GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 804

KamikazePotato | Posted 1/27/2010 4:28:33 PM | message detail
Arthas could lay a turn and that turd would score 55%+ on Kefka. That's just how Kefka rolls.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 4:28:37 PM | message detail
Well of course. The argument against Kefka's an obvious one. But I just see Kefka constant flirting with weaker opponents. Figure one of these days the narrow loss is gonna be a narrow win.
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CCatalyst | Posted 1/27/2010 4:32:54 PM | message detail
Based on what?

Snake > Seph is much more logical and statistically possible then Ezio > Zelda.


Based on what? Lol. Ezio's past performances?

As I've been saying the whole time, my entire situation is hypothetical. But, I still think it's right.

Altair will beat Vivi, and Ezio will beat Zelda. I'm actually kicking myself right now because Altair very well could beat Kirby (I think Sonic is out of his reach right now.) Meanwhile Ezio is going to have a...semi-competitive match with Samus?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/27/2010 4:34:48 PM | message detail
Ok now you're going too far. Zelda is one thing; Samus is another.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 1/27/2010 4:35:16 PM | message detail
A rally on 4chan? Even taking all of Battletoads' "rallied" votes (and I have to believe they care about it more), I'm not seeing it. This is tap-dancin' Master Chief we're talking about here. Spy was taking a chunk out of him from the get-go.

Not really seeing the votal argument against Hayabusa, either. Samus has put up some pretty pitiful votals in her time, too, and look where that gets her (hey design votes). If you want something to bash him for, bash him for letting Crash tearass into him all night and morning long. He has to hope a DSV/ASV/SNV match would go better for him for next round.
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CCatalyst | Posted 1/27/2010 4:36:12 PM | message detail
Alright, anyway, I have a couple other matches I'm curious about.

Phoenix vs. Jecht

Laharl vs. Midna

Aeris vs. Auron

What are Aeris' chances against Auron in this match? Probably slim to none, right? I have Phoenix beating Jecht and losing to Ratchet (why, I don't know.) I also have Laharl > Midna.

Oh, and Lloyd vs. Fox, who do you have there?
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my destiny; I am the captain of my soul.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/27/2010 4:36:50 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3753&type=1&seconds=60&max=0

This clearly isn't suspicious at all

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/27/2010 4:37:08 PM | message detail
Midna is beating Sora?
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Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/27/2010 4:37:10 PM | message detail
W...why do you have Midna beating Sora?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
CCatalyst | Posted 1/27/2010 4:37:37 PM | message detail
Ok now you're going too far. Zelda is one thing; Samus is another.

That's why I paused. Although, tbqh if Ezio beats Zelda by a fair margin, and we take the female bracket at face value, he could put up a fight against Samus. But like I said, the female bracket was a joke, and I think Zelda way over-performed. I don't think Ezio has a chance at Samus unless she gets the suitless pic.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my destiny; I am the captain of my soul.
CCatalyst | Posted 1/27/2010 4:38:48 PM | message detail
Oh lol. I meant that other character, I was just looking at future polls I didn't mean Midna. I meant whoever Laharl is facing first round.,
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my destiny; I am the captain of my soul.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/27/2010 4:39:31 PM | message detail
But yeah, the general consensus so far was that this match was about expected for Chief if you factor out the 1-2% Spy rallying cost him, and enough to handily beat Hayabusa.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/27/2010 4:44:19 PM | message detail
Check out Spy go!

I still consider Chief the favorite next round, but at least he's mucking things up enough for me to not lose all faith in Hayabusa.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 1/27/2010 4:47:54 PM | message detail
After managing to miss three matches in a row by over 10 points in my oracle (while getting the winner right) I'm gonna be within 2-3 points today. Yay for rallying.

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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 4:48:36 PM | message detail
Spy got a good combo though, popular for this kind of rally and with MC anti-votes, I don't think people will care enough about having MC lose to Ryu.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/27/2010 4:49:48 PM | message detail

From: voltch | #215
Spy got a good combo though, popular for this kind of rally and with MC anti-votes, I don't think people will care enough about having MC lose to Ryu.


If MC is within striking distance of the choke, they'll care about him losing to anyone. I'm still kinda surprised DK ****ed it up in 2005, but then again, DK is the master.
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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 4:50:42 PM | message detail
yeah, how do we manage to get it to striking distance though?
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Shakes Fist!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/27/2010 4:51:58 PM | message detail
I don't think Hayabusa can't capitalize nearly as well as Spy can. Spy has his own collection of memes, for one.


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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/27/2010 4:53:33 PM | message detail

From: voltch | #217
yeah, how do we manage to get it to striking distance though?


That's up to Hayabusa being about as strong as Chief. Not impossible by any means, but like I said, Chief is the favorite now. I expected Spy to impress (even more than this), but I also expected Ryu to go in as the favorite after a great performance against Crash. Latter didn't happen.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/27/2010 4:56:00 PM | message detail
Damn... Chief might not even have 60% on Spy by the time all is said and done.
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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 4:57:42 PM | message detail
Ninja Gaiden 3 announced on the day of the match!
But I never know where to place Ryu,none of his matches made me go wow, recently.
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Shakes Fist!
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/27/2010 5:29:55 PM | message detail
Man, even giving Chief a percent or two or more, this is going to end up as a pretty sucky performance. Spy could finish breaking 40% here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 5:32:41 PM | message detail
I don't think 4chan will care about rallying another xbox character over chief.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/27/2010 5:36:06 PM | message detail
tag
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/27/2010 5:37:14 PM | message detail
He probably will. My Oracle would be 55% Zelda.

Exactly what I'm thinking. And considering the #1 person in the Oracle has a match average score of 44.64 right now, you don't want to call the average 55-45 match a lock.
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Master Moltar | Posted 1/27/2010 5:39:29 PM | message detail
xfd scary Chief ASV, huh?

woo rallies

Chief's still got this next round. Letting Crash get 38% on you is worse than this
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Ryu H. > Crash (20/22)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 5:40:33 PM | message detail
the funny thing is, even with all these massive spy rallies, Chief still finishes above the majority of the crews % prediction.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/27/2010 5:41:35 PM | message detail
Hmmm... a lot has happened in this topic, based on the vote totals this match is over 1000 ahead of its pace before the ASV begun.

Next match. Midna impresses by approaching/breaking 40% while nobody cares if Laharl/Neku wins.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 16/22 - Today's Winners: Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/27/2010 5:41:35 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/27/2010 8:32:41 PM | #223
I don't think 4chan will care about rallying another xbox character over chief.


BUT THERE IS NO XBOX HIERARCHY lolololo

Chief could double Ryu.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/27/2010 5:42:40 PM | message detail
Spy is not beating Hayabusa.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 16/22 - Today's Winners: Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief
voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 5:45:20 PM | message detail
Is Hierarchy the new argument to end all arguments?

hmm, fans votng in the poll will go crazy, hmm I like both of these characters, and their games have been enojyable on my 360, but I will vote for MC because Halo is higher placed in the hierarchy.
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Who's been pushing this? At least the euro vote makes sense.
General_Zimbad | Posted 1/27/2010 5:45:39 PM | message detail
Just voted for spy, though I do prefer heavy.

I'M COMING FOR YOU!!!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/27/2010 5:45:45 PM | message detail
Both guys had pretty sucky performances today :/
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/27/2010 5:53:11 PM | message detail
Both guys had pretty sucky performances today :/

Indeed. Ryu let Crash break 38% on him, and Chief is likely to have Spy break 40% on him.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 5:53:44 PM | message detail
I had both of these guys breaking 75%

Lopen is a very sad camper.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 1/27/2010 5:54:37 PM | message detail
How did Crash do during the night in the past?
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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 5:56:31 PM | message detail
MC, only Day matches and could've taken out megaman, well not anymore.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/27/2010 5:57:06 PM | message detail
In 2007 he was cutting Phoenix/Bomberman in the day, but in 2008 he did his rising at night. I think he's pretty average thoughout the whole match and depends on his opponents.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 16/22 - Today's Winners: Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief
Master Moltar | Posted 1/27/2010 6:00:59 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #227
the funny thing is, even with all these massive spy rallies, Chief still finishes above the majority of the crews % prediction.


I had him in the mid-60's until I realized this was Master Chief and lowballed him.

So yeah he's surpassing my lowered expectations by .3%

I mean in my eyes, Ryu easily had the worst performance, but this is nothing great for Chief here
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Ryu H. > Crash (20/22)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/27/2010 6:05:29 PM | message detail
hayabusa probably would have slightly done better if he had the day to work with maybe. wasn't he doubling in NA?
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/27/2010 6:29:00 PM | message detail
He was doubling in North America meaning that he probably would have won the match with almost 65%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 16/22 - Today's Winners: Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 7:30:37 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how people can twist this match into looking good for Chief simply because Spy is getting rally votes. Even if Spy isn't getting rallied at all, Chief did squat with the ASV. Do you really think Chief starts churning out 65%+ during the ASV if you throw out Spy's rallied votes?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/27/2010 7:45:03 PM | message detail
This match isn't good. It's just not as bad as Hayabusa's.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
ZFS | Posted 1/27/2010 7:47:11 PM | message detail
This is a pretty sorry showing for Chief no matter how you slice it. 60% on Spy honestly doesn't strike me as a whole lot better than Hayabusa's 63% on Crash. Chief should still be a favorite heading into that match, but he's not looking great heading in.

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ZFS | Posted 1/27/2010 7:48:20 PM | message detail
62%, rather.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/27/2010 7:59:43 PM | message detail
This is a pretty sorry showing for Chief no matter how you slice it. 60% on Spy honestly doesn't strike me as a whole lot better than Hayabusa's 63% on Crash. Chief should still be a favorite heading into that match, but he's not looking great heading in.

Agreed. And not only that, he also did squat during what should be his best time.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 8:07:57 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #242
I'm not sure how people can twist this match into looking good for Chief simply because Spy is getting rally votes. Even if Spy isn't getting rallied at all, Chief did squat with the ASV. Do you really think Chief starts churning out 65%+ during the ASV if you throw out Spy's rallied votes?


Its not a good performance by Chief... but luckily for him, Ryu laid a bomb as well. It'll just be about who is more pathetic, and Ryu looked more pathetic from the matches today.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/27/2010 8:09:32 PM | message detail
Match XXV: (1) Sora vs. (16) Midna

Information

Name: Sora
Game/Series: Kingdom Hearts
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 3

Name: Midna
Game/Series: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 2

Analysis

Moving on to the Heart Division we have the second division where the winner is not set into stone. In fact this is probably the most competitive division with at least five characters getting some support from the board. Sora may be the favourite to win it, but this division does have some serious competition waiting for him to look bad in his first two matches.

Interestingly enough both characters shared an opponent last contest, though with that character being Cloud it is a bit unfair to compare the two. On the other side I think people are expecting rather too much of Sora in this match. I’ve seen predictions from the high 60s to the low 70s and considering Cloud was only able to get 75% on her it appears that some people think Sora is at Noble Nine levels.

I think the reason for the overestimation was Midna’s performance in 2007. It was pretty bad and maybe that sticks out more. However in 2008 Midna was able to boost due to higher sales of her game, something that is common to all newly created characters and actually gave Mewtwo a fight for his life. Some people may argue for some weird RPG SFF with Mewtwo and that Midna was overrated because Cloud was the obvious first place, but she was still able to almost reach 24% which suggests that she’s likely around there.

Ganondorf/Mewtwo in my opinion is a good place to use as a comparison as they are close in strength relative to Sora and Midna. Sora has gained a bit more exposure over the previous year so I wouldn’t be surprised if he outdid Ganondorf. Overall don’t be surprised about Sora’s performance, especially since the match will be at night.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sora > Midna

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sora wins, 59.82% - 40.18%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 16/22 - Today's Winners: Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 8:10:46 PM | message detail
That reminds me, Midna has to be the strongest 16th seed. Kinda sad theres top 4/5 seeds weaker then her.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/27/2010 8:15:14 PM | message detail
Probably though Marth and Lightning may not be that far off.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 16/22 - Today's Winners: Ryu Hayabusa and Master Chief