GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 797

LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:18:49 PM | message detail
I love Yuna and Zack both though. I picked Yuna because I thought she was underrated and Zack was overrated, and I thought it was a worthwhile shot to take since it's just a 1-point match anyway. I honestly think it's wrong to completely discount Yuna's chances here. Maybe she loses easily, but the most reasoning I've seen from anyone other than red sox for that is "FFVII > FFX."
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:20:33 PM | message detail
Hmm....another angle on Luigi, to avoid FPF:

I took the round 2 match and gave 100% of Bowser's votes (yes, 100% to be as generous to Luigi as possible) to Luigi. Luigi then got 62.31% on Liquid, which using the current results gives Altair 45.38% on Luigi.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/23/2010 2:20:42 PM | message detail
The issue with Yuna is that we have nothing reliable on her either. On 2k8, she wasn't in the bracket. On 2k7, she had to ride along with Monster Chief. On 2k6, she benefitted from Female Bracket weirdness. So that leaves us with...2k5 as the closest reliable year, where she wasn't too impressive. Considering that, I'll take Zack's Round 3 showing vs. Link over Yuna.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:22:12 PM | message detail
Yeah, Leon I actually have to agree that Yuna's chances are not zero. She always had that really impressive match against Zelda where she almost equaled Aeris, and 55% on Alucard looks a lot better now after Alucard/Magus.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:24:15 PM | message detail
Well, I think Zack/Yuna is a match that I think people are taking for granted just a little too much. I think Yuna gets undervalued and underrated the same way Rikku does. In 2005, she had to face 'roided Ganondorf, which isn't going to be a fair assessment of how she looks now.

We dismiss the female bracket as "weirdness" and don't take anything from it seriously mostly because of Samus/Tifa and Samus/Zelda, but I don't see any reason to discount Yuna's performance on Zelda that year, which was pretty good. If anyone should have overperformed in that match, it would've been Zelda and not Yuna.

In 2007, Yuna admittedly didn't look the greatest, but I'm not depending on her to be a near elite to win. I just don't think Zack's as strong as everyone else does. Altair doing as well as he is right now does make Zack look a little better, but we'll see.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:25:34 PM | message detail
Ignoring Phoenix and giving 80% of Bowser's votes to Luigi and 20% to Liquid.....

...gives Luigi 56.72% on Liquid, and gives Altair 52.03% on Luigi.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:26:08 PM | message detail
Ignoring Phoenix

BLASPHEMY
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:28:07 PM | message detail
And based on how Cloud did in 2006 after Sephiroth was eliminated, Luigi probably gets more than 80% and Liquid almost definitely gets less than 20% of those votes. I'd say he and Phoenix probably split those evenly, and if anything, Phoenix gets a larger cut because he's on the DS.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:29:00 PM | message detail
Ok, good, I think that round 2 comparison satisfies me that if there was FPF in the round 1 match, it wasn't a huge amount.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:29:15 PM | message detail
Actually, probably not more than 80%. My math was wrong, but Liquid certainly wouldn't get a larger cut than Wrighto.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:31:50 PM | message detail
And based on how Cloud did in 2006 after Sephiroth was eliminated, Luigi probably gets more than 80% and Liquid almost definitely gets less than 20% of those votes. I'd say he and Phoenix probably split those evenly, and if anything, Phoenix gets a larger cut because he's on the DS.

Luigi probably gets more than 4 times what Liquid gets from Bowser, but that's okay. I wouldn't take Altair to beat Luigi anyway, and by the time this poll is over, Altair may be pushing for 53% in that comparison. Luigi would probably also not get close to 100% of Bowser's votes, so that would predict Luigi/Altair to be a fairly close match.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/23/2010 2:32:56 PM | message detail
Luigi would beat Altair 60-40. What is with you today red sox.

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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:33:42 PM | message detail
Blame the math, not me. I was generous enough to give Luigi 100% of Bowser's votes, and Altair was still projected to break 45%!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:34:16 PM | message detail
Let's try to find something to talk about with tomorrow's matches!

Fact/Fiction: Mario scores the blowout of the contest against Falco (At least the blowout of round 1, if not the contest)
Fact/Fiction: Big Boss triples Edgeworth
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:34:44 PM | message detail
Fact
Fact

boring day tomorrow
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XxSoulxX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:34:57 PM | message detail
This is what happens when you argue with stats and not with logic.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:35:07 PM | message detail
I think I'll just spend tomorrow staring at the Big Boss/Edgeworth pic.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:35:26 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #066
This is what happens when you argue with stats and not with logic.


Yes, because these things are always mutually exclusive.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/23/2010 2:35:49 PM | message detail
Are you assuming a constant Liquid or something

Why would you do that

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:36:54 PM | message detail
In fact, why are we judging anything based off of Liquid?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:38:35 PM | message detail
Yes, those numbers are assuming a constant Liquid- what else would you assume? As for what I would predict though, if I were assuming a constant Liquid, I would actually take Altair over Luigi, since the reality should be closer to the 80-20 split than the the 100-0 split. And this is the round 2 match, so there's no FPF excuse here. But I wouldn't actually take Altair, though I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he won.

And if you want to say that common sense should override stats here......I would like to remind you of Squall/Luigi.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
XxSoulxX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:39:17 PM | message detail
Yes, because these things are always mutually exclusive.

You're right, but when you use stats in lieu of logic to try to make sense of things, you just end up looking bad.

Liquid was a freak last year, and he's dropped down to his regular self this year. Altair boosted because of AC2. That's using logic, and it explains this match pretty well. Using the stats to try and prove that Altair would now beat Kirby or that Luigi has fallen because of this match is incredibly stupid in my eyes, since you can't use Liquid or Altair as constants from the last contest.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/23/2010 2:39:23 PM | message detail
...you are using a constant Liquid

Ooooookay, moving right along

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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:41:06 PM | message detail
How much do you think Liquid fell this year then? Would he 60-40 his former self? Even that big a drop would still leave Altair well north of 40% on Luigi.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
XxSoulxX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:41:07 PM | message detail
And if you want to say that common sense should override stats here......I would like to remind you of Squall/Luigi.

Why would you remind me of that? It's pretty obvious that Squall is stronger than Luigi.
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:41:42 PM | message detail
Why would you remind me of that? It's pretty obvious that Squall is stronger than Luigi.

Tell that to this board in 2003.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/23/2010 2:42:27 PM | message detail
I forgot about this, but it looks as though any chance for Bayonetta being the strongest character of this generation has gone flying out the window. Sad.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:42:36 PM | message detail
How much do you think Liquid fell this year then? Would he 60-40 his former self? Even that big a drop would still leave Altair well north of 40% on Luigi.

I don't care about stats like that. Luigi would beat Altair pretty handily (60-40 actually sounds about right). That's all that matters here.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:43:19 PM | message detail
Tell that to this board in 2003.

Good thing it's not 2003 and that we're arguing for matches happening now, and not back then.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:44:23 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #077
I forgot about this, but it looks as though any chance for Bayonetta being the strongest character of this generation has gone flying out the window. Sad.


soap > bayonetta imo
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:46:31 PM | message detail
Well, I think I'm pretty much done with this argument. I'm frankly astonished at how much people are willing to defend Luigi while Altair is at 58.5% here, and the only good argument I heard defending him was the First Place Factor thing.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 3:10:09 PM | message detail
Wow, what the hell. Liquid doing so badly here wasn't even my biggest surprise today.

I woke up today to find that my "neutered male" guinea pig, Snickers, was a female after all. There was a stillborn in the "boy's" cage.

If you'll excuse me, I have a vet to go murder.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/23/2010 3:12:55 PM | message detail
Snickers vs. Liquid Snake who ya got?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 3:13:24 PM | message detail
Snakes prey on rodents more than any other type of animal.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 3:15:19 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #077
I forgot about this, but it looks as though any chance for Bayonetta being the strongest character of this generation has gone flying out the window. Sad.


Bayonetta no chance against Lightning
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 3:16:58 PM | message detail
Oh yeah I forgot about Lightning. She's stronger then Bayonetta could be at her peak without a game even out!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 3:26:03 PM | message detail
By the way, who's our strongest character from the last gen? Auron? Dante? Sora?
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 3:27:05 PM | message detail
Auron for now, probably. Eventually it'll probably be Sora though.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
paulg235 | Posted 1/23/2010 3:27:12 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #087
By the way, who's our strongest character from the last gen? Auron? Dante? Sora?


Either Auron or Sora. Dante's weaker than Kirby.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/23/2010 3:27:18 PM | message detail
I'm siding with Auron at this point.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/23/2010 3:30:42 PM | message detail

From: paulg235 | #089
Either Auron or Sora. Dante's weaker than Kirby.


Very unlikely. Dante put up almost 47% on Kirby in 2008, and that was despite Leon and Chief in the poll (Chief might not hurt Dante any more than Kirby, but he definitely gives Kirby more Stand Out Factor). Until he took steroids and beat Sonic/Seph, almost every piece of evidence we've seen in the last few years suggests Dante would take Kirby, and probably without much trouble.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/23/2010 3:32:17 PM | message detail
Although I hope you're right. The weaker Dante is, the less I regret that Ryu>Dante pick oh god.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 1/23/2010 3:33:42 PM | message detail
Yoshi beat Dante when he didn't have much for him, and of course the rat beat Dante as well. I'd choose Kirby to beat Dante without thinking too much about it.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/23/2010 3:34:46 PM | message detail
yes YES YEEEESss
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/23/2010 3:41:49 PM | message detail
I dunno. I'd take Dante. I'm convinced Leon had something to do with most of his losses, but it'd be close.
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Japago | Posted 1/23/2010 3:44:04 PM | message detail
I'd give Dante a shot against Kirby. Wasn't Brawl hype at it's peak that year he lost to Yoshi? Leon beat down the Rat pretty easily too the round before, so I wouldn't put to much stock on Pikachu > Dante. Something weird happened there.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 1/23/2010 3:46:56 PM | message detail
I originally blamed Leon for the Pikachu/Dante match, but then last time we got Dante/Leon/Riku and Riku fell flat on his face.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/23/2010 3:48:06 PM | message detail
Yeah but that's Riku. Who knows what happened to that guy. I'm not even 100% convinced he beats Falcon.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 3:49:30 PM | message detail
Dante/Kirby would be an interesting match, especially because of ertyu. Not sure who I'd pick to win.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 3:50:05 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #099
Dante/Kirby would be an interesting match, especially because of ertyu. Not sure who I'd pick to win.


imagine the board vote
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