GameFAQs Contests

He can be the weakest of the 4 by a good margin, and still break 30%, not that I'd be the least bit surprised if he didn't.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

I think it should be pretty close to 70/30 myself, which is why I asked. I'm just stating a fact. Tails is the weakest of the main four Sonic Team guys who've been in these contests (to say nothing of Robotnik and Amy). Kratos is the character whose strength I'm unsure of, not Tails.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

The higher seeds are doing extremely well this year. Even the ones who have lost have all done well for themselves, especially with prediction percentage. It's as good an explanation for Kefka as any.
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I am the Dragon of Blood, a relentless prince of pain
Renouncing God on His throne, my blood is forever stained.

Why does seeding matter now all of a sudden? I don't see any reason for that to change.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

It matters a lot to casuals and bracket voters, which we have more of now than ever before. It also single-handedly won Laharl a match.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"Every man lives. Not every man truly dies."

Laharl won that match because he was stronger. Seeding and bracket voters don't make up an 8% difference, even in a fodder match.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: UltimaterializerX | #255
It matters a lot to casuals and bracket voters, which we have more of now than ever before. It also single-handedly won Laharl a match.

We've seen a lot more bracket support for lower seeded characters, and we have the 2nd fewest brackets we've ever had. We've already seen two 13 seeds be bracket favorites (and they both won), we've seen a 12 seed nearly be a bracket favorite and nearly win, and we've seen two 15 seeds get 45% bracket support (and one of them won). If anything, seeding matters less than it ever has.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

And it's not like Laharl's bracket support was overwhelming anyway. He had 62% of the brackets.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

We have fewer brackets this year than any year since 2002. On the other hand with 12-hour matches we have lower votals than any year since 2002. Not buying that bracket voting would be more important this year than before though.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Hey, let's not assume bracket-votes are determining so much of our contest at this time, especially when brackets in general seem to be doing worse than usual and I think we have fewer brackets than in previous years (could somebody fact-check this?).
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

THE DUKE requires your presence:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53297010
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(|| ' ' ||) Visio Vestri - Character Battle VIII Fanfiction Project
. /|_|\ http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53091233

Heart Division: Round 1 - Match 31 – (7) Charizard vs. (10) Duke Nukem

Moltar’s Analysis

Charizard
Just what we all needed, another Pokemon!

Duke
Ass and bubblegum. All he needs.

This is the most interesting match in the division. I think Charizard has this no problem, but if I learned anything from the 2007 and 2008 contests, it’s to not count out The Duke.

In 2007, Duke took first in a match many though Gordon and Ike would take. Yeah, he went on to embarrass himself next round, but The Duke’s journey wasn’t done there. He was only biding his time.

In 2008, Duke once again placed in the top two in a match many thought Kefka or Niko would take. He then went on to win his Round 2 match where Altair was the favorite over him. Then, he bowed out to Link and Zack.

Basically, Duke’s got some strength. It may not be much, but he’s not a total pushover. Unfortunately for him, this hurdle may be a bit too big. Here, we’ve got one of the main faces of the Pokemon franchise, Charizard.

We saw “Pokemon Trainer” Red in action, and while beating Ocelot is decent, I expect Charizard to be better than that. I mean, if that little rat can be so strong, I would expect the far cooler and more likable Charizard to be at least as strong, if not stronger than that. Charizard may not be “the face of the franchise”, but he is definitely the most popular starter among R/B/Y and even today, he’s probably still the favorite. He should have some very solid strength, whereas I wouldn’t say Duke is that far away from the fodder line.

Duke will probably keep this respectable since it’s a night match. And that picture…eh, I’m still feeling confident with Char.

Moltar’s Bracket: Charizard > Duke

Moltar’s Prediction: Charizard: 58% - Duke: 42%



Lopen’s Analysis

Charizard has a wide range. Things like Jigglypuff and Nidoran F and Lucario tell us that Pokemon != Instant Win. Charizard probably does better than those... but honestly I wouldn't have expected Jigglypuff to do bad either. And with Jigglypuff we know that even the so called fan favorites (it totally is a fan favorite!) can get their asses handed to them. So I'm gambling that he falls on the weak end. Being a dragon can only get you so far, especially when you're up against a badass like Duke Nukem.

Meanwhile Duke Nukem... balls of steel and not to be underestimated. Now I'm thinking that Pokefreakz saw this match and thought "Balls of Steel? Steel type. Super effective." Well the Duke's balls can weather any fire based attack from that weak dragon, believe you me. Next match.

Truly, he is the symbol of America, and the match pic (which has made me all the more confident of this pick working out) makes that very clear. Defeat the Japanese mind control machine, in AMERICA.

Lopen's prediction:
Duke Nukem with 55.74% Hail to the King, baby.



Transience’s Analysis

Apparently Duke Nukem has some god tier picture and is now going to curbstomp Charizard because of this. What?

Don't get me wrong, I'm down with picking Duke Nukem over Charizard. I advocated this for a while because I'm just not sold on the 'zard. But Duke Nukem always looks awesome. That's his appeal, his entire appeal. He's over the top, ridiculous and with a gun.

Like Arthas, I've always been skeptical of the Duke in fourways. He's looked decent the last couple of years, but before 2007 we never thought about Duke at all really. He's been blessed with the right matchups - pre-Brawl Ike, Lucario and Marth together, lettuce kefka, etc. Duke's best win was over Altair. I don't really know what to make of him.

Meanwhile, we have Charizard. Not a classic Smash character or a guy that has real plot relevance, but an awesome starter in the old days. I don't think this guy can compete with Mewtwo. He'll certainly get the Pokemon fan vote, but I don't know how deep that runs. I see Mewtwo and Pikachu as guys that anyone can vote for, but only people who really like the games are going to vote for Charizard. Fortunately, RBY looks to be a top 5 game on this site so he should have plenty to be able to deal with Duke Nukem.

I don't think Charizard is a universal choice for starter like other people do, so I don't know if he reaches ALL of the RBY fans like other RPG mains would, but he should hit enough to beat what is essentially a joke character in Duke Nukem.

transience's predix: Charizard with 61.03%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Charizard > The Duke, 58.89%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Oh god, here we go. I'm not drinkin' the Charizard kool-aid until it gets shoved down my throat, so he better put up or shut up here. That being said, Duke Nukem isn't exactly the toughest opponent (that'll be next round). Red didn't exactly inspire confidence, but the Pokemon themselves should be a good deal stronger than that dude. Duke always seems to rise to the occasion, so he might actually do fairly well here. Boy, wouldn't that be embarrassing. I'm not normally one to gloat about correct predictions in the character battles of all things, but if Charizard finds a way to lose this to Duke, I'm gonna laugh pretty hard. He's still going to need to win by a pretty large margin to convince me that he's got a shot at Kratos next round, but hey, stranger things have happened.


Bracket: Charizard
Favorites: Charizard (Duke sux)
Prediction: Charizard with 62.05%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Following impressive performances by Pikachu and Pokemon RBY, Charizard won the Nomination Rally Tournament on Board 8, and earned enough nominations to make his first contest. I took the Charizard > Kratos upset, but never felt great about it, and don’t feel good about it now. But before he can face Kratos next round, Charizard must defeat Duke first, and that may not be all that easy. Duke faced Kefka, Altair, and Zack last year. All 3 of them have impressed this year, which says good things about Duke. Duke got 39.5% on Zack, who’s probably around Zelda level or a bit higher. Zack getting 30% on Link 3 times last year said this, and his victory over Yuna confirmed it- Crono/Zack would probably be around a 55/45 win for Crono.

In comparison, Pikachu got 42% on Crono in round 4 and 46% in round 3, the match where he slew L-Block and smote him upon the towers of Thangorodrim. The 42% is probably more accurate for that reason, and nonetheless we see that Pikachu would probably win pretty easily over Duke, getting high 50s. The question then becomes: Is Charizard as strong as Pikachu? My best guess is that he isn’t quite as strong as Pikachu, but is only a little below him.

If Charizard is weaker than Mewtwo, he may be in trouble Duke. Even if he were at Mewtwo level, he may still not be out of the woods, as Duke has an awesome picture with the US flag plus a night match. I think Charizard will be a bit stronger than Mewtwo though, and yet I respect the picture advantage Duke may have here, so I’m predicting Charizard to win a fairly close one.

Prediction: Charizard with 51.00%
Upset Potential: 35%
Upper Bound: Charizard with 59.00%
Lower Bound: Duke with 55%

Match XXXI: (7) Charizard vs. (10) Duke Nukem

Information

Name: Charizard
Game/Series: Pokemon
Previous Contest: N/A
Performance: N/A

Name: Duke Nukem
Game/Series: Duke Nukem
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 3

Analysis

If there was an award for one character that got the most debate it would easily go to Charizard. Depending on whom you ask Charizard could lose in the first round or he can win the entire division. The debates got so bad pre-contest that everyone basically agreed to disagree and say that Charizard will do the talking once his match comes. Well here he is and with Duke Nukem as a measuring stick it’s time to see where Charizard ranks.

Unless we are on a Pokemon fan site thinking any Pokemon is stronger than Pikachu is pretty ridiculous. Not everybody is that in tune with Pokemon so why wouldn’t the most famous Pokemon not be the strongest, especially when anti-voting Pokemon is deader than dead. We’ve also seen fan favourites from other games being weaker than the main character. This doesn’t mean that Charizard is weak either, Pokemon RBY is one of the strongest games on the site and Charizard is a fan favourite within the series.

I feel that the base for Charizard is Pokemon Trainer Red, while I believe that the guy would win over all, but a handful of Pokemon Charizard is part of that handful. At worst this puts Charizard at just above the fodder line and while Duke Nukem is clearly above that line it doesn’t quite give him enough breathing room to be considered a favourite in this match.

Most people rank Charizard at around Mewtwo’s level which would mean he should win this match rather easily before bowing respectfully to Kratos in the next round. This area is probably where Charizard ranks as both Pokemon are fairly popular within the Pokemon fanbase and were able to make a decent splash in the mainstream media.

Duke Nukem has a decent chance for an upset, but right now Charizard is going in as the favourite. Also does anyone think of the theme song for GI Joe when they see the picture for this match, I know I do.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Charizard > Duke Nukem

charmander6000’s Prediction: Charizard wins, 56.37% - 43.63%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 21/28 - Today's Winners: HK-47 and Isaac

Guest’s Analysis - Kanzaris Kelshen

So finally, we come to another hotly debated match, though the debates have almost completely died down after Pokémon's representatives have come out and showed their strength. On one side, we've got a fairly consistent low-midcarder in Duke, who has a good night vote and gets to avoid his terrible day vote for the most par today. On the other corner of the ring, we have Charizard, a new character who has been pushed by the board extremely heavily (he won the NRT in an impressive fashion, winning all or almost all of his matches and quite handily at that) after RBY's performance in the Games contest. There's been a lot of speculation about his strength, as his range could be as low as just a little above Red to as high as Pikachu or better. Arguments about his recognizability, his very appealing character design and more have been slung. With Pokémon having validated itself in its two matches, things look bad for Duke. So the question is, what are Mr. Nukem's chances at pulling the upset?

The answer? Not too good. With Red as a floor (who's at least as good as Ocelot), Duke doesn't have a lot of ground on his opponent. Further, most reasonable analysis' project Charizard to be at Mewtwo's level or slightly higher, and that is good enough to defeat Duke in a relatively close, but not too close match. Mr. All Outta Gum's supporters will have to pray for a massive flop from Charizard for Duke to win, and relying on your opponent's weakness instead of your own strength is never a good sign. Thus, the real question here is probably not *if* Charizard will win, but by how much. If he flirts with the doubling, it'll be up to Kratos to demolish Tails and prove he's still the favorite to reach the divisional finals for a hype-boosted match with Sora. If he comes close to the tripling, Sora should thank his lucky stars for giving him his ASV during the divisional finals, because he'll need it to defeat the new strongest Pokémon and easily the most powerful newcomer in a long time. Until the firebreathing poster boy for RBY proves his worth, however, let's stick to more reasonable expectations:

Kan's bracket: Charizard
Kan's Vote: Duke
Kan's Prediction: Charizard with 59.08%



Crew Consensus: Duke has a lone supporter, but everyone else is going with Charizard.

Looks like I'm part of the crew for this match.

Also looking back at Pokemon Trainer Red he was able to get 54.5% on Ocelot and with Duke having a worse board vote, things could get ugly at first.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 21/28 - Today's Winners: HK-47 and Isaac

Given Pokemon's board vote, I doubt this is even a match. People are going to be calling for a Charizard > Kratos upset 30 minutes in.
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MUSIC CAN BE OBJECTIVELY DEFINED AND ITS QUALITY EMPIRICALLY MEASURED BY THE INEQUALITY [WHAT I LIKE > WHAT YOU LIKE]. -Jaraqua Lefty Jones

Duke'll impress, but I think Charizard's still got this.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Yeah if Charizard defeats Duke with 55% he'll probably have something around 62% at the end of the first five minutes.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 21/28 - Today's Winners: HK-47 and Isaac

man some seriously high expectations here for someone to never make a contest before
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2r2ri13.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #270
man some seriously high expectations here for someone to never make a contest before

You've got to get over this "Never made a contest" stuff. That's got nothing to do with whether or not Charizard will do well.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

From: LeonhartFour | #271
You've got to get over this "Never made a contest" stuff. That's got nothing to do with whether or not Charizard will do well.

Who's the strongest to take 5+ years to make a contest without any restrictions keeping them out? Mewtwo? And I'm not even sure I'd take Mewtwo over Duke, and thats about what I'd call Charizards ceiling.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2r2ri13.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Aren't you the guy who's never played Pokemon before?
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Good Times,
Great Memories

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #272
Who's the strongest to take 5+ years to make a contest without any restrictions keeping them out? Mewtwo? And I'm not even sure I'd take Mewtwo over Duke, and thats about what I'd call Charizards ceiling.

Zack Fair.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

...Is Duke even stronger than Ocelot?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/30/2010 11:39:29 PM | #272
Who's the strongest to take 5+ years to make a contest without any restrictions keeping them out? Mewtwo? And I'm not even sure I'd take Mewtwo over Duke, and thats about what I'd call Charizards ceiling.

You've clearly never played any Pokemon games for even 5 minutes.
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http://board8.speedrunwiki.com/interviews/theshow/ngirlreaction.gif

From: LeonhartFour | #274
Zack Fair.

I said without restriction. As far as I know, there was always a FFVII restriction on the amount of characters. Its why Tifa wasn't in 2007.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2r2ri13.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Based on the last time we saw Duke 1-on-1 (2004), he was barely above the VFL. I don't know if that's changed, but it sure seems like it has based on the last two years.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #277
I said without restriction. As far as I know, there was always a FFVII restriction on the amount of characters. Its why Tifa wasn't in 2007.

There was no reason he couldn't have made it in 2005. There were only 2.

Or in 2003 when there were only 3.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Duke is no longer fodder. He's pretty strong.

If Charizard ends up with 60%, I wouldn't hesitate for a second in him beating Kratos.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

I'd probably take Charizard > Mewtwo and I'd feel good enough taking Mewtwo > Duke. Fantastic picture or not, if the 'Zard isn't far from Mewtwo, he'll likely take this match.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Obviously Vincent, Tifa, Aerith and the like got more noms.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2r2ri13.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

A restriction wasn't why Zack didn't make the contest. He probably didn't even receive a nomination until Crisis Core came out.

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart

From: HaRRicH | #281
I'd probably take Charizard > Mewtwo and I'd feel good enough taking Mewtwo > Duke. Fantastic picture or not, if the 'Zard isn't far from Mewtwo, he'll likely take this match.

Oh, no doubt Charizard is the favorite. But I'm seeing 62-65% on Duke. Thats high mid card, almost near elite level. Thats going way overboard on a guy we've never seen.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2r2ri13.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

From: ZFS | #283
A restriction wasn't why Zack didn't make the contest. He probably didn't even receive a nomination until Crisis Core came out.

Shhhh

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #282
Obviously Vincent, Tifa, Aerith and the like got more noms.

Zack has a higher seed than Tifa, Vincent, Aerith, or Cid this year!
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

From: UltimaterializerX | #267
Given Pokemon's board vote, I doubt this is even a match. People are going to be calling for a Charizard > Kratos upset 30 minutes in.

I've been calling for the Charizard demolition of Kratos for months, boy!
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/30/2010 11:43:47 PM | #282
Obviously Vincent, Tifa, Aerith and the like got more noms.

Glad to know only one Board 8 member was privy to past nomination tallies.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
http://a3.twimg.com/profile_images/502993547/Kefka_-_Laugh_bigger.gif

And the reason Charizard hasn't made it in for a while is because Pokemon hadn't been strong for a while. 2k6 Series Contest was the first time in a long time where the series showed life.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: LeonhartFour | #285
Zack has a higher seed than Tifa, Vincent, Aerith, or Cid this year!

Because of ZackFAQs and people wanting to see him back.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2r2ri13.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Pokemon supporters vs. Albion

nobody wins tonight
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!

By the way, 15% seems like a good fodder line cutoff point.
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http://board8.speedrunwiki.com/interviews/theshow/ngirlreaction.gif

No matter what the final outcome is, the Charizard/Kratos board vote will be ridiculous. Those are opposite ends of the spectrum.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: KleenexTissue50 | #290
Pokemon supporters vs. Albion

nobody wins tonight

We win

IN AMERICA
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

In 2k4, Aeris had problems even getting into the top 100 nomination getters. I can't imagine Zack doing much better. Considering he wasn't named by CJayC as a being blocked due to the cap, I see no reason to believe Zack was anywhere near getting in in 2k4. I'm not sure about other years, but I doubt it changed much until Zack got his game.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #284
Oh, no doubt Charizard is the favorite. But I'm seeing 62-65% on Duke. Thats high mid card, almost near elite level. Thats going way overboard on a guy we've never seen.

get ready to have your mind blown when Charizard hits 70%!

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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg

Pokemon supporters vs. Albion

Hey now, I think Duke is pretty strong. Like I said before, I'm expecting mid/high 50s for Charizard, but that should still be enough to take on Kratos. If Charizard finishes above 60%, there should be no reason why Kratos should be favored over him.
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Good Times,
Great Memories

From: ExThaNemesis | #295
get ready to have your mind blown when Charizard hits 70%!

Squall (2007c) VS Duke Nukem (2007c)

Squall has a strength of 35.43.
Duke Nukem has a strength of 20.87.

Squall wins with 70.55% of the vote!
A win of 60,132 with 146,324 total votes cast.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2r2ri13.jpg
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

LOL 4WAY STATS
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
All you love is a lie.

Even if Charizard does well tonight, there's a pretty good chance it's just Duke laying an egg rather than Charizard being strong. I feel like Duke's similar to Arthas in that he's a product of circumstance. There's no reason for him to have boosted from his early years, so I doubt he looks as good this year as he did the past couple. And even then, you could argue what "good" really is based on his opponents.
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!

I must have missed something here. When did Duke suddenly get strong? Not saying he's fodder, but he's not all that good either.

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart