GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 840

LOLContests | Posted 2/19/2010 6:42:29 PM | message detail
If Ryu is a more West Coast guy than Dante/Ryu should have been somewhat closer than it was back in 2003, since it happened on the day of that huge black out in New York area.
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"It smells like a whale ate some cabbage and died in your mouth like a year ago."--Eddie Riggs
Yesmar
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 2/19/2010 6:44:50 PM | message detail
So I guess we finally figured out why the SF morning vote was always so horrible. All the Californians still being asleep, with the rest of America awake.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1762&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
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KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/19/2010 6:46:45 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #451
If Ryu is a more West Coast guy than Dante/Ryu should have been somewhat closer than it was back in 2003, since it happened on the day of that huge black out in New York area.


Heh, now research like that is how you make the stats topic proud.
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LOLContests | Posted 2/19/2010 6:50:39 PM | message detail
It's kind of cool to see all of these vote trends that we had previously assumed were due to school/work trends actually have a very large basis in Geolocation as well.
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"It smells like a whale ate some cabbage and died in your mouth like a year ago."--Eddie Riggs
Yesmar
charmander6000 | Posted 2/19/2010 6:51:02 PM | message detail
That explains the low vote total for that match. I thought it was because Ryu/Dante were bad vote drawers.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 59/72 - Today's Winners: Sonic and Ganondorf
voltch | Posted 2/19/2010 6:51:40 PM | message detail
looks like my texas theory totally fell apart here today.
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Shakes Fist!
creativename | Posted 2/19/2010 6:58:15 PM | message detail
This Street Fighter California vote thing has been one of the more fascinating things this contest to me. That's very interesting.


Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.


While I'm all for this, it's a bit late for CBVII IMO, considering we're already in VIII :) Time to update the sig I think!
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 2/19/2010 7:03:01 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #451
If Ryu is a more West Coast guy than Dante/Ryu should have been somewhat closer than it was back in 2003, since it happened on the day of that huge black out in New York area.


NY is actually voting pretty heavily on the Ken side as well, oddly enough. Really weird that he's losing the US with 33% despite having 40% in NY and 44% in CA.
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KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest.
voltch | Posted 2/19/2010 7:04:50 PM | message detail
Red XIII for CBXIII doods!
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Shakes Fist!
charmander6000 | Posted 2/19/2010 7:05:41 PM | message detail
NY is actually voting pretty heavily on the Ken side as well, oddly enough. Really weird that he's losing the US with 33% despite having 40% in NY and 44% in CA.

Places like Ohio and Pennsylvania have Ganondorf with 70%
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 59/72 - Today's Winners: Sonic and Ganondorf
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 2/19/2010 7:15:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, here are the states that each character has over a 3% improvement on their overall US number:

Ganon - AK, AR, CO, CT, DE, ID, IN, IA, KY, ME, MI, MN, MO, NH, ND, OH, OR, PA, SD, UT, VT, WV, WI
Ken - CA, HI, LA, MT, NV, NM, NY
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KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/19/2010 7:18:08 PM | message detail
Pretty rare to see a variance of 14% between mainland states I imagine.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/19/2010 7:18:31 PM | message detail
(except for the low population states like Wyoming of course!)
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
HaRRicH | Posted 2/19/2010 7:55:03 PM | message detail
If Ryu is a more West Coast guy than Dante/Ryu should have been somewhat closer than it was back in 2003, since it happened on the day of that huge black out in New York area.

Discovery of the month, even if NY supports Ryu too.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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charmander6000 | Posted 2/19/2010 7:55:44 PM | message detail
Match LXXI: (3) Kirby vs. (6) GlaDOS

Last Round

Kirby – 57.53%
Rikku – 42.47%

GlaDOS – 66.78%
Fawful – 33.22%

Analysis

Another match where the winner is obvious, but the percent isn’t. There are a lot of questions of where GlaDOS and Kirby stand, especially after their performances from last round. However I think the match will go as expected in order to set up an interesting match against Sonic or maybe even next round depending on how the next match goes.

I’m not sure if people are overestimating Kirby or underestimating GlaDOS, but there are some people that think Kirby could possibly score the biggest blowout of the round. Looking at last contest Vincent would have trouble outscoring what Link got against Alucard. I would have thought that Rikku’s performance would bring people’s expectations of Kirby back down to Earth. Kirby is still a strong character, but I think people are hyping the little guy a bit much.

While GlaDOS looked pretty impressive against Fawful I think that performance was sadly more because of Fawful being weak rather than GlaDOS being strong. There is still the possibility that Portal characters are weaker this year due to their game aging. While WCC’s match went as expected in my opinion a lot of people were expecting a lot more. I think GlaDOS will be fine, relatively speaking.

Kirby should be pushing from mid to high 60s in this match. As long as he outdoes Ganondorf’s percent he should be fine in future matches. From here on out the Chaos Division should have nothing, but debatable matches which people will be glad to know.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Kirby > Fawful

charmander6000’s Prediction: Kirby wins, 67.15% - 32.85%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 59/72 - Today's Winners: Sonic and Ganondorf
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/19/2010 8:14:53 PM | message detail
I wish we could see how many votes we get per state.

So after this performance, who's the favorite going into next round: Sonic or Ganondorf?

And what kind of performance does Kirby need to give himself favorite status going into round 4?
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Iamthekuzalol | Posted 2/19/2010 8:21:03 PM | message detail
Sonic is the favorite right now due to round 3 being the sprite round though i won't be surprised if Ganon does indeed beat Sonic.

Kirby must score at least 68% on Glados in order to be the favorite, i think. Glados > SFFed Knuckles
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/19/2010 8:24:05 PM | message detail
Sonic's probably a slight favorite due to Bacondorf. As for Kirby, GlaDOS was projected to a bit over 25% on Vincent last year through Falco's round 2 performance, so considering this is a night match, I'd want Kirby to break 70% at least to look good for his match with Sonic.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/19/2010 8:26:18 PM | message detail
Why is everyone (in the Oracle) going so low with Kirby? WCC is stronger than GlaDOS, and he finished with only 54% on The Boss. I doubt GlaDOS is even in Cube's league, and freakin' Boss put a scare in Cube.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 2/19/2010 8:26:55 PM | message detail
Good rebound from Ken. What was the lowest point he as at from the 5 minute mark?

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
red sox 777 | Posted 2/19/2010 8:27:08 PM | message detail
I'm wondering the same thing- I thought I was submitting a low pick with my 68.8% in the Crew.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
RPGuy96 | Posted 2/19/2010 8:28:26 PM | message detail
Why is everyone (in the Oracle) going so low with Kirby? WCC is stronger than GlaDOS, and he finished with only 54% on The Boss. I doubt GlaDOS is even in Cube's league, and freakin' Boss put a scare in Cube.

Vincent only got 70% and Kirby's stuck with a night match. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him go higher, but eh.
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Mustache...and Green...
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/19/2010 8:28:35 PM | message detail
Places like Ohio and Pennsylvania have Ganondorf with 70%

Kickass indeed.

It's also worth mentioning that Ganondorf is doing almost 3% better in the US, and that's even with California pulling Ganondorf down.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 2/19/2010 8:28:44 PM | message detail
GlaDOS scored 30% on Vincent in 2k8, Vincent > Kirby, if anything she should be a little stronger now, and it's a night match.
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"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw
red sox 777 | Posted 2/19/2010 8:31:05 PM | message detail
Ah, that was a prime example of Obvious First Place Factor, that match was, based on how much worse Falco did in round 2. Tonight will be a good test of that, if people don't yet believe it exists.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
Chaotic Mind | Posted 2/19/2010 8:34:54 PM | message detail
I don't think OFPF comes into play when the battle for 2nd place isn't close, though it's possible i suppose.
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"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War
Chaotic Mind | Posted 2/19/2010 8:37:01 PM | message detail
Though looking at it again Falco's R2 performance is boggling unless you take OFPF. Hmm...
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"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War
Magic8Squall | Posted 2/19/2010 8:42:27 PM | message detail

From: Chaotic Mind | #476
I don't think OFPF comes into play when the battle for 2nd place isn't close, though it's possible i suppose.


That's not necessarily true. The OFPUF usually seems to come into play when you have an obvious first place winner, and so people vote for someone else instead. Sort of like what we've been seeing with the Noble Nine so far.
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"Not until the end. Always."
Magic8Squall | Posted 2/19/2010 8:43:35 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #470
Good rebound from Ken. What was the lowest point he as at from the 5 minute mark?


Ken's lowest percentages were 32.57% at the 10 minute mark and 32.98% at the fifteen minute mark. The lowest he's been since the first hour ended was 35.33%.
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paraboxx | Posted 2/19/2010 8:50:21 PM | message detail
If Kirby scores the biggest blowout of the round I'll eat my hat.

And that would be really difficult, because I only have one hat and I don't even know where it is right now.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/19/2010 8:52:10 PM | message detail
Hey I already used the hat joke
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
paraboxx | Posted 2/19/2010 8:54:57 PM | message detail
This is what I get for only reading the last two pages. :(
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/19/2010 8:55:18 PM | message detail
We need to rally Epic Beard Man into this contest. Nobody ****s with him.
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This is good...isn't it? - Big motha****ing Boss
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/19/2010 8:55:52 PM | message detail
Actually I used it like a week ago for the Crono/Missingno match! So I guess it's ok, once per match. *nod nod*
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/19/2010 8:56:18 PM | message detail
Ken with nearly a 45% update! Way to go, California!

If it wouldn't take so long and it probably wouldn't be worth the trouble, it'd be nice to see if any other states seem to disproportionately favor a particular character/game/series.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
Master Moltar | Posted 2/19/2010 9:00:13 PM | message detail
Kirby 100%

7
GlaDOS 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 7

wrecked
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Kirby > GlaDOS (66/76)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/19/2010 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Kirby 100%

6
GlaDOS 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 6

Sweet, a shutout!
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Gaddswell | Posted 2/19/2010 9:00:26 PM | message detail
Kirby 75% 39
GlaDOS 25% 13
TOTAL VOTES 52
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/19/2010 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Kirby 81.91% 77
GlaDOS 18.09% 17
TOTAL VOTES 94

Kirby's board vote is ridiculous.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/19/2010 9:00:36 PM | message detail
Man, not even Portal is a match for Kirby's board vote.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
GrapefruitKing | Posted 2/19/2010 9:00:38 PM | message detail
wow... not looking pretty for GlaDOS
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Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 17th
Today's prediction: Ganondorf with 64.57% Status: Great
RPGuy96 | Posted 2/19/2010 9:00:45 PM | message detail
Kirby 81.55%

84
GlaDOS 18.45%

19
TOTAL VOTES 103

Kirby > Link
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Mustache...and Green...
red sox 777 | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:10 PM | message detail
Kirby freefalling now.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:15 PM | message detail
Already falling pretty quickly. Kirby probably won't finish with 70%+ here.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Chaotic Mind | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:19 PM | message detail
Kirby > Sonic confirmed
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"Flash runs alongside balefire watching marshmallows stop existing" - War
paraboxx | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:21 PM | message detail
*grumbles, starts looking through his closet*
charmander6000 | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:26 PM | message detail
Poor GlaDOS.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 59/72 - Today's Winners: Sonic and Ganondorf
HaRRicH | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:31 PM | message detail
That first thirty seconds was UGLY.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:37 PM | message detail
59.54% for Ganondorf. Seems awfully low.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Master Moltar | Posted 2/19/2010 9:01:51 PM | message detail
kirby > sonic
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Kirby > GlaDOS (66/76)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/