GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 818

RPGuy96 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:45:19 AM | message detail
I don't think Metroid is FE-level bad at night.

Tifa was leading Samus until 8 AM.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:45:38 AM | message detail
He's not... this is just a lot of anti votes. I wouldn't be surprised if 10% of Ridleys vote intake is the "Not Cloud" votes.

Uhh...that's the point I'm making? If the likes of Ridley and Marth can ride Cloud/Seph anti-votes to looking like Leon, then Samus/Cloud is a debatable match, because either Samus is a goddess despite getting anti-voted like the other elites (Mega Man is never treated like an elite by the casuals, so he doesn't count), or Samus flat-out doesn't get anti-voted.

Both of those scenarios are bad news for Cloud.

Of course if Seph goes and hits mid-70s on Marth I can just chalk this up to a Ridley brawl boost and Cloud/Samus remains buried until Samus breaks 70% next round and Cloud fails to double Chris.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/5/2010 8:45:59 AM | message detail
I took Ellis over Shepherd as an upset. I had no idea that Mass Effect 2 was coming out X_X
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 8:46:29 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 8:46:31 AM | message detail
Even if it wasn't, Ellis over Shepard was a pretty bad idea. >_>

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 8:47:00 AM | message detail
Cloud is going to win due to a night match. Metroid is just plain bad at night. I'd really be worried though if it was a day match...
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/5/2010 8:47:41 AM | message detail
Samus let Prince of Persia have a 27% hour against her in the deep night.

Samus had 2 really bad hours at the deep night, which were much worse than her other hours. There's also the case where Super Metroid lost the Europe vote to Super Mario Kart twice during the last Games Contest. Metroid's bad at night, probably more so than Mario or Legend of Zelda.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/5/2010 8:47:43 AM | message detail
I would put Shepard > Ellis even without Mass Effect 2 >_>
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:48:13 AM | message detail
I'm going to stand by what I said in jest last night: Sephiroth could look horrible against Marth and Crono, he could let both of them have the lead on him at the freeze, he could even let Crono have the lead on him for an hour- and he could still turn around and show Snake the meaning of Clinkeroth when they meet.

Also, out of the Noble Nine, Samus, Crono, and Megaman probably have the least stigma as "obvious favorites." And Samus and Megaman have both done well so far, so that's a point for that theory.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 8:49:55 AM | message detail
The amount of percentage that bleeds from a Crono/Sephiroth match after the board vote would be hillarious
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 8:50:32 AM | message detail
Samus/Sephiroth will be worse. At least Crono has a night vote.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:51:53 AM | message detail
Sephiroth is going to destroy Crono so badly in Europe.

Assuming Crono makes it to Sephiroth of course!!
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:53:11 AM | message detail
It'll be the sprite round too! Overperformance here we come!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
RPGuy96 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:53:36 AM | message detail
More like assuming Sephiroth makes it to Crono!!

Guybrush...!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:54:06 AM | message detail
Guybrush vs. Crono in Europe, who wins?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 8:54:25 AM | message detail
GameFAQs collectively realizes that Vincent is a bad character and all spontaneously play The Secret of Monkey Island at the same time

It can happen

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/5/2010 8:55:14 AM | message detail
Guybrush > Seph, you heard it here first
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Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy
red sox 777 | Posted 2/5/2010 8:56:21 AM | message detail
Uhh...that's the point I'm making? If the likes of Ridley and Marth can ride Cloud/Seph anti-votes to looking like Leon, then Samus/Cloud is a debatable match, because either Samus is a goddess despite getting anti-voted like the other elites (Mega Man is never treated like an elite by the casuals, so he doesn't count), or Samus flat-out doesn't get anti-voted.

Anti-votes matter less in a closer match, because:

1. Many more of the anti-voters are Samus fans already.
2. That 10% would make up a much lower percentage of Samus's total votes.

From an x-stats perspective, characters who get a large share of their votes from anti-votes are going to be horrendously overrated in the stats.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 8:58:56 AM | message detail
whos ready for some swamp monster domination
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/5/2010 8:59:26 AM | message detail
Chris is gonna beat this dude like a boulder.
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Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy
Master Moltar | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Chris Redfield 83.33%

10
Captain MacMillan 16.67%

2
TOTAL VOTES 12
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Cloud > Ridley (35/40)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:16 AM | message detail
Chris Redfield 81.82%

9
Captain MacMillan 18.18%

2
TOTAL VOTES 11


CHRIIIIIIIIS
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:17 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Chris Redfield 83.33%

5
Captain MacMillan 16.67%

1
TOTAL VOTES 6


I was MacMillan!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:19 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Chris Redfield 77.78%

7
Captain MacMillan 22.22%

2
TOTAL VOTES 9

Aw yeah, second vote for Swamp Thing!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:20 AM | message detail
Chris Redfield 68%

17
Captain MacMillan 32%

8
TOTAL VOTES 25
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KingBartz | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:28 AM | message detail
Chris Redfield 75% 12
Captain MacMillan 25% 4
TOTAL VOTES 16

ZOMG teh tripling
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Contest score: 31/39 Today's picks: Zelda & Ezio Auditore da Firenze
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:31 AM | message detail
Chris Redfield 75%

12
Captain MacMillan 25%

4
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Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:33 AM | message detail
wow 37% for MacMillan so far. he might get 40%
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voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:40 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Chris Redfield 70%

14
Captain MacMillan 30%

6
TOTAL VOTES 20

chris biceps ftw.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:52 AM | message detail
or nm... he fell fast xD
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/5/2010 9:00:56 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #428
wow 37% for MacMillan so far. he might get 40%


Whoops
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:01:04 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #428
wow 37% for MacMillan so far. he might get 40%


oh reeeeeeeelay
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CP724 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:01:19 AM | message detail
lol
RPGuy96 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:01:26 AM | message detail
wow 37% for MacMillan so far. he might get 40%

lol
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:01:35 AM | message detail
Hey he was up to 37% for a second! >_>
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CP724 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:01:45 AM | message detail
Chris>Cloud
Master Moltar | Posted 2/5/2010 9:01:48 AM | message detail
aww yeah chris

boulder ain't nothing macmillan ain't nothing

no stoppin
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Cloud > Ridley (35/40)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:01:50 AM | message detail
Resident Evil boost = confirmed, and emphatically
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 9:02:16 AM | message detail
MacMillan is the new CATS.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/5/2010 9:02:23 AM | message detail
Hmmm...MacMillan might finish with 30%+ here, depending on where the board vote ends. Chris has the RE day vote to look forward to, and CoD's is pretty good.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:02:32 AM | message detail
...if this is the year Leon > Dante happens I'm going to hurt someone.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:02:52 AM | message detail
To compare...

Leon got 76% on MacMillan last year.
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voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 9:02:57 AM | message detail
Chris to get 45% on cloud!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/5/2010 9:03:13 AM | message detail
93.96% for Cloud. That seems kinda low...
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voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 9:03:36 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #434
...if this is the year Leon > Dante happens I'm going to hurt someone.




you mean LEON>RYU!
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Shakes Fist!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 9:03:48 AM | message detail
Unlike Jill, Wesker, and Chris, Leon really has no reason to boost. He was mentioned once, in passing, in all of RE5. Maybe some new RE5 fans went back to try RE4, but even that would result in a paltry boost compared to what the other three are getting.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 2/5/2010 9:03:52 AM | message detail
How did you get that number for Leon?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/5/2010 9:04:23 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #447
How did you get that number for Leon?


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3270&num=4
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RPGuy96 | Posted 2/5/2010 9:04:29 AM | message detail
Leon got 76% on MacMillan last year.

REboost indeed.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 2/5/2010 9:04:30 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
39------3------------100.0000000
38------24----------100.0000000
37------82----------100.0000000
36------177--------100.0000000
35------327--------100.0000000
34------631--------100.0000000
33------1124------99.4661922
32------1752------99.3721461
31------2162------99.1674376
30------2480------98.6693548
29------2759------97.7165640
28------2784------96.2284483
27------2593------94.8708060
26------2178------93.2506887
25------1814------90.9592062
24------1369------90.2848795
23------1031------87.4878758
22------738--------85.7723577
21------516--------84.1085271
20------304--------76.9736842
19------177--------83.6158192
18------115--------76.5217391
17------69----------79.7101449
16------45----------68.8888889
15------26----------53.8461538
14------20----------45.0000000
13------15----------53.3333333
12------15----------20.0000000
11------15----------13.3333333
10------18----------0.0000000
9--------20----------10.0000000
8--------17----------5.8823529
7--------19----------10.5263158
6--------12----------8.3333333
5--------15----------26.6666667
4--------6------------0.0000000
3--------12----------0.0000000
2--------12----------16.6666667
1--------35----------2.8571429
0--------57----------5.2631579

Very high prediction percentages at the top like you would expect. -1s, -2s, -3s, -4s, -5s and -6s all went perfect. It's not until the -17s that the prediction percentage dips below 90%.

Unsurprisingly, no one fell off the Top 50 today.
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