GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 819

UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/5/2010 8:23:59 AM | message detail
CHRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIS!!!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/5/2010 9:24:20 AM | message detail
Everybody hates Chris..
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/5/2010 9:24:41 AM | message detail
...in GB
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/5/2010 9:24:56 AM | message detail
Milk, please.
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Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 2/5/2010 9:25:42 AM | message detail
I wish we had an interesting match for the 2 1/2 feet of snow we're getting here.
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The question to everyone's answer.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:26:18 AM | message detail

From: Gr8CyberMonkey | #005
I wish we had an interesting match for the 2 1/2 feet of snow we're getting here.


Is it snowing where you are? It hasn't started yet here...
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 2/5/2010 9:27:43 AM | message detail
Very light flakes for the last hour, but it's not sticking.
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The question to everyone's answer.
FFDragon | Posted 2/5/2010 9:28:52 AM | message detail
It's starting to pick up here tbqh.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:30:16 AM | message detail
2.0 days until Sackboy/Kratos
5.5 days until Auron/Aerith
6.5 days until Revan/Terra
10 days until Soap/Daddy
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:30:34 AM | message detail
Man, Maryland has gotten way more snow than New York this year.

Sux for you guys!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/5/2010 9:31:08 AM | message detail
2.0 days until Sackboy/Kratos
5.5 days until Auron/Aerith
6.5 days until Revan/Terra
10 days until Soap/Daddy


One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...
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Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:31:14 AM | message detail
why even list auron/aerith? That'll be closer to a match like this then a close match..
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:32:30 AM | message detail
Because I'm interested to see just how badly Auron will SFF her or if there will even be any SFF. Match is not in doubt, but it's still interesting.

Also, my mistake

9.5 days until Soap/Daddy
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/5/2010 9:32:31 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/5/2010 9:33:11 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #012
why even list auron/aerith? That'll be closer to a match like this then a close match..


I doubt Auron LFFs her that badly because Squall didn't. It'll probably be closer to Zack/Yuna numbers.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:34:25 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #015
I doubt Auron LFFs her that badly because Squall didn't. It'll probably be closer to Zack/Yuna numbers.


Even before SFF, I'd say it would be close to 60%. AFter SFF, it may be a doubling.
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
KommunistKoala | Posted 2/5/2010 9:35:53 AM | message detail
i live in frederick and its picked up a bit.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:36:46 AM | message detail
Squall managed 58% on Aeris in Round 1 two years ago. A similar number from Auron would be good.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/5/2010 9:37:09 AM | message detail
FFDragon | Posted 2/5/2010 12:28:52 PM | message detail
It's starting to pick up here tbqh.


No snow for me yet and I'm in Pennsylvania. The weather reports I've read are expecting the snow to start between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM EST.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/5/2010 9:39:54 AM | message detail
I don't see Marth doing *that* well on Sephiroth - and no, I'm not dialing expectations up for the mama's boy intentionally (that's merely incidental). Marth is probably the Nintendo character whose popularity stems most from the Japanocentric qualities that also make Sephiroth popular. Kinda like what Sephiroth did to Dante, except to a much lesser degree because Marth's not Sony.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:41:10 AM | message detail
LOOK AT THE COLOR OF MARTH'S HAIR
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/5/2010 9:41:55 AM | message detail
I think Auron will outperform Squall against Aeris, mostly due to Aeris getting weaker. Still would think Squall's the favorite unless Auron pulls off a doubling or something.
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Not Wylvane
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/5/2010 9:42:50 AM | message detail
LOOK AT THE COLOR OF MARTH'S HAIR

We live in a post-racial society yo I can't see color anymore
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turnturnturn your brain in
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:43:24 AM | message detail
Hey, so if Sephiroth beats Snake, how many votes does Cloud/Sephiroth get in the first 5 minutes?

5? 10? -30?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:44:47 AM | message detail
Auron wasn't in Dissidia, right?

You know, I've never really thought about it until now, but I'm surprised Auron didn't more support against Squall (perhaps the reason he didn't is because nobody else thought about it, either). It can be easily argued that Auron had the more impressive 4way runs. That Round 2 beatdown he put on Bowser and Ryu was something else, and unlike Squall, he actually managed to kick Sonic's ass. Squall couldn't make good on that in two attempts.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:45:42 AM | message detail
Squall would have beaten Sonic last year if he was in Auron's position.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:45:57 AM | message detail
auron beating squall would be great, cuz I hate that emo bastard

don't see it happening though
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voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 9:46:53 AM | message detail
Squall being a main character may subconsciously have people thinking more highly og him or something, but it does look like an even match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:48:28 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #028
Squall being a main character may subconsciously have people thinking more highly og him or something, but it does look like an even match.


Yep, I think that Vincent/Squall match swayed people more than anything else. If Squall could come so close to FFVII's badass, he should beat X's.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/5/2010 9:48:59 AM | message detail
Hey, so if Sephiroth beats Snake

Don't even joke about possibilities like that. :(

Going back to the last discussion... I don't think Tifa/Samus is a good indicator of Metroid being 'bad' with the night vote. Tifa's never been a good day vote character, even when the other FF7 characters were good with it. Yet all Samus could do with the day vote was bring a 50.29% lead for Tifa... to a peak 50.7% lead for herself. Even ignoring the funkiness caused by that match, Samus has always had very even trends.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/5/2010 9:51:14 AM | message detail
Auron should take Aeris to Pound Town. I think Auron's going to be close to Mega Man and don't see Aeris/Cid being very different in strength, and that's before potential SFF. Giving Zack/Yuna-like numbers is a bit conservative, given Auron > Zack and Yuna = Aeris in 2006. Squall got ~58% on Aeris in 2007, and it seemed harder to SFF characters in four-ways than in one-on-one matches.

I feel good with Auron at least 60-40'ing her, and if SFF comes into play then I wonder how much worse it could become.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 2/5/2010 9:51:34 AM | message detail
Hey, so if Sephiroth beats Snake

the hell do you mean "if"?
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 2/5/2010 9:53:04 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 2/5/2010 12:44:47 PM | #025
Auron wasn't in Dissidia, right?

You know, I've never really thought about it until now, but I'm surprised Auron didn't more support against Squall (perhaps the reason he didn't is because nobody else thought about it, either). It can be easily argued that Auron had the more impressive 4way runs. That Round 2 beatdown he put on Bowser and Ryu was something else, and unlike Squall, he actually managed to kick Sonic's ass. Squall couldn't make good on that in two attempts.


The problem is that Squall came really close to a hype-fueled Sonic. Auron beat a Sonic whose hype had come and gone. It's a very different situation.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:53:05 AM | message detail
oh god don't hurt me
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voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 9:54:25 AM | message detail
I wonder what will happen to Extha should Seph LOSE to Snake.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/5/2010 9:56:28 AM | message detail
The problem is that Squall came really close to a hype-fueled Sonic. Auron beat a Sonic whose hype had come and gone. It's a very different situation.

That excuse doesn't work for Squall's second match with Sonic since Solid Snake was in the poll. It also looked like Sonic only benefited from the hype in R2 since Squall still almost beat Sonic despite Sora in their first match.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 2/5/2010 9:59:05 AM | message detail
Oi Suzy, GB won't even back their own?

Hey now, we voted for Price. But even WE don't care about MacMillan.

Speaking of which, Sandal, Claptrap, Professor Layton, Eddie Riggs and Captain MacMillan.

How do you rank them?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 10:00:11 AM | message detail
1. Claptrap
2. Captain McMillan
3. Professor LAyton
4. Eddie Riggs
5. Sandal
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voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 10:00:13 AM | message detail
claptrap, A BOX, not being last is just weird.
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KingBartz | Posted 2/5/2010 10:00:20 AM | message detail
Claptrap
Captain MacMillan
Professor Layton
Sandal
Eddie Riggs
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Contest score: 33/41 Today's picks: Cloud Strife & Chris Redfield
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/5/2010 10:00:38 AM | message detail
Hey now, we voted for Price. But even WE don't care about MacMillan.

Although I wonder how much of that was Price just being naturally strong in the UK, or Price taking advantage of Mega Man being weak there.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 10:06:51 AM | message detail
I'm really looking forward to the ASV here. If Jill lost a couple % during the asv to a GTA Character, I wonder how much better a CoD character does.
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 10:13:49 AM | message detail
Chris looks like someone the CoD fanbase would idolize, though.

"Hey dudes, think Chris can beat BROCK LESNAR?!?!"
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KingBartz | Posted 2/5/2010 10:14:07 AM | message detail
next match plz
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Contest score: 33/41 Today's picks: Cloud Strife & Chris Redfield
charmander6000 | Posted 2/5/2010 10:15:32 AM | message detail
Leon went from 77% to 76% from the half way point on. His day vote is a bit better than other RE characters.
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Character Battle VIII - 32/40 - Today's Winners: Cloud and Chris
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 10:15:36 AM | message detail
This is not a CoD character. This is a swamp thing. Basing trends off of it seems like a bad idea.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 10:16:52 AM | message detail
I think Chris might dip below 70%, but if he does, it won't be by much.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 10:18:21 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #046
This is not a CoD character. This is a swamp thing. Basing trends off of it seems like a bad idea.


well he doesnt seem to have joke trends so far. He's been pretty steady, while most joke characters start off well and then fall.
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voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 10:28:03 AM | message detail
the real swamp thing would honestly do much better than this garbage.
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Shakes Fist!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 10:34:35 AM | message detail
I just realized that if Kratos Aurion wins, I (and quite a few others who were burned by Kefka) should be riding a 27-match win streak going into Revan/Terra. It's amazing to think that someone who gets really hot can conceivably win 100 matches in a row.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!