GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 805

bloodhawks return | Posted 1/27/2010 11:34:51 PM | message detail
Bracket votes are going to be what, .02%? That won't have an effect. I think Neku will pull out a miracle victory somehow.
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Keeping this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. 7/7/07
Yay!!!...Ancient Go Yankees!!!
Sonic_Factor | Posted 1/27/2010 11:42:51 PM | message detail
I don't think many know who either are. Laharl has a better pic imo, and I'd imagine more know about disgaea.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 11:44:23 PM | message detail

From: bloodhawks return | #051
Bracket votes are going to be what, .02%? That won't have an effect. I think Neku will pull out a miracle victory somehow.


for two characters nobody knows, bracket votes may make the difference. And hell, even if most 1st round matches, i'd say brackets are at least a couple %
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
bloodhawks return | Posted 1/27/2010 11:44:24 PM | message detail
I think the pic is the one thing Neku has going for him, I do not like Laharl's pick at all.
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Keeping this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. 7/7/07
Yay!!!...Ancient Go Yankees!!!
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 1/27/2010 11:49:29 PM | message detail
Neku's got this in the bag, considering his poll occurs one day after Sora's.
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Looks like Fastfalcon gave us some Falcon PUNCH!
bloodhawks return | Posted 1/27/2010 11:50:13 PM | message detail
hmm, I figured there are at most 500 people who care about their brackets enough to influence their vote. That would be perhaps 3/4ths of a percent in a day match, if all bracket voters were to have the same pick. In a close match like this, its probably around 60/40 for one character at best, so bracket voting would hardly influrence it one way or another.

Of course this is me completely guessing, I've never heard anyone elses opinion on bracket voting.
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Keeping this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. 7/7/07
Yay!!!...Ancient Go Yankees!!!
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 1/27/2010 11:58:13 PM | message detail
Man, Zelda usually gets killed in the Philippines, but this is just crazy.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3754&region=PH
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KrahenProphet and Nintendo cleaned me out in the Guru Contest.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/27/2010 11:58:16 PM | message detail
hmm, I figured there are at most 500 people who care about their brackets enough to influence their vote. That would be perhaps 3/4ths of a percent in a day match, if all bracket voters were to have the same pick. In a close match like this, its probably around 60/40 for one character at best, so bracket voting would hardly influrence it one way or another.

In a match with characters people care about, sure, bracket voting is going to be a very small group, but when you have two really obscure characters, you're going to get a bunch of people unaware of both. If they have brackets, they may as well vote for who they chose to win the match.
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For your health.
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bloodhawks return | Posted 1/28/2010 12:03:08 AM | message detail
I suppose your right, if there are...5000 bracket voters, say, even at a 55-45 % bracket percentage, thats 500 extra votes for (I assume) Laharl, which could easily be the difference in a match like this.

Interesting, I've never thought about this before.
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Keeping this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. 7/7/07
Yay!!!...Ancient Go Yankees!!!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 12:04:59 AM | message detail
Laharl probably has 66% or so bracket support. It's what Vyse had in 2004, pretty much entirely for being the higher seed.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/28/2010 12:13:03 AM | message detail
Higher seed + Laharl has been in a bunch of these contests compared to only 1 before this year for Neku, so people might recognize his name more and take him solely based on that and bracket vote him.
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/28/2010 12:32:19 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/28/2010 3:13:03 AM | #061
Higher seed + Laharl has been in a bunch of these contests compared to only 1 before this year for Neku, so people might recognize his name more and take him solely based on that and bracket vote him.


I can buy this, because people have shown to be smarter voters, as yoblazer said.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 12:33:10 AM | message detail
Or just lazy voters. "Who are these guys? *picks top option*"

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/28/2010 3:37:47 AM | message detail
MATCH PiC PEOPLE

make something with these

http://www.mariowiki.com/Image:PeachYakuman.gif
http://www.mariowiki.com/Image:MarioYakuman.gif
http://www.mariowiki.com/Image:LuigiYakuman.gif
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, KrahenProphet
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/28/2010 4:20:15 AM | message detail
Catching up on what I've missed:

So it seems that Master Chief/Spy joins Donkey Kong/Bub as a match where the winner failed to double his opponent despite having over 90% of the brackets supporting him. If Valve is really going to rally all its characters like this, then...watch out Roxas and Peach!

It also seems that Mewtwo/Midna are underrated by '08 stats or something. Both of them have kinda overperformed this contest, but I don't know what to make of it.
CCatalyst | Posted 1/28/2010 4:21:05 AM | message detail
So Midna vs. Liquid Snake? Who wins and by how much?
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I am the master of my destiny; I am the captain of my soul.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 5:23:00 AM | message detail
Match XXVI: (8) Laharl vs. (9) Neku Sakuraba

Information

Name: Laharl
Game/Series: Disgaea
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 1

Name: Neku Sakuraba
Game/Series: The World Ends With You
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 1

Analysis

While it is common to see matches with two fodder characters, this match takes that to a whole new level. Laharl has a reputation of being one of the weakest characters to return to the contest year after year. Unless Neku wins this match with ease the winner of this match will probably be the weakest character to have reached the second round and that’s with characters like Ratchet and Isaac having a good chance at advancing.

Despite this match not getting a lot of talk there isn’t really a favourite going into the match. Laharl getting 24% on Dante and Neku getting 22% on Ganondorf are both comparable, though as some people said when both characters are this weak other factors begin to be noticeable. Everything from picture to poll position is being used as a factor to determine which character gets the reward of being killed by Sora next round.

Both Disgaea and TWEWY are cult games, I bet less than 50% of the voters know either game. The idea that when given an option of two random things a person usually votes for the top option is being thrown around. The problem is that would only work if there was no picture. I feel that the picture would be a larger factor since people can look at it and vote for whichever option looks cooler. The top option would only make a difference to the people who are bracket voting since there wasn’t a picture.

Just a few days ago Laharl probably got his best argument, Prinny’s performance. I know that Prinny is a new character, but that was an impressive performance and I would be pretty shocked if Laharl wasn’t at least close to Prinny. Maybe Ike was overrated, but this is one thing that Laharl has over Neku in this pathetic match.

After a lot of thinking I’ve decided to go against my bracket and support Laharl in my prediction. Something about that Prinny match doesn’t sit right, but Laharl does seem to have the slight factors going towards him. I’m still split about the match and this way no matter what happens I’ll be right, or wrong depending on how you look at it.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Neku Sakuraba > Laharl

charmander6000’s Prediction: Laharl wins, 50.73% - 49.23%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 18/24 - Today's Winners: Sora and Neku
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/28/2010 5:44:15 AM | message detail
Weakest character in this contest to move on for sure, but most certainly not the weakest character ever to win a match.

It still makes me sick to think someone so weak managed to outseed THREE Noble Niners in his division, especially considering that Sephiroth was one of them.
FFDragon | Posted 1/28/2010 5:46:22 AM | message detail
Serious Sam won a match.

Serious Sam.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/28/2010 6:01:29 AM | message detail
Never mind the sheer fact that he won a match; he outseeded Sephiroth in his own division!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 6:04:05 AM | message detail
Survey taken from B8 says:

Who do you have?
Laharl:29
Neku: 11

Who do you think actually wins?
Laharl: 26
Neku: 12
Dunno: 4

Who are you voting for?
Laharl: 27
Neku: 14

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 6:06:52 AM | message detail
Oh, and almost everyone either answered to Laharl for all three or Neku for all three...which probably means bracket votes are going to play a decent part in this.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/28/2010 6:19:59 AM | message detail
Bracket voting will be much more numerous on the board. If Laharl doesn't start off with the lead Neku probably has it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 18/24 - Today's Winners: Sora and Neku
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/28/2010 6:51:17 AM | message detail
I'm probably just not going to vote at all. I don't care about either character. I played each game briefly, didn't really like either (TWEWY didn't appeal to me at all, and while I like SRPGs Disgaea seems way too much of a grind for me to enjoy), and don't really like the characters.

I don't even know if I can care enough to bracket vote.
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Not Wylvane
vcharon | Posted 1/28/2010 7:02:36 AM | message detail
So, lowest day votals so far upcoming?
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 7:31:20 AM | message detail
I love both game they are featured in so much and as leads i found both to be great, grrr, who to vote for, If i like em equally I guess i should just bracket vote, but is that really a good enough reason?
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Shakes Fist!
Jmast7 | Posted 1/28/2010 7:43:54 AM | message detail
Neku vs. Laharl was one of the few "favorite" pics I made in my bracket - TWEWY gave me many hours of entertainment on my commute and I'd love to see Neku get a contest win, especially since it's probably the only shot he's ever going to get. :-)
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hellfire104 | Posted 1/28/2010 7:52:14 AM | message detail
Neku HAS TO WIN. I am on a 19 match win streak! The gods of the contest would NEVER strip me from my glory of hitting 20! <.<
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Point Total: 22/24
My Bracket Says: Night: Sora Day: Neku Sakuraba
voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 7:52:24 AM | message detail
if next year neku lands guybrush then he's bound to win.
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Shakes Fist!
Master Moltar | Posted 1/28/2010 8:21:47 AM | message detail
Heart Division: Round 1 - Match 26 – (8) Laharl vs. (9) Neku Sakuraba

Moltar’s Analysis

Laharl
Lahurl

Neku
“Just leave me alone already”.

The only debatable R1 match in this division is this battle of who sucks less. Auuuuuuuuuuuuuugh. Seriously, every match Laharl has sucks ass. Dude lost to Vyse, dude lost to a Block, dude lost to a WoW joke. Now he’s got another weak guy to probably lose to. I don’t trust Neku to be strong at all, but you don’t have to be strong to be Laharl. You just have to show up.

Well, since you unfortunately have to pick a winner here, I guess I’ll go with not-Laharl. Going off Neku’s one match, you get 22% on Ganon and low-midcarders vs. 25% on Dante and fodder…yeah we’re looking at some powerhouses here. Neku did have the stronger group though, so I have to give him some credit.

You know what I don’t even care anymore. I picked Neku because this is pretty much even on paper and I like his game more. That’s it. Next match plz.

Moltar’s Bracket: Neku > Laharl

Moltar’s Prediction: Laharl: 49% - Neku: 51%



Lopen’s Analysis

As you can see from the pic, Laharl just pissed Neku off with a snide comment. Leonhart said Laharl dissed Linkin Park I think that makes some sense.

Anyway assumin the Linkin Park fans don't come out in droves, I'm gettin Vyse/Laharl vibes from this match. I think most people are. Two fairly obscure games, 8v9 seed match, and the 8 has been seen in the contest more. But now Laharl is the master, the circle is now complete, and he'll be trouncing Neku.

*puts on sunglasses* The more things change... the more they stay the same.

*takes sunglasses off* Oh I did that bit already? In all seriousness though, slight differences exist in the match. Pretty sure TWEWY is bigger than Disgaea was back then, and Neku probably has a better pic (OMG IS THAT SORA!?) than Laharl did back then-- but now Laharl has a better performance under his belt than Vyse ever did (almost beating Ramza) and he's also got the backing of a series. So while I think the match will end up similar, I think this is a more potent powder keg than the last time we saw a match like this. Not that it matters cause Sora's gonna stomp the winner, but said winner might end up looking not terrible. Now let me get back to what I was doing.

*puts on sunglasses* The more things change... the more they stay the same.

Lopen's Prediction:
Laharl with 60.23%



Transience’s Analysis

Laharl is more established and Disgaea's a bit more of a franchise than TWEWY is; Neku is from s Square game, is more recent and is better during the daytime. Laharl is more liked within his fanbase than Neku is, but that fanbase is probably smaller. Neku is from a handheld RPG and those guys never do very well.

That's my basic thought process for this match. Prinny doing well and Disgaea doing fairly well in last year's contest leads me to believe that Laharl is somewhat safe here. I'd feel a hell of a lot better if this were a 24 hour match though because Disgaea is a night beast. I think Disgaea fans are like PW fans though, they visit the site all the damn time and just happen to get their votes in early. They'll vote for him in the daytime today.

transience's prediction: Laharl with 56.32%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Fantastical writeup coming soon!

Ngamer Says: Neku with 50.01%
Master Moltar | Posted 1/28/2010 8:23:25 AM | message detail
Kleenex’s Analysis

God, what an awful match. The fact that one of these two scrubs is actually going to be allowed to advance to round 2 over some of the characters that are going to be eliminated is insulting. I mean, neither of their performances last round really inspire confidence in either of them, what with Laharl losing to Hogger and Neku losing convincingly to KOS-MOS.

Thinking about it now, Neku's performance is probably a little but more impressive (using the term loosely) and a day match should probably favor him more than Laharl. Hmm, I'm starting to doubt my bracket as I'm writing this. Logic would dictate that Disgaea is the more well-established series, but Laharl's only the main character of the first one.

Yikes. I think I'm going to stick with my bracket here and say Laharl, but I don't feel comfortable about it at all. Augh, why does this match even exist.


Bracket: Laharl
Favorites: Neku
Prediction: Laharl with 52.24%



Red Sox’s Analysis

This is a highly debatable match between 2 fodder characters. Laharl put up 25% on Yoshi back in 2005, and Neku finished last against Ganondorf, Frog, and KOS-MOS last year, just managing to escape a doubling from Frog. In other words, both of these characters are fodder, and not even high fodder. While the match is highly debatable, there’s not much to say here, because I don’t put much faith in any of the stats that could compare these characters. Intuition doesn’t tell me anything either- it’s 2 obscure JRPG fodder characters. To me, it’s about as close to a toss-up as you can get.

Prediction: Laharl with 50.01%
Upset Potential: 50%
Upper Bound: Laharl with 58%
Lower Bound: Neku with 58%



Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato

What a match. This is probably both character’s only chances to ever get put in a winnable position. It would be a lot easier to call if our board hadn’t been stupid enough to remove TWEWY in the Games Contest for Street “Lose To Persona” Fighter IV, but oh well.

In 2k8, Laharl scored 24.66% against Dante. Neku scored 22.05% against Ganondorf. I would take Dante to beat Ganondorf these days, but who knows? Neku’s score is hurt a bit by the first hour without a pic, but Laharl was probably hurt more by 1. Strategy RPG LFF with Ramza 2. Ramza and Hogger being rallied like crazy during that match. Then you look at their resume:

Games Laharl stars in:
Disgaea: Hour of Darkness (PS2)
Disgaea: Afternoon of Darkness (PSP)
Disgaea DS
Games Laharl cameos in:
Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories (PS2)
Disgaea 2: Dark Hero Days (PSP)
Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice (PS3)

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Games Neku Stars in:
The World Ends With You (DS)

Yeah. Laharl has all the intangibles going into this match, and really, that’s probably all he needs to win comfortably.

Prediction: Laharl with 58%


Crew Consensus: Neku has some support but Laharl is the favorite
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/28/2010 8:33:24 AM | message detail
You know what I don’t even care anymore. I picked Neku because this is pretty much even on paper and I like his game more. That’s it. Next match plz.

Guess that's what two scrubs being in teh same match does to ya. At any rate, I only have one word: Next!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:34:34 AM | message detail
Best match ever

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/28/2010 8:35:42 AM | message detail
I'd definetely take Dante to beat Ganondorf now. But this is based mostly off of Ganon bombing last contest, which is caused by going from 39% on Samus to being doubled by her when there was absolutely no reason for it to happen. Still, though, Dante has looked better about 3 years in a row, so I think Laharl will win, especially on principle of "two characters that nobody cares about, so people will simply vote for the first option in the poll if it happens."
hellfire104 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:38:09 AM | message detail
sounds like nobody really knows.
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Point Total: 22/24
My Bracket Says: Night: Sora Day: Neku Sakuraba
Kotetsu534 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:38:48 AM | message detail
Hey at least this match could be interesting unlike the three before it (well, the fact that all three of Sora, Ryu and MC failed to impress was sort've entertaining, but I think I'd prefer a close match), and we've got Kefka/Arthas to look forward to after it!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/28/2010 8:40:23 AM | message detail
Laharl the Crew favorite? Sounds like Neku's got this one!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 1/28/2010 8:40:24 AM | message detail

From: hellfire104 | #078
Neku HAS TO WIN. I am on a 19 match win streak! The gods of the contest would NEVER strip me from my glory of hitting 20! <.<


Sorry, friend but my 17 match win streak is far more important to the contest gods. =) Laharl 55-44.
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 1/28/2010 8:40:56 AM | message detail
I'm not even going to fix that numerical error. This match will be so unpopular that it won't even make sense mathematically.
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
http://i50.tinypic.com/ohsr5j.jpg
vcharon | Posted 1/28/2010 8:41:01 AM | message detail
Crew Curse comin
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:41:41 AM | message detail
Crew curse in this case just means that Laharl scores 70%+!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:05 AM | message detail
Also did Street Fighter IV seriously lose to ****ing Persona 4?!?!?!?!

WHY DID YOU PICK RYU > DANTE, EXTHA?! WHYYYYYY?!
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"I learned in England not to deceive the referees" - Cristiano Ronaldo
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:09 AM | message detail
tch, my 8 match winning streak means far more.
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Shakes Fist!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:18 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #091
Crew curse in this case just means that Laharl scores 70%+!


...That doesn't even make sense. You know how the Crew Curse works! Don't try to twist it around!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:26 AM | message detail
Serious question for people who took Laharl.

Which would be the worse feeling, losing a point to Neku, or losing a point because you picked Laharl?

Same question except opposite if you picked Neku.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:33 AM | message detail
Also did Street Fighter IV seriously lose to ****ing Persona 4?

no
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voltch | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:38 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #085
Also did Street Fighter IV seriously lose to ****ing Persona 4?!?!?!?!

WHY DID YOU PICK RYU > DANTE, EXTHA?! WHYYYYYY?!


SFIV WON BY 7 FREAKING VOTES!!!!!
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Shakes Fist!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:42:52 AM | message detail
I don't care about the point. I just want Laharl to win.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/28/2010 8:43:08 AM | message detail
It might as well have.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
vcharon | Posted 1/28/2010 8:43:12 AM | message detail
I can get on the leaderboard if Neku does manage to win (probably anyway). Laharl also cameos in Phantom Brave by the way (big boost there!).
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