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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 831

Team Aqua Elite (36) | Board List | Topic List | Topic Closed | Track Topic
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paulg235 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:31:55 AM | message detail
Blaring Magus' theme actually made Crono gain?
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The Gamer In Me
"paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane
Me_Pie_Three | Posted 2/14/2010 11:32:11 AM | message detail
gogogo
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I keep on trying 'til I run out of cake
Steam ID: Me_Pie_Three
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 11:34:30 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #250
Eh we haven't gotten through the meat of the day vote yet. Yeah Crono's gonna have those last lethal hours but if MissingNo is following day trends he could be down 1500 by then.


Weekend.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/14/2010 11:34:36 AM | message detail
Sucks it's Valentine's Day and I won't see a huge chunk of this come dinner.

God bless thee, creativename's site.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:35:00 AM | message detail
Crono reached his percentage nadir against Bowser at 3 PM, and Knuckles's lead against Magus peaked at 5:50 (don't remember when his percentage peaked, presumably a couple of hours before that).
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
OrangeKidJosh | Posted 2/14/2010 11:35:07 AM | message detail
My 11 year old brother thinks it is cool that missingno is doing well. What is this "people don't know him" thing? That's the same logic that thought vincent would be weak because he's a hidden character
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:36:23 AM | message detail
Just like that, Missingno's back.
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kirbyparufo | Posted 2/14/2010 11:37:08 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
kirbyparufo | Posted 2/14/2010 11:37:19 AM | message detail
30 vote gain for Missingno.
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Proud to be EPic.
2009-10 New Jersey Nets: 4-48 - Chasing history!
red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:37:41 AM | message detail
Missingno gets most of it back. That's fine- Crono can afford to go even this hour.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/14/2010 11:38:15 AM | message detail
He's going to go even for the next couple hours too
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/14/2010 11:38:30 AM | message detail
Missingno: **** this, give my 600+ lead back. Whatcha gotta say now?
Crono: ....*readies Luminaire*
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Currently not on the CBVIII Leaderboard V_V
Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/14/2010 11:38:31 AM | message detail
(if he's lucky)
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/14/2010 11:39:02 AM | message detail
Crono is never going to win this if this match plays out similarly to L-Block/Snake in round 4 of 2007 where Snake just kept getting stalled way too often to pull any meaningful comeback.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:39:18 AM | message detail
The interesting thing is that that gain was all Crono dropping. Missingno's votals don't seem to be responding to stuffing/rallying dependant on whether he's being cut or gaining.

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Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 11:40:09 AM | message detail
People need to stop looking at these trends as Joke vs. CT. This is Pokemon vs. CT. Missingno isn't going to fall off from where he is now. To win this, Crono is going to need to step up.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:41:24 AM | message detail
Pokemon vs. CT is fine too. Crono can win with something like:

3: 50%
4: 50%
5: 50%
6: 50%
7: 51%
8: 51%
9: 51%
10: 52%
11: 52%
12: 53%
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Lightning Strikes | Posted 2/14/2010 11:41:29 AM | message detail
If they've played RBY, they'll almost definitey know Missingno.

Last year, RBY seriously impressed and is probably a top 5 game. So yeah.
Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:42:49 AM | message detail
401-404, a three vote gain.

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Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/14/2010 11:45:53 AM | message detail
If Crono comes back to win I will eat my hat.

I don't actually own a hat though
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
kirbyparufo | Posted 2/14/2010 11:45:57 AM | message detail
1 vote cut.
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Proud to be EPic.
2009-10 New Jersey Nets: 4-48 - Chasing history!
Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:48:41 AM | message detail
Missingno posts its weakest update, and Crono his second weakest. If either of them had got what they did the previous update there would've been a 40 vote gain/cut.

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Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 2/14/2010 11:51:26 AM | message detail
49 percent barrier
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:51:27 AM | message detail
Congrats Crono, you've finally gotten Missingno under 51%
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:51:34 AM | message detail
Over 49% we go.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/14/2010 11:51:38 AM | message detail
It seems out none of the weekend day vote matches had any big movements from now to the end of the match. The only exceptions are Big Boss Vs. Edgeworth and Altair Vs. Liquid Snake, in which they just barely managed to move a single percent, which is the same change that Crono needs. That means Crono would need the biggest weekend day vote swing in the contest so far to win.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/14/2010 11:51:57 AM | message detail
The first tie of the match and Missingno under 51% ever since the second update of the match happened.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/14/2010 11:53:31 AM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #276
It seems out none of the weekend day vote matches had any big movements from now to the end of the match. The only exceptions are Big Boss Vs. Edgeworth and Altair Vs. Liquid Snake, in which they just barely managed to move a single percent, which is the same change that Crono needs. That means Crono would need the biggest weekend day vote swing in the contest so far to win.


Yeah, I'm not liking the chances of Crono having the biggest weekend day vote swing against a Pokemon.
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I Am Albion Hero!
ShatteredElysium | Posted 2/14/2010 11:55:03 AM | message detail
This is just the mandatory close CT match for the contest.
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Oracle Challenge 2k10 ~~~ Individual: 4th ~~~ Team: 5th (Partner BZer0)
LOLContests | Posted 2/14/2010 11:55:23 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not liking the chances of Crono having the biggest weekend day vote swing against a Pokemon.

Moving 1% at these percentages is less than either of the two above examples.
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"Your actions have meaning only if they hold true to your ideals."--Ramza Beoulve
Yesmar
Sonic_Factor | Posted 2/14/2010 11:56:05 AM | message detail
die crono die! nooo i sense comback
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CP724 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:56:16 AM | message detail
Big cut.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 2/14/2010 11:56:30 AM | message detail
I wonder if we'll see a bandwagon effect if Missingno. wins here. He could end up making Crono look very good in the end, like say if excitement for him builds to a level where he beats Seph or even Link.

Oh well, guess this is the probably end of the Noble Nine, unless Crono can stage a meaningful comeback.
kirbyparufo | Posted 2/14/2010 11:57:23 AM | message detail
Missingo. has fallen flat. Crono isn't doing great, but he is still far better off at the moment. This is probably going to be really close.
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Proud to be EPic.
2009-10 New Jersey Nets: 4-48 - Chasing history!
Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/14/2010 11:59:53 AM | message detail
This is becoming a contest of who can suck less. >.>

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Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/14/2010 12:00:21 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #280
Yeah, I'm not liking the chances of Crono having the biggest weekend day vote swing against a Pokemon.

Moving 1% at these percentages is less than either of the two above examples.


You wouldn't happen to have an article or something that explains this statically would you? I hear it a lot and I want to know the mathematics behind it. Not that I doubt it or anything, though I do find it strange that if it's true, we should see percent moving a lot less in blowouts but honestly I never noticed much of a difference in any match. The overall percent swings that we actually SEE seem to be nearly about the same in 50-50 matches as they do in 75-25s.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Gooper Blooper | Posted 2/14/2010 12:00:52 PM | message detail
Oh crap, Crono you better stay down. You're not taking this away from me.
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082
CP724 | Posted 2/14/2010 12:01:33 PM | message detail
Another cut, can someone post percentages for that last hour? Cheers
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/14/2010 12:01:43 PM | message detail
Crono won that hour by 12 votes.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/14/2010 12:02:13 PM | message detail
The best way for this match to go would be crono comes back, wins it on final update, but then bacon makes a topic about taking away stuffing votes for crono, giving missingno the win

the board would EXPLODE
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I Am Albion Hero!
ShatteredElysium | Posted 2/14/2010 12:02:32 PM | message detail
Oh god, I'm gonna miss the potential epic due to being in the UK and needing to sleep for work.
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PSN ~ Soidisant
Oracle Challenge 2k10 ~~~ Individual: 4th ~~~ Team: 5th (Partner BZer0)
LOLContests | Posted 2/14/2010 12:02:56 PM | message detail
You wouldn't happen to have an article or something that explains this statically would you? I hear it a lot and I want to know the mathematics behind it. Not that I doubt it or anything, though I do find it strange that if it's true, we should see percent moving a lot less in blowouts but honestly I never noticed much of a difference in any match. The overall percent swings that we actually SEE seem to be nearly about the same in 50-50 matches as they do in 75-25s.

Moving 1 percentage point when you have 48 percentage points is only moving 1/48th of your total percentage. Moving 1 percentage point when you have say 15 percentage points is moving 1/15 of your total percentage.

I'm not entirely sure if this is correct. It makes sense to me, but math is not a particular strong suit of mine.
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"Your actions have meaning only if they hold true to your ideals."--Ramza Beoulve
Yesmar
xp1337 | Posted 2/14/2010 12:04:05 PM | message detail
From: Cyclo_Reaper | #290
The best way for this match to go would be crono comes back, wins it on final update, but then bacon makes a topic about taking away stuffing votes for crono, giving missingno the win

the board would EXPLODE

But then extends the match 15 minutes during which Crono comes back again, this time for good.
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SC2k10 (50/57) Vincent v Guybrush
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/14/2010 12:05:05 PM | message detail
I understand the logic. It's just the the actual evidence/results seems to contradict it.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 12:05:53 PM | message detail
You wouldn't happen to have an article or something that explains this statically would you? I hear it a lot and I want to know the mathematics behind it. Not that I doubt it or anything, though I do find it strange that if it's true, we should see percent moving a lot less in blowouts but honestly I never noticed much of a difference in any match. The overall percent swings that we actually SEE seem to be nearly about the same in 50-50 matches as they do in 75-25s.

I'm not sure what the statistical logic behind it is either, though it makes sense intuitively.

Anyway, the situation is different here from previous weekend day matches, because we've never really had 2 characters with a strong day/night difference before. If Missingno is going to follow pokemon trends, we will see that today, and if he's going to follow joke trends, then all the better for Crono.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
paulg235 | Posted 2/14/2010 12:06:55 PM | message detail
2 vote cut, but it looks like No has another vote gain accomming.
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The Gamer In Me
"paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/14/2010 12:07:00 PM | message detail
Wait, a minute. It's true that ONE person has to move 1/15 of his percentage, but doesn't that mean that means the OTHER person only has to move 1/85th. So it balances out. 2 people move at once. 2 people moving 1/50th of their percentage would be the same as one person moving 1/85th and one person moving 1/15th
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 2/14/2010 12:08:21 PM | message detail
3 updates is a trend?

Missingno by the hour:

1:00 | 51.15%
2:00 | 51.43%
3:00 | 49.94%
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/14/2010 12:09:34 PM | message detail
LOL corno
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kirbyparufo | Posted 2/14/2010 12:11:15 PM | message detail
5 vote cut.
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Proud to be EPic.
2009-10 New Jersey Nets: 4-48 - Chasing history!