GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 806

LeonhartFour | Posted 1/28/2010 7:18:13 PM | message detail
Which begs the question, how?

Crash.

Which makes me wonder how low the vote totals would be if Crash Bandicoot ever faced Lara Croft.
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 7:20:19 PM | message detail
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 7:20:25 PM | message detail
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 7:21:28 PM | message detail
Neku is a bit above average during the day. Laharl is just horrendous and is making him look good by comparisan.

Meanwhile, Neku is decent in the night and Laharl gets most of his strength during it. We might have seen more votals from a night match!

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/28/2010 7:22:30 PM | message detail
Less than two hours before Kefka ownage

Yes, that was intentionally vague
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paulg235 | Posted 1/28/2010 7:25:08 PM | message detail
This topic better fill up with Kefka quotes when the match begins.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 7:42:15 PM | message detail

From: EternalxCourage | Posted: 1/28/2010 10:06:49 PM | #139
I'm not touching that one.

I mean, you can conclude from his picture that he can't be very promiscuous.


Only Board 8's resident jealous guys make fun of any pics of mine.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:01:05 PM | message detail
Match XXVII: (5) Kefka vs. (12) Arthas Menethil

Information

Name: Kefka
Game/Series: Final Fantasy VI
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 1

Name: Arthas Menethil
Game/Series: Warcraft
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 2

Analysis

Every contest I always have a pick where by the time the match came around I’m left wondering on how I ended up going with that character. I have Kefka winning this match and I can’t really think of any reasons of why he would win without stretching them. Kefka’s contest history has been filled with failure to live up to the high expectations of other people; since most people expect him to lose I’m not quite sure how Kefka would be able to fail.

Not much was thought about Arthas when he first came on the scene in 2007 yet he managed to defeat Diablo in a token match for third. This already puts him in a good position since Diablo was able to defeat Kefka back in the villains contest. Since then Arthas became more prominent in World of Warcraft which can further boost his strength. I wouldn’t say Arthas is strong overall, but considering his opponent is famous for choking it isn’t hard to see why he’s the favourite.

The only way Kefka could manage to win is through a Dissidia boost and while we’ve already had a couple of characters perform that was from Dissidia we still don’t have much solid proof. Cecil was SFF in the previous year while Zidane went up against a new character. Even if there was a boost for Kefka it may not even be enough for him to win.

The only interesting this about the match is for how long Kefka will lead. Kefka has one of the best board votes among the characters while Arthas is terrible, though with him having the support of brackets he may look a bit better.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Kefka > Arthas Menethil

charmander6000’s Prediction: Arthas wins, 56.47% - 43.53%

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:04:04 PM | message detail
The problem with hoping for a Dissidia boost from Kefka is that he's one of the worst characters in it, and you have to unlock him as well through a bunch of grinding, so I wouldn't expect a boost from villians to be as strong as Heroes who are avaliable from the start.
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Master Moltar | Posted 1/28/2010 8:08:20 PM | message detail
Heart Division: Round 1 - Match 27 – (5) Kefka vs. (12) Arthas Menethil

Moltar’s Analysis

Kefka
I think people nominate the guy just to see him fail.

Arthas
Someone who can actually win a debatable match here.

This would have been a good trap match a few years ago when it wasn’t common knowledge that Kefka sucks. Today, no one is going to fall for-.

“Hey, it’s Kefka! He’s got a high seed and his opponent is some Blizzard character. He’s going to win!”

Hey everyone, it’s Billy the Casual Bracketmaker! So, you think Kefka will win?

“Yep! He’s from FF6, one of the strongest Final Fantasy games!”

Well…that doesn’t necessarily translate into strength, Billy. Kefka’s shown himself to be pretty weak through all his losses over the years, especially to characters that aren’t even all that strong like Marth and Duke.

“Well…yeah…but he can at least beat Arthas! He doesn’t look that strong either!”

He looks to be a solid midcarder actually. He beat Diablo straight up and also beat Ike (okay Pikachu was there but hey). I wouldn’t take Kefka over those two, especially with Old Square looking weaker by the day. I mean, Ike didn’t look too hot in his match, but still, Prinny was an unknown. Then again, Thrall looked good against Link so that negates Ike’s suck!

“So…you’re saying Arthas will beat Kefka?”

Yep! Kefka will lose here. In 2008, I didn’t pick Kefka and it paid off…okay not really since I picked GTA instead ‘whoops’. But still, the point here is that this match isn’t even debatable. Arthas, from what we’ve seen, is a solid performer. Meanwhile, Kefka loses pretty much everything, and has lost to opponents that I would take Arthas to beat!

“Alright! You’ve helped me out once again! Thanks, Moltar, and now I know!”

And knowing is only half the battle.

Moltar’s Bracket: Arthas > Kefka

Moltar’s Prediction: Kefka: 40% - Arthas: 60%



Lopen’s Analysis

Now, I know I doubted 4 way stats for Zack and it totally backfired. Well, I'm presenting the same thing again. If it doesn't work this time, I'll probably drop the idea. But I see Arthas, and I see the perfect storm for looking too good in 4 way matches. This man's flagship game has like 15% playership on GameFAQs. Worse than Crisis Core for sure.

Now, there is Warcraft 3, and I do admit that that's an underrated portion of Arthas's strength, but I don't think it's enough. Further you look at how Ike did against the Prinny, and you can't help but doubt if this guy's actually 4REAL. I mean Ike with Pikachu in the poll almost beat this guy.

Kefka always chokes, but someday just like GFNW, you're gonna come to that point where Kefka can't possibly choke. I think Arthas is that point. Night match favors both, but I think it favors Kefka even more. Narrow victory for Kefka, just to spite all of ya now that you've finally given up on him.

Lopen's prediction:
Kefka with 50.66%



Transience’s Analysis

Fact: Kefka starts out a match really strong and dies quickly thereafter.
Fact: Kefka has a very, very strong night vote.
Fact: This is a short match that is taking place during Kefka's best hours.

This match is kind of tailor-made for Kefka. The only way it would be better is if Arthas was a day vote kind of guy. As it is, Arthas is actually just as good with the night vote as Kefka is, and probably stronger to boot. He certainly has looked stronger over the last couple of years, but that's in fourways. Arthas strikes me as the kind of guy that would thrive in fourways given the nature of Warcraft's fanbase. They're really insular and loyal, voting for their guys over anything. That doesn't always translate to a 1v1 match.
Master Moltar | Posted 1/28/2010 8:08:32 PM | message detail
What I'm trying to say here is that Kefka could very well win this match but that I will never pick him if I don't have to. Kefka has depressed the hell out of me too many times to back him without a reallllly good reason, and I don't have one here. If he wins, then good for him.

transience's prediction: Arthas with 55.11%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Arthas > Kefka, 52.61%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Why does Kefka have a 5th seed? Is everyone in on the joke and just like seeing him fail year after year? I'm going to go with yes, because there's no other reason to want this guy in the contest anymore. Last year Kefka decided he was going to job to 3 different characters. IN previous years he's lost to people he had no business losing to, and got scared by Mithos. I mean, really? At least Arthas looked pretty good last year, he's probably the strongest Blizzard character, and Thrall's performance on Link earlier this contest, so Arthas should put this one away comfortably. In fact, I'm willing to bet Kefka has one of his most embarassing performances ever tonight.


Bracket: Arthas
Favorites: Arthas
Prediction: Arthas with 63.28%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Kefka, the grand master of choking in contests, returns once again, and this time he faces Arthas, from the Warcraft series. A sizable portion of Board 8 took Kefka this year, as he once again dangled a seemingly winnable match in front of us. As the match has approached, however, his prospects have looked increasingly bleak. Alucard crushed Magus, beating him by about the same margin as he beat Arthas
last year- a very good sign for Arthas. Magus has always been much stronger than Kefka- before the freefall started, Magus beat Ganondorf in a close match while Kefka beat Pac-Man in a close match. He might have fallen a bit harder than Kefka over the years because he started off higher, but Magus/Kefka would not have been debatable before the contest, rendering Alucard's performance on Magus a very encouraging sign for Arthas.

Further, Arthas beat Diablo in 2007, and Diablo beat Kefka with 54% back in 2005. Kefka's fallen quite some way since then, and it would not be surprising to see Diablo- and therefore Arthas- win with 60% now. Thrall did well against Link, breaking 20%, and Arthas is probably a good deal stronger than Thrall, whose match against Link suggests could have a close match with Kefka now.

Ike did disappoint in his match with Prinny, which reflects badly on Arthas, but then, Prinny is an unknown. Ike got 62.5% on Prinny, and was probably a little above Arthas last year since he got quite close to him with Pikachu holding him down. Is Kefka really that much stronger than Prinny? He got beaten 58-42 by Marth, who's probably weaker than Ike by a fair bit- so Kefka might not even beat Prinny. Laharl’s performance today is making Ike’s performance on Prinny look more respectable, also.

Kefka does have a potential Dissidia boost, and while it should exist, it probably will be small, as Kefka is once again part of an ensemble cast, and the game was not that big. Lastly, this is a night match, which should help Kefka. Arthas is a night character too, so it shouldn't be too extreme a shift, but it should help Kefka a bit. Nonetheless, I am giving Arthas a very high prediction tonight.

Prediction: Arthas with 61.00%
Upset Potential: 5%
Upper Bound: Arthas with 66.00%
Lower Bound: Arthas with 54.00%
Master Moltar | Posted 1/28/2010 8:09:20 PM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera89

As much as I wanted to stick with my unlikely bracket upset here, more to make Justin_Crossing cry than in defence of my contest entry admittedly, my picks in debateable matches haven’t really been panning out all that well so far. Shadow, Liquid, Magus & co. have all been on the end of embarrassing beatings, not to mention the Nathan Drake’s and Neku’s of the world who just haven’t quite lived up to expectations. It seemed like Kefka would have all the necessary factors in his favour to take a close-ish match; it’s at night, he’s had Dissidia recently, Arthas isn’t a paragon of strength either; but look where concerted risks have gotten me. Time to huddle in with plain old common sense it seems.



Direct matches show why Arthas is the favourite. Kefka lost to Diablo in the villains contest by a comfortable margin. Two years later, Diablo’s fellow Blizzard avatar would then easily triumph over the Lord of Darkness, in what was admittedly 3rd place beating 4th. That’s fairly damning. In the contest the year after, whilst Arthas was clinging onto Pikachu’s coat-tails to get into Round 2, Kefka was once again underwhelming.



There have been surprises so far this contest, but no genuinely shocking results, and I don’t think it’s about to start now, although Kefka could still do well in defeat. The aforementioned factors still remain, and that should tighten the winning margin, and so the clown’s percentage is probably rather generous here. Call it a moral victory!



Arthas – 52.3%

Kefka – 47.7%



Crew Consensus: Arthas is the big favorite here. suck it kefka
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/28/2010 8:13:13 PM | message detail
...Do you guys just have the feeling that Kefka's gonna surprise us here and not suck it up?

Me neither.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:14:01 PM | message detail
Kefka will be leading in the beginning and B8 will be freaking out.

And then the fun will begin.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:14:06 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #163
...Do you guys just have the feeling that Kefka's gonna surprise us here and not suck it up?

Me neither.


Maybe during first 5 minutes. He'll likely be his same old self after that, though.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 1/28/2010 8:14:09 PM | message detail
I always get this feeling that the underdog is gonna over-perform and either look good or make it close.

This is the first time in years I haven't gotten that feeling.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:14:29 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #164
Kefka will be leading in the beginning and B8 will be freaking out.

And then the fun will begin.


If Kefka ISN'T leading by the freeze, I predict 60% easily for Arthas.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:15:31 PM | message detail
So how long does Kefka lead? Ike led for 1 hour.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:16:16 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #168
So how long does Kefka lead? Ike led for 1 hour.


And Kefka led Diablo nearly 5 hours in 2005 and still ended up being down 53-47% by Noon.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:16:45 PM | message detail
Kefka led Ocelot and Marcus for a while too.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/28/2010 8:18:10 PM | message detail
Ike also has a Power Hour. Looking at the last contest, basically, where Kefka finished at the end of the first hour was basically where he stayed for the whole night, and then the morning hit. Arthas had a horrible first hour, but his night vote brought him way up. Then the morning vote brought him way back down to first hour levels, and then his DSV went back up to night levels. His trends are very up and down. Kefka might be able to lead for an hour.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:19:08 PM | message detail
I knew Arthas was bad at the start, but I didn't know he started under 10% against Mega Man/KOS-MOS/Diablo.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:19:28 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #172
I knew Arthas was bad at the start, but I didn't know he started under 10% against Mega Man/KOS-MOS/Diablo.


Yeah... he might have the single worst board vote of any non fodder character.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/28/2010 8:19:32 PM | message detail
Yep, Warcraft in general has one of the worst first hours around.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:20:16 PM | message detail
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:20:29 PM | message detail
WRPGs in general do horribly in the beginning. See: Dragon Age, Oblivion.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:22:10 PM | message detail
Ike had 55% on Arthas by the freeze, and Arthas won it nearly 51-49%
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:26:13 PM | message detail
Yeah, Kefka could have 55% and I don't think anyone would call it for him.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:26:54 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/28/2010 11:04:04 PM | #159
The problem with hoping for a Dissidia boost from Kefka is that he's one of the worst characters in it, and you have to unlock him as well through a bunch of grinding, so I wouldn't expect a boost from villians to be as strong as Heroes who are avaliable from the start.


You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. The only annoying characters to unlock are Gabranth and Shantotto. Everyone else you can unlock with PP in any order you want.

Kefka is also #1 based on tournament data, by the way.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/28/2010 8:27:07 PM | message detail
I think Kefka could have 60% and he would still find a way to lose 52%-48%
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:27:57 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #179
You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. The only annoying characters to unlock are Gabranth and Shantotto. Everyone else you can unlock with PP in any order you want.

Kefka is also #1 based on tournament data, by the way.


Still takes time to grind... And I'm not talking about tournaments (people actually go to tournaments for DISSIDIA?!), I'm talking about casual fan favorites... and Kefka is very low on that list.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:28:02 PM | message detail
Kefka scared the crap out of Knuckles for a few hours back when NO ONE thought Kefka had a prayer.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:28:07 PM | message detail
60% is a bit much.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:28:57 PM | message detail
57% I'd say is about the max Kefka can have at the freeze to not call it a lock for him.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:29:08 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/28/2010 11:27:57 PM | #181
Still takes time to grind... And I'm not talking about tournaments (people actually go to tournaments for DISSIDIA?!), I'm talking about casual fan favorites... and Kefka is very low on that list.


You have no idea what you're talking about. You play through one Destiny Odyssey and you're guaranteed to have the 300 PP or whatever is necessary to unlock whatever villain you want. As always, you're pretending to know about games you don't even own.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:29:35 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #185
You have no idea what you're talking about. You play through one Destiny Odyssey and you're guaranteed to have the 300 PP or whatever is necessary to unlock whatever villain you want. As always, you're pretending to know about games you don't even own.


I have it and over 30 hours in it.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:31:24 PM | message detail
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:32:05 PM | message detail
So either you don't own the game, don't know what "grinding" means or you're just trolling. Grinding means you have to sit down and do useless crap over and over to get what you want. There is no grind whatsoever in getting the first 20 characters in that game.

You, as always, have no clue what you're talking about.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:32:25 PM | message detail
I kept on doing quick battles over and over again to get my first few characters but I've unlocked all the characters outside of Gabranth/FFXI girl. Still got half of the destiny things to do but they're boring, I prefer quick battles.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:33:33 PM | message detail
That's your own fault for having no clue what you're doing -- much like the way you post.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:34:40 PM | message detail
I have a kind of bad feeling about this, only because I predicted Arthas over 60%. If I had him around 55% I'd feel very confident, but 60% feels like asking a lot of him.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:36:07 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #190
That's your own fault for having no clue what you're doing -- much like the way you post.


You get turned on by being a jerk, don't you?
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:36:55 PM | message detail
Arthas isn't that strong he's only a low mid-card while Kefka is the fodder line.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/28/2010 8:37:48 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #192
You get turned on by being a jerk, don't you?


Thats where his amazing powers in the "Board 8 History" comics come from.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:38:17 PM | message detail
No, I just know for a 100% fact you're wrong. Saying it's a grind to unlock all but 2 of the Dissidia characters is a joke or trolling.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 8:38:34 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | Posted: 1/28/2010 11:37:48 PM | #194
Thats where his amazing powers in the "Board 8 History" comics come from.


Heh.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 1/28/2010 8:39:57 PM | message detail
Ulti isn't a jerk; Albion is just being as clueless as always. Don't get upset that Ulti is pointing out the obvious.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:14 PM | message detail
Growing up with Pokemon I don't find any games to have grinding.

Also Laharl with 60% prediction percent.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:42 PM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | #197
Ulti isn't a jerk; Albion is just being as clueless as always. Don't get upset that Ulti is pointing out the obvious.


I assume you wouldn't call unlocking Smash Bros characters as grinding either. different opinions; I think the way they are handled is grinding. If you don't, thats okay but don't call me stupid over it.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/28/2010 8:43:25 PM | message detail
I'm grinding in Darksiders right now!

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