.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

GlaDOS trying to escape the doubling. How cute.
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Not Wylvane

Chart from yesterday's match:

Time | Ganondorf | Ken | Votes
0:05 | 65.69% | 34.31% | 921
1:00 | 64.25% | 35.75% | 8647
2:00 | 63.23% | 36.77% | 7242
3:00 | 64.37% | 35.63% | 6685
4:00 | 64.83% | 35.17% | 6975
5:00 | 66.01% | 33.99% | 6997
6:00 | 65.33% | 34.67% | 6346
7:00 | 64.61% | 35.39% | 5758
8:00 | 62.43% | 37.57% | 5174
9:00 | 61.18% | 38.82% | 4652
10:00 | 62.60% | 37.40% | 4300
11:00 | 61.71% | 38.29% | 3904
12:00 | 62.13% | 37.87% | 3480

Ganondorf had a great hour early in the ASV, but Ken just seemed to go crazy from there, relatively speaking. He nearly got a 39% hour at one point. California ASV indeed.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

There's not much conclusive, but they give you a general idea of his strength:

72.86% on Lloyd: compare with Fox getting 67.25% on Lloyd this year.
57.32% on Liquid, probably while being held down a bit by Mario and Luigi: compare with Luigi's 54.52% on Liquid in R1.

49.13% on Mario with Zelda and Mudkip in the poll.
47.35% on Mario with Luigi in the poll.
44.28% on Mario with Link in the poll.

45.27% on Zack, with Link and Mario in the poll.

LFF is not something with unlimited power- for example adding in Sephiroth to Cloud/Snake only reduced Cloud from 57% to 50%. Now, being on the bottom end of SFF can be a lot more painful, but Mario was never in that situation, so it's hard to see X being worth much below 40% on Mario. The last comparison with Zack is a pretty telling one I think, becase it is pretty clear that Megaman and Nintendo overlap, so X should be higher than that on Zack, who is in Ganondorf's range.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

i know youre all kirby fans here, but at what point does he start looking bad in %? From everything I was reading.. people expected 70
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

From: Not_Wylvane | #060
Even if Vivi 70/30'd Altair, I wouldn't pick him over Kirby.

If Altair 70/30'd Vivi, I'd definitely worry about him upsetting Kirby.

This is somewhat along the lines of what i was thinking, but lower it to like 65/35
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

I wouldn't expect much shifting over the night. Both Europe and North America have very similar results in this match.
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"It smells like a whale ate some cabbage and died in your mouth like a year ago."--Eddie Riggs
Yesmar

Bad as in Sonic is the favorite over him or bad as in bad?

Because I think most of us have Sonic winning that match.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

Yeah, I'm thinking I don't like Vivi to beat Kirby, no matter what happens, just because they're both established characters and we know their strengths. Altair is the one who worries me. I don't think he outdoes what he did on Liquid against Vivi though. I'd pick Vivi > Liquid pretty easily (And I thought I did! Stupid lack of double-checking my bracket means no chance for points tomorrow for me!).
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Bad as in underperforming. While we're at it, when does Sonic look like the favorite? With this %, Vincent > Kirby, and he's still dropping.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

I picked Liquid > Vivi, so I'm ****ed no matter what happens!

Then again, I underestimated Vivi so much that I had Donkey Kong > Vivi until people posted that Vivi had already beat DK before! Shows how much I remember!
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Not Wylvane

I wouldn't take a whole lot out of this performance for Kirby because GlaDOS is still relatively unknown, strength-wise. His match next round against Vivi/Altair would give us a good idea of his chances against Sonic.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

I have Kirby winning that match, and i still feel like he has a solid shot at the upset. Sonic and Kirby are both basically Nintendo and seem close in strength, so it's simply a matter of who the SFF favors.
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

Kirby and Ganondorf both aren't doing as well as they should to beat a weakened Sonic. It's a shame Sonic doesn't get to face someone like Auron

Sonic and Kirby are both basically Nintendo and seem close in strength, so it's simply a matter of who the SFF favors.

If Sonic/Kirby has SFF in it, I'll eat the hats of everyone in the stats topic.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Kirby doesn't need to be at Vincent's level to beat Sonic! Auron certainly wasn't!
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Not Wylvane

From: Sonic_Factor | #070
With this %, Vincent > Kirby

We already knew that before this match. Vincent > Sonic too, so that's not saying anything.
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"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War

Who the hell would SFF favor in Sonic/Kirby anyway?
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Not Wylvane

Kirby is going to drop a lot I think.. Glados is at 35% in europe now.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

From: LeonhartFour | #075
If Sonic/Kirby has SFF in it, I'll eat the hats of everyone in the stats topic.

I wish i owned a hat.

They're both in Brawl. That's at least one fanbase they share right there.
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"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War

I'd take Altair to be the favorite over Kirby if he breaks......57% on Vivi.

To Sonic Factor: Kirby would be underperforming a bit to me if he fails to get a doubling. For him to go after Sonic, I thought he wanted 70%, although we don't really know how strong GlaDOS is all that well, so it's not a great measure of Kirby's strength.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

Who the hell would SFF favor in Sonic/Kirby anyway?

Not being biased, but I honestly think Sonic. Luigi didn't even hit 40% on him.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.

From: Not_Wylvane | #078
Who the hell would SFF favor in Sonic/Kirby anyway?

That's a good question that i hope pigman doesn't keep us from finding out. I'm banking on Kirby.
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"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War

Yeah, but is that going to make for disproportionate overlap? Besides, close matches usually don't feature heavy SFF (Mario/Samus being the notable exception). Squall and Vincent obviously share a fanbase, but I don't think there was any SFF at play there. Same with Auron/Aerith last round.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

From: Chaotic Mind | #083
That's a good question that i hope pigman doesn't keep us from finding out. I'm banking on Kirby.

If Ganondorf beats Sonic, are we going to call SFF on it?
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Sonic's pretty much Nintendo now, so Sonic/Kirby SFF is at least possible.

I wouldn't bet on it existing or anything, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. Which way it'd go is another matter entirely.

Mario/Sonic, I'd expect Mario to SFF Sonic so hard he'd double the ****ing hedgehog.
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Not Wylvane

You guys are crazy with those Altair percentages. Zelda couldn't hit 60% on Vivi, Sephiroth just barely got 70%. If Altair hits 60% I'd consider him the heavy favorite against Kirby. That's not gonna happen though.
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KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest.

Mario/Sonic is a special case though, for obvious reasons.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

Based on the people I know in real life, SFF in Kirby/Sonic would favor Kirby. Of course these people are all Nintendo fans, but most people who like Sonic I know are Nintendo fans! Of course the real Sonic fanbase will be more loyal, but if Sonic does get a lot of his strength nowadays from Nintendo, it could easily dry up at the first sign of a decently strong Nintendo character. Probably it will be as it almost always is in these contests- the stronger characters gets any SFF there is, if there is any.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

I'd rather see Mario/Sonic now that Mario would crush the everliving **** out of Sonic than in 2003 when Sonic probably would've made it close or even win, god forbid.
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Not Wylvane

Based on your examples, Ninty SFFs each other but FF doesn't. Sonic/Kirby are Ninty.
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"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War

HHHAAATTT EEEAAATTTEEERRR
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

From: LeonhartFour | #085
If Ganondorf beats Sonic, are we going to call SFF on it?

That would depend on how much he beat Sonic by. If it's more than like 52-53%, yeah i would think at least a little is at play.
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

There's also a difference between putting Sonic against Mario or Luigi and someone like Kirby. When you put Sonic against Mario or Luigi, you're emphasizing his role as Mario's rival, as Nintendo's rival. When you put him against other Nintendo characters, it's easier for Nintendo voters to forget about the rivalry and see Sonic as just another "Nintendo" character. That could all be completely wrong, but that's how I read the Nintendo fanbase.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

Kirby does have precedent in out-SFFing Sonic, but that was also with a bandwagon that later let him crush SFFed Sephiroth worse than 2006 Snake.

I'd probably go toward Kirby SFFing Sonic based on the 2008 match, Brawl favoring Kirby, and Sonic becoming a joke, but on the other hand, Sonic's a much bigger icon than Kirby will ever be, and that alone could supercede any other intangible that gives favor to Kirby.

That said, should be one hell of a match, at least for the first ten minutes until the winner is clear.
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Not Wylvane

From: Chaotic Mind | #091
Based on your examples, Ninty SFFs each other but FF doesn't. Sonic/Kirby are Ninty.

Bowser/Yoshi, Yoshi/Luigi, Bowser/Kirby, and Luigi/Kirby seem to be SFF free as well. Nintendo SFF usually seems to be nastier stuff than Square in general though.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Square LFF is in general worse than Nintendo LFF, but Nintendo SFF is in general worse than Square SFF. Probably this is because Nintendo characters tend to be more universally known and have broader bases of support, but Nintendo fans are usually pretty united on who they support, while Square fans are more diverse.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

The exception here is New Nintendo, stuff from the Gamecube, which seems to LFF each other very heavily. That makes sense because Nintendo's base of support became narrower in line with their market share.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi

Hmmm...GlaDOS doing pretty well with the deep night vote so far. Don't know that she'll be able to bring this under a doubling though.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

As much as I'd love to see a Vivi win, I'm slightly reluctant to call it a likely event at this point. It seems Altair has all the momentum and strength going into the match.

However, for some reason Vivi doesn't seem to get nearly the respect he deserves on the boards. Maybe the fact that both of his first place contest finishes came six years apart and against the same lower-tier Nintendo character makes him slightly forgettable, but this is a guy who got 40% on Zelda and 30% on Sephiroth, and that should be worth something. As for recent stats, it doesn't get more accurate than Zero last year, if you're willing to count LOL 4 ways of course (and if not, then we don't have recent stats on anyone).

So we know Vivi is going to perform at a fairly consistent high-midcarder level. The real question is Altair. Some are pegging him to potentially upset Kirby-if you ask me, that's a bit out there, but the point is expectations for him are high. But what has he done to warrant those?

Altair was new in 2008 and had three contest matches in his first appearance. In the first round, he nearly doubled Lucario and curbstomped fodder. Second round, he once again almost doubled Lucario and also got 57% on Marth and lost to Duke Neukem, which doesn't look nearly as good today as it did two years ago. Third round he lost to Duke again, as well as Link and ZACHFAQS. Then this year, he 60-40'd Liquid Snake, who is probably the most inconsistent character ever. It's a fine piece of work, but not spectacular-chance he was just in the right place at the right time.

Now, the factor that trumps all this is that Altair has reason to be heading up and Vivi has reason to be heading down. For that reason, I think Altair is the favorite to win here. But if Vivi comes out and 55-45s Altair, before we all start wondering 'how did this happen?' consider the possibility that his expectations came from momentum rather than strength.
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Guru contest: 72/76 (1!) Misses: Boss, Altair, Kefka, Missingno
Next upset: Sub-Zero > Roxas