GameFAQs Contests

Which is precisely what happens when you try to use fourways. You can twist numbers around to make it look like they're useful stats, but the last 2 contests have been so full of anomalies and weirdness that it's nearly impossible to come to a full reliable set of stats. For every match Leon's fourway numbers predicts right, there are 2 or 3 that will wind up completely off-base. Where do you even begin to figure out which are which?
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

I originally blamed Leon for the Pikachu/Dante match, but then last time we got Dante/Leon/Riku and Riku fell flat on his face.

I'd say that's because Riku didn't gain much from KH2. Considering you don't even see him until near the end of the game...
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Pikachu/Dante/Leon/Ammy is still one of the weirdest, most inexplicable matches in contest history. If I had to blame anything, I'd blame the picture, but even then, it defies a simple explanation, I think. Dante beat Pikachu just fine once Leon was out of the poll (Sure, you add Luigi, but Pikachu has shown he can withstand LFF pretty well).

Plus, Dante's the only non-Noble Niner to break 50% in a 4-way, which has to be worth at least a little bit. Crono didn't even do that! Hey, he did better on Ammy than Crono did, but you can blame that on CAPCOM HIERARCHY or just Okami getting more exposure between 2007 and 2008.

Regardless, we'll get a chance to see what Dante's really worth, if he makes it to Cloud.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

when the top character in the poll with dante is a random enemy from world of warcraft, i really dont think its worth much
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Well, I'm not saying I'd take Dante to beat Sora or Auron, but I think he's closer to them that some people think.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/23/2010 7:12:14 PM | #103
Pikachu/Dante/Leon/Ammy is still one of the weirdest, most inexplicable matches in contest history.

It's quite explicable.

See: Format!
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I am the Dragon of Blood, a relentless prince of pain
Renouncing God on His throne, my blood is forever stained.

Oh look is that ulti trying to be clever again I think it is
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

It's not like I've ever liked the fourways or anything. They were a cute gimmick once. Twice was overkill, and then our games contest had it. I'll always be bitter our second games contest had fourways AND a generational gap. It's like kicking someone in the nuts, then slapping them afterwards for good measure.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone has one and no one thinks theirs stinks." -Lunar 2

And on a 100% serious note, variation in that format is off the charts. 1v1 variation can be nuts year to year, but in fourways it goes nuts from round to round if not every match. They're borderline coin flips for no reason sometimes. Don't forget how bad Super Mario World did in the first round a few months ago.
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"Spoil FFX for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if Jecht's going to be another Auron or another Sin." -Soul on PW vs Jecht

I think we mostly agree to hate four-ways together as a big internet-family, but they were pretty accurate compared to the hate we gave them; for example, they've been calling from the beginning a big drop for the Sonic-crew...and most of us chose to ignore it, so now we're the ones waiting for Ganon or Kirby to ruin our brackets. Also, a complete list of x-stats from four-ways relies on so many micro-managing decisions that it could probably be argued our assumptions construct those wacky final stats as much as the wacky four-way results themselves (with good intentions, mind you, but the numbers aren't just the numbers)...

...but individual matches themselves can still generally be of use. I know we can't wait for the four-ways to become as useless to us as the Top Ten List, but until then let's try to lay off of the people who are using the information available to them if you're using instinct or anecdotal evidence.


And yeah Ulti, I felt confident in Liquid > Altair, but I had been saying seeing both Altair and Ezio as two-seeds had me thinking they could each impress since before the lockdown...and nobody here that I know of counted on Altair to do this. I don't recall you arguing hard for Altair either, so I don't see why you're calling me out other than just wanting to call people out to prove some point.
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I liked four-ways.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

And yeah Ulti, I felt confident in Liquid > Altair, but I had been saying seeing both Altair and Ezio as two-seeds had me thinking they could each impress since before the lockdown...and nobody here that I know of counted on Altair to do this.

I always thought that Altair could win this. What floors me is that he's winning so handily. I mean...even accounting for Liquid last year being a fluke and Altair boositng, dayum.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

We should do three ways, one moves on. See some serious LFF
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One of the Dedicated 500 - #60, #130, #356, #464
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/432/aybarja5.gif

Normally I disagree with Ulti, but in this case, he didn't start it. In fact, it was someone (can't remember who and don't feel like going back to the last topic) that picked Liquid, who got really butthurt and defensive when we agreed that this match was a tossup.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Yeah, percentage-wise is what I mean -- I remember hearing some support in this topic for Altair, but I mainly think of SOWL on that one and don't really remember Ulti saying much about it before now. Might be wrong on it, but I don't remember it.
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Anyway, does everyone agree that Vivi is pretty much screwed next round? He might have been able to pull it out during a night match, but a day match...yeah.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

I remember Ulti saying in other topics that he picked Altair, but I don't think he posted that in here (or at least, didn't argue that in here).
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

Ulti is really good about stating his opinions strongly, going quiet then speaking up if he's right and letting it die if he's wrong.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

Ulti is really good about stating his opinions strongly, going quiet then speaking up if he's right and letting it die if he's wrong.

I would comment on that, but then again, I was pretty much invisible (by choice) during the Drake/Boss match... >_>
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Good Times,
Great Memories

Everyone in the Stats Topic does that.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

No everyone else argues right up until the match. Ulti goes quiet about a week before the match.

Ulti does it the best anyways.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

Four-ways were okay for a year (the year I won prize-money, haha), but they just didn't hold the same appeal.


And hiding out when you're wrong is, well, your call if you want to, but I find it more productive (in the sense of being on a forum about contests revolving around video games) to stick around and try to make sense of why you're wrong. I dunno though, I think I've started enjoying the trends of the industry as far as what the fans like in contests like these than the contests themselves -- I don't argue as much as I used to, and I've only made a few posts about Auron > Squall, the big match of the contest to me.
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http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

So does Big Boss not crush Edgeworth as badly tomorrow?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

he, when the time comes, I'll argue plenty with you Har on that pick.
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Shakes Fist!

If Big Boss doesn't destroy Edgeworth tomorrow with a freaking Snake pic, it's time to start the Squall > Snake alarm.

Again.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

I wouldn't be surprised if Edgeworth broke 30%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

damn, I just noticed, War your Tag-team seems to be catching up, can't let that happen.
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Shakes Fist!

Don't worry, I forgot to change my initial Liquid pick to something reasonable, which I think was like 60%.
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but at least the pseudo-rivalry is getting real, 5th place vs 6th, could go either way if i keep messing up as well.
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Shakes Fist!

But of course, when Sora > Mario with 53.45% pulls through, I'll ruin you and TRE so nothing I do here matters!!
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

Had it been Melting Cartoon Big Boss, then I would see Edgeworth breaking 30%. But not when he has a naked snake picture. If Edgeworth breaks 30% in that match, it's to set alarms, not just for Metal Gear, but for everyone.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream

Any pre-MGS3 pic of Big Boss could fail to break 63% Edgeworth and it wouldn't surprise me.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

Also, here's a good one since we're all so down on pretty much anyone who has ever shown remote signs of contest strength.

MGS3 Big Boss vs. Sonic in a night match, who ya got?
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

63% is pretty specific.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

Peace Walker boss might be a better pic, that is one mean outfit.
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Shakes Fist!

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #133
Also, here's a good one since we're all so down on pretty much anyone who has ever shown remote signs of contest strength.

MGS3 Big Boss vs. Sonic in a night match, who ya got?

Big Duh- I mean, Boss.
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The Gamer In Me
"paulg is a genius." - MajinZidane

I'll start keeping a closer eye out for that, char...and don't worry voltch, it's not because people don't want to argue with me, I just haven't brought it up a lot. When the time comes closer though, I'm all for starting it up again!


Yeah, Big Boss needs a 3D-pic badly. He got 28.53% against Auron with some melting pic, though I think that was before MGS3 really started picking up steam here...and Big Boss with his sprite lost to Fox-with-Mario in 2007 (which means it was Fox's SNES-SF face against Mario's classic SMB-sprite). Forget Solid ****, Big **** is terrible.
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Ulti's spot-on about 4-way stats though. Look, every match you extrapolate through increases your margin of error. So if you're extrapolating through 1 match (i.e. there's a rematch a couple days later) you'd expect very similar results. Go through 2 matches and your error increases, 3 and it's even higher, and so on. If you're extrapolating 2 characters from opposites of the bracket through the champion, such that you're going to 6+ matches, even in 1v1 your error is beginning to grow large. In 4-ways extrapolating through 1 or 2 matches is okay, but extrapolating through 5 or 6 matches makes your error margin ruinously large.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

???

Big Boss won rather comfortably against Fox.

Also a quick look Mario was able to get 82.76% on Fox. I'm not expecting Falco to do any better.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

Argh, looks like Altair ends my perfect bracket today. Peaked at 6th though, so pretty happy with that.

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Buy him out, boys!

Pikachu/Dante/Leon/Ammy is still one of the weirdest, most inexplicable matches in contest history. If I had to blame anything, I'd blame the picture, but even then, it defies a simple explanation, I think. Dante beat Pikachu just fine once Leon was out of the poll (Sure, you add Luigi, but Pikachu has shown he can withstand LFF pretty well).

Looking at Pikachu's matches since then, they've actually been pretty consistent with that match. The Pikachu/Leon/Tidus/Vivi match looks more like an anomaly. Pikachu did pretty well in round 1 of 2007 too- he got 53.49% on Tidus with Isaac and Serge in the poll. Replacing Isaac and Serge with Leon and Vivi only moved Pikachu up to 53.69% on Tidus. So if there's any one match I'd call an anomaly there, it'd be Pikachu's round 2 match.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

I agree, a final list of x-stats for four-ways isn't nearly as accurate as a final list of x-stats for one-on-ones. That's not to say our stats for one-on-one contests are flawless though; remember that even though Ulti's laughing at four-way x-stats right now, he's also the original hater of x-stats from our one-on-one contests too. This year will also be worse for our x-stats than previous one-on-one contests too, between the extra round and half-day matches (not to mention all the likely SFF looming later in the contest)...

...which brings me to the obvious: the final x-stats can only be taken so seriously. Looking at the matches themselves -- in any format -- is just as good or better in every way for decision-making. Just because one-on-one x-stats let us look at a more accurate final list doesn't make looking at the individual matches any less important.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 1/23/2010 7:26:43 PM | #110
And yeah Ulti, I felt confident in Liquid > Altair, but I had been saying seeing both Altair and Ezio as two-seeds had me thinking they could each impress since before the lockdown...and nobody here that I know of counted on Altair to do this. I don't recall you arguing hard for Altair either, so I don't see why you're calling me out other than just wanting to call people out to prove some point.

If you look at the very next post I made, I said I wasn't going to brag in any way and that anyone saying this wasn't a tossup is a liar. My Oracle is 51% Altair, if you want more proof. It was just a funny quote.

The stats topic is my favorite place on the entire internet, and I meant it when I told you ages ago I'd try to never act like an ass in here again. Unless someone trolls, but that's a given.
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"Spoil FFX for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if Jecht's going to be another Auron or another Sin." -Soul on PW vs Jecht

Big Boss won rather comfortably against Fox.

...curses, you're right. Mixed them up.
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 1/23/2010 7:34:34 PM | #118
Ulti is really good about stating his opinions strongly, going quiet then speaking up if he's right and letting it die if he's wrong.

Don't even try singling me out for this, your post is a microcosm of how the entire stats topic community acts. And I wasn't quiet during Drake's loss, I picked it wrong and got rolled for 3 points.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif

Maybe it's because you're busy, but you are a lot more low-key than you use to be. Like I said you seem to only offer your opinions every now and then before disappearing, but that's probably because you have stuff to do rather than hiding. I missed over half this match because I had to write the PCAT and I was a major supporter for Liquid, bad timing I guess.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

I can't take the shame of losing a point because I changed changed to a loser, this sucks.
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Shakes Fist!

Eh, I changed to Liquid as well, but I don't feel bad about it. Partially because I went 2-1 with last minute changes, and partially because I had Vivi over the winner anyway.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 1/23/2010 8:33:23 PM | #146
Maybe it's because you're busy, but you are a lot more low-key than you use to be. Like I said you seem to only offer your opinions every now and then before disappearing, but that's probably because you have stuff to do rather than hiding.

It's more I decided to behave, to be honest. Plus I've been big in the picsmith topics.
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Lopen best poster ever? Yes.

You still called two people out by finding/saving their quotes right before that though (and looked for something on another) -- you can't bring it up like that, THEN say "I'm not going to be an ass about it" because you just were...! It wouldn't be much different if you reversed those posts.

Whatever though, I did say it and you already said you'd stop bragging after that, so I'll leave it at that.
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