GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 829

UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/13/2010 9:36:01 AM | message detail
Stop nominating Guybrush.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/13/2010 9:36:46 AM | message detail
Uh, Vincent Valentine is one of your favorite characters, you have no right to ***** about who nominates who.
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Currently not on the CBVIII Leaderboard V_V
Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/13/2010 9:38:15 AM | message detail
I didn't nominate Vincent, try again.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/13/2010 9:38:47 AM | message detail
Never said you did, learn to read.
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Currently not on the CBVIII Leaderboard V_V
Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/13/2010 9:39:42 AM | message detail
Then stop whining. Guybrush is getting exactly what he deserves (again) for wasting someone else's spot.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
red sox 777 | Posted 2/13/2010 9:42:49 AM | message detail
My tentative nominations for next year:

Guru pick
Crono
Magus
Frog
Robo
Lucca
Epona
Saria
Malon
Zack
Rufus Shinra
Red XIII
Vincent
Tifa
Aeris

Only nominating from top 6 games, since everyone at last agrees that we should purge fodder from the contest!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/13/2010 9:42:53 AM | message detail
Oh get off the soapbox. If someone wants to keep nominating one of there favorite characters, so be it. The Guybrush fanatics get to see him make the field, and Vincent fanatics like yourself can squeal in delight that he's totally destroying him.
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 9:43:51 AM | message detail
Nothing wrong with liking Vincent.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/13/2010 9:45:19 AM | message detail
There is something wrong in liking Rinoa, though >_>
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/13/2010 9:47:56 AM | message detail
We SHOULD purge fodder from the contest.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 9:50:36 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #009
There is something wrong in liking Rinoa, though >_>


Nothing wrong with that either.
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/13/2010 9:50:39 AM | message detail
Just have Noble Nine matches for the whole winter, until every single NNer have faced each other.

Oh happy day, something tell Bacon about this idea ASAP!
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 10:01:20 AM | message detail
Chart from the night match:

Time | Sephiroth | Marth | Votes
0:05 | 65.03% | 34.97% | 1158
1:00 | 68.04% | 31.96% | 9302
2:00 | 69.28% | 30.72% | 6140
3:00 | 71.94% | 28.06% | 4744
4:00 | 72.97% | 27.03% | 3663
5:00 | 74.08% | 25.92% | 3090
6:00 | 74.92% | 25.08% | 2963
7:00 | 76.08% | 23.92% | 2759
8:00 | 75.26% | 24.74% | 3072
9:00 | 73.90% | 26.10% | 3690
10:00 | 71.61% | 28.39% | 4674
11:00 | 72.47% | 27.53% | 5231
12:00 | 71.10% | 28.90% | 5402

Sephiroth comes close to tripling Marth during the deep night, but Marth does a decent job of recovering during the morning.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
nintendogirl1 | Posted 2/13/2010 10:03:02 AM | message detail
http://bionicbrian.com/word/stuff/haters_gonna_hate.gif
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Suck it.
creativename | Posted 2/13/2010 10:03:15 AM | message detail
this has me wondering, do you think people ever end up purchasing games from characters they've seen in the contest based on how they did?

Of course. But that's hardly a rationale for having Guybrush in as opposed to new characters - those new characters appearing would be just as likely to get people to play their games instead.

Probably more likely to play their games actually, since they'd undoubtedly do better than Guybrush, and doing well likely gets people's attention more.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 2/13/2010 10:05:08 AM | message detail
I'll get a 500 one day, dammit.

Anyway.
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"Go and read some more Wikipedia I'm sure they have a good article on spases." - Lil69Leo
red sox 777 | Posted 2/13/2010 10:05:18 AM | message detail
Pull yourself together Vincent, and start rising again. You need to at least make Guybrush/Kerrigan an even match!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/13/2010 10:05:20 AM | message detail
http://i47.tinypic.com/nwzonc.jpg

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Yoblazer: http://i29.tinypic.com/dqhyf5.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/13/2010 10:05:57 AM | message detail
I'm sure the same people who want to stop nominating Guybrush are the people who nominate characters like Edgeworth and Geno.
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http://cache-07.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/500x_lp2_x10_005.jpg
I Am Albion Hero!
voltch | Posted 2/13/2010 10:06:31 AM | message detail
I'm not for guybrush or new characters in particular, it's just that simply being in contest where hundreds of thansands of people see you, enough people might check you out, but that has no bearing on contest strength in the end.
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Shakes Fist!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/13/2010 10:06:56 AM | message detail
Wow, a 500 related to the discussion. Awesome.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
creativename | Posted 2/13/2010 10:07:00 AM | message detail
And Leon is right that contest exposure will probably only increase your strength if you actually do well. Someone who had never played Chrono Trigger and saw Crono going toe to toe with Mario late in the contest would wonder, "who is this Crono and how on earth is he beating Mario?" Someone who sees Vincent beating Guybrush here will not find any reason to play Monkey Island because of it.

Well said.

The "contest appearances get people to play their games" rationale only supports newer characters - they would do better, and also we've already seen Guybrush. Even if you have a new character equally as weak (as unlikely as that would be), 4 years of different turbofodder characters probably results in a higher sum of "people playing a game they otherwise wouldn't have" than 4 years of just Guybrush.
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gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 10:07:53 AM | message detail
And basically what this argument boils down to is that we've got two groups of people: The "I just want characters I like in these contests, no matter how they do!" people (who in turn call the other side elitist while at the same time acting snobby themselves, quite frankly) and the "I just want strong characters who provide good contest matches!" people (who in turn think the other side is dumb for wanting fodder in these contests).

It's just a matter of opinion for me. I just want good matches from this contest. Vyse is one of my favorite characters ever, but I didn't vote for him in the vote-in poll because I didn't want to see him get in the contest and do badly again.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/13/2010 10:07:55 AM | message detail
Here's a new project. With so much fodder in the contests, let's figure out characters we should focus on getting in that would do better than most of these people.

There's what, Bahamut and Blastoise so far? Still behind getting Goomba into the contest as well.
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Not Wylvane
LOLContests | Posted 2/13/2010 10:08:59 AM | message detail
I'm sure the same people who want to stop nominating Guybrush are the people who nominate characters like Edgeworth and Geno.

I'm for eliminating Edgeworth! Geno has never really gotten a fair match, although I would have no qualms with him being eliminated as well.
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"War is where the young and stupid are tricked by the old and bitter into killing each other"--Niko Bellic
Yesmar
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/13/2010 10:09:00 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #024
Here's a new project. With so much fodder in the contests, let's figure out characters we should focus on getting in that would do better than most of these people.

There's what, Bahamut and Blastoise so far? Still behind getting Goomba into the contest as well.


BAYONETTA GODDAMNIT
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/13/2010 10:09:08 AM | message detail
Epona would probably be matching Vincent's percentage right now.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
XIII_rocks | Posted 2/13/2010 10:09:35 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/13/2010 10:09:41 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #023
"I just want strong characters who provide good contest matches!"


If we truly get this, it would be nothing but Square/Nintendo, and a few other characters from capcom/konami. Do we really want that? There would be no variety at all.
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http://cache-07.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/500x_lp2_x10_005.jpg
I Am Albion Hero!
red sox 777 | Posted 2/13/2010 10:09:50 AM | message detail
23 hours until the biggest match of the first round, everyone! Time to go manipulate the stats to show how obvious Crono > Sephiroth is.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/13/2010 10:09:56 AM | message detail
Squirtle would be stronger than Blastoise.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/13/2010 10:10:04 AM | message detail
Or even what other fodder you'd like to see, and I mean potential high-fodder, not the next Tanner.

I think Bartz could be potentially high-fodder after Dissidia.
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 10:10:16 AM | message detail

From: Cyclo_Reaper | #029
If we truly get this, it would be nothing but Square/Nintendo, and a few other characters from capcom/konami. Do we really want that? There would be no variety at all.


I don't care about variety.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
XIII_rocks | Posted 2/13/2010 10:10:54 AM | message detail
And basically what this argument boils down to is that we've got two groups of people: The "I just want characters I like in these contests, no matter how they do!" people (who in turn call the other side elitist while at the same time acting snobby themselves, quite frankly) and the "I just want strong characters who provide good contest matches!" people (who in turn think the other side is dumb for wanting fodder in these contests).

Who exactly are you tarring with this Brush? Let's not beat around the bush here.
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"Go and read some more Wikipedia I'm sure they have a good article on spases." - Lil69Leo
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 10:11:04 AM | message detail
Who exactly are you tarring with this brush? Let's not beat around the bush here.

No one in particular. Just about all of them are acting that way, to be honest, and it's pretty silly.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/13/2010 10:11:22 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #031
Squirtle would be stronger than Blastoise.


I don't know, I think Blastoise would have the edge there. Blastoise also has the badass factor that Charizard has, and nobody would really debate Charmander beating Charizard.

No question that Bulbasaur would stomp Venusaur, though.
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Not Wylvane
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/13/2010 10:11:31 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #033
I don't care about variety.


Obviously not. You probably want to get rid of conference winners in the NCAA Tourney as well I take it.
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http://cache-07.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/500x_lp2_x10_005.jpg
I Am Albion Hero!
creativename | Posted 2/13/2010 10:11:55 AM | message detail
Still behind getting Goomba into the contest as well.

Goomba aw hell yeah, I've been wanting him in since 2K3. Goomba would wreck face.


And basically what this argument boils down to is that we've got two groups of people: The "I just want characters I like in these contests, no matter how they do!" people (who in turn call the other side elitist while at the same time acting snobby themselves, quite frankly) and the "I just want strong characters who provide good contest matches!" people (who in turn think the other side is dumb for wanting fodder in these contests).

I think most of us are in between. Or at least the anti-Guybrush group anyway - I doubt most of us are as extreme as you say, or extreme at all. We'd ALL love for our beloved niche characters to make a contest - that would put a smile on anyone's face.

However, once is typically enough for turbofodder, because again they're just not *fun*. The only enjoyable turbofodder matches are a few CATS matches, and truly epic beatdowns like Tanner. If you prove yourself a totally boring weakling once, there's not much reason you should appear again.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/13/2010 10:12:27 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #033
I don't care about variety.


WE HAVE COME TO TERMS
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Currently not on the CBVIII Leaderboard V_V
Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 10:12:38 AM | message detail

From: Cyclo_Reaper | #037
Obviously not. You probably want to get rid of conference winners in the NCAA Tourney as well I take it.


Again, bringing sports into this is a bad, bad, bad, bad comparison. A team like George Mason can reach the Final Four and have a dream season. Someone like Laharl never will.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
XIII_rocks | Posted 2/13/2010 10:12:53 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #033
I don't care about variety.


Then you care about a dead contest for me. I don't see how it's fun to see 30-odd FF characters and Link's friend from his second CDi outing, or whatever.

Variety is the spice of life or something.
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"Go and read some more Wikipedia I'm sure they have a good article on spases." - Lil69Leo
charmander6000 | Posted 2/13/2010 10:12:55 AM | message detail
Here's a new project. With so much fodder in the contests, let's figure out characters we should focus on getting in that would do better than most of these people.

You mean like a Nomination Rally Tournament?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 46/56 - Today's Winners: Sephiroth and Vincent
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/13/2010 10:12:57 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/13/2010 10:13:01 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #035
Who exactly are you tarring with this brush? Let's not beat around the bush here.

No one in particular. Just about all of them are acting that way, to be honest, and it's pretty silly.


Funny you're suddenly acting like you're above all this when you've been just as involved in this discussion as everyone else.

I don't see anyone else from either side trying to cop out here, so I don't see why you should suddenly decide to do so.
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/13/2010 10:13:58 AM | message detail
I never said I was above it all. I'm getting kinda tired of arguing about it though.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/13/2010 10:14:37 AM | message detail
I want whoever gets the nominations to get in, and that's pretty much it. The board's competition thing is a good way to get in a few (possibly) strong returners/newcomers who can't get the nominations for whatever reason.

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Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/13/2010 10:14:51 AM | message detail

From: creativename | #038
The only enjoyable turbofodder matches are a few CATS matches


What makes them any better than Guybrush? Because you prefer CATS to Guybrush?
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http://cache-07.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/02/500x_lp2_x10_005.jpg
I Am Albion Hero!
red sox 777 | Posted 2/13/2010 10:15:00 AM | message detail
I've been behind having the strongest characters for years. I do see the value in having some diversity though- but for me that means a small number of characters brought in for diversity, less than we have now. The current nomination system, indeed, stops Nintendo and Square from having as many characters as they deserve based purely on strength.

Why not have 10 FFVII characters if they're all strong enough to make it? The most exciting matches are always Nintendo vs. Square anyway.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/13/2010 10:15:28 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #042
Here's a new project. With so much fodder in the contests, let's figure out characters we should focus on getting in that would do better than most of these people.

You mean like a Nomination Rally Tournament?


Just trying to get some names thrown out there. Figure it'd be a better discussion topic than continuing an argument that's pretty much at a standstill now. Plus I'm curious what potential new fodder we should try to get in to replace the current stale fodder.
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Not Wylvane
XIII_rocks | Posted 2/13/2010 10:15:35 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #035
Who exactly are you tarring with this brush? Let's not beat around the bush here.

No one in particular. Just about all of them are acting that way, to be honest, and it's pretty silly.


Oh right. Well, you're wrong, let's be honest here. It's not snobby to defend yourself against someone like vcharon, who stated repeatedly that we should not enjoy Guybrush making the tournament if you're in the stats topic.
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"Go and read some more Wikipedia I'm sure they have a good article on spases." - Lil69Leo