GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 808

Karma Hunter | Posted 1/29/2010 11:01:51 AM | message detail
Dissidia boost on par with KHF?

...dammit, SquareFAQs.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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Nomchan | Posted 1/29/2010 11:02:29 AM | message detail
lol Frog
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~ Birth by Sleep ~
A flat chest is a status symbol, it has immeasurable value. - Mayumi-chan
charmander6000 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:04:59 AM | message detail
Frog has one hour to gain percent before he submits to the ASV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 19/26 - Today's Winners: Kefka and Bowser
charmander6000 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:05:44 AM | message detail
Actually is seems that Frog is doing better in North America

Go Figure.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 19/26 - Today's Winners: Kefka and Bowser
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:05:59 AM | message detail
Jecht for division finals come on then
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Now this is entertainment!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/29/2010 11:06:40 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #004
Actually is seems that Frog is doing better in North America

Go Figure.


CT always does best in NA though, doesn't it?
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
H__RR____H | Posted 1/29/2010 11:08:29 AM | message detail
I'm with ya KH, and it feels like Dissidia's the answer at this point in time...but then I would expect Zidane to kill Claptrap worse than he did. I also don't think Nintendo-characters generally get that kind of boost from the SSB-games (Meta-Knight with SSBB-hype went from 54.25% on Peach in 2007 to 57.46% in last month's vote-in) and we can agree Square's fanfare-fighter on the PSP isn't as big or well-received as Nintendo's fanfare-fighter spanning multiple consoles.

I dunno. Dissida's a common factor here, but given what we've seen before in past stats and similar situations it's hard to give it that kind of credit at this time.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/29/2010 11:10:03 AM | message detail
Yeah, it could be Dissidia, but it's not as big as Brawl. Cecil's performance could also really be chalked up to Zack Fair who also looked strange in that match. Claptrap is unknown. Kefka is the best evidence of it so far.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:10:36 AM | message detail
Maybe if you guys played Borderlands you would see that Claptrap is not weak.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 19/26 - Today's Winners: Kefka and Bowser
voltch | Posted 1/29/2010 11:10:38 AM | message detail
Maybe lot of people pirated dissidia, making it a hidden boost of sorts.
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Shakes Fist!
H__RR____H | Posted 1/29/2010 11:15:21 AM | message detail
I tried not to hate on Claptrap like a lot of the topic did -- I found him funny and am told it's everywhere in that game. I thought where he landed on Zidane was fine...if Dissidia did nothing. If Dissidia did to Zidane what we think it may have done for Cecil and Kefka though, that's a different story. Since it's a newcomer, it could still be its own strength and I'm just now starting to under-rate him, but I'd like to see more before I believe that.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/29/2010 11:22:27 AM | message detail
If Claptrap actually is stronger then we thought, that can only mean good things for Vault Boy. He may break 40% on Leon.
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/29/2010 11:30:45 AM | message detail
I dunno if he'd be a solid mid-carder just yet.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:32:53 AM | message detail
Claptrap doesn't need to be a mid-card for Zidane to have a large boost, even high fodder would boost Zidane quite a bit.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 19/26 - Today's Winners: Kefka and Bowser
red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:44:21 AM | message detail
Albion, Bowser would need to double Frog here to make Crono/Yoshi look even. Crono's always been that far or farther above Frog.

If this ends around 62%, it'll just look like CT has stayed the same since 2008. That's very disappointing for me since I was expecting a CTDS boost, but doesn't indicate any further dropping.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
charmander6000 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:46:06 AM | message detail
Well Frog got 35% on Ganondorf last year, how would a Ganondorf/Bowser match go?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 19/26 - Today's Winners: Kefka and Bowser
H__RR____H | Posted 1/29/2010 11:48:14 AM | message detail
Probably like Ganon/Luigi: Ganon should win, but a big picture difference might sway the vote. Bowser lost to Luigi pretty easily in 2008, but I don't think that would matter much against Ganon; Bowser/Luigi should probably be equals in this scenario.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:49:35 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 11:50:44 AM | message detail
Assuming a constant Frog from 2008 to 2010 (it pains me so much to say this), and assuming Bowser finishes at 63%, Ganondorf is projected to get 51.91% on Bowser, almost identical to what he was projected to get in 2005 through Sephiroth. If you think Frog boosted then Bowser does better, if you think Frog dropped then Ganon does better.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/29/2010 11:54:10 AM | message detail
Looking at Magus it's hard to say Frog wouldn't suffer the same fate.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 1/29/2010 12:14:45 PM | message detail
Assuming a constant Frog from 2008 to 2010 (it pains me so much to say this), and assuming Bowser finishes at 63%, Ganondorf is projected to get 51.91% on Bowser, almost identical to what he was projected to get in 2005 through Sephiroth. If you think Frog boosted then Bowser does better, if you think Frog dropped then Ganon does better.

Seems fair enough. Frog and Magus have clearly dropped from where they used to be, but the last 2 contests they've been consistantly bad. I still would like to see that Bowser/Ganon match one of these days.
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/29/2010 12:31:30 PM | message detail
Bowser would probablt take out ganon.
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 1/29/2010 12:32:32 PM | message detail
I don't know, the 2 seem tied at the hip. Both looked like crap last year at any rate...
voltch | Posted 1/29/2010 12:40:00 PM | message detail
Bowser and ganon may seem similar, but in a straight up match, what stops it being a mario/link situation where nintendo's base goes all ZELDAAAAAAAAA! and breaks bowser?
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Shakes Fist!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 12:42:11 PM | message detail
k yeah remember what I said about Ike still being the heavy favorite to win in Round 2?

Screw that. Time for ZIDANEFAQS

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/29/2010 12:46:37 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #025
k yeah remember what I said about Ike still being the heavy favorite to win in Round 2?

Screw that. Time for ZIDANEFAQS


Dissidia boost time aw yeah

Man, maybe my Zidane > Ike pick will pay off after all! Worked for Kefka
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 12:50:07 PM | message detail
Also, if Dissidia is doing this much, just wait for that massive 358/2 Days boost for Roxas!

(I'm only half joking)

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/29/2010 12:51:11 PM | message detail
Roxas > Tidus CONFIRMED

This might work out for you afterall Kamikaze
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holy crap, you used an apostrophe to make a word plural at least 3 times in that post. that's like cryptonite to me if I was batman - Bako Ikporamee
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 12:51:33 PM | message detail
But Tidus was in Dissidia too augh

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 1:05:46 PM | message detail
A more calm reaction, after a few hours.....

I suppose everything is not lost yet. The CTDS boost is gone, or at least, it was cancelled out by 2 more years of natural falling, but Frog isn't getting completely wiped out here. Crono and Frog are probably around the level of their 2008 selves.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 1:08:57 PM | message detail
Bacon now has USA and World maps. Frog is winning in Russia and China......looks like Mario really is a communist and Bowser is the capitalist hero fighting against him. Frog is of course Mario's apprentice in the Dark Side (winning ultra close matches).
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/29/2010 1:13:42 PM | message detail
aww yea 70% update
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 1:22:46 PM | message detail
Bowser by the hour:

1:00 | 62.63%
2:00 | 61.89%
3:00 | 62.83%
4:00 | 63.53%

ASV not looking too bad so far. Thinking Frog can end this above 37% with the SNV, even if he falls below that in the next few hours.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
GrapefruitKing | Posted 1/29/2010 1:25:30 PM | message detail
he MUST end at exactly 63.70 so I can get a perfect prediction
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Oracle Challenge 2k10 - Rank: 42nd
Today's prediction: Bowser with 63.70% Status: good
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 2:07:00 PM | message detail
Good god this ASV sucks for Bowser.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/29/2010 2:09:17 PM | message detail
Aw yeah Kefka won by TEN THOUSAND votes.

Aw yeah Bowser beating up Frog almost as bad as Ganondorf. Makes sense; the pig's a bit stronger than Luigi and Weegi's a bit stronger than the turtle. Excellent results all around. I still wish Kefka/Bowser was a night match, but at least we'll have a fair comparison with Frog.

2007 says Frog is stronger than Midna by a small but not negligible amount (2% on Scorpion; not using Samus for obvious reasons). I'll grant that it's quite possible for that to have changed but I am content to have Bowser > Sora at this point.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 2:14:53 PM | message detail
All of Midna's matches had LFF in 2007. Using anything from that year is dumb.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/29/2010 2:16:53 PM | message detail
Who on earth was LFFing Midna in her first round match?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 2:17:56 PM | message detail
Kratos Aurion.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/29/2010 2:18:38 PM | message detail
And you're calling *me* dumb?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 2:19:08 PM | message detail
Please. Tales being Nintendo isn't exactly a new theory.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/29/2010 2:19:59 PM | message detail
And the support you have for this "theory" is...?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 2:20:19 PM | message detail
I find the theory of Tales being Nintendo extremely hard to accept. Or, at least, even if it were true, it's not enough to make up the difference between 40% on Scorpion and 25% on Cloud.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 2:21:13 PM | message detail
You mean besides ToS being on a Nintendo-exclusive console and having the exact same trends as Nintendo characters?

How about Kratos Aurion doing significantly worse with other Nintendo characters in the poll?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/29/2010 2:21:52 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #042
And the support you have for this "theory" is...?


2008 Midna.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 2:22:06 PM | message detail
Midna probably boosted a bit from 2k7 to 2k8 anyway (in addition to being free from LFF), which just makes using 2k7 even more stupid.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/29/2010 2:22:44 PM | message detail
I'll ask this question here, too:

Mewtwo vs. Axel, take your pick.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/29/2010 2:22:51 PM | message detail
It sounds about as good as my Link/Crono LFF theory. Although I still think that makes sense, so......
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/29/2010 2:23:48 PM | message detail
Crono doesn't have similar trends to Nintendo characters. ToS has the exact same trends as Nintendo characters.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/29/2010 2:23:56 PM | message detail
Trends and console LFF is pretty dumb, as you might put it.

And I don't recall Kratos Aurion ever doing anything of note, with or without Nintendo characters in the poll. Perhaps you'd like to back your assertion up?
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