GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 805

hellfire104 | Posted 1/28/2010 10:42:16 AM | message detail
Lol, I guess I screwed this one up. Next!
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Point Total: 23/26
My Bracket Says: Night: Arthas Day: Bowser
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 10:43:07 AM | message detail
finally hit 10k votes at the 1:40 mark
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 10:44:03 AM | message detail
I guess people just went it's square and you losers vote for everything FF maybe?
But Neku's cool, I hope he gets a sequel, heck if TWEWY2 was released i'd buy it real quick.
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Shakes Fist!
KingBartz | Posted 1/28/2010 10:45:36 AM | message detail
uh Laharl isn't Square...
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Contest score: 21/24 Today's picks: Sora & Laharl
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 1/28/2010 10:46:41 AM | message detail
He was refering to Neku.
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 10:46:45 AM | message detail
I'm saying because Neku is square people thought he wouldn't get crushed.
Heck every single NIS game that isn't disgaea seems to get murdered in polls.
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Shakes Fist!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 10:47:47 AM | message detail
Also, this poll completely and incontrovertibly proves that Dante>Ganondorf!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KingBartz | Posted 1/28/2010 10:51:06 AM | message detail
oh i thought he was talking about why Laharl's winning. my bad.
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Contest score: 21/24 Today's picks: Sora & Laharl
Lopen | Posted 1/28/2010 10:51:53 AM | message detail
So I come in to ask "aren't these votals terrible?"

Then I see talk about them. "So yeah"

Shame this is probably my favorite match so far in terms of how much I like both entrants!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 10:53:12 AM | message detail
either way 7 square characters down and more whining to come because they are winning.

and lopen has good taste in VG characters.
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Shakes Fist!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 10:54:28 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #309
Shame this is probably my favorite match so far in terms of how much I like both entrants!


Same here.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Seginustemple | Posted 1/28/2010 10:55:22 AM | message detail
Eh, Ganon/Mewtwo probably takes that for me.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 1/28/2010 10:56:44 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #296
Currently 3/4 wings of Icecrown Citadel (the dungeon he's the boss of) is open. He is in the final wing and should be opened up within a week or two. But really, you can't play WoW these days without Arthas everywhere. He's on loading screens, he's related to nearly every quest in Northrend, and he appears in a lot of quests himself. Last contest Wotlk wasn't even out yet; it was only hype. IF anything, I'd expect him to be stronger since then, because people who play WoW would have seen him now and haven't seen him if they weren't paying attention to the hype last contest.


Arthas > Bowser confirmed
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/28/2010 10:57:04 AM | message detail
This match is over 3000 votes behind Ike/Prinny.

Laharl's votals are less than 1000 above Prinny's at this point. By adding their votals together, Prinny gets 46.41% on Laharl.

I'm really hoping that Prinny gets more votes than Laharl. That would be utterly hilarious considering how Prinny failed to score 40% and Laharl's close to 60%.
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Not Wylvane
Lopen | Posted 1/28/2010 10:59:03 AM | message detail
Hmmm. I got curious.

Other contenders: Kirby v Rikku, Big Boss v Miles Edgeworth, Alucard v Magus

Ehhhh I guess the first two beat this match. So this would be #3 in terms of uhhh "overall likability factor."
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
EternalxCourage | Posted 1/28/2010 11:10:46 AM | message detail
I think if anything this match helps prove that Ezio and Altair are going far in this contest (more so for Altair, as Ezio has not yet been seen though it is most likely that he is around the same strength as Altair.)

I don't think there's a single person here that would have taken Midna over Liquid before Liquid vs. Altair. Even now, I doubt there is much argument for Midna beating Liquid other than 'lol Altari beat Liquid.' So taking the match of Altair vs. Liquid at face value, and assuming that Liquid lost strength and could only beat Midna 55 - 45 or worse, that still puts Altair at Sora's level. Even at this point people still say that Sora will beat Bowser and have a close match with Zelda (I don't know who is the favorite.)

Taking this into account I'm feeling more and more confident with Ezio > Zelda, and less and less confident with Kirby > Altair.

Anyway, I calculated it out and assuming everything in my bracket happens as I have it (with the upsets that is) I should win the contest by about 6 points (because I don't think anyone else with a serious bracket has the same upsets as I do.) This includes mistakes I've already made (like Drake > WCC and Aeris > Auron lol.

The Upsets

Charizard > Duke, Kratos, L-Block (loses to Sora)
Zack > Mega Man, Master Chief (loses to Mario)
Altair > Vivi (I doubt it's a common pick, loses to Kirby)
Ezio > Zelda, Ratchet (Loses to Samus)
Ryu > Dante, Leon Kennedy (Loses to Cloud)
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 1/28/2010 11:13:21 AM | message detail
For someone gutsy enough to take Zack > Mega Man, I'm surprised you didn't take Charizard > Sora too!
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Lopen | Posted 1/28/2010 11:14:07 AM | message detail
Well I'm convinced

Laharl vs Altair who ya got. SFF match and all.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 11:14:58 AM | message detail
If you think Ezio's beating Zelda, might as well go all the way and say Altair's beating Sonic.
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Shakes Fist!
paulg235 | Posted 1/28/2010 11:14:59 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #318
Well I'm convinced

Laharl vs Altair who ya got. SFF match and all.


WHoever wins, I lose points.

Damn those two for ruining my perfect.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 1/28/2010 11:16:59 AM | message detail
I think I've mentioned this before, but you're right that if 2008 Liquid Snake was his real strength and he hasn't fallen since then, Altair is going to clean house. If Ezio is as strong as Altair, he's going to wreck people brackets as well.
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EternalxCourage | Posted 1/28/2010 11:17:03 AM | message detail
Sonic is stronger than Zelda, @_@

Also, at this point it's hard to say whether or not Altair can put up good numbers on Sonic and Kirby. I think he can beat Kirby if he's as strong as he looks, and put up a good fight with Sonic.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
EternalxCourage | Posted 1/28/2010 11:18:04 AM | message detail
I said before that I think Liquid has fallen a bit, but not enough to take Altair out of contention with Kirby or Zelda (and the same goes for Ezio, I would imagine.)
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul.
voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 11:26:31 AM | message detail
Though looks like Altair is fast becoming the strongest new gen character.
So it's a success, we got 1 guy that can enter the mid midcarders who is new! YAY!
now for uncharted 3 and maybe, just maybe Drake can join him.
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Shakes Fist!
Seginustemple | Posted 1/28/2010 11:27:25 AM | message detail
Ryu > Dante, Leon Kennedy

This is the one I'd be most worried about
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/28/2010 11:29:42 AM | message detail
Midna > Liquid. Midna barely lost to Mewtwo in 2008, and Mewtwo did a little better against Ganondorf than Liquid against Altair. Anybody taking Liquid > Midna should consider Altair > Ganondorf.
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 11:30:27 AM | message detail
Has dante got any reasons to boost or stay constant?
I suppose Bayonetta indirectly boosts him, cos the game feels so much like DMC that Dante just reappears in people's minds, but other than that, what of say Leon, RE5 could boost him even if it's chris you play as, has Darksie chronicles been released?
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 1/28/2010 11:37:22 AM | message detail
Why do I have Belmont>Ezio?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 11:39:00 AM | message detail
Because you like losing points intentionally?
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Lopen | Posted 1/28/2010 11:43:15 AM | message detail
Belmont vs Ezio isn't a lock.

Or at least, it wasn't before the contest. Looking bleak now and I'm not sure I believe it's possible anymore.

But I'm just saying Belmont probably would've beaten or come close to beating Nathan Drake-- lot of reasons to think Ezio might be in the same ballpark.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 11:49:16 AM | message detail
Belmont was a distant third behind Sam Fisher. Him winning that match was always a pipe dream.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 11:51:01 AM | message detail
Distant fourth, even.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Seginustemple | Posted 1/28/2010 11:52:00 AM | message detail
Darkside Chronicles is out, yeah. I doubt it did very well.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/28/2010 12:05:19 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #277
Hahah, Frog with ease.


Quick, Frog vs. Mewtwo, who you got?

From: ExThaNemesis | #295
I'd still take Liquid over Midna. She lost to Scorpion.


Liquid probably would, too, at this point.
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 12:05:48 PM | message detail
DC still had an awesome trailer, i'd vote leon just for that epic trailer.
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Shakes Fist!
Lopen | Posted 1/28/2010 12:06:46 PM | message detail
Belmont got old school SFFed by Crono every time we saw him.

We saw his true strength in the vote in. "Cid Level" hail.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
HaRRicH | Posted 1/28/2010 12:09:20 PM | message detail
LFF'd Cid at that!
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/28/2010 12:12:38 PM | message detail
I'd take Midna over Liquid easily after that egg Liquid went and laid.
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EternalxCourage | Posted 1/28/2010 12:32:14 PM | message detail
Belmont probably would've beaten or come close to beating Nathan Drake-- lot of reasons to think Ezio might be in the same ballpark.

lol wut

What reasons are there to think that Ezio would be on the same level as Drake? There is no comparison...at all.
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LOLContests | Posted 1/28/2010 12:44:15 PM | message detail
Does anyone else find it odd that we have so few perfects? Thinking about things logically, there have really been only 7 50/50 matches so far, where there is no clear favorite (I mean in a logical sense, not a predictive sense. Just because Red had more brackets doesn't mean you couldn't make a clear argument against him.) Those matches are: Alucard/Magus, Red/Ocelot, Amaterasu/Shadow/, Nathan Drake/The Boss, Wesker/Ken, GladDOS/Fawful, and Altair/Liquid. Every other one has a clear favorite from a logical sense, based on what we know. Taking this into account, assuming someone always picks the clear favorite and only differentiates on the 50/50 matches, ~7.5% of the predictors should have perfect brackets (.5 x 7) Obviously, all 50/50 matches are not really 50/50 splits in predictors, but over time I would expect this to even out. However, the totals are far far less than that.

Now the reason behind this is obvious. People make "illogical" decisions, and the prediction percentages prove as such. Still, that's a large discrepancy. But it's not just the predictors at large. Look at the Gurus. These are people are allegedly trying their best to predict the contest, and thus would not make "illogical" decisions on any grand scheme. And yet, there's only 1 perfect left out of over 100 entrants, and there is only 1 additional person who would have a perfect if not for an "illogical" choice.

Now, I think at least one possible explanation for this is that people do not make their predictions in a vacuum. People make predictions based on what they assume trends will be, but if those trends are not consistent, their vision is broken. Drake/The Boss and Altair/Liquid contradicted themselves in their results, and had one or the other gone the other way, that the amount of perfects we have would be noticeably increased. Once again, this doesn't explain anything, but it is interesting to think that we tend to have less perfects than we statistically should.
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Yesmar
LOLContests | Posted 1/28/2010 12:46:17 PM | message detail
*doesn't explain everything.
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Yesmar
nintendo girl | Posted 1/28/2010 12:48:31 PM | message detail
There has only been 4 seeding upsets in the 26 matches so far.

Woah.
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o.0
Darth_Voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 12:54:30 PM | message detail
I'm just wondering how many non-B8ers can fare well in these contest environments, even if you take lurkers into account, how on earth do some of the casuals who don't access our ressources are able to compete with us?
I honestly can't imagine doing well without some of the tools like the B8 wiki.
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Join the Dark Side
nintendo girl | Posted 1/28/2010 12:56:32 PM | message detail
Eh, if you truly want to calculate the supposed number of perfects, multiply the prediction %ages. That's what tells you how hard a match was. The actual result is irrelevant.

And as it happens, after the first 10 matches, there's a 0.8% chance of a perfect based on the prediction %ages. After 2 divisions, there's a 0.096% chance of success.
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Those are pretty steep odds.
nintendo girl | Posted 1/28/2010 1:00:05 PM | message detail
From: Darth_Voltch | #343
I'm just wondering how many non-B8ers can fare well in these contest environments, even if you take lurkers into account, how on earth do some of the casuals who don't access our ressources are able to compete with us?
I honestly can't imagine doing well without some of the tools like the B8 wiki.


82.8% of the Gurus are in the 87th precentile. 60.8% of the Gurus are in the 94th percentile. In short, the casuals CAN'T compete with us.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 1/28/2010 1:08:42 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #340
Does anyone else find it odd that we have so few perfects? Thinking about things logically, there have really been only 7 50/50 matches so far, where there is no clear favorite (I mean in a logical sense, not a predictive sense. Just because Red had more brackets doesn't mean you couldn't make a clear argument against him.) Those matches are: Alucard/Magus, Red/Ocelot, Amaterasu/Shadow/, Nathan Drake/The Boss, Wesker/Ken, GladDOS/Fawful, and Altair/Liquid. Every other one has a clear favorite from a logical sense, based on what we know. Taking this into account, assuming someone always picks the clear favorite and only differentiates on the 50/50 matches, ~7.5% of the predictors should have perfect brackets (.5 x 7) Obviously, all 50/50 matches are not really 50/50 splits in predictors, but over time I would expect this to even out. However, the totals are far far less than that.

Now the reason behind this is obvious. People make "illogical" decisions, and the prediction percentages prove as such. Still, that's a large discrepancy. But it's not just the predictors at large. Look at the Gurus. These are people are allegedly trying their best to predict the contest, and thus would not make "illogical" decisions on any grand scheme. And yet, there's only 1 perfect left out of over 100 entrants, and there is only 1 additional person who would have a perfect if not for an "illogical" choice.

Now, I think at least one possible explanation for this is that people do not make their predictions in a vacuum. People make predictions based on what they assume trends will be, but if those trends are not consistent, their vision is broken. Drake/The Boss and Altair/Liquid contradicted themselves in their results, and had one or the other gone the other way, that the amount of perfects we have would be noticeably increased. Once again, this doesn't explain anything, but it is interesting to think that we tend to have less perfects than we statistically should.


19/20 Guru perfects were eliminated by Altair/Liquid. Pretty amazing the effects a single match can have, eh?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 1:17:24 PM | message detail

From: Darth_Voltch | Posted: 1/28/2010 3:54:30 PM | #343
I'm just wondering how many non-B8ers can fare well in these contest environments, even if you take lurkers into account, how on earth do some of the casuals who don't access our ressources are able to compete with us?
I honestly can't imagine doing well without some of the tools like the B8 wiki.


Only one B8 regular has ever won a contest.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 1/28/2010 1:17:52 PM | message detail
According to the Guru contest, 80% of the people who had The Boss over Drake had Liquid beating Altair. Compare that to only 47% of those who Drake winning having Liquid beating Altair. That's a larger difference than I thought it would be.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/28/2010 1:30:25 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #347
Only one B8 regular has ever won a contest.


You mean Jakyl25?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 1/28/2010 1:33:05 PM | message detail
Quick, Frog vs. Mewtwo, who you got?

My bias is still giving me Frog
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