GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 814

voltch | Posted 2/2/2010 9:07:39 AM | message detail
DISSIDIA BOOST!

Believe!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

The Fodder Line - A final X-Stat value of 15% or below.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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rpgapzx | Posted 2/2/2010 9:35:36 AM | message detail
Reposting this here, as its likely to get lost in end of 813

I did North America gets 70% in the night and 80% in the day
Europe gets 18% at night and 12% at day

The others shift about 2%.


Nice. When you say night, you mean our night?(midnight-noon)

So in a match like this where NA is SZ 54/46 and Europe is 46/54(current numbers, small sample size at this point, examples sake), those numbers would peg a NA/Europe only match at

Day: SZ wins 48.7%-43.3% = Net 5.4%
Night: SZ wins 46.1%-41.9% = Net 4.2%

So the difference is just above 1% with split difference in such an example. If the differences in voting patterns b/w Europe/NA are larger than this, it can have even a larger effect.

Obviously, this is super simplistic, and doesn't account for the fact that voting patterns change within NA and Europe themselves because of whether the match is day or night, but it pretty much confirms what we already know - it only makes a difference if the splits are pronounced or if the match was close in the first place.
Lightslayer987 | Posted 2/2/2010 9:45:47 AM | message detail
Massive spike for Tidus there.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 2/2/2010 9:46:37 AM | message detail
mmmmm
Nomchan | Posted 2/2/2010 9:46:48 AM | message detail
Tidus is still in this.
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nintendo girl | Posted 2/2/2010 9:47:17 AM | message detail
From: Lightslayer987 | #003
Massive spike for Tidus there.

And subby still gained!
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Achromatic | Posted 2/2/2010 9:47:20 AM | message detail
Is this going to turn into one of those "Subby will build a lead in the first hour, lose steam, tidus will come back, andwinner will barely win'

if so those are cool
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/2/2010 9:47:21 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Darth_Voltch | Posted 2/2/2010 9:47:22 AM | message detail
you just need faith!
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 2/2/2010 9:47:23 AM | message detail
YEAAAAAH SUB-ZERO
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vcharon | Posted 2/2/2010 9:47:24 AM | message detail
Come on, cut upcoming.
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:>
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/2/2010 9:47:47 AM | message detail
I DELETED IT IT DOESN'T COUNT!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/2/2010 9:48:05 AM | message detail

From: Nomchan | #005
Tidus is still in this.


He didn't cut votes, so I doubt it. Just glad he at least got a percentage cut.

I'm sure everyone will nom the winner's choice when it comes down to it, though.

I dunno. A lot of people renegged on nominating Toadette. I know Crono's a different situation, but I think a lot of people would react badly to a Noble Niner being chosen as the Guru choice.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/2/2010 9:48:18 AM | message detail
In response to this:

I know sox won't really nominate Crono, but even if he did, I'd get upset at anyone who just refused to hold onto their end of the deal. I'm sure everyone will nom the winner's choice when it comes down to it, though.

I consider the Guru nomination a great way for us to get new blood into this contest, even if it's someone random favorite fodder character like Prinny. Using a Guru nomination on Crono is flat-out insulting and serves no purpose. I've nominated several people I didn't like/thought would be trash that were picked for the Guru, but I would never, ever support a Noble Niner.

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MarquessLaus | Posted 2/2/2010 9:48:28 AM | message detail
Man I like Dissidia so much, I still want to see Tius take this even after realsing my bracket clearly says Sub-Zero for the next match.
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Darth_Voltch | Posted 2/2/2010 9:48:32 AM | message detail
Ngirl will embarass you too, somehow.
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Redtooth | Posted 2/2/2010 9:49:38 AM | message detail
excellent 500 post IMO.

Why bother joining the guru unless you're ready to nom whatever crap the winner decides. Unless you don't care that no one would nominate your pick if that comes around...

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Lightslayer987 | Posted 2/2/2010 9:50:09 AM | message detail
I'd be fine with nominating a fringe character, like say... Axel for example, just to make sure he gets in. But a noble niner? I'd refuse.
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nintendo girl | Posted 2/2/2010 9:50:16 AM | message detail
I still don't know if I'd pick Epona or Chibi-Robo...

Probably Chibi because I hope Epona gets a big rally anyway. And there's no other way in hell Chibi-Robo ever gets in.
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;_;
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/2/2010 9:51:18 AM | message detail
I would complain about Crono, but if I won I'd probably force a Cecil nomination so he could get a chance at making it to the third round. >_>
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Darth_Voltch | Posted 2/2/2010 9:51:23 AM | message detail
chibi-robo?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/2/2010 9:51:28 AM | message detail
If someone picks a character like Crono for the Guru nom, I'll do my part and nominate him, but I sure ain't gonna be happy about it! That's like if I put Crono in the NRT and he won.

It's a waste.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/2/2010 9:51:35 AM | message detail
I would certainly hope that people would ignore me if I won the Guru and picked Link or some crap.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Agent M | Posted 2/2/2010 9:51:52 AM | message detail
Losing Jecht wouldn't be much of a hit. Kinda like how we don't really need to see Cid again.

Just because a character doesn't break 40% on a NN doesn't mean they're worthless. Meanwhile, a lot of characters that ARE worthless persist on making every contest.

I'd say Cid is good, heck he held up better than Yoshi did.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/2/2010 9:52:08 AM | message detail
Cecil would be fine.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
ShatteredElysium | Posted 2/2/2010 9:52:15 AM | message detail
I hope Tidus makes some sort of fightback even if he ultimately loses just so things are at least interesting. Bored and need something to keep me entertained!
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ZFS | Posted 2/2/2010 9:52:19 AM | message detail
I'm not in the Guru thing, but someone who follows contests choosing a Noble Nine character to nominate is pretty much asking for people to rebel against the pick.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/2/2010 9:52:21 AM | message detail
Massive spike for Tidus there.

And then Tidus dropped off hard next update. Going from 337 to 394 and back down to 309 is weird.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/2/2010 9:52:28 AM | message detail
It's a waste, I'd mouth of to sox, but we still gotta do it.

That said, if I win, I might nominate Jill just to guarantee her a high seed. >_>

It's between Jill, Bayonetta, and Sheik at this point.
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Darth_Voltch | Posted 2/2/2010 9:52:41 AM | message detail
Prof oak or Zell, hmmm, gotta win the guru!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/2/2010 9:52:48 AM | message detail
I'm okay with not seeing Cid again as long as it's to replace him with Barret next year!
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/2/2010 9:53:31 AM | message detail
I get the dissent about Guru-nomming a Noble Niner; I'm all about the new-blood, too...but if you sign up for the Guru-contest knowing there are certain characters you won't nominate, you shouldn't have signed up.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/2/2010 9:53:32 AM | message detail
If I won the Guru I would probably pick Gilgamesh or something. I don't know. I would have to think about it.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/2/2010 9:53:39 AM | message detail
It's between Jill, Bayonetta, and Sheik at this point.

I'd be all for nominating Sheik as long as I know she's eligible. Someone would have to confirm that one with Bacon first.
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nintendo girl | Posted 2/2/2010 9:53:46 AM | message detail
From: Darth_Voltch | #016
Ngirl will embarass you too, somehow.

ExTha doesn't even need embarrassing. He's about to get 2 consecutive losing matches!
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That's just BAD.
ZFS | Posted 2/2/2010 9:54:11 AM | message detail
Just because a character doesn't break 40% on a NN doesn't mean they're worthless. Meanwhile, a lot of characters that ARE worthless persist on making every contest.

I wasn't really saying Cid is worthless, he's just pointless to see again. He's not especially strong and it's just another FFVII character. You could honestly fill in some other random FF character in Cid's place and be fine.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/2/2010 9:54:44 AM | message detail
I'd rather see Cid than any other FF7 guy because Cid is actually a good character!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Lightslayer987 | Posted 2/2/2010 9:54:59 AM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #032
I get the dissent about Guru-nomming a Noble Niner; I'm all about the new-blood, too...but if you sign up for the Guru-contest knowing there are certain characters you won't nominate, you shouldn't have signed up.


If the winner decides to troll everyone, we get to troll him back by refusing to nominate it.
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ZFS | Posted 2/2/2010 9:55:20 AM | message detail
Cid a good character I don't think so!

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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 2/2/2010 9:55:26 AM | message detail
I've never participated in the Guru, but if I did, I'd be willing to nominate Crono. That having been said, it'd certainly be a wasted opportunity - like KP said, it's best used on new characters and veterans at risk of being excluded.

There are a bunch of characters I'd consider choosing, personally. It'd probably end up being Jimmy T. from WarioWare, but then there's Marin, Fulgore, Kamek, New Age Retro Hippie... and The Blue Marble, of course!

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nintendo girl | Posted 2/2/2010 9:55:38 AM | message detail
http://www.myds.com.au/img/game/large/Chibi-Robo-Park-Patrol-2.jpg

Chibi-Robo.

Had an awesome GameCube game and then a follow up DS game. They were however, incredibly rare and because they look like kid's games and the main concept is tidying/cleaning/doing chores it got cast aside by gamers.
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Sad.
Redtooth | Posted 2/2/2010 9:55:48 AM | message detail
I'd probably have to go Ecco. And I thought I'd nominate whatever the winner decided, but after seeing some of you claim to renege for no reason, I wouldn't feel bad ignoring whatever you choose even if I liked it >_>

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Lightslayer987 | Posted 2/2/2010 9:56:26 AM | message detail
And as I've said before, I'd go for Crono's Mom. Best character from CT to not get into a contest yet.
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Greyfeld | Posted 2/2/2010 9:56:55 AM | message detail
I'd love to see Bayonetta in next year, but I'm 100% sure that she'd get voted off right away.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/2/2010 9:56:58 AM | message detail
but then there's Marin, Fulgore, Kamek, New Age Retro Hippie... and The Blue Marble, of course!

Glacius or nothing!
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 2/2/2010 9:57:02 AM | message detail
Chibi-Robo is pretty awesome, though! Park Patrol was a great game.

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KRATOS > CHARIZARD:
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/2/2010 9:57:16 AM | message detail
Ignoring a Noble Niner pick for the Guru isn't 'for no reason'. I'm pretty sure I've nominated every other Guru choice, even Toadette, and pretty much everyone reneged on Toadette.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
nintendo girl | Posted 2/2/2010 9:57:49 AM | message detail
I'd nominate anyone, be it a complete joke (Blue Marble), joke fodder (Chibi-Robo), Edgers (Axel), Noble Nine or even Link himself.
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Don't expect me to be happy about it though.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/2/2010 9:58:27 AM | message detail
Just because a character doesn't break 40% on a NN doesn't mean they're worthless. Meanwhile, a lot of characters that ARE worthless persist on making every contest.

Agreed. I'm STILL appalled that GUYBRUSH, of all people, not only continues to make the contests, but also at the fact that he's disgustingly overseeded.
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Darth_Voltch | Posted 2/2/2010 9:58:36 AM | message detail
I'd be mighty ****** if Link or Cloud got the noms, but there may be a point for someone like Megaman X who needed the vote ins or Crono to get a 2 seed, it's purely for placements in the bracket, rather than testing new blood though.
But a win's a win and you gotta respect that, not happy? Then you should have outpredicted the winner.
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