GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 822

Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/7/2010 9:59:37 PM | message detail

From: Lightslayer987 | #338
Call of Duty 4 22.61
Fallout 3 20.70


X-stats aren't your strong suit, Sox.


CoD4 votals:

40675
27929
19998

Average: 29524

FO3 votals:
38566
29243
24583

Average: 30697.3

Alright, that one doesn't make sense to me.
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Not Wylvane
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/7/2010 10:00:02 PM | message detail
Hey! I grew up with Yellow! I remember on one run-through I gave away Pikachu or whatever, and I really missed him not following me around anymore.
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/7/2010 10:00:18 PM | message detail
What

That entire post is backwards

Everyone loved Yellow

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:00:29 PM | message detail

From: Lightslayer987 | Posted: 2/8/2010 12:52:31 AM | #338
Call of Duty 4 22.61
Fallout 3 20.70


X-stats aren't your strong suit, Sox.


And reading comprehension isn't yours. Those are vote total x-stats.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:01:04 PM | message detail
If that match pic was a well-known battle sprite, sure, but that might be the WORST possible picture Pikachu could have gotten.

RE2 Leon was far, far worse for Leon than any sprite Pikachu could have gotten. He looks like a generic nobody cop in that picture. Not to mention, you seem to be hindsight arguing for Pikachu! "That sprite was released back when people hated Pikachu's guts, and so seeing that sprite will remind people of the times when they hated him!" I don't think that's how it works...
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:01:06 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 2/8/2010 1:00:18 AM | #353
What

That entire post is backwards

Everyone loved Yellow


We're just going to agree to disagree on this. Maybe I was just around a bunch of Yellow hate or something.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/7/2010 10:01:13 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #353
What

That entire post is backwards

Everyone loved Yellow



^5
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Current Pick: Hadouken!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/7/2010 10:01:34 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #350
Maybe you guys were onto something about Sackboy fans being fans of QB sacks as well (or ToS fans are nerds who don't like football)! Kratos's peak hours were during the time when the Super Bowl was on, and he promptly dropped back off after it was over! Vote totals kinda tapered off during the time when the game was on, and went back up a bit after it was over as well!


That's just awesome.

Who do you guys think would have the biggest Super Bowl swing?

Chief/Old Square Rep?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:02:30 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 2/8/2010 1:01:04 AM | #355
If that match pic was a well-known battle sprite, sure, but that might be the WORST possible picture Pikachu could have gotten.

RE2 Leon was far, far worse for Leon than any sprite Pikachu could have gotten. He looks like a generic nobody cop in that picture. Not to mention, you seem to be hindsight arguing for Pikachu! "That sprite was released back when people hated Pikachu's guts, and so seeing that sprite will remind people of the times when they hated him!" I don't think that's how it works...


Dude, I love Pikachu just as much as all the other original 151. That isn't the case at all. All I'm saying is all 4 of those pictures look like total crap to me.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/7/2010 10:02:39 PM | message detail
What's this? Frog pulling a 3000 vote swing on Master Chief during the Super Bowl?
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Not Wylvane
Draco1214 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:02:49 PM | message detail
Call of Duty character vs. Alucard/Old Square
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:03:20 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #354
And reading comprehension isn't yours. Those are vote total x-stats.


And as Wylvane pointed out, Fallout 3 had more total votes. So no, my problem isn't reading comprehension.

So as I said, x-stats aren't Red Soxs strong suit.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/7/2010 10:03:49 PM | message detail
Oh man, Chief/Soap vs. Alucard during the Super Bowl. Alucard is already a Super Bowl hero after today, so let's make it happen!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:04:03 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #359
Dude, I love Pikachu just as much as all the other original 151. That isn't the case at all. All I'm saying is all 4 of those pictures look like total crap to me.


Sprites in general look like crap aside from SNES and Genesis sprites, honestly. That doesn't stop them from invoking nostalgia. You can say that Luigi's sprite against Ganondorf was just as ugly as Bacondorf, and maybe it was, but it invokes nostalgia, despite how awful it looks.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:04:07 PM | message detail
CoD4 votals:

40675
27929
19998

Average: 29524

FO3 votals:
38566
29243
24583

Average: 30697.3

Alright, that one doesn't make sense to me.


It's because I first subtracted 95,000 from the total votes in each match, and then divided the remainder by the percentages. Fallout 3's round 1 match got the least votes of any match in the contest, by a good margin, which is why it looks awful in these stats.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/7/2010 10:04:07 PM | message detail
If only we had Master Chief/Spy during the Super Bowl instead!
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Not Wylvane
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:04:34 PM | message detail
Let's not talk about the Super Bowl, or how Colts management has just finished up another year of failing their players. As good as Bill Polian can be, his hamartia has cost that team a good 2 or 3 rings.

And no, I don't at all blame Peyton Manning for that pick. Reggie Wayne had the worst game of his career tonight.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:05:02 PM | message detail

From: Lightslayer987 | Posted: 2/8/2010 1:03:20 AM | #362
And as Wylvane pointed out, Fallout 3 had more total votes. So no, my problem isn't reading comprehension.

So as I said, x-stats aren't Red Soxs strong suit.


Wait, WTF?

sox, explain thyself.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:06:00 PM | message detail
And looking at it again, considering that they're not adjusted for SFF or LFF or anything like that at all, I'd say they're surprisingly good. Probably beats raw 4-way x-stats, actually.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:06:35 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #367
Let's not talk about the Super Bowl, or how Colts management has just finished up another year of failing their players. As good as Bill Polian can be, his hamartia has cost that team a good 2 or 3 rings.

And no, I don't at all blame Peyton Manning for that pick. Reggie Wayne had the worst game of his career tonight.


I remember looking at that play and thinking, "Peyton's gonna pass to the inside. Garcon's got position and he'll easily get the first down."

...And then he didn't. I was very confused about that.
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"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/7/2010 10:06:49 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #365
CoD4 votals:

40675
27929
19998

Average: 29524

FO3 votals:
38566
29243
24583

Average: 30697.3

Alright, that one doesn't make sense to me.


It's because I first subtracted 95,000 from the total votes in each match, and then divided the remainder by the percentages. Fallout 3's round 1 match got the least votes of any match in the contest, by a good margin, which is why it looks awful in these stats.


Missed the part about total votals for the match. Makes sense then, though I don't know why that match would have low votals, especially considering all four games involved were decently big-name games. Hell if I remember whether anything notable happened that day, though.
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Not Wylvane
HaRRicH | Posted 2/7/2010 10:06:59 PM | message detail
Peyton had a fine game outside of that pick and the Saints played like champions once they started putting points on the board. It's hard to fault Peyton much.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:09:05 PM | message detail
And while I'm kinda bummed about the Colts losing, I'm fine with the Saints winning. Brees is probably my favorite NFL player after Peyton himself, and I'm glad he got his ring because he deserves one.

Makes me want to give a big ol' "TAKE THAT, SAN DIEGO!" for getting rid of Brees to keep Rivers.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/7/2010 10:09:28 PM | message detail
Literally seconds before the play, I was thinking how impressive it was that both QBs had gone the whole game without throwing a pick. But yeah, Peyton played well, but what can you do. Alucard saved up eight ****ing years for this Plan.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:09:48 PM | message detail
It's funny how the Colts played to not get injured (which is a coaching decision), but lost because of injuries and bad coaching. They played a soft defense after the first quarter, leaving an injured secondary to defend against Drew Brees. Good job, Coyer and Caldwell. And what pisses me off the most is how the Colts NEVER LEARN from stuff like this. They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:10:26 PM | message detail
Well, just looking at the votes each character got gives you garbage results. This is because the variation in total votes wasn't nearly as large as the variation in strength; even the match with the lowest votals scored above 100,000, while the highest scoring matches were only around 140,000. So, to account for that I arbitrarily subtracted 95,000 from all the matches, and the result is stats that look (very) roughly correct. Remember there's no adjustments for SFF or LFF or anything of the kind- that's why LTTP is so low for instance.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
HaRRicH | Posted 2/7/2010 10:11:09 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

I don't see the problem here.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:11:27 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

Aw yeah
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/7/2010 10:11:58 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

porkchop sandwiches
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:17:41 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

4 in a row.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:18:14 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

Fun Fact: Gregg Williams was the defensive guy for the Titans that year.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/7/2010 10:18:25 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

Lets say I want a hammer
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Current Pick: Hadouken!
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/7/2010 10:18:30 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #376
Well, just looking at the votes each character got gives you garbage results. This is because the variation in total votes wasn't nearly as large as the variation in strength; even the match with the lowest votals scored above 100,000, while the highest scoring matches were only around 140,000. So, to account for that I arbitrarily subtracted 95,000 from all the matches, and the result is stats that look (very) roughly correct. Remember there's no adjustments for SFF or LFF or anything of the kind- that's why LTTP is so low for instance.


Eh, I think FO3's R1 match is more a weird anomaly than anything. Not sure whether incorporating total votals from each match is a big deal or not, or whether it'd be wise to ignore them or not. I still think there's something to your stats, though.

I guess you can blame LFF for the highlighted oddities, like you said. CoD4 being higher can be explained away by two big-profile Nintendo games earning more votals in that match while splitting their own fanbase, giving CoD4 the edge, plus CoD4 benefiting from the same thing later except with Brawl, which would garner more votes than MGS4 anyway. So you could explain CoD4 being higher as benefiting from LFF.

Might be able to do the same thing for SM64, really, to explain it being below CT.
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Not Wylvane
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/7/2010 10:19:16 PM | message detail
Oops, I broke the chain!
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Not Wylvane
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/7/2010 10:19:23 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

Axel is gonna be the first KH character to get an ASV this year. I know it's been looking so far, but let's see if KH can do something impressive with it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:20:00 PM | message detail
Riku had a great morning vote against Ramza the other day, but that's probably a combo of the KH day vote and FFT's abysmal day vote.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:20:03 PM | message detail
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

I clearly remember the Colts resting against the Bills in the last game that season.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:20:59 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #387
They've been making these same mistakes as far back as 1999, when they went 13-3 and lost to the Titans in their first game.

I clearly remember the Colts resting against the Bills in the last game that season.


The Titans didn't rest their starters against the Bills! MUSIC CITY MIRACLE'D
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/7/2010 10:21:47 PM | message detail
been looking *diluted* so far

Typing over a stack of work papers I gotta take care of does this, I swear.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/7/2010 10:27:16 PM | message detail
Maybe you guys were onto something about Sackboy fans being fans of QB sacks as well (or ToS fans are nerds who don't like football)! Kratos's peak hours were during the time when the Super Bowl was on, and he promptly dropped back off after it was over! Vote totals kinda tapered off during the time when the game was on, and went back up a bit after it was over as well!

XD at Kratos doing well during the Super Bowl Vote. Didn't expect vote totals to drop off with the Super Bowl and go back up again after it ended.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/7/2010 10:27:45 PM | message detail
Eh, I think FO3's R1 match is more a weird anomaly than anything. Not sure whether incorporating total votals from each match is a big deal or not, or whether it'd be wise to ignore them or not. I still think there's something to your stats, though.

I guess you can blame LFF for the highlighted oddities, like you said. CoD4 being higher can be explained away by two big-profile Nintendo games earning more votals in that match while splitting their own fanbase, giving CoD4 the edge, plus CoD4 benefiting from the same thing later except with Brawl, which would garner more votes than MGS4 anyway. So you could explain CoD4 being higher as benefiting from LFF.

Might be able to do the same thing for SM64, really, to explain it being below CT.


Yeah, I'm very happy with these stats actually, considering that they don't account for LFF. Even something like CT/SM64- those stats predict SM64 to get 47.34% on CT, which is only about 4-5% off of what it actually got in rounds 2 and 3. Considering the top person in the oracle right now has an average of 44.71, meaning he's averaged being off by more than 5% (well, maybe a bit less given the penalty for getting the winner wrong) so far this contest, if these stats could predict every match within 5% they'd be a huge success. As it is, I wouldn't expect results anywhere near that good from looking at votals, so the bar for satisfaction here is much lower.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:45:13 PM | message detail
Wow, Balthier's cutting into Ryu's percentage like crazy now. He's regularly getting 31-34% updates now.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/7/2010 10:47:14 PM | message detail
Square overnight vote cometh. I still have supreme confidence in Ryu > Dante, at least until we see how tomorrow goes.
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This was a triumph.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:51:42 PM | message detail
I wonder who's going to get the morning vote. SF's morning vote awfulness is legendary, but I doubt Balthier's is all that great. Well, it can't be worse than Ryu's in all likelihood. I like his chances of finishing over 30% by the time we're done.
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paraboxx | Posted 2/7/2010 10:53:20 PM | message detail
I know Balthier's the fan favorite from FFXII, but I'm starting to wonder if it's different at Gamefaqs for some reason. This can't be all FFXII's cast is worth. It's an FF game. A non-old-school FF game, even. You think maybe Ashe or Basch could do better than this? Or would they just flop even harder?

...yeah, I already asked this near the start of the match, but nobody was talking about Balthier then. (And who can blame them!)
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/7/2010 10:54:09 PM | message detail
Persona 4 made a furious comeback and built a lead on SFIV with the morning vote.

Persona 4.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/7/2010 10:54:29 PM | message detail
Ashe and Basch would do even worse.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/7/2010 10:55:20 PM | message detail
This can't be all FFXII's cast is worth.

Unfortunately, it is. I can't imagine anyone else from FFXII being stronger than Balthier. He's definitely the Auron of the game, a huge fan favorite (for what little fanbase the game apparently has).
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 2/7/2010 10:55:55 PM | message detail
But like... FFXII sucked. It's not surprising that it's weaksauce.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/7/2010 10:55:58 PM | message detail
I'm glad Ryu/Dante is a day match, so we don't have to go through SF's infamous morning vote.
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Current Pick: Hadouken!