GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 838

red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 1:55:44 PM | message detail
If I could change a single match in my bracket right now, it would be Charizard > Sora.

Agreed on this one. Well, actually it'd probably be to take Missingno to lose to Link, but that would require me to change to Missingno > Crono too, which I simply would not do even after the fact.

As for Red, it was always an upset. I talked up his potential a lot, but it was always potential, and I never thought he was the favorite over MMX. The upset was pretty much dead after the Ocelot match, also.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:08:18 PM | message detail
Quite the ASV for Red right now.

I'm not convinced Charizard should be such a big favorite to beat Sora. I'm still kinda iffy on how much a beatdown of Duke Nukem is really worth. I'll take the match against Kratos as a better indicator.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/17/2010 2:21:05 PM | message detail
And if he gets to close to 60% in that one?

You'd think I'd be feeling better about Sora after the Chrono Crew just bombed (making Bowser's performance look less impressive), but Charizard has stomped all over Bowser's place. Luckily, Char hits a brick wall at Mario. Unluckily, that one 8-point match might be enough to cost me the Guru even if I call everything else correctly.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:22:58 PM | message detail
And if he gets to close to 60% in that one?

Then you can call him the favorite.

But Charizard getting 64% on Duke felt like Kefka getting 60% on Arthas. Impressive for sure, but it feels like there's something we missed somewhere. Kratos has virtually no chance after that craptastic performance against Tails, but I'm just remaining conservative about that performance on Duke.

And surely Midna vs. Duke is a close match, right?

...Right?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 2/17/2010 2:25:22 PM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #046
From: PartOfYourWorld | #045
If I could change a single match in my bracket right now, it would be Charizard > Sora.

I would pick Tifa > Gordon.


hahahahahahah
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:25:55 PM | message detail
Sora does have the day match going for him, although against Nintendo it won't be so big an advantage.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/17/2010 2:26:19 PM | message detail
Charizard will have some great momentum when he gets there, though. I'm expecting him to blast Kratos in such a way that'll get GameFAQs excited, and he'll roll right past L-Block. Plus, I'm feeling uneasy about a Pokemon match on a Pokemon game launch day.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/17/2010 2:27:17 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1778

If Link is stronger since 2004, Mega Man is weaker since then, and MM > MMX as far as their characters are indirectly concerned...yeah, this could get ugly next round. We've already seen their series "battle," too, if you want to call it a fight...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2441

...let's throw this in for good measure, too...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3456

...and at least the original Mega Man games have had something in recent years -- MMX hasn't had anything this decade to my knowledge outside of the MMX-collection, which sold much worse than the MM-collection, which did nothing for Mega Man in 2004. Alucard has a not-really-that-terrible chance at finishing second in this division stat-wise.

Even ignoring all that, let's say Red = Ocelot for our purposes (though Ocelot's lucky here since he went even with Red in a night-match and now Red's facing MMX in a day-match)...Ocelot/Red currently has 39.21% on MMX. Kratos got 39.44% on Revolver in 2008. Neverminding Ocelot's fortune of getting over-rated to some degree here, MMX still doesn't look much stronger than Kratos here.

Link'll destroy MMX before SFF sets in...but we know this.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:30:12 PM | message detail
For what it's worth Frog did very well in the vote-in poll, and using Alucard's performance on Link last night Magus looks appreciably higher than in 2007, so I still think the CT crew did get a boost from CTDS (mostly in 2008).

Charizard's 64% on Duke is doubly impressive because it was done at night against Duke's American flag pic. We'll see how it pans out though.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:30:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, a match involving Pokemon is always a cause for concern these days, but they're not invincible. I think Sora can win. The 'Zard isn't out of his league, I think.

It still feels weird that Charizard is higher on the Nintendo Totem Pole than Bowser is though. I can't wrap my mind around that yet.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 2/17/2010 2:31:17 PM | message detail
MMX is looking good today!
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LOLContests | Posted 2/17/2010 2:32:10 PM | message detail
I don't really think Charizard has much of a chance myself. Wouldn't everyone agree that Midna > Duke pretty safely? She did almost beat Mewtwo.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:32:44 PM | message detail
I can. Imagine Mario vs. Charizard and Mario vs. Bowser. Without looking at the stats, is there any chance Mario loses the latter match? No. Can you imagine the average Nintendo voter siding with Charizard over Mario? For me at least, yes. It's the same reasoning as I used for Mario/Samus.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LOLContests | Posted 2/17/2010 2:32:54 PM | message detail
The one thing that worries me is how popular Duke might have been with that picture.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:34:09 PM | message detail

From: Masato_Tanaka | #061
MMX is looking good today!


...He is?

For the record, based on 2008 Ocelot, MMX is at around 23% on Link, which is pretty bad.

Hmmm...Captain Price vs. Marcus Fenix: Who you got?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:34:46 PM | message detail
Can you imagine the average Nintendo voter siding with Charizard over Mario? For me at least, yes

No more than I can Bowser.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/17/2010 2:34:54 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #063
It's the same reasoning as I used for Mario/Samus.


For the record, Ulti did NOT bring up Mario/Samus
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:38:30 PM | message detail
For the record, Ulti did NOT bring up Mario/Samus

And I am not claiming that it was obvious or that people were stupid for taking Samus.

Anyway, Alucard looks to have made quite the comeback since 2006:

2003: 27.72% on Sephiroth
2006: 35.6% on Auron
2010: 28.21% on Link

Welcome back to the land of the high midcarders, Alucard!
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/17/2010 2:39:17 PM | message detail
Link triples MMX
Link quads Luigi
Link triples Sonic/Kirby (or does worse to Ganon)
Mario routes Charizard/Sora
Link lays down an inconceivably brutal SFF beatdown on Mario, scoring 72%
Jill shocks the world and hits the high 40s against Samus
Samus proves that FFVII has tanked with consecutive 55% wins against Cloud and Seph
Link beats Samus in the finals

Your final extrapolated standings:

1. Link
2. Samus
3. Jill
4. Alucard

Ladies and gentlemen, The Plan.
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creativename | Posted 2/17/2010 2:39:27 PM | message detail
and using Alucard's performance on Link last night Magus looks appreciably higher than in 2007

I'm still not sure where you're getting this from. Setting Mario at 40%, Magus finished at 22.1% on Link in 2K7. This year he finished at 23.4% through Alucard - noting that Alucard was overrated due to the night match. Magus barely budged.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:40:13 PM | message detail
I'm not sure I trust that performance on Link, honestly. Alucard didn't look anywhere near that good last year, and he has no reason to get better.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:41:39 PM | message detail
I'm still not sure where you're getting this from. Setting Mario at 40%, Magus finished at 22.1% on Link in 2K7. This year he finished at 23.4% through Alucard - noting that Alucard was overrated due to the night match. Magus barely budged.

I think I set Mario at 38% on Link in 2007, that's why. That gives 2007 Magus 21% on Link, and 23.4% on Link now gives him 55.13% on 2007 Magus.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:42:26 PM | message detail
Well, I should take that back. He was right about 26% on Link last year. It's a decent boost, but again, I don't know if "Not-Link" had anything to do with the apparently "boost."
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/17/2010 2:43:01 PM | message detail
Mario worth 38% on Link indirectly... I can buy it, but that's at the low low end of his range and he looked even worse in 2008. Assuming that's the case, he could have his hands full with BIG BOSS in a night match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:43:34 PM | message detail
Assuming that's the case, he could have his hands full with BIG BOSS in a night match.

This man knows what he's talking about!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/17/2010 2:44:54 PM | message detail
Funny seeing CT characters fall off, because their popularity comes from one, really good but old game, and yet Alucard seems to be doing pretty good this year.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:44:59 PM | message detail
38% is on the low end of his range? Well it's what he got on Link in 2007, about what he got in 2002 as well. If you push him much higher than that, Sephiroth gets uncomfortably close to Link.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LOLContests | Posted 2/17/2010 2:45:48 PM | message detail
He was right about 26% on Link last year

How does Alucard come out to that? Are Pika's numbers based off of his R3 and R4 performances?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/17/2010 2:48:27 PM | message detail
38% is on the low end of his range? Well it's what he got on Link in 2007

Right, which means you're asking me to presume no Link/Mario SFF. Believe me, I'd like to believe that, because it means BB is about to make what Missingno did look like child's play - but I don't really think that's the case!
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:51:05 PM | message detail
Right, which means you're asking me to presume no Link/Mario SFF. Believe me, I'd like to believe that, because it means BB is about to make what Missingno did look like child's play - but I don't really think that's the case!

Sephiroth won the board vote over Link in that match, because the Nintendo fanbase (or at least the early voters) tried really hard to push Mario into 2nd. I'd think there may have been some rSFF if anything. And Big Boss is not remotely close to 38% on Link (he got only 35% on Mario in 2007), so there's no cause for alarm there.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
RPGuy96 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:52:12 PM | message detail
38% is on the low end of his range? Well it's what he got on Link in 2007, about what he got in 2002 as well. If you push him much higher than that, Sephiroth gets uncomfortably close to Link.

Oh, you're using that match. Shall we also assume that Sephiroth is stronger than Cloud (after all, Seph got 46% while Cloud could only get 42% in the next round) and Mario hangs 70% on Crono and Vincent?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:53:50 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #078
He was right about 26% on Link last year

How does Alucard come out to that? Are Pika's numbers based off of his R3 and R4 performances?


Yeah, pretty sure I used his round 3 performance because it was the only one he wasn't facing a Nintendo character in. For what it's worth, the 2008 stats predict Alucard/Magus within .15%!
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creativename | Posted 2/17/2010 2:55:36 PM | message detail
Mario got 37.47% directly on Link in 2K2 before the Mario boost of 2K5. 38% isn't a good number for him IMO.

I think indirectly, Mario~=Samus~=Snake=40% basically. Those are the numbers I use when making projections.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/17/2010 2:55:40 PM | message detail
And Big Boss is not remotely close to 38% on Link (he got only 35% on Mario in 2007), so there's no cause for alarm there.

The Mario match looks like a heavy underperformance outlier looking at what he pulled in 2k8. Big Boss did to Kirby what most would have expected of Snake, and he'll get to work at his best time here. I don't think BB is 38% on Link, but he wouldn't necessarily need to be in order to win a match versus someone of that level. What are Mario's first 12 hours worth on Link, I wonder?
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:55:59 PM | message detail
It's not really just that match, Mario's always been below 40% on Link.

2003: 38.18% (through Sephiroth and Cloud)
2004: 34.77% (through Crono)
2005: 39.59% (through Sephiroth)

Well I guess 2005 puts him pretty close to 40% on Link, but it was probably his best year too.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 2:58:19 PM | message detail
What are Mario's first 12 hours worth on Link, I wonder?

Based on 2007? 38.86%
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creativename | Posted 2/17/2010 2:58:54 PM | message detail
Mario has likely stayed stable since 2K5. Nothing really says otherwise.

For what it's worth, the 2008 stats predict Alucard/Magus within .15%!

Share these stats my firend! :) Have you posted them somewhere?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 2/17/2010 2:59:40 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Big Boss/Edgeworth and Cloud/Edgeworth last year gives BB an impressive 35.8% on last year's Cloud, which is probably around 34% on Link. That's not far from where I'd put him last year based on the Kirby match, so, yeah, that Mario match looks like an outlier. Either that, or the Metal Gear fanbase finally realized he starred in MGS3.
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creativename | Posted 2/17/2010 2:59:57 PM | message detail
What are Mario's first 12 hours worth on Link, I wonder?

Well not necessarily the best question, since first 12 hour Link isn't worth 50% on Link :) Of course I get what you're saying though.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/17/2010 3:00:12 PM | message detail
Based on 2007? 38.86%

...on second thought, it would probably be better to ask what they're worth on Sephiroth or Cloud considering the trendline <_<
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/17/2010 3:01:20 PM | message detail
Shall we also assume that Sephiroth is stronger than Cloud (after all, Seph got 46% while Cloud could only get 42% in the next round) and Mario hangs 70% on Crono and Vincent?

I don't see what this has to do with anything. You don't have to go through Sephiroth in that match to compare Mario and Link directly. If you do want to go through Sephiroth, guess a percentage for him on Link and then work with Mario's R3 match, where he got 43.35% on Seph with Big Boss and Fox getting fodderized. If you give Seph Cloud's 42% as you say then Mario ends up at 36.41% on Link.
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Missingno's quest to avenge Crono - Round 2: Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 3:01:26 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #087
Mario has likely stayed stable since 2K5. Nothing really says otherwise.

For what it's worth, the 2008 stats predict Alucard/Magus within .15%!

Share these stats my firend! :) Have you posted them somewhere?


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/2008_X-Stats

Both mine and charmander's stats are there, and the raw stats are posted at the bottom.

Speaking of raw stats, Big Boss beats Mario with 51.58% based on those!

Believe.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/17/2010 3:16:30 PM | message detail
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/cb8/cb8-67.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/cb8/cb8-68.jpg

Suspense remains.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/17/2010 3:19:03 PM | message detail
Luigi's Mansion Luigi? He looks like he's terrified of Ammy.

Make your time, Weegi.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/17/2010 3:21:10 PM | message detail
Boss looks determined to find something on WCC that she can armbar.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/17/2010 3:23:34 PM | message detail
This is why Luigi stopped being my favorite of the two Mario brothers. They've made him into such a *****. Ammy looks like he about to eat him.

The second picture perfectly captures The Boss. Even in the face of WCC, the cutest greatest non-stabbing friend in the world, and she STILL doesn't smile. Truly the saddest, most tragic female video game character ever.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 2/17/2010 3:24:54 PM | message detail
augh Luigi's Mansion sighting
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vcharon | Posted 2/17/2010 3:25:39 PM | message detail
Have to love all the jokes who have a grand total of one usable pic each.
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vcharon | Posted 2/17/2010 3:26:19 PM | message detail
Also lol Luigi, too much.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/17/2010 3:28:52 PM | message detail
I will take this time to mention Luigi's Mansion is an underapperciated game, and my favorite of the 3d Mario titles on the Gamecube(Luigi Mansion > Super Mario Sunshine YEAH I SAID IT BIG WHOOP WANNA FIGHT ABOUT IT)
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