GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 803

UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/26/2010 9:26:09 PM | message detail
I have fought with all of my being, all to forge a future for the black spider clan. I have no regrets.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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I'll attract the enemy with my *human* call.... I'M SO WASTED, I'M SO WASTED!!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 9:52:18 PM | message detail
[insert witty quote from Spy here]
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/26/2010 9:53:46 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #002
[insert witty quote from Spy here]


*cracks fingers*

"I was never really on your side."

"Gentlemen..."

"You got blood on my suit."

"Hiding won't save you..."

"This *will* be the last time you see me."

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 9:59:27 PM | message detail
I just seem to remember us joking about getting Zack into the contest back when we used to joke about Random Piece of FFVII Furniture being worth 25% on BL.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
red sox 777 | Posted 1/26/2010 9:59:27 PM | message detail
*Inserts obligatory post about how Crash doing well makes Magus look better*
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/26/2010 10:00:02 PM | message detail
Cloud's Wheelchair vs. Mario

Place your bets

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:00:07 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #005
*Inserts obligatory post about how Crash doing well makes Magus look better*


I should've known this was coming!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/26/2010 10:00:46 PM | message detail
I'd pick Crash > Magus in a year or two.
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Not Wylvane
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/26/2010 10:01:18 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/26/2010 10:02:09 PM | message detail
That actually sounds very reasonable. 44% on Cloud vs. 41% on Cloud.....

But it's not optimized in terms of Snake favorability! Using Nightmare's R1 matches with Snake 2k7 and Samus 2k8 has Snake winning with 54%, for example.

But like I said, room for improvement!
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/26/2010 10:03:02 PM | message detail
Poor Magus.

Anyone feeling a little shaky about Kefka/Arthas? I have Arthas winning, but I'm starting to wish I had gone with Kefka, especially after seeing Cecil's performance.

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VOTE FOR MISSINGNO.!
Characters who messed up my bracket: Shadow, Drake, Fawful, Liquid
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/26/2010 10:04:07 PM | message detail
Not good enough.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2922
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2925

As long as we assume that Snake was (insert random acronym)'d in the second poll, Snake will defeat both Cloud and Link with relative ease!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:04:48 PM | message detail
Chart from yesterday's match:

Time | ZackFAQs | Yuna | Votes
0:05 | 59.68% | 40.32% | 883
1:00 | 56.81% | 43.19% | 8546
2:00 | 56.99% | 43.01% | 7234
3:00 | 59.19% | 40.81% | 6705
4:00 | 58.83% | 41.17% | 6942
5:00 | 58.19% | 41.81% | 7128
6:00 | 58.62% | 41.38% | 6744
7:00 | 58.89% | 41.11% | 6349
8:00 | 59.03% | 40.97% | 5709
9:00 | 59.87% | 40.13% | 5216
10:00 | 59.55% | 40.45% | 4982
11:00 | 59.87% | 40.13% | 4306
12:00 | 59.52% | 40.48% | 3738

Zack is so good he gets TWO best hours! After the first two hours, Zack started rolling and never looked back.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:05:43 PM | message detail
And Hayabusa's starting to take off now. He may hit 65%+ yet.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
HaRRicH | Posted 1/26/2010 10:06:28 PM | message detail
Based on Hayabusa = Zero 2k8 R2 and using Crash's match from last year, Snake is expected to beat Samus with 53% right now. That's a pretty bad result but there's room for improvement!

That actually sounds very reasonable. 44% on Cloud vs. 41% on Cloud.....

But it's not optimized in terms of Snake favorability! Using Nightmare's R1 matches with Snake 2k7 and Samus 2k8 has Snake winning with 54%, for example.



Three different comparisons for Solid comfortably beating Samus? Me likey. This assumes Samus doesn't sap his SSBB-support...but hey, Solid's shaken off Nintendo-SFF a lot in the four-way format, so it probably doesn't bother him much. What do we have in recent years suggesting Samus > Solid, actually?
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/26/2010 10:06:39 PM | message detail
And see! Improvement!
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:07:41 PM | message detail
What do we have in recent years suggesting Samus > Solid, actually?

Uhhhh...

Samus/Snake 2006...?
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/26/2010 10:08:20 PM | message detail
Damn it Leon you know how to take me out of a good mood
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:08:27 PM | message detail
I don't think that post came across with the impression I was hoping for! That wasn't meant to be a "Duh!" comment. More like a "It's been 3 years since Samus looked like she could beat Snake" thing.

Lousy internet.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/26/2010 10:08:56 PM | message detail
Anyone feeling a little shaky about Kefka/Arthas? I have Arthas winning, but I'm starting to wish I had gone with Kefka, especially after seeing Cecil's performance.

I am. Because I can't trust Chokefka worth crap.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/26/2010 10:10:29 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | Posted: 1/27/2010 1:03:02 AM | #011
Poor Magus.

Anyone feeling a little shaky about Kefka/Arthas? I have Arthas winning, but I'm starting to wish I had gone with Kefka, especially after seeing Cecil's performance.


Absolutely not.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"We're only gonna score 17 points?" -LOL Tom Brady
HaRRicH | Posted 1/26/2010 10:10:41 PM | message detail
Haha, yeah, that had the exact opposite tone.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:10:54 PM | message detail
Anyone feeling a little shaky about Kefka/Arthas? I have Arthas winning

No need to be nervous then.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
SonicRaptor | Posted 1/26/2010 10:13:18 PM | message detail
Been regretting picking Kefka ever since the lockdown though I hold out hope an upset happens.
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...Just repeat to yourself / It's just a show / I should really just relax...
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/26/2010 10:14:56 PM | message detail
If Kefka actually wins I'll s- BAHAHAHAHAHAHA oh I couldn't even finish that, whew. Oh, Kefka.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
ZFS | Posted 1/26/2010 10:15:46 PM | message detail
petition:

when you go onto the homepage of gamefaqs kefka's laugh plays in the background

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/26/2010 10:18:45 PM | message detail
I love how Zack's so badass he got two best hours compared to everyone's one. It's like Zack wasn't just content with one, so he went out of his way to tie his best just to have two bests. Total awesomeness.

As for Kefka, on one hand, Cecil's performance was pretty damn impressive, and Dissidia probably helped there. On the other hand, FF4DS may have helped even more, and Thrall, who's weaker than Arthas, still pulled a solid 20% on Link, but most importantly... it's Kefka. Kefka's entire purpose is to disappoint in more and more embarrassing ways. Arthas being the favorite here only means Kefka's going to have to find a way to one-up himself, like letting Arthas double him.

At least Magus and Shadow had good years and impressive matches against Link and Mario respectively. Kefka's good year involved getting 70% on Wesker and losing to Diablo in his own division final in a contest where he only looked strong by default.
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Not Wylvane
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:19:10 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #026
petition:

when you go onto the homepage of gamefaqs kefka's laugh plays in the background


This would probably scare the crap out of me if this ever happened.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/26/2010 10:19:48 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #026
petition:

when you go onto the homepage of gamefaqs kefka's laugh plays in the background


Change it so it plays when you look at the poll results. That way you can hear Kefka laughing at himself while Arthas is breaking 70% on him!
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Not Wylvane
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/26/2010 10:20:20 PM | message detail
Looking at Zack yesterday it's highly possible FF4DS helped him. I knew it was weird that Kain and Rydia did far too better than him.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:21:33 PM | message detail
To me, Zack/Cecil LFF is basically a foregone conclusion at this point. Sonic Team sucks, but only so much of that close match can be blamed on Knuckles.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/26/2010 10:21:39 PM | message detail
And before I go to bed, I must say how much I love the MC/Spy pic. Spy's pointing his gun right at MC while MC looks like he's cowering in fear. Now that is an awesome pic.

If only we could get a Kirby/Dante pic where Kirby's fierceness is making Dante cower! Watching ertyu's reaction to it would be hilarious.
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Not Wylvane
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/26/2010 10:22:22 PM | message detail
Cecil/Knuckles is one of those matches that really has me saddened at the 12 hour format (that and Wesker/Ken) as the upset could have really come through... although that match probably doesn't happen in a 24 hour bracket, so eh.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
ZFS | Posted 1/26/2010 10:23:05 PM | message detail
This would probably scare the crap out of me if this ever happened.

Compelled to vote for Kefka I'm sure!

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:23:30 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #034
This would probably scare the crap out of me if this ever happened.

Compelled to vote for Kefka I'm sure!


Voting for Kefka anyway! LOL World of Warcraft
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
ZFS | Posted 1/26/2010 10:24:06 PM | message detail
Good call.

c'mon kefka don't suck for once

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
ZFS | Posted 1/26/2010 10:25:04 PM | message detail
actually crisis averted i took arthas

I feel like I'm doing pretty good this contest. How many points does everyone have so far? And what matches did you miss?

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:26:32 PM | message detail
20/22 - GrrrrLIQUIIDDDDDDDDDD

Oh, and Yuna, too.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/26/2010 10:27:12 PM | message detail
20/22 for me... and feel pretty confident about being right till L Block/HK-47

lol thinking jokes would flop in 1v1
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/26/2010 10:27:54 PM | message detail
Missed Shadow, Drake, and Liquid... the only one that's going to really hurt is Liquid as he's in R3.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/26/2010 10:29:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, you guys are probably right regarding Kefka. I guess Arthas just makes me nervous because he lost to KOS-MOS... but then again, Diablo could probably be blamed for that.

I just hope the poor guy doesn't get a lettuce picture this time!

I feel like I'm doing pretty good this contest. How many points does everyone have so far? And what matches did you miss?

18. My incorrect picks were Shadow, Nathan, Fawful and Liquid.

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VOTE FOR MISSINGNO.!
Characters who messed up my bracket: Shadow, Drake, Fawful, Liquid
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/26/2010 10:30:03 PM | message detail
If Diablo or Arthas were alone, they woulda beaten Kos-Mos.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/26/2010 10:30:24 PM | message detail
Also I hate to keep second-guessing myself, but if the Snake > Sephiroth upset happens, won't that just create a bandwagon all over again? Ol' Wingy isn't that far off from Cloud...

...oh, wait, the semis are 24 hour matches, aren't they? Unfortunate.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
ZFS | Posted 1/26/2010 10:30:59 PM | message detail
Ha, sounds like everyone missed Liquid!

I've got 19/22 right now -- Magus, Drake, and Liquid being my losses. Good news is that I had none of them going further than a round.

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wheresoever you go, go with all your heart
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/26/2010 10:32:34 PM | message detail
Change it so it plays when you look at the poll results. That way you can hear Kefka laughing at himself while Arthas is breaking 70% on him!

I'd laugh so hard if that actually happened.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:36:03 PM | message detail
Unfortunately for me, I have Liquid going to round 3, but that wasn't on purpose. I could've sworn I picked Vivi, but I didn't check my bracket again until after lockdown and saw I had Liquid.

Whoops. I may have lost that one anyway though depending on what Altair does.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/26/2010 10:37:16 PM | message detail
I had both Drake and Liquid going to Round Three.

One less bracket to worry about, I guess!

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VOTE FOR MISSINGNO.!
Characters who messed up my bracket: Shadow, Drake, Fawful, Liquid
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/26/2010 10:37:39 PM | message detail
Man this match is having bad votals. These are the worst votals to begin any night match yet I believe.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/26/2010 10:41:53 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #047
I had both Drake and Liquid going to Round Three.

One less bracket to worry about, I guess!


Honestly, the first couple of rounds aren't as important. You gotta nail round 3 and on to win.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
Kotetsu534 | Posted 1/26/2010 10:48:14 PM | message detail
20/22, got revolved by Ocelot and assassinated by Altair. Probably dropping two more points because of Vivi > Altair, unless Liquid has just inexplicable fallen for no reason. Probably losing another three points because of Phoenix to round three, unless it turns out Jecht is strengthless. Throw another three on top for Sub-Zero to round three if a Square boost has actually happened. Don't mind too much if they win though - they're great characters!

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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy Tactics, Ocarina of Time, Final Fantasy IX