GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 804

voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 2:52:24 PM | message detail
if an expanded 11 gets made, then wuuut.
but Ezio beatig zelda?
really, say that after his match at the very least.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/27/2010 2:55:30 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:50:18 PM | #099
Cutler ain't my BOI, Kornulti. Just 'cause he played football in the state of Tennessee don't mean he's my BOI! But I do think it's funny that someone would rather go work for Cable and Jamarcus Russell than Lovie and Cutler. What does this say about your franchise?

Granted, I liked him when he played at Vandy, but that was before I knew anything about him as a person.


Want to hear a true story? (Or at least as true as you want to believe)

Went to my best friend's house during that blizzard before Christmas, met a guy that went to Vanderbilt. He and his girlfriend went to a bar there, Cutler and his linemen walk in. Cutler slaps this guy's girlfriend's butt, my friend gets in his face and forces him to apologize.

Cutler tries hiding behind his lineman, unaware his linemen all hate him. They push him at my friend and watch as Cutler gets his ass totally kicked. It's the wallpaper on my friend's Blackberry. I was skeptical at first, but unless Jay Cutler has a twin, the story is definitely true.

Cutler is such a jackass that his own teammates won't get his back. If you ever wonder why he never gets offensive line protection, there's your reason.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/27/2010 2:56:37 PM | message detail
Duke Nukem put up 39.55% on Zack last year, who just beat Yuna worse than Zelda did. Altair broke 49% on Duke. A boost that enables you to 60-40 yourself is not unprecedented. Large, but not unprecedented, and Altair's got plenty of reason to boost. It's unwise to discount Ezio's chances entirely against Zelda.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 2:57:37 PM | message detail
I would also call it unwise to assume Altair = Ezio le de France de Tourtille
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FFDragon | Posted 1/27/2010 2:57:54 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:37:55 PM | #085
Link to that entry.


I would if ED wasn't a banned site here. So I'll just give the end.

.com/Drp1zza
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 2:58:03 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Looks like Spy's getting back to normal. Only three of those updates were out of the ordinary.
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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 2:58:18 PM | message detail
But we're mostly basing the boost on the fact that he looks like altair, I dunno, Big Boss impressed sure, but he's still no Solid Snake, so i'm thinking altair/ezio works on the same line, but if ezio proves to be stronger, then i'll worry.
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Childproof | Posted 1/27/2010 2:58:48 PM | message detail
So... who does better on Mega Man?

Cid or Chief?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 2:58:52 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #103
Duke Nukem put up 39.55% on Zack last year, who just beat Yuna worse than Zelda did. Altair broke 49% on Duke. A boost that enables you to 60-40 yourself is not unprecedented. Large, but not unprecedented, and Altair's got plenty of reason to boost. It's unwise to discount Ezio's chances entirely against Zelda.


Do we have precedent for a 60/40 boost from a game you're not in?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 1/27/2010 2:59:14 PM | message detail
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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 2:59:56 PM | message detail
More like baseless guesswork.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 3:02:54 PM | message detail
Huh, we've already got as many votes halfway through this match as Hayabusa/Crash got in 12 hours.

Well done, 4chan. Well done.
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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 3:04:14 PM | message detail
that just makes ryu look pathetic, how on eath didn't that match break at least 50k?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/27/2010 3:06:06 PM | message detail
Well in all likelihood Zelda will win, and probably comfortably at that. But this is not the biggest lock in the world. This isn't Link/Tanner.

I'm not going to go through this ridiculous Altair/Liquid argument again- Soul, what you are doing is circular reasoning, starting by assuming that Altair can't be at Zelda's level, and then using that to say that something must have happened to render Altair/Liquid/Luigi invalid, and then concluding that the stats are bad. You might as well just say that Zelda wins because it's freaking Zelda, and leave it at that.

Do we have precedent for a 60/40 boost from a game you're not in?

No, but 2006 (TP-hype) Zelda is probably stronger than 2010 Zelda by a fair amount.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/27/2010 3:06:30 PM | message detail
Man... The match with the least votals followed by the match where Chief one-ups Hayabusa in terms of phailing to do well, in one day...
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irriadin | Posted 1/27/2010 3:07:33 PM | message detail
Zelda vs Ezio is such a foregone conclusion to me, I'm surprised there's even debate about it. I mean, on name recognition alone, Zelda is going to annihilate Ezio. Ezio isn't exactly a household name, and people aren't even going to automatically know it's the guy from Assassin's Creed II, whereas Zelda benefits from having a name as synonymous with gaming as Mario.
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voltch | Posted 1/27/2010 3:09:28 PM | message detail
That argument doesn't always work though, you'll always find an exception, heck sonic is a gaming icon on par with mario(ok maybe no quite), but Squall or vincent who are probably unknown to the general public, will still have a very good chance of embarassing sonic on this site.
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3rdTimesDeCharm | Posted 1/27/2010 3:11:37 PM | message detail
match pics = arthas win confirmed
also liking neku and bowser, sora is a gimme right?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:13:10 PM | message detail
why is chief losing the asv
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/27/2010 3:13:25 PM | message detail
I'm disappointed in Arthas's picture, but Kefka's is awful.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 3:13:57 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #119
why is chief losing the asv


4chan is rallying for Spy.

But I doubt he's doing THAT much better without it. Either way, this is going to turn out to be a pretty sad performance for the Chief.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:14:50 PM | message detail
ugh no lich king helmet pic for arthas?
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Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 3:16:05 PM | message detail
Kefka's picture isn't that bad. Beats Bath Towel and Lettuce.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/27/2010 3:16:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, but it's not any better than his clown pics from FF Anthology. Heck, it might be worse.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:16:51 PM | message detail
Wait people think Kefkas pic is bad? Its the best he could get.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 1/27/2010 3:17:07 PM | message detail
Honestly, I'd say that's about as good as Kefka can hope for.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 1/27/2010 3:19:55 PM | message detail
This is easily the best you could hope for with Kefka, alright? Its KEFKA damnit.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/27/2010 3:20:53 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | Posted: 1/27/2010 6:19:55 PM | #127
This is easily the best you could hope for with Kefka, alright? Its KEFKA damnit.


http://dissidia.rhapsodos.org/images/art/exmode/kefka.png
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:21:53 PM | message detail
I mean, he could be half naked with a towel, look like a patch of lettuce, look like a reject angel with purple skin, or worse

This at least looks as close to Kefka as you'll get for a full body pic round.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 1/27/2010 3:22:24 PM | message detail
I'm not going to go through this ridiculous Altair/Liquid argument again- Soul, what you are doing is circular reasoning, starting by assuming that Altair can't be at Zelda's level, and then using that to say that something must have happened to render Altair/Liquid/Luigi invalid, and then concluding that the stats are bad. You might as well just say that Zelda wins because it's freaking Zelda, and leave it at that.

I've said countless of times weeks ago that Liquid's first round match against Luigi last contest was a huge fluke. After that, you can't draw anything from him because of all of the LFF and SFF in his following matches. I've argued that point before the Altair/Liquid match to show that Altair would win. I'm pretty sure Leon and other people in this topic were arguing the same thing. There's no circular reasoning at all here. Liquid was overrated in the stats. He got close to Luigi in round 1 probably due to MGS4 or because of the big MGS-hype this site was on.

What we do know is that Liquid is pretty weak. His showings against Lavos and Sephiroth from the Villains contest, and his showing against Alucard/Ness/Zidane proves that he is weak. Every single match before the Luigi match showed he was a low midcarder/midcarder at best. Yet just because he was able to get close to Luigi in that one match (after MGS4), you guys decide to throw away everything he's done up to that point and say that he has to be that strong.

Altair went on to crush Liquid. If you weren't so hellbent on keeping Liquid up there with Luigi and looked at his entire contest history, then you can tell that that match isn't out of the norm. Altair got a boost from AC2, but nothing too big. But for some reason, you're keeping Liquid up there and think Altair is the next noble nine breaker (obvious exaggeration btw).

This is why I don't argue with stats. In your mind, you have to make them work. 'There's no way Liquid could have one fluke match. He has to be extremely strong. The stats show this. There's no way that Altair could beat that already extremely strong Liquid by that much. He had to have boosted through the moon. There's no way that Altair could lose to Zelda of all characters, because Liquid would have a really close match with her.'

Stats mumbo jumbo. Seriously, step away from that gamefaqscontests website and look at the match. Zelda, the co-star of the biggest franchise on this site, Vs. Ezio Auditore di Firenze, star of a brand new game.
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redrocket | Posted 1/27/2010 3:23:46 PM | message detail
Kefka's current pic is real close to his in-battle sprite from the first two times you fight him.

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Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 3:24:02 PM | message detail
Yeah I'm not sure what people wanted with Kefka. Only thing that beats that is sprite Angel Kefka.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 1/27/2010 3:24:53 PM | message detail
This Ezio > Zelda talk might be the most ridiculous thing the stats topic has ever even somewhat seriously discussed. Zelda has always been a top 15-20 character. She has gotten 45%+ on Noble Niners. Who seriously thinks Ezio is going to be anywhere near that level?
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LOLContests | Posted 1/27/2010 3:26:23 PM | message detail
I don't know where you guys are getting the idea that 4chan's rallying for Spy in any noticeable capacity, but both times this has come up, I've checked and found no or very weak evidence of it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/27/2010 3:26:25 PM | message detail
I think the best argument against Ezio is that first entrants just don't beat the Zelda name. Period.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:26:31 PM | message detail
You'd think 4chan would give up being 10k down seeing its a lost cause..
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:27:22 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #134
I don't know where you guys are getting the idea that 4chan's rallying for Spy in any noticeable capacity, but both times this has come up, I've checked and found no or very weak evidence of it.


you do realize 4chan moves too fast to really find any evidence of stuff, right? I'm guessing you're not too familiar with it.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 1/27/2010 3:27:43 PM | message detail
I think the best argument against Ezio is that first entrants just don't beat the Zelda name. Period.

No, sorry, stats show Altair > Zelda.
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LOLContests | Posted 1/27/2010 3:29:09 PM | message detail
you do realize 4chan moves too fast to really find any evidence of stuff, right? I'm guessing you're not too familiar with it.

Every time that 4chan has been rallying and I've checked, there are posts with at least 100 replies responding to it. There is none of that for this, and a good amount of people saying that they're voting for the Chief. If the thread fall off of 4chan quickly, then clearly it didn't have any effect.
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Yesmar
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:30:12 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #139
you do realize 4chan moves too fast to really find any evidence of stuff, right? I'm guessing you're not too familiar with it.

Every time that 4chan has been rallying and I've checked, there are posts with at least 100 replies responding to it. There is none of that for this, and a good amount of people saying that they're voting for the Chief. If the thread fall off of 4chan quickly, then clearly it didn't have any effect.


So you believe Spy has a better ASV than Chief naturally.
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LOLContests | Posted 1/27/2010 3:31:23 PM | message detail
So you believe Spy has a better ASV than Chief naturally.

I'm saying that if someone's rallying for Spy, they're not doing it at /b/ or /v/. Or at least, not effectively.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/27/2010 3:31:30 PM | message detail
and the fact the votals are on pace to be the most for this contest yet is legit.
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CCatalyst | Posted 1/27/2010 3:37:07 PM | message detail
Stats mumbo jumbo. Seriously, step away from that gamefaqscontests website and look at the match. Zelda, the co-star of the biggest franchise on this site, Vs. Ezio Auditore di Firenze, star of a brand new game.

Well, despite the fact that games =/= their stars. Let's look at things. The site is clearly experiencing a western shift. 'WSF'. The last big Zelda game to come out was TP, in 2006 (it has since then, sold a total of 7 million including gamecube.) It's safe to say that Zelda isn't getting any stronger.

Now you take Altair and Ezio, who are coming from a new gaming franchise that has, since 2007, sold a combined 14 million over all systems (not including little spin-offs on the PSP and DS.) AC2, which just came out a mere 2 months ago, has already sold almost 6 million copies. Now this is a fresh game, made in the west, that has been acclaimed everywhere, and improved on the first game. The main character of this game has an even cooler design than the first game's character (Altair) not that the names really matter, because for the most part they are going to be recognizable due to their costume.

It's not that hard to believe that a fresh, new lead with a solid series base can beat Zelda. Especially since it's the most popular Action RPG of this generation.

Sora vs. Zelda, who do you have?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/27/2010 3:38:43 PM | message detail
It's not that hard to believe that a fresh, new lead with a solid series base can beat Zelda.

Actually it is because as far as this contest has been on, new characters really do not jump to the near-elite status.

I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been seen.
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TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 1/27/2010 3:38:44 PM | message detail
Um, "above the Bowser tier"? Bowser's results suggest that he's quite possibly the strongest Nintendo character that isn't in the Noble Nine. Okay, except for that egg he laid in CB7, getting beaten by Luigi. That was bad. Still, let's review the facts:

2002: Not in contest
2003: Beat a pair of fellow Nintendo characters in Ness and Yoshi before ending up on the losing side of a 70-30 beatdown from Cloud Strife.
2004: Scored just under 83% in an opening-round match against one of the most prolific pieces of fodder in CB history before getting another 70-30 beatdown, this time from longtime rival Mario. Well, yes, SFF can do that.
Spring 2005: Opened by more than quintupling his opponent, then got 78% in round 2 and 66% in round 3. Lost to Sephiroth in the semis, but not only did he finally break 30% against a Noble Niner (both Cloud and Mario had between 70 and 71%), he broke 40%. Against Sephiroth. Okay, perhaps this still doesn't prove it since Ganondorf came closer to Sephy in the finals, but it's still damn good.
Summer 2005: Started by taking out Street Fighter opponents, Chun-Li and then Ryu. (Ryu would fare better against Bowser when they met up again in the four-way format in 2007). In the Sweet 16, took on Kirby, another character that is often mentioned as one of Nintendo's best midcarders, and beat him by over 3500 votes--close, but still comfortable enough. Then came the coup, an Elite Eight matchup with Solid Snake, decided by a grand total of 1196 votes--the smallest margin in a 1v1 match between a Noble Niner and a non-Noble Niner (though not the closest in terms of percentage--Bowser had 49.41%, while Tifa managed 49.51% on Samus in 2006--the difference being that Snake and Bowser were dueling in the 50000s, whereas Tifa and Samus were dueling in the 70000s--the slightly larger vote margin comprising a smaller percentage of the higher total.) Um, whoa? Bowser is strong! Okay, sure, there was the Solid **** factor to deal with, but the NES sprite Snake had against Bowser was still better than that awful pic he had against Zelda that same year, and Bowser was the one that made it close.
2006: Not overly impressive in a win over Leon Kennedy, but put up 42.5 on Crono, so...
2007: Stuck in 3-way Nintendo SFF in Round 1, but no excuse for Round 2 flop against Ryu and Auron. Then again, it's not like Zelda did terribly well in the four-ways, either, although she had a better excuse (Link one year, Mario the other).
2008: Like I said, inexplicable loss to Luigi in round 2, with the vote split between the two of them allowing the rapidly-deteriorating Liquid Snake to win the four-pack.

Analysis: The poor performances in CB6 and CB7 would seem to suggest that Bowser is getting weaker, but I'd like to posit an alternate theory: the Villain Factor. It is naturally ingrained in us that the hero always wins (well, usually wins), and so heroic characters enjoy a decided advantage. Just consider the Noble Nine. There is a grand total of one villain in there, and the heroes in there are all pretty much paragons of goodness--the closest thing to an anti-hero is probably Samus. The "Villain Factor" is not all-encompassing, but it could be possible that it has a more pronounced effect during four-ways.
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CB8 record through 24 matches: 21-3
Incorrect picks: Ocelot, Wesker, Fawful
TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 1/27/2010 3:38:56 PM | message detail
(And before you say that I'm just making excuses--which I probably am--consider this: When Cloud and Sephiroth faced off 1 on 1, Sephy was able to make it close, putting up over 48% in 2003 and 44% in 2004. When the two of them have been in a poll together with other characters--the 2006 Battle Royale, and the semifinals in 2007 and 2008--Cloud SFFs Sephiroth into the ground. Heck, in four of those five polls, the raw vote difference between the two was greater than it was in their 2004 duel, the lone exception ironically being the day of Sephiroth's elimination from the Battle Royale--or perhaps not so ironically if you figure that the FFVII fanbase decided that Cloud was safe and they needed to focus on saving Sephiroth.)

And in case you haven't noticed, we're back to 1v1s now. So if it was the format that was handicapping Bowser rather than him just getting weaker, he should be strong again. Also, the timing of this contest favors Bowser. He just got his first true starring role back in October, and one month after that, he got another plum role, this time in his usual villainous capacity.
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CB8 record through 24 matches: 21-3
Incorrect picks: Ocelot, Wesker, Fawful
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/27/2010 3:40:09 PM | message detail
... What the hell.
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Achromatic | Posted 1/27/2010 3:40:29 PM | message detail
the villain factor: allowing liquid snake, the ultimate good guy, to beat bowser.

"..."
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Lopen | Posted 1/27/2010 3:42:28 PM | message detail
Liquid Snake is the good guy man this makes sense.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 1/27/2010 3:43:42 PM | message detail

It's not that hard to believe that a fresh, new lead with a solid series base can beat Zelda. Especially since it's the most popular Action RPG of this generation.


...Yes, it is. Zelda is stronger than every single new character from the last 2 generations besides Auron and possibly Sora. And those two have the benefit of being Square characters on a site that loves Square-Enix.
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Demyx is better than Axel.