GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 799

LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:36:38 PM | message detail
Ooh, soft...I fight for my friends.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/24/2010 10:38:46 PM | message detail
I fight for my soft friends?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:39:15 PM | message detail
Does Prinny qualify as soft?
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/24/2010 10:40:49 PM | message detail
Prinnies are possessed puppet-doll things, so maybe!

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
yoshifan823 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:41:36 PM | message detail
I'm surprised it took this long to make this topic.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis.
Gaddswell | Posted 1/24/2010 10:42:59 PM | message detail
Well, Prinnies do explode when thrown, so yes - they'd be rather fragile!
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ZFS | Posted 1/24/2010 10:43:25 PM | message detail
Zidane winning a match good contest

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/24/2010 10:43:50 PM | message detail
Don't forget Dark Link!
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:43:54 PM | message detail
HaRRicH wins. AKI Man never gets old.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:44:13 PM | message detail
An all-Link Noble Nine, I hope to live long enough to see the day
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/24/2010 10:44:22 PM | message detail
Is Akinator legal for these things

If so, someone needs to make a rally topic

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:44:53 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #011
Is Akinator legal for these things

If so, someone needs to make a rally topic


I bet he'd rock the Oracle Contest.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/24/2010 10:45:10 PM | message detail
If any CDi character makes it, its gotta be the king

"Mah boy"


King Harkinian was actually the reason I made an account here. I wanted to nominate him for the '08 contest, so I signed up!

Ehhhh, I dunno if he'd allow it.

I hope he would. After all, we have Mega Man and Mega Man X!

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Altair assassinated my bracket.
(Also, you should vote for Prinny!)
AsurasKordoth | Posted 1/24/2010 10:47:27 PM | message detail
The Guru winner picking a near-elite to guarantee them a 1 seed would actually be pretty interesting. They would probably crush their entire division,
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~AK~ // Merc
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/24/2010 10:48:01 PM | message detail
With regard to Totakeke (sp?) and other Animal Crossing characters... No. If Tom Nook is any indication, then can only be very, very weak.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:48:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, but Tom Nook is a tyrant.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/24/2010 10:49:29 PM | message detail
Master Chief as a Guru pick would be incredible. We could see a 16 seed > 1 seed upset!

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Altair assassinated my bracket.
(Also, you should vote for Prinny!)
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:50:10 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #017
Master Chief as a Guru pick would be incredible. We could see a 16 seed > 1 seed upset!


Hey, I'd have pulled the trigger on Lightning > Chief this year!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
AsurasKordoth | Posted 1/24/2010 10:50:21 PM | message detail
Seriously though, Reno needs to make it in next year.
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~AK~ // Merc
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/24/2010 10:50:31 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #017
Master Chief as a Guru pick would be incredible. We could see a 16 seed > 1 seed upset!


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1625
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:51:20 PM | message detail
With regard to Totakeke (sp?) and other Animal Crossing characters... No. If Tom Nook is any indication, then can only be very, very weak.

I know.

And I'm ok with that.

Totakeke for CB2011

speaking of Totakeke

nominate Totakeke
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YoboD | Posted 1/24/2010 10:52:38 PM | message detail
Guybrush should be the guru nom. It might actually help him win a match!
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Time to wander around
Aimlessly
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:53:09 PM | message detail

From: YoboD | #022
Guybrush should be the guru nom. It might actually help him win a match!


I'm not sure any kind of seeding will help him do that.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:56:21 PM | message detail
I bet Guybrush would beat Ryo in a rematch!
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/24/2010 10:57:32 PM | message detail
I know.

And I'm ok with that.

Totakeke for CB2011

speaking of Totakeke

nominate Totakeke


...Meh.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/24/2010 10:58:03 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #024
I bet Guybrush would beat Ryo in a rematch!


I'd take that bet!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/24/2010 10:58:29 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3247&region=EUR

All we need is for Bacon to make the next contest's gimmick voting by continent, and feed Guybrush awful-tier Nintendo!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/24/2010 11:00:38 PM | message detail
Europe got nothing on

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3247&region=DE

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 1/24/2010 11:03:08 PM | message detail
It saddens me that people who picked Miles > Big Boss are ahead of me in the standings right now. Like.. really?
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CBVIII: 16/18 - 16 pts - Losses: Ocelot, Liquid
Night Pick: Zidane Day Pick: Ike
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/24/2010 11:05:22 PM | message detail
Altair kampft wie eine Kuh
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Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 1/24/2010 11:06:34 PM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | Posted: 1/25/2010 1:51:20 AM | #021
nominate Totakeke


every year
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The question to everyone's answer.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/25/2010 12:49:19 AM | message detail
Claptrap has about the same % he had at the end of the power hour. Gotta say he's holding up well overnight so far. Lets see how he does in the next 2 hours though
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Agent M | Posted 1/25/2010 1:33:56 AM | message detail
I'd rather see characters with decent popularity that have yet to make a contest get nominated.

Ie: just about anyone from FFVII, FFVIII, FFX that hasn't made an appearance.

And Diablo getting snubbed in a 128 character bracket is a bit weird.

Robo from CT, though probably weak as hell, is one of my favourite characters from that game.

Heck the entire cast of CT would make for better fodder than what we end up with.

Plus Earthworm Jim.
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greatone10 | Posted 1/25/2010 2:30:29 AM | message detail
The Guru pick could be someone like Crono or Mega Man, which wouldn't be totally useless as it would end up getting them a 1 seed and an easier path, at least in theory,
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KrahenProphets's path to Best Game Ever '09.
If only I was half the guru he was, I may not have this sig.
voltch | Posted 1/25/2010 4:06:08 AM | message detail
boring days are boring, this division's future rounds look better though.
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Agent M | Posted 1/25/2010 5:13:24 AM | message detail
Man and I banked on Zidane not looking like weakling here...

Blowouts are just not happening this contest.

Subby vs Tidus is THE match I'm waiting for this round.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 5:16:11 AM | message detail

From: greatone10 | #034
The Guru pick could be someone like Crono or Mega Man, which wouldn't be totally useless as it would end up getting them a 1 seed and an easier path, at least in theory,


It would be totally useless. That's not really the point of the Guru nomination.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
voltch | Posted 1/25/2010 5:21:59 AM | message detail
I don't want laguna in before Zell or Oak though.
But seriously, in an 8 division contest like this one, there are plenty of chances to make a low strong seed face a weak high, so good bracket placement is what matters most.
you could have had Vincent setup against sonic a one seed and MMX could have been setup against Sora.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/25/2010 5:22:02 AM | message detail
Also I bet once we hit the top seeds one place is separated with tens to hundreds of votes.
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Character Battle VIII - 13/18 - Today's Winners: Zidane and Ike
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/25/2010 5:24:35 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/25/2010 8:16:11 AM | #037
It would be totally useless. That's not really the point of the Guru nomination.


Nomming a Near Elite could be interesting, though. Makes the possibility of them meeting a weak Noble Niner more likely, for instance.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/25/2010 5:25:38 AM | message detail
Not really. Seeding has very little to do with that. Bracket placement has everything to do with that. Vincent has an 8 seed meets a Noble Niner in the second round.

The only problem is that it's Sephiroth.
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voltch | Posted 1/25/2010 5:29:11 AM | message detail
yeah, seedings are irrelevant since the stronger guys will meet up, it's all about which tough guys are drawn together?
The only really big thing that could happen is like say you have ganondorf vs auron as round 1, winner gets a clean run for till the division finals, then it's a big points match, but oter than that, nothing beats placing.
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marsman57 | Posted 1/25/2010 5:51:28 AM | message detail
What about Bubsy? That would be a great nomination.
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marsman57 | Posted 1/25/2010 5:52:05 AM | message detail
Actually, quick Bubsy v. Yo! Noid. Call it.
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Maybe PICS NAO later, WTF do you think this is, Neopets or something! No ****ing maybe no ****ing later, PICS NAO or DAIIIIII!! -- LeighDaMan
marsman57 | Posted 1/25/2010 5:53:01 AM | message detail
I guess the character name is technically just Noid. I always called him by both since I don't remember the commercials, just the game.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/25/2010 6:22:19 AM | message detail
Match XX: (4) Ike vs. (13) Prinny

Information

Name: Ike
Game/Series: Fire Emblem
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 1

Name: Prinny
Game/Series: Disgaea
Previous Contest: N/A
Performance: N/A

Analysis

It took a while after the previous guru contest ended, but it was Prinny that everyone had to support to get into the contest. Seeing how he’s one of the four 13 seeds that automatically made it in and SBAllen stated that the least nominated character only received 196 nominations I feel confident in saying that Prinny’s nomination support was over 90% because of board 8. He’s pretty lucky since there’s no way the guy would have made it in from the vote-ins.

Ike can be considered unlucky in his first two contest matches. He had a great chance at winning either of them, but in the end he was left with the short end of the stick. Still getting 45% on Pikachu is rather impressive and given his path it seems likely that Ike can reach round 3 before being killed by Mario at night. I know I joked around about Ike getting the biggest win of the contest, but if you were to tell me that Prinny was the weakest character in the bracket I wouldn’t be surprised.

Depending on Disgaea for support is something that you don’t want to rely on. They may support just about anything, but the size of the fanbase is just too small to make an impact in this contest. He even has his own spinoff game on the PSP, but it seems like the game was not popular which doesn’t bode well for his future.

Ike will finally get the chance to look strong in this match as he will push a tripling on this guy. Laharl would get crushed in this match and Prinny would easily lose to him as well. It took three contests for this win and he’s trying to make up for lost time in his bid to reach the third round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Ike > Prinny

charmander6000’s Prediction: Ike wins, 73.58% - 26.42%

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Character Battle VIII - 13/18 - Today's Winners: Zidane and Ike
Gooper Blooper | Posted 1/25/2010 6:59:02 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3748&region=USXRI

OHHHHHHH
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/25/2010 7:11:41 AM | message detail
Prertty disappointed in Zidane here. I know I've preached a Western shift, but Claptrap is a bit character.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/25/2010 7:41:56 AM | message detail
I stupidly picked Zidane to beat Ike in my bracket based on FFIX being more popular than all American games on this site. I didn't pay attention to that round 1 result. And barely beating out an SFFd Shadow now looks like bottom-feeder status among midcarders. About the rest of the division:

-What makes you guys think Cid is going to break 40% on Mega Man? He's probably going to score 35% at most. Remember that Mega Man barely failed to break 30% on Axel, and Cid is probably around his level. And remind me what Cid does in FF7 again? All that I remember is that he mans the crew's airship, and that he built a spaceship only to see everybody bail out of crisis in space.
-Okay, I picked Zack to beat Yuna based on Zack's good performances last year coupled with Yuna missing the contest and likely going down based on that. But perhaps the momentum from FFX's win in the GOTD poll will carry over?
-Mario/Big Boss will likely be a repeat of Mario/Shadow (minus the fact that we'll be expecting it!), but what do you think Falco scores on Mario indirectly? I think 30% at most, and even that projects a Mario victory. And Falco is likely a bit above Edgeworth (probably worth 20% on Cloud, and if that's too little...).
-As I mentioned, I stupidly picked Zidane to beat Ike. Now we need Prinny to hold Ike under 70% so that there's a chance for that occurance.
-Zack probably breaks 40% on Mega Man.
-Ryu H./Master Chief = where did the hype for this match go again?

And then this division breaks down.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/25/2010 7:47:54 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | Posted: 1/25/2010 10:41:56 AM | #049
I stupidly picked Zidane to beat Ike in my bracket based on FFIX being more popular than all American games on this site. I didn't pay attention to that round 1 result.


One good thing that came from the fourways is voting trends. Zidane during the day completely sucks compared to Ike. Ike more or less has the Brawl ASV.
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