GameFAQs Contests

The Spy could be anyone!

Even me.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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"Watching regs bash Ulti is like watching an ant colony revolt against a lawnmower." -Lucid Faia

Damnit, I never get to make one of these >_<
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Yeah, you lost your virginity. Just like a homeless guy staring into the window of an office building means he got a job.- Colonel Alloy

I'll post this here, too, so someone can explain it for me, or at least see where my logic is coming from (on the bet with Ulti.)

This could be the single dumbest bet I've seen on gamefaqs. Ezio is not beating Zelda. I can't even begin to imagine the crap logic behind thinking Ezio has a shot.

For the sake of this hypothetical situation, we're going to assume that Ezio = Altair in strength (which is going to be pretty much right regardless of who is slightly stronger or weaker.)

X-Stats (which you guys follow almost religiously) have Liquid Snake either slightly stronger, or slightly weaker than Zelda. We'll go ahead and average it out to mean that Liquid Snake, according to X-Stats, is roughly the same strength as Zelda.

I personally can't see Altair putting up a 60% over Zelda, but I also wouldn't put it past him.

The problem you guys have is that you refuse to believe that the match between Altair and Liquid can be taken at face value. I'll admit that Liquid probably isn't as strong as the X-Stats say he is, but I also don't believe that he's so much weaker than they say that Zelda is going to give Ezio a thrashing -- or that they are weak enough to deny Ezio/Altair a chance at being stronger than Zelda.

I'm banking on the Western Shift Factor (WSF henceforth), and the success of AC2 propelling Altair and Ezio up into the higher tier of characters.

If we take the Liquid/Altair battle at simple face value, all of a sudden you have a new potential N9Breaker (which would be great for the contest as a whole.) And Ezio would definitely be the favorite going into the Zelda match.

In stead, you guys just automatically assume that somehow Liquid is actually 10%+ weaker than we thought he was, and Ezio has no chance against Zelda.

I don't follow. Please, explain to me how there is no chance whatsoever that Ezio can win.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my destiny; I am the captain of my soul.

No.

That would be your mother!

---
The Ohio State Buckeyes
Our honor defend, we will fight to the end

The problem with Liquid is he bounces around all over the place, and is never consistent enough to any accurate reading on. One year he goes 50-50 with Frog and supposedly as strong as Solid Snake, next year he's letting Lavos break 45% on him.

If you take Liquid's best possible performance (2004) and put it up against Zelda's best (2006), Zelda still wins 60-40. It's a huge stretch to assume Altair beat Liquid's best possible performance a few days ago.
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There are two types of people: Those who love Portal, and those who haven't played it yet.

If you think Liquid is roughly as strong as he was last year and Ezio is as strong as Altair, Altair can beat Zelda and prett badly at that. It puts Altair around Squall or even higher. While Liquid falling 10+% looks pretty crazy, going from losing to Duke Nukem to beating Zelda or even reaching Squall is also a pretty crazy boost. I think people are banking more on the Liquid Snake drop since Liquid Snake in 2008 looked a lot better than he did in 2007. Liquid going back to normal sounds more reasonable than Altair almost doubling his strength over the course of a year. For what it's worth (which is probably not much), Liquid Snake didn't look so hot in the Vote-In polls either. We wrote it off as "anything can happen in a 12-way poll", but maybe there was some truth behind it. To me it doesn't feel right for Ezio to be near Zelda's level, but this wouldn't be the first time I've grossly underestimated an AC character.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Right, but the more consistent stats of Liquid put him at a high tier (possibly stronger than Zelda.) If you take the Villain contest (which was weird) and the Girl's bracket (which was also tweaked) out of the equation you have a pretty uniform performance chart for both of them, and it puts Liquid at, or around Zelda's level (depending on who's stats you use.)

But, like I said, I would put a Zelda/Liquid match at probably 54/46 for Zelda, if not closer. Why is it such a stretch to assume that Altair/Ezio actually got a huge boost (or starting strength) because of the apparent WSF, and the acclaim AC2 received.

I really don't see how it can be perceived as that far fetched when the stats back-up Altair/Ezio (assuming similar strength) > Zelda.
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Curt - PSN - CPhoenixM
I am the master of my destiny; I am the captain of my soul.

I don't think there are any stats that put Liquid above Zelda, except perhaps for the 2004 stats which were based on Frog vs. a brown blob. It's pretty obvious that Frog overperformed on Solid Snake due to the picture, and that Liquid was not really Solid's equal.

Other than that, Liquid's best performance was against Luigi last year in which he broke 45%. I take this as legitimate, and it's backed up by looking at the round 2 match- you have to split Bowser's votes something like 85-15 in favor of Luigi to even bring him back to his round 1 54.5% on Liquid. But even then, Zelda is stronger than Luigi, and Liquid may have fallen somewhat since last year.

Of course, Altair got 59% on Liquid, and Zelda isn't far ahead of Luigi, so I'm not ruling out Ezio beating Zelda, though I think it's very unlikely. As I said in the other topic, if both of you were taking this bet seriously, it's a much worse bet for Ulti than for you, because it's not worth risking a 3000+ karma account of many years against a 20 karma account if you think there's a 10% chance, or even 5% chance, of losing.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb8/cb8-25.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb8/cb8-26.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb8/cb8-27.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb8/cb8-28.jpg

My Sora!

and LOL Kefka
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Liquid's round 1 performance against Luigi last year was a fluke, by the way.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Sometimes I think Kefka could be a decent midcarder if he only had good pictures.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb8/cb8-28.jpg

And that's where Bowser's rise in the Noble Nine begins!
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http://img.imgcake.com//picture_004x1.jpg
"Viviff can back up 90% of what he says the other 10% Chuck or Bruce beat him to it."-Heza

Clearly I mean "into the Noble Nine", I just got so gosh darn excited.......
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http://img.imgcake.com//picture_004x1.jpg
"Viviff can back up 90% of what he says the other 10% Chuck or Bruce beat him to it."-Heza

I see that Chief decided to one up Hayabusa in terms of failing to do well. Good for him.

Plus there's that whole XBox hierarchy thing. Chief is obviously SFFing Spy here, and if you don't think he is, you have *clearly* never played Halo or Team Fortress 2.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

No, I really don't think Ezio vs. Zelda will be a match.

And I mean that in the most literal sense. I don't foresee Ezio making it that far. Where is this "Altair=Ezio" nonsense coming from?
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CB8 record through 24 matches: 21-3
Incorrect picks: Ocelot, Wesker, Fawful

From: RPGuy96 | #014
I see that Chief decided to one up Hayabusa in terms of failing to do well. Good for him.

Plus there's that whole XBox hierarchy thing. Chief is obviously SFFing Spy here, and if you don't think he is, you have *clearly* never played Halo or Team Fortress 2.

I've played both and you are out of your gourd.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:04:39 PM | #014
I see that Chief decided to one up Hayabusa in terms of failing to do well. Good for him.

Plus there's that whole XBox hierarchy thing. Chief is obviously SFFing Spy here, and if you don't think he is, you have *clearly* never played Halo or Team Fortress 2.

Other way around. Spy is overperforming.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
You're not a good person. You know that, right?

Hint hint: RPGuy is doing an Ulti parody

And very well at that
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

You might wish to order a sarcasm detector, KP.

Other way around. Spy is overperforming.

Clearly someone who's never played the games.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

Augh my Laharl wasn't used

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Neku/Laharl pic makes me laugh, for whatever the reason.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Probably because their conversation is going something like this

Neku: Alright! Let's do this!
Laharl: Are you kidding me?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

I like to think that Laharl said something bad about Linkin Park and Neku is emo-raging.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

XD Kefka. lmao I can rest on my Arthas pick now.
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Keeping this until Casey Mears wins his 2nd Nascar Cup race. 7/7/07
Yay!!!...Ancient Go Yankees!!!

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/4918/r1laharl3.png

What could have been

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Neku gets the kiddy vote as the kiddies are too terrified of Laharl and wet their pants
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:08:42 PM | #019
Clearly someone who's never played the games.

You should check people's Oracle picks before making bad humor attempts. Abject sarcastic failure on your part.
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I'll attract the enemy with my *human* call.... I'M SO WASTED, I'M SO WASTED!!

Clearly Ulti is someone who is unfamiliar with sarcasm and has never used it in his life. Clearly.

Anyone who thinks otherwise has never used it.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

I've always hated sarcasm. It's unfunny and unnice.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

That LeonhartFour is a Spy!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Red's so sarcastic right now.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Hint: Chief 59%. He's doing better than I thought he would, and as an anti-vote magnet against a rallied character with a decided picture advantage.

I'm still not batting an eye. Ryu H is arguably the turd of the round so far, and Chief can and will SFF him. Not nearly enough people care about Ryu.
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"How's this for a headline? 'French Fries' " -James French, Last Words

I just realized that I somehow have Kefka winning...

*facepalm*
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http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/8159/boxarts2.jpg

From: LeonhartFour | #023
I like to think that Laharl said something bad about Linkin Park and Neku is emo-raging.

This is awesome.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Ryu H is arguably the turd of the round so far

I'd argue he's not even the biggest in his division...plus there's Magus, Sonic, Knuckles, Ken, and Liquid.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:13:11 PM | #028
Clearly Ulti is someone who is unfamiliar with sarcasm and has never used it in his life. Clearly.

Anyone who thinks otherwise has never used it.

You have never played Halo, Ninja Gaiden or Team Fortress 2, and are one of the many people in the stats topic who constantly misfires with regard to how casual characters will perform. These are facts, not sarcasm. But if jabs at me help you sleep at night, have fun :D
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MUSIC CAN BE OBJECTIVELY DEFINED AND ITS QUALITY EMPIRICALLY MEASURED BY THE INEQUALITY [WHAT I LIKE > WHAT YOU LIKE]. -Jaraqua Lefty Jones

Picture advantage? I don't get it.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Spy's picture is incredible.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:17:44 PM | #035
Ryu H is arguably the turd of the round so far

I'd argue he's not even the biggest in his division...plus there's Magus, Sonic, Knuckles, Ken, and Liquid.

How did I forget Knuckles? God, that match was a joke.

Ken I can at least blame on not having a name in the match pic, rofl. Bacon used the eye dropper tool in the wrong place.
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"I want to crawl into a hole and die every time I read a lihlih post." -FFDragon

Can't wait until MC bombs again lawlz

Yeah those stats certainly predicted all his other failures.
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:>

Ulti clearly doesn't know me if he thinks I get jollies from taking jabs at him more than I get jollies from taking jabs at anyone else. Clearly. Or he clearly thinks too much of himself if he thinks I'm being serious. One of these may be clearer than the other.

He also clearly missed the post last topic where I said I own an XBox and I've played plenty of Halo.

There is way too much clarity in this topic for my own good.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

Why is that Ezio/Zelda crap here too? Seriously, talk about a closer potential match like Ezio Vs. Midna. Zelda is near noble nine, there's no way Altair is coming close to her, and Ezio is no where near Altair.
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"Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

Okay, I gotta know: who made the Bowser and Frog pictures?!? They're AMAZING!

Midna got the short end of the stick, though...

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VOTE FOR MISSINGNO.!
Characters who messed up my bracket: Shadow, Drake, Fawful, Liquid

Time for some awards for the first 3 divisions:

Hyrule Division

Star: Alucard
Failure: Magus

Chaos Division

Star: Altair
Failure: Knuckles

Mushroom Division

Star: Megaman
Failure: .....Ryu Hayabusa, but no one failed horribly here.

Star of the Contest: Altair
Runner-up: Megaman
Third: Alucard

Failure of the Contest: Magus
Runner-up: Knuckles
Third: Sonic
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Zelda is nowhere near the Noble Nine. She's Top 20.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: XxSoulxX | #042
Why is that Ezio/Zelda crap here too? Seriously, talk about a closer potential match like Ezio Vs. Midna. Zelda is near noble nine, there's no way Altair is coming close to her, and Ezio is no where near Altair.

He made an account bet with Ulti saying Ezio would beat Zelda.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

From: MarioSuperstar | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:17:53 PM | #037
Picture advantage? I don't get it.

Have you played Team Fortress 2 even once? Every single person with Ambassador Spy experience will vote for that picture, and I can guarantee a lot of people who haven't played either game followed suit. When the pic first went up, a ton of people with no experience in either game said they'd vote for Spy's picture. It's incredible.

Or hell, just go to YouTube and watch "Meet the Spy".
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
You're merely postponing the inevitable.

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/27/2010 5:21:34 PM | #046
He made an account bet with Ulti saying Ezio would beat Zelda.

Which is completely one-sided. I already said I wasn't accepting more than once. And if Zelda wins, I'm not asking him to close anything. I'm not exactly an account betting kind of guy.
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"There are no fingerprints deep under water, nothing to tie one to a crime
And if you seek vengeance, all you need are instruments of pain." -Dethklok

He made an account bet with Ulti saying Ezio would beat Zelda.

I know he did. I'm guessing he's pretty much done with Board 8 so he wanted to make a foolish bet to have an excuse to leave. But seriously, don't we get enough stupid predictions from Albion and BT as it is?
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Good Times,
Great Memories

Zelda isn't a near elite.

Also, I agree with those awards outside of Ryu winning the failure award for this division. MC failed more, I think. Doesn't matter if it's his "usual" performance. Just because he's always been a failure and we've come to expect it doesn't discount the fact he still fails in nearly every 1v1 match he's in.
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:>