GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 818
HaRRicH | Posted 2/5/2010 12:38:20 AM | message detail |
Aaaaaand
now Cloud hits an even 70%. It only took over three and a half hours.
I'll casually say "post-Dissidia" too to make this a bit more dramatic. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 2/5/2010 12:39:09 AM | message detail |
Judging
from past stats, as I said I'd expect at least 75% from Cloud on
Ridley, probably close to 80%. Cloud will almost assuredly finish below
75% (DEFINITELY sub 80%). I actually have an interesting theory on the matter. Has anyone noticed that most of the Noble Nine have underperformed? Link, Mega Man X, Sonic, Mario (honestly I thought Big Boss' numbers were at least as impressive as Mario's when SFF is considered), Mega Man (debatably, I don't think Cid is very strong), and now Cloud. I think this is just a further trend of a certain subsect of the voters getting fed up with these characters winning all the time. I remember during the Link match seeing a bunch of topics on LUE supporting Thrall (and like 90% of the posters in the topic saying they voted for Thrall) JUST because they don't want him to win again. Yes these topics have popped up in the past but they actually seemed to have some steam this time around. I think as the years go on we will see less and less impressive first round performances from the Noble Nine. They will still win, just more people will anti-vote them, and as such they will still continue to perform as expected in later rounds against each other (which is a trend I've noticed in other contests). We've all seen the effects of L-block though. --- CBVIII: 37/40 - 37 pts, tied for 28th - L: Ocelot, Liquid, Phoenix Night Pick: Cloud Day Pick: Redfield |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 12:39:35 AM | message detail |
We'll see how it affects Sephiroth. Seph is weaker than Cloud, Marth should
be stronger than Ridley (for the love of god), and Seph should be
anti-voted just as much. If Marth gets an awesome picture, I wonder if
we can see him avoid the doubling. Seems very possible after tonight. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 12:41:05 AM | message detail |
Marth gets bishounen SFF'd. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
paulg235 | Posted 2/5/2010 12:41:44 AM | message detail |
FACT/FICTION: Sephiroth fails to break 60% by the freeze. --- The Gamer In Me "paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/5/2010 12:42:39 AM | message detail |
From: DaruniaTheGoron | Posted: 2/5/2010 3:39:09 AM | #252 If this leads to Snake winning, I will cream my pants and clean it up with a burned bracket. Good God I would not care about losing if Snake > Link happened. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.· http://insomnia.ac/archive/games/xbox360/s/streetfighteriv/ken_flowchart.jpg |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 12:44:06 AM | message detail |
I
actually can see Marth not looking this impressive because he looks too
similar. Tonight's entrants couldn't look any more different, and the
fact that Ridley looks like he's about to eat Cloud's head probably
isn't doing Cloud's percentage any good. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 12:44:26 AM | message detail |
Strange how no one is tired of seeing Snake "always win" after these past three contests ! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
HaRRicH | Posted 2/5/2010 12:46:07 AM | message detail |
I
doubt it's really anti-voting any more than usual -- it could be more
pity-voting than anything for these guys, though it amounts to a lost
vote all the same. Haha, if Marth somehow avoids the doubling against Sephiroth, that'll be amazing. Marth's lost to DK in 2007 and to Peach in this year's vote-ins...so avoiding the doubling would be a very telling sign of the FF7-side of Clinkeroth. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 2/5/2010 12:47:11 AM | message detail |
I
think Snake has already peaked to be honest. But I'd be very happy to
see him beat Sephy and Cloud (unless it ruined my chances of winning a
prize.. lol). If he beat Link.. ehh. Link is my favourite character but
I wouldn't be unhappy with Snake winning, especially if my bracket was
already burned. --- CBVIII: 37/40 - 37 pts, tied for 28th - L: Ocelot, Liquid, Phoenix Night Pick: Cloud Day Pick: Redfield |
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 2/5/2010 12:48:48 AM | message detail |
Assuming
Link would 55-45 Cloud and that Cloud ends with 71% here, that would
give Ridley...61.71% on Thrall I think. That doesn't sound too
unreasonable. --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/5/2010 12:48:59 AM | message detail |
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 2/5/2010 3:28:55 AM | #246 No doubt this makes Cloud look bad compared to past contests, but look at this contest so far. Who has really stood out to you? For me, it's Charizard, Kefka and the Portal duo. Those are off the top of my head. After looking at the bracket, I'll throw in Samus and Luigi. Maybe Mario too, but he had a pure SFF match. Point is, no one has looked dominant compared to the past and we're seeing some trending toward parity. Link looked bad. Cloud looks bad. Sonic looked bad. Mega Man looked... decent, I guess. This would be condemnation for Cloud if it weren't an across-the-board weird contest. Remember, this is our first true legit 1v1 character battle in 6 years (Summer 2004). Things are bound to be different now, and I'm very much looking forward to the stats after this contest. --- "Watching regs bash Ulti is like watching an ant colony revolt against a lawnmower." -Lucid Faia |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/5/2010 12:50:49 AM | message detail |
For
what it's worth, I'd be very hesitant to apply this anti-voting theory
to any other traditionally strong characters. MMX isn't traditional at
all; he's completely untested in 1v1, so we have no way of knowing how
legit that match was. Sonic is definitely weaker and might have just
gotten anti-voted a bit because people hate him now. Mario's match fell
right within our expectations, and Mega Man looked great. Samus also
looked very good. Link and Cloud are the big culprits here, and no characters in the last 8 years have made winning more "obvious" than these two. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/5/2010 12:53:55 AM | message detail |
I don't think it's anti-voting as just as variation and trending. With Cloud and Link, sure you might get anti-votes. --- http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflarchive.php?year=2009&team=IND&gameid=54609 |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 2/5/2010 12:54:33 AM | message detail |
I admit MMX is a bit of an anomaly, and Samus was impressive. And personally I expected Mario to do a bit better. Also, I don't buy that Sonic is that much weaker. We'll see in later rounds if someone can upset him though. --- CBVIII: 37/40 - 37 pts, tied for 28th - L: Ocelot, Liquid, Phoenix Night Pick: Cloud Day Pick: Redfield |
HaRRicH | Posted 2/5/2010 1:05:12 AM | message detail |
I'm
okay with the idea many are under-performing. This one's still looking
like the biggest under-performance yet from our Noble Niners. I also wanna bring up again that the site/contest-scene is pretty different now and we haven't seen exactly how so yet. Our past noteworthy site-shifts were in 2003 and 2005...and it's now 2010, complete with a new generation of systems. Our contests had always been in the summer or fall...and now it's the middle of winter. We have a new #1 game on GameFAQs here, the trends of FF7 -- this site's original foundation -- have changed a lot, and pretty much any game before the 32-64 bit era not by Nintendo or Square has bitten the dust. There has almost certainly been a shift somewhere, and it doesn't help that all of this has been partially hidden by four-ways, nor does it help that we're only getting half-matches to go off of for the majority of this contest. Point is, it's hard to tell if this is even some special sect of new anti-voters or pity-voters, or if it's just the way the site is now. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
vcharon | Posted 2/5/2010 1:09:04 AM | message detail |
I still can't see how anyone can call this worse than Sonic's performance. --- :> |
Sonic_Factor | Posted 2/5/2010 1:13:25 AM | message detail |
thats because youre the one of the biggest sonic haters on this board. get off his balls geez --- Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII! He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII. |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 1:14:59 AM | message detail |
Haha what. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
vcharon | Posted 2/5/2010 1:15:14 AM | message detail |
Or
it could be you know, failing to beat down a character from a game 90%
of the voters haven't played is a lot more unimpressive. Just a thought though. --- :> |
Sonic_Factor | Posted 2/5/2010 1:15:39 AM | message detail |
master chief halo 3? thought so --- Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII! He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII. |
ZFS | Posted 2/5/2010 1:17:04 AM | message detail |
I dunno, Lightning could probably win a ton of matches no problem. --- wheresoever you go, go with all your heart |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 1:17:30 AM | message detail |
Hey, there's a Metroid game coming out this year! Ridley's performance here must be because of hype! --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
vcharon | Posted 2/5/2010 1:19:01 AM | message detail |
Cloud should still reach 72-73%, and I don't really think that's too bad of an underperformance. --- :> |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/5/2010 1:21:30 AM | message detail |
That's
still about 5% under performance from what he really should have gotten
here. Sonic looked worse for sure, but it's tough to spin this one in
Cloud's favor and say that 72% on a guy like Ridley is acceptable. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Zylo the wolf | Posted 2/5/2010 1:22:09 AM | message detail |
Kinda obvious that the Cube will win this year. Oh and how did Simon becoming the bracket favourite. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me |
redrocket | Posted 2/5/2010 1:25:15 AM | message detail |
No doubt this makes Cloud look bad compared to past contests, but look at this contest so far. Who has really stood out to you? Da Cube. Sandal actually has strength; he just got joke SFF'd. --- From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch |
CP724 | Posted 2/5/2010 1:49:57 AM | message detail |
81% update few minutes ago, not bad. |
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 2/5/2010 3:26:27 AM | message detail |
I
don't think Protoman is too far away from Ridley in terms of contest
strength as shown in the vote in poll. I would like to see how Snake
perform before i even comment on the possibility of him beating Cloud. --- Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times" |
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 2/5/2010 3:58:30 AM | message detail |
Pity
votes and anti-votes.As for yesterday I find it strange that Simon was
the favorite.I don't know much about Castlevania but he isn't the main
character in all games right?I guess people pick characters out of
nostalgia... --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
AppreciateTrees | Posted 2/5/2010 4:28:14 AM | message detail |
9999 votes for Ridley. --- I AM AN ANNOYING OVERCONFIDENT NEWBIE WHO HAS NOTHING USEFUL TO CONTRIBUTE PLEASE IGNORE EVERYTHING I POST THANK YOU |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 4:32:57 AM | message detail |
Cloud still sucking I see! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/5/2010 4:33:45 AM | message detail |
It's
always stunned me how weak Simon actually is, and I guess it's
surprising to the casuals as well (...that, and Ezio jibba da jabba
ain't exactly the most recognizable name in the world). Still, I
expected him to more or less be the face of Castlevania. I had him
beating Crono in 2k2, for cryin' out loud! <_< --- turnturnturn your brain in http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 4:34:33 AM | message detail |
what a weird match for cloud. --- Shakes Fist! |
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 2/5/2010 4:35:00 AM | message detail |
It just goes to show how unknown Ezio is. More bracket makers thought Altair could beat Liquid Snake than thought Ezio could take out Simon Belmont. I'd be curious to see how a pictureless Ezio/Simon match would go. --- KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest. |
Guess how many teens | Posted 2/5/2010 4:35:53 AM | message detail |
I'm sure it's been thrown out there before, but just in case, let me mention this: Isn't every huge character pretty much underperforming because the casual voters lose power in these 12 hour battles? It is pretty likely that the casual voters in each poll went from 80% to like 60% or something like that, and the non-casual vote is known for anti-voting, voting for the loser just to make things closer, not voting seriously in really obvious matches.... THINK ABOUT IT --- [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue |
voltch | Posted 2/5/2010 4:39:15 AM | message detail |
Maybe Ezio just needs a more badass sounding name, like Vega or something. Cos Altair does sound pretty badass. --- Shakes Fist! |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/5/2010 4:40:21 AM | message detail |
At
least as far as the night matches go, they should be indistinguishable
from the first 12 hours of a normal 24 hour poll. I don't think you can
say it's *just* casual dilution. Even in her worst hours in 2k6, Zelda
was smacking down Terra with a tripling - something else is going on. Protoman... *should* be stronger than Ridley, I would've said before this match. Oh what the hell do I know dammit Cloud prepare to lose to Swamp Thing next round --- turnturnturn your brain in http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 2/5/2010 4:54:40 AM | message detail |
Prince of Persia (2007c) has a strength of 20.39 against Base Link. Ridley (2007c) has a strength of 16.01 against Base Link. Prince of Persia wins with 60.74% of the vote! A 27,326 vote margin of victory. Time to start the Samus > Cloud train??? |
Guess how many teens | Posted 2/5/2010 4:59:21 AM | message detail |
They
are different, the non-casual crowd will check gamefaqs once every 24
hours and vote, somewhere spread around the 24 hours in the 24 hour
format. It's likely that there are more voters at end and start of
non-casuals(end if it was a close match and they save their vote for
last or start asking buddies to vote) but other than that they would be
spread around the day quite equally. Now in 12 hour format, big part of the non-casual crowd checks gamefaqs every 12 hours and votes. Obviously the influence will be bigger in night than in day, but both will be influenced. I agree that it's likely a combination of factors though. another factor probably is that because some of the crazy results in fourway people believe that there vote can actually matter, to create a trend, bandwagon, whatever, like snake and l-block. --- [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue |
Guess how many teens | Posted 2/5/2010 5:00:34 AM | message detail |
their* --- [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue |
Denzokuken | Posted 2/5/2010 5:03:37 AM | message detail |
Prince of Persia (2007c) VS Thrall (2007c) Prince of Persia has a strength of 20.39. Thrall has a strength of 14.90. Prince of Persia wins with 63.46% of the vote! SAMUS > LINK GUYSS!?!?!?!!? lol Noble Nine round 1 matches. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/5/2010 5:15:57 AM | message detail |
I
don't think Protoman is too far away from Ridley in terms of contest
strength as shown in the vote in poll. I would like to see how Snake
perform before i even comment on the possibility of him beating Cloud. Proto Man would kill Ridley. He's going to escape the doubling against Snake. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 2/5/2010 5:17:38 AM | message detail |
lol Protoman overestimation. Seriously though, I think the fact that Ridley has a recognisable pic this time helps him a lot. He might actually be strong, who knows. |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 2/5/2010 5:19:13 AM | message detail |
Ridley is probably strong enough to make this performance equally pathetic to Link's, relatively speaking >_> --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/5/2010 5:23:56 AM | message detail |
Don't mind turtle he's a Mega Man fan. --- *is Dranze* Krahen Prophet did a fatality. |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/5/2010 5:24:40 AM | message detail |
Speaking of that match, I expect Protoman to get maybe in the high 20's. --- *is Dranze* Krahen Prophet did a fatality. |
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/5/2010 5:28:30 AM | message detail |
Dangit people you're supposed to be dialing down expectations. Clearly 60% on Protoman will be enough to take down Seph considering the anti-incumbent sentiment of these times. --- turnturnturn your brain in http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/5/2010 5:42:50 AM | message detail |
Who the hell anti-votes Snake? --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Achromatic | Posted 2/5/2010 5:45:15 AM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #299 Who the hell doesn't vote for Protoman? --- Dragon Quest V is awesome Sir Chris |
