GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 801

red sox 777 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:42:28 PM | message detail
And those 2 matches make Zack look really impressive- Zack is projected to 46.27% on Vincent. If you assume Crono 2007 = Crono 2008 and Vincent fell a bit to make the rematch equal, Zack ends up near 48% on Vincent.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/25/2010 10:44:17 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #043
I said that Zack's R2 match last year was more impressive than anything Yuna ever did. Leon said "Can't use it, it has LFF" to which I called BS.


Hmm... if I were going to discredit that Round 2 match, I'd use Zack's huge picture advantage (Link was in ugly kid form). I do think that match is pretty legit as far as 4ways go, but Yuna had some sick performances in the female bracket. Nearly matching Mario's percentage on Joanna Dark, that was impressive.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:44:25 PM | message detail
First Place Factor seems as legitimate to me as Last Place Factor.

Look at Nightmare from round 1 to round 2 in 2007 and 2008. Look at Falco from round 1 to round 2 last year. Why did those characters do so much worse when they had no reason to do so? Heck, you could almost say that's what happened with Liquid last year against Luigi.
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Lopen | Posted 1/25/2010 10:44:58 PM | message detail
I said that Zack's R2 match last year was more impressive than anything Yuna ever did. Leon said "Can't use it, it has LFF" to which I called BS.

Why is it impressive, though? Is it just because he didn't get killed by Link? I mean, I look at him beating Wario and Zidane and can't really be too impressed by that.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:45:28 PM | message detail
FPF actually has a lot of evidence going for it. Something like every Noble Niner plus Vincent improved on their round 1 competition in round 2 last year. Sonic/Magus/Sandbag is perhaps the clincher (unfortunately for me)- Sandbag/Magus got 40% in round 1 and Sandbag got 33% in round 2. Using round 1, Alucard looks like he could give Sonic a really close match.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/25/2010 10:45:58 PM | message detail
Zack put up 30% on Link 3 times in a row, once with Zidane sharing a poll. You have to go back 4 years to find anything good from Yuna, and the female bracket that year is about as valid as the villain's contest -- meaning the last time Yuna had a legitimate, good match was 39% on Ganondorf in 2005.

It's a tossup match, but saying Yuna passes the eye test above Zack is completely ludicrous. If Zack was a bandwagon, he would have gone up round by round. He stayed constant, so there was no fluke there. If Yuna wins, it's because she's stronger. Has nothing to do with last year being some one-time fluke.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 10:46:11 PM | message detail
As long as we're on the subject of LFF,

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2915
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3300

One of those results looks more impressive.

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Lopen | Posted 1/25/2010 10:49:07 PM | message detail
Actually I think Yuna's R1 match against Vercetti/MC/PaRappa looks more impressive than anything Zack dished out.

Something about calling 18-23% showings impressive doesn't sit well with me.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:49:30 PM | message detail
Also, looking at the Games Contest for potential FPF: Mario World/Final Fantasy, FFIV/Mega Man 3, FFVII/MK64 (Maybe, I'm not sold on that one). I dunno. There's got to be reasons for huge disparities. The thing you can look at with all of these matches is that the top 2 characters were by far the two strongest and at least one of the entries was BAD BAD fodder. I don't know how that affects the match, but they all seem to have that in common.

Nightmare in 2007: Snake/Nightmare/Vyse/Rayman
Nightmare in 2008: Samus/Nightmare/Crash/Raz
Falco: Vincent/Falco/GlaDOS/Wander
Liquid: Luigi/Liquid/Roxas/Sho
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 10:49:49 PM | message detail
Yuna got destroyed in that match.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:51:24 PM | message detail
You have to go back 4 years to find anything good from Yuna, and the female bracket that year is about as valid as the villain's contest

And in both instances, the only illegitimate things about them are at the end: Bowser/Ganon/Sephiroth and Samus/Tifa/Zelda. Yuna's performance on Zelda was legit. I see no reason to doubt it. Yuna's 60% on Chun-Li was legit. I see no reason to doubt it. Maybe 60% on Chun-Li doesn't look that great, but I dunno.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:51:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, but that was the Master Chief that lost to Snake by 2000 votes.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 10:52:08 PM | message detail
The entire Female Bracket is bogus. Every single heavy hitter in that bracket overperformed in nearly all of their matches.

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Lopen | Posted 1/25/2010 10:52:24 PM | message detail
She still got like 30%, which is 7% better than 23% assuming my mathematics degree still works
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:52:48 PM | message detail
It's a tossup match, but saying Yuna passes the eye test above Zack is completely ludicrous.

No one's really arguing this. I don't deny Zack's looked better. I just think people sell Yuna short like they sell Rikku short.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 10:53:00 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #062
Yeah, but that was the Master Chief that lost to Snake by 2000 votes.


No, it wasn't, as MC had a very clear bandwagon going that entire contest. Look at his R2 match vs. Yuna compared to his R1 match.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:53:05 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #063
The entire Female Bracket is bogus. Every single heavy hitter in that bracket overperformed in nearly all of their matches.


So Zelda overperformed on Yuna?

Great!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 10:53:37 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #064
She still got like 30%, which is 7% better than 23% assuming my mathematics degree still works


30% against Master Chief, Tommy Vercetti, and PaRappa The Rapper.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/25/2010 10:53:43 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #066
No, it wasn't, as MC had a very clear bandwagon going that entire contest. Look at his R2 match vs. Yuna compared to his R1 match.


The first round match was also before Halo 3 released; every other match was post Halo 3.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:54:16 PM | message detail
It's not losing to Chief that's embarassing there, it's losing so badly to Ganondorf and Luigi despite them LFFing each other. Link and Mario are a long way above Ganondorf and Luigi.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:55:21 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #070
It's not losing to Chief that's embarassing there, it's losing so badly to Ganondorf and Luigi despite them LFFing each other. Link and Mario are a long way above Ganondorf and Luigi.


Do you think Zack takes 2nd place there?

And Zack only ends up looking good relative to Mario because Link is so much stronger than Mario. Ganondorf and Luigi essentially split 50/50 while Link hits Mario pretty good.
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Lopen | Posted 1/25/2010 10:55:47 PM | message detail
I can do this too

23% against Link, Zidane, and Wario.

Or

21% against Link, Altair, and Duke Nukem.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 10:56:58 PM | message detail
No, you can't. All of those characters are a hell of a lot more impressive than Vercetti and PaRappa.

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/25/2010 10:57:27 PM | message detail
I KNEW THAT YOU GUYS WOULD BE WRONG ABOUT CID BREAKING 40%, BUT I DIDN'T HAVE THE GUTS TO STAND FOR THAT. ARGH!!!

As for Zack/Yuna, I will argue that Zack getting close to LFFd Mario is better than anything that Yuna has managed...then again, isn't Yuna on Mario's level according to a certain common opponent?

(no freakin way!!!)
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:57:39 PM | message detail
And you want to know why I honestly took Yuna > Zack?

I wasn't convinced Zack > Aerith, and Yuna = Aerith. If he is (and I'd say the odds of Zack > Aerith are much greater than not), then he'll win just fine. This is really the ONLY thing that determines the outcome of this match: Is Zack stronger than Aerith?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/25/2010 10:58:24 PM | message detail
SFF'd Mario is still a long way above LFF'd Ganondorf. It's not like Link killed him or anything- there were a few points of SFF at most and if I were to guess, none, only LFF.

That Yuna match has always been for me one of the best arguments for Last Place Factor, and I give her that excuse, definitely. At the same time, Zack didn't get Last Place Factored against Link, Mario, and MMX, which suggests something.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Lopen | Posted 1/25/2010 10:58:33 PM | message detail
Pretty sure Vercetti beats SFFed Wario and Zidane pretty decisively.

Pretty sure Vercetti vs Duke would be a debatable match too.
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ZFS | Posted 1/25/2010 10:59:36 PM | message detail
Zack was more impressive to me last year than Yuna has been in recent times, but it shouldn't be hard to find something that looks more impressive for Yuna because she's been in the contest a whole lot longer. Zack didn't get a real chance to beat down bad fodder, or show how good he is at blowing out weak competition because he was stuck with Link the whole way. The match with Link/Mario/MMX, though, was definitely far more convincing, even in a loss, than anything Yuna has done.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/25/2010 10:59:42 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #074
I KNEW THAT YOU GUYS WOULD BE WRONG ABOUT CID BREAKING 40%, BUT I DIDN'T HAVE THE GUTS TO STAND FOR THAT. ARGH!!!

As for Zack/Yuna, I will argue that Zack getting close to LFFd Mario is better than anything that Yuna has managed...then again, isn't Yuna on Mario's level according to a certain common opponent?

(no freakin way!!!)


wait a sec

you actually read what other people said? I thought you were oblivious to everything else in your own little world
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 10:59:49 PM | message detail
That Yuna match has always been for me one of the best arguments for Last Place Factor, and I give her that excuse, definitely.

I think you could also argue a "Close match factor." Maybe Ganon and Luigi overperform and Yuna gets neglected because they're having a close match for 2nd, and maybe that's what happened with Magus/Sandbag.
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Achromatic | Posted 1/25/2010 11:00:03 PM | message detail
I think Aerith is stronger than Yuna but <_<
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 11:00:27 PM | message detail
GTA has been in a freefall for a long time. Vercetti is most likely a good bit weaker than when we last saw him - I mean, he wasn't even able to make the vote-in polls.

Also, Link is in that group as well. You may have heard of him.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:00:51 PM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #081
I think Aerith is stronger than Yuna but <_<


Zelda in 2006 says they're the same.

But I expect to hear "LOL FEMALE BRACKET SUCKS DOESN'T COUNT" any second now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/25/2010 11:01:13 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #080
That Yuna match has always been for me one of the best arguments for Last Place Factor, and I give her that excuse, definitely.

I think you could also argue a "Close match factor." Maybe Ganon and Luigi overperform and Yuna gets neglected because they're having a close match for 2nd, and maybe that's what happened with Magus/Sandbag.


seriously? we have a CMF now?
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creativename | Posted 1/25/2010 11:01:51 PM | message detail
Look at Nightmare from round 1 to round 2 in 2007 and 2008. Look at Falco from round 1 to round 2 last year. Why did those characters do so much worse when they had no reason to do so? Heck, you could almost say that's what happened with Liquid last year against Luigi.

What does this have to do with first place factor...?


FPF actually has a lot of evidence going for it. Something like every Noble Niner plus Vincent improved on their round 1 competition in round 2 last year. Sonic/Magus/Sandbag is perhaps the clincher (unfortunately for me)- Sandbag/Magus got 40% in round 1 and Sandbag got 33% in round 2. Using round 1, Alucard looks like he could give Sonic a really close match.

I'm not really sure what you mean. Do you mean "first place in round 1 only factor" or something? Because I'm not following what this has to do with first place characters underperforming.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:01:59 PM | message detail
Not necessarily, but I don't know why people wouldn't think of it as a possibility. Are people more likely to vote for a character who's having a close match or one who's in last place and not in contention?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/25/2010 11:02:23 PM | message detail
Cid's made no progress at all this past hour. He's still losing Europe and Asia, including the UK and Phillipines, making me wonder if we're going to see the FFVII Total Domination Zone in action tonight at all.
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Achromatic | Posted 1/25/2010 11:02:30 PM | message detail
I think people vote their favorite without checking the results first.

I am weird like that.
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Lopen | Posted 1/25/2010 11:03:01 PM | message detail
Well I'm not saying Link's group is not the stronger one, I was just noting the irony in your statement because 2/3 of Zack's OMG SO GOOD matches have sub Vercetti entrants in them.

I'm just saying it doesn't really matter whose group is stronger. I see only 23%. Guy needs more than looking good vs Link to convince me. Don't know why no one's learned after 2k3 Magus
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:03:15 PM | message detail
Look at Nightmare from round 1 to round 2 in 2007 and 2008. Look at Falco from round 1 to round 2 last year. Why did those characters do so much worse when they had no reason to do so? Heck, you could almost say that's what happened with Liquid last year against Luigi.

What does this have to do with first place factor...?


Look at how Nightmare compares with Snake and Samus from round 1 to round 2 (Hint: It's a big difference) and how Falco compares with Vincent from round 1 to round 2 (Hint: It's a big difference). Something happened there.
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ZFS | Posted 1/25/2010 11:03:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, these factors are pretty silly. You can make a factor for pretty much everything if you wanted to. At some point, you just gotta realize what you're saying!

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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 11:03:42 PM | message detail
Man, can't you Yuna backers just say you picked her on a gut feeling and be done with it? That to me is a hell of a lot better logic than anything that's been said so far in this topic.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:04:04 PM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #088
I think people vote their favorite without checking the results first.

I am weird like that.


Eh, it's hard to deny rallying and stuff in close matches exists.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/25/2010 11:04:25 PM | message detail
I'm not really sure what you mean. Do you mean "first place in round 1 only factor" or something? Because I'm not following what this has to do with first place characters underperforming.

We only have evidence for obvious winners in round 1 underperforming. I don't really believe it happened with Zack's matches against Link in round 2 and round 3; it's just something I'm not 100% confident in rejecting.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:04:37 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #092
Man, can't you Yuna backers just say you picked her on a gut feeling and be done with it? That to me is a hell of a lot better logic than anything that's been said so far in this topic.


Did you skip post 75 or something?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/25/2010 11:05:24 PM | message detail
You kept talking after that, obviously not following the 'be done with it' portion of my statement!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:05:47 PM | message detail
And just dismissing factors by saying "Well, that's silly, you're going overboard with this stuff!" doesn't disprove anything.
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Lopen | Posted 1/25/2010 11:05:57 PM | message detail
Well I make all of my picks off of gut, but I don't discard the stats when using it.

I'm just saying there is ample evidence out there to suggest that Zack's Link stats might not be worth the bandwidth they're printed on.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 11:06:05 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #096
You kept talking after that, obviously not following the 'be done with it' portion of my statement!


Why be done with it? We wouldn't be posting right now.
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ZFS | Posted 1/25/2010 11:06:39 PM | message detail
And just dismissing factors by saying "Well, that's silly, you're going overboard with this stuff!" doesn't disprove anything.

Sure it does. It's the TISF at play here!

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