GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 825

nintendogirl1 | Posted 2/9/2010 9:09:44 PM | message detail
Crono is SCREWWWWWED

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Best glitch ever.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/9/2010 9:23:43 PM | message detail
Jak beats Yoshi on Valentine's Day due to the "Hating cute things on Valentine's Day because you don't have a girlfriend" Factor!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 2/9/2010 9:41:23 PM | message detail
XFD Banjo is so pathetic.
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CBVIII:46/50 -46 pts,tied for 57th- L:Ocelot,Liquid,Phoenix,KratosA
Night Pick:Pikachu Day Pick:Shepard
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/9/2010 9:41:32 PM | message detail
Shepard Punch!
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Not Wylvane
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/9/2010 9:41:46 PM | message detail
What an amazing final post
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/9/2010 9:42:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 2/9/2010 9:42:45 PM | message detail
Crono? Crono will do great, he beat Pikachu last year!

FFVII Collapse + Sprite Round + CTDS Boost + Crono being awesome = Crono > Sephiroth
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/9/2010 9:42:51 PM | message detail
Repeating it here cuz people may not have seen it in the past topic

Sure, this is impressive, but does Pikachu really have enough to beat Snake, even with maximum pic advantage? Then again, I'm of the opinion that match pictures don't matter that much, less than 1% for sure.

In a normal match, Snake would beat him 58% most likely. But we're dealing with Solid **** in round 3. You know, the one who almost lost to FROG.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2wmghtl.jpg
I Am Albion Hero!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/9/2010 9:43:03 PM | message detail
XFD Banjo is so pathetic.

Indeed. *pummels Banjo while offstage, then finishes with a Falcon Punch* You suck!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/9/2010 9:43:33 PM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #004
Shepard Punch!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnEDQc-FrCo
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Currently 40th on the CBVIII Leaderboard ^_^
Dante > Cloud: ITS HAPPENING
red sox 777 | Posted 2/9/2010 9:44:21 PM | message detail
Albion, the problem is Snake would beat Pikachu with much more than 58% normally. I agree that a 58-42 gap normally would probably close to around 50-50 between sprite round Snake and a character who's good in the sprite round (such as Crono, Megaman, or pokemon).
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/9/2010 9:44:39 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #007
Crono? Crono will do great, he beat Pikachu last year!

FFVII Collapse + Sprite Round + CTDS Boost + Crono being awesome = Crono > Sephiroth


If Crono > Pikachu and Snake > Sephiroth, if Pikachu upsets Snake, then it's only logical that Crono > Sephiroth!
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Not Wylvane
red sox 777 | Posted 2/9/2010 9:45:58 PM | message detail
Although Pikachu beating Snake would make me laugh.....and laugh.....and laugh. Now THAT would be a good way for the Noble Nine to be broken.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 2/9/2010 9:46:00 PM | message detail
...yikes. I think I'd consider taking Guybrush Threepwood over Banjo at this point.

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Chop Chop Master Onion for Character Battle '11!
Kick, punch, it's all in the mind!
paulg235 | Posted 2/9/2010 9:47:14 PM | message detail
This is all Banjo being complete fodder. Even Cloud would be 80-20'ing his ass, now.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/9/2010 10:00:41 PM | message detail
In a normal match, Snake would beat him 58% most likely.

Since when was Pikachu equal to Squall?
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/9/2010 10:05:38 PM | message detail
Chaotic Mind
Posted 2/10/2010 12:22:30 AM
message detail I'm still not even sure Shepard wins. I have no faith in him after his lackluster performance in 2k8.

Problem is i have no faith in Ellis either, so i have no idea where to go for this match.


Except Mass Effect 2 came out 2 weeks ago, and was basically to the Mass Effect franchise what Street Fighter 2 was to the SF franchise.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/9/2010 10:26:19 PM | message detail
We agree Pikachu > Mewtwo, right?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3297


Pikachu actually BEATS Squall!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/9/2010 10:26:56 PM | message detail
I will end you.

Once I get your sig anyway.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/9/2010 10:27:26 PM | message detail
So, now that we've seen this, I'll ask it again: how many of us would be willing to take Pikachu > Ganondorf?
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/9/2010 10:27:59 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #020
So, now that we've seen this, I'll ask it again: how many of us would be willing to take Pikachu > Ganondorf?


Do I think Pikachu gets 59%+ indirectly against Mewtwo?

Hmmm...Probably not.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/9/2010 10:31:14 PM | message detail
I think Pikachu would push for 55% on a common opponent with Mewtwo...

...but Charizard's looked good enough to take Ganondorf down. Not that he will -- I certainly want to see more from both of them this year -- but it's looking like the Poke-chain goes Charizard > Pikachu > Mewtwo thus far.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 2/9/2010 11:46:02 PM | message detail
New pictures are pretty damn cool.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/10/2010 12:27:48 AM | message detail
Wow, Crono *is* screwed. Pikachu getting 75% on anyone or anything at night is sick. Crono during the day against this newfound RBY insanity is done for.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
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greatone10 | Posted 2/10/2010 12:36:53 AM | message detail
I would keep in mind that Banjo is practically a Nintendo character, and his 1st game came out during the same year as Red/Blue. In other words, there's definitely a shared fanbase and its obvious that time has been much kinder to Pokemon.

This is impressive without at doubt, but I wouldn't take Pikachu to be THAT strong.
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This space reserved for CBVIII Guru Contest Winner.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/10/2010 12:43:15 AM | message detail
We've seen Red, Mewtwo, THE ZARD and Pikachu all do as good as expected or better. There's no reason to sell Missingno short, especially during a day match against Crono.

Although yes, I agree this is an SFF match. It's just weird seeing Pikachu do this when his only other 1v1 win was eked against PaRappa in 2002.
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in.
Cyclo_Reaper | Posted 2/10/2010 12:54:12 AM | message detail
Pikachu has to be the one Pokemon who doesn't get a great board vote and falls the rest of the match.
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I Am Albion Hero!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 2/10/2010 12:55:35 AM | message detail
Pikachu is a god damn tank.
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Elephant Talk: A New Kind Of Music Blog!
http://elephantmusictalk.blogspot.com/
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/10/2010 4:47:28 AM | message detail
We've seen Red, Mewtwo, THE ZARD and Pikachu all do as good as expected or better. There's no reason to sell Missingno short, especially during a day match against Crono.

Although yes, I agree this is an SFF match. It's just weird seeing Pikachu do this when his only other 1v1 win was eked against PaRappa in 2002.


Red and Mewtwo jobbed. Charizard looked great but that could have been Duke Nukem completely jobbing. He doesn't look that great when you use Duke's 1v1 numbers. Today is an SFF beatdown that at least SOME of you should have expected. I'm not too impressed. I mean, we're talking about Banjo here. He's bottom feeder.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/10/2010 4:49:42 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 2/10/2010 7:47:28 AM | #029
Red and Mewtwo jobbed.


Even for you, this is a joke post. At WORST, Red is equal to a non-SFFd Pac-Man. At best, he's Jill Valentine.
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charmander6000 | Posted 2/10/2010 4:53:16 AM | message detail
Lies, Red was suppose to defeat MMX

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 42/50 - Today's Winners: Pikachu and Ellis
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/10/2010 4:58:10 AM | message detail
Mewtwo did exactly as he was expected to do against Ganondorf.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/10/2010 5:08:45 AM | message detail
It's as if Turtle just throws random words together.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/10/2010 5:09:52 AM | message detail
I wouldn't even give him that much credit.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/10/2010 5:27:01 AM | message detail
Wow, Crono *is* screwed. Pikachu getting 75% on anyone or anything at night is sick. Crono during the day against this newfound RBY insanity is done for.

Except that, you know, Crono beat Pikachu during every hour last year.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 2/10/2010 5:53:38 AM | message detail
Joke characters and pokemon characters are all looking quite impressive so far and Missingno easily has the best vote-in performance. With a better day vote, joke character appeal and a solid pokemon fanbase to rely on, I think Crono better pray hard that he can survive.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/10/2010 6:08:55 AM | message detail
Wait a second why are people saying that a Noble Niner could lose in the first round? I just don't get it.

Seriously, I just flat out do not get this whole Missingno > Crono thing. Do you think Missingno would beat Vincent? I don't, so...yeah.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/10/2010 6:10:13 AM | message detail
Sorry for the double post, but...yeah, Ridley's performance makes me worry about Freeman. If Ridley can boost from Brawl, then so can Peach, right? After all, Peach > Ridley, right?
voltch | Posted 2/10/2010 6:12:02 AM | message detail
come on round 2, ou can not come any sooner.
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Shakes Fist!
Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:16:27 AM | message detail
Lightning put up 36% on Sonic, and 9.41% in the vote in poll, with no FF characters to hurt her. In the same poll Missingno put up 15.55%, whilst presumably being hurt by Mudkip and Jigglypuff. Crono is presumably not miles ahead of Sonic. Missingno presumably has rally/joke value. Work it out.

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Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
red sox 777 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:17:21 AM | message detail
I'm nervous about Crono/Missingno just because it's Crono, but objectively, there's nothing to fear. Crono's already beaten the strongest joke and the strongest pokemon multiple times, easily in each time. If jokes and pokemon have looked impressive this year- that's only because they look close to where they were in 4-ways instead of vastly weaker like some people expected.

And about that vote-in poll- would L-Block not have gotten more than 15% in Missingno's place? The very next day, in a stronger poll, Frog almost equaled Missingno's percentage. Missingno ended at 60% against The Boss who was being held down by Raiden- a good result for him but certainly not Crono level.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
ExThaNemesis | Posted 2/10/2010 6:19:04 AM | message detail
Man, I just looked at things and Gordon Freeman losing would be the best result for me. Ngirl and I have practically the same bracket except she's got Sub-Zero, and Dante winning in the 2nd round. Gordon Freeman is our only other difference, and if he jobs in the 1st round, I can make up all the points I'm gonna lose on Sub-Zero(and WCC I just realized).

So go Peach!
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
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charmander6000 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:20:19 AM | message detail
Yeah Missingno won't be crushed, but winning is pretty unlikely. 15% isn't that worrying when joke characters tend to perform betting in multi-way polls.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 42/50 - Today's Winners: Pikachu and Ellis
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:21:45 AM | message detail
Missingno was impressive as hell despite having no pic. With that pic, Crono's in trouble. Modern gamers who don't know Pokemon will go "Random Character I've never heard of vs. HA HA IS THAT A GLITCH?" and vote Missingno, while older gamers will go "Chrono Trigger lead vs. OH GOD A GLITCH" and vote Missingno.

Of course, Missingno could just as easily bomb, but man, Missingno over Crono would be the best.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 2/10/2010 6:23:06 AM | message detail
Oh man I just realized that no matter what I can't defeat ngirl unless WCC somehow jobs to the Boss(not happening) or Sub-Zero loses.

...I'm eliminated already. =(
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:23:51 AM | message detail
Make no mistake, I have Crono in my (now dead >.>) bracket and will probably take him narrowly in the oracle, but I don't think Missingno > Crono is terribly unlikely. I don't really want to see the NN broken by a glitch, either. >.>

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Currently Playing: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Ocarina of Time, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
charmander6000 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:24:23 AM | message detail
Match LII: (4) Commander Shepard vs. (13) Ellis

Information

Name: Commander Shepard
Game/Series: Mass Effect
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 1

Name: Ellis
Game/Series: Left 4 Dead 2
Previous Contest: N/A
Performance: N/A

Analysis

When the bracket was released I thought this match was going to be debatable. By the time the brackets closed I was one of the very few that sided with Ellis. At first I thought people went with the higher seeding, but after doing some research I noticed that Mass Effect 2 was going to be released about two weeks before the match and that it is the biggest release so far this year. My Ellis upset went from bad to worse after finding that out.

My reasoning for going with Ellis was that Shepard’s performance in 2008 was terrible, especially with Sonic and Magus not looking so good in this contest, Left 4 Dead is liked a lot more than Mass Effect though using that is never a good thing and that Zoey and Louis performed decent in the vote-ins considering that they were stuck against each other plus Ellis is loved a bit more from what I gather.

With Mass Effect 2 Shepard should get a rather nice boost. The game was pretty hyped and since it has only been out for two weeks a lot of people who got it and came to GameFAQs probably still remain. I don’t see Shepard causing any major upsets, but losing to a character from an ensemble cast after Mass Effect 2 would be very embarrassing.

The only way Ellis can win is if the Left 4 Dead fans decide to band together and give him massive support and even then that might not be enough to win. Well it looks like my winning streak has ended, it was fun while it lasted, but Shepard would need to be the biggest flop to lose at this point.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Ellis > Commander Shepard

charmander6000’s Prediction: Shepard wins, 58.37% - 41.63%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 42/50 - Today's Winners: Pikachu and Ellis
ExThaNemesis | Posted 2/10/2010 6:24:35 AM | message detail
Wait nevermind, Ryu can win and save my ass. Captain Falcon as well.

God damnit ngirl why must your bracket be so similar to mine except better.
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:25:11 AM | message detail
From: ExThaNemesis | #042
Man, I just looked at things and Gordon Freeman losing would be the best result for me. Ngirl and I have practically the same bracket except she's got Sub-Zero, and Dante winning in the 2nd round. Gordon Freeman is our only other difference, and if he jobs in the 1st round, I can make up all the points I'm gonna lose on Sub-Zero(and WCC I just realized).

So go Peach!


I'm eliminating ExTha? Hell yeah.
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Suck on THAT Zigzagoon.
charmander6000 | Posted 2/10/2010 6:26:24 AM | message detail
Considering how well Pokemon RBY did in the games contest and that Missingno is one of the most well known glitches in gaming I don't think adding the picture will cause much difference.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 42/50 - Today's Winners: Pikachu and Ellis