GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 797
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 1:09:32 PM | message detail |
Live the creed. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Poll Start Times*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man. Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ GENESIC EMERALD TAGER BUSTAAAAAAAAAAH |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 1:12:44 PM | message detail |
GrrrrLIQUIIIIDDDDDD --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 1:55:44 PM | message detail |
Luigi (2007c) has a strength of 29.78 against Base Link. Amaterasu (2007c) has a strength of 19.81 against Base Link. Luigi 66.74% 91,237 Amaterasu 33.26% 45,469 TOTAL VOTES 136,706 Luigi wins with 66.74% of the vote! A 45,768 vote margin of victory. --- "Not everybody is a perfect person in the world. Everyone kills people, murder people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever." -Ohio State |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 1:55:54 PM | message detail |
From the last topic: Yeah, I'm not sure why everyone is so insistent that Ocelot didn't boost with MGS4. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 1:56:06 PM | message detail |
Luigi > Crono aw yeah let's do this --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 1:56:35 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #004 This is an easy one. C'mon now. Jill Valentine. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 1:56:49 PM | message detail |
Maybe because he lost to jill after beating her pre mgs4? --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 1:57:25 PM | message detail |
I've
just spent several hours hearing about how last year's Luigi/Liquid
match is meaningless, and now you tell me we're supposed to take
Jill/Ocelot seriously? --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 1:57:35 PM | message detail |
There is a definitive MGS/RE overlap, plus it's one of those weird matches that you can't explain. No point in even trying. --- How does it feel when all you're counting on is scatterbrained? |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/23/2010 1:57:38 PM | message detail |
What
do you mean by that? The fact that Ocelot lost to Jill after MGS4? I
think it's pretty much universally agreed that those 2 matches don't
make any sense, and to try and base any arguments off of them is
moronic. There could have been any number of factors to explain it,
Cloud SFFing Jill harder than Ocelot, Kratos SFFing Ocelot harder than
Jill, MGS' hardcore fanbase making a bigger difference in the match
with less votes (because Cloud was eating up 2/3 of the votes) There's definitely something weird involved in the two Jill/Ocelot matches, but it wouldn't surprise me if Jill had boosted a bit just from having a new game released for her franchise...especially one which had her fate as a big hook, IIRC. It should have been enough to reverse her loss to Ocelot, wouldn't it? --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 1:57:51 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #008 Tell me what makes Jill/Ocelot meaningless. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 1:58:44 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/23/2010 4:57:51 PM | #011 It happened in a 4way contest. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ WHAT'S THE MATTER, SCARED?? |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 1/23/2010 1:58:54 PM | message detail |
Like
I said in the last topic, there are a variety of explanations for that.
Cloud and Jill have a lot more in common than Ocelot and Cloud. Kratos
and Ocelot have more in common than Jill and Kratos. MGS' cheatingly
hardcore fanbase had a smaller votal to deal with the first time. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 1:58:56 PM | message detail |
I'm not the one who said to take nothing from Luigi/Liquid! But as far as Jill/Ocelot goes, by now it's pretty clear that Resident Evil boosted. So Ocelot could have still boosted, just less than Jill did. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/23/2010 1:59:23 PM | message detail |
Luigi got 66% on Meta-Knight, and last year Ryu got 58%. I'll grant you some SFF, but I think that looks pretty good. If there was no SFF, using that and Crono/Ryu projects Luigi to beat Crono with 52%. Obviously that's not the case, but I'm still feeling the "pretty good" zone. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 1:59:33 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #012 Blah blah blah You keep saying that, but it doesn't make it any less nonsensical. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:00:19 PM | message detail |
I honestly would pick Luigi > Crono 1v1 these days. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:01:02 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/23/2010 4:59:33 PM | #016 Oh really? I'm sure last year had nothing to do with why you and 80% of the other gurus picked Liquid today. --- "I want to crawl into a hole and die every time I read a lihlih post." -FFDragon |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:01:15 PM | message detail |
who wouldn't outside of Reddy? --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/23/2010 2:01:37 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 1/23/2010 5:00:19 PM | #017 WHOA WHOA WHOA, Weegee 2k3like overestimation ITT. He's good, but Crono is a cut above Luigi in all hours except the ASV. You'd have to stick them in a day match and hope Crono's ASV is just pathetic for Luigi to have a shot. In the night, it'd be a slaughter. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:02:03 PM | message detail |
Man, I wish Zack vs. Luigi had been set up in this bracket. So much. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/23/2010 2:02:48 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 1/23/2010 5:02:03 PM | #021 That could be a potentially awesome match, yeah. Player Two vs. Black Haired Cloud, who ya got? --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:03:23 PM | message detail |
In
a night match, sure. But you can't tell me Magus, Frog and Chrono
Trigger crapping all over themselves of late doesn't affect Crono
himself. That Sonic match was the beginning of the end for him, and
CTDS did nothing to help. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ GENESIC EMERALD TAGER BUSTAAAAAAAAAAH |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 1/23/2010 2:03:35 PM | message detail |
I
have a feeling Luigi is going to be disappointing this year. His
improvement last year is very weird when you look at the rest of the
Nintendo characters jobbing. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:03:48 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #018 60% of the Gurus had Liquid. The 4-way stats are no more or less infallible than 1-on-1 stats are. They both have errors. It's just that you don't always catch them until the year after, like with Liquid. Going by the 4-way stats has me a top ten Oracle ranking right now and 15/16 points. That's not too shabby. That, and there's a whole lot more you have to wade through to make sense of 4-ways, but that just comes with the territory. Just laughing off 4-ways and acting like they mean nothing is basically willful ignorance. A lot of things we learned from 4-ways have carried over to this contest. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:04:41 PM | message detail |
His improvement last year is very weird when you look at the rest of the Nintendo characters jobbing. What improvement last year? He had one bad match against Liquid and then got fed to Mario. This strength people think he has derive from his 2007 performance. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:04:49 PM | message detail |
But Luigi didn't "improve," per se. 2006 stats already had Luigi, Yoshi, and Bowser in the same general range. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/23/2010 2:06:22 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 1/23/2010 5:03:23 PM | #023 It definitely does, but assuming he's suffering a drop akin to Sonic's is far too harsh. It's debatable whether Crono is stronger than Squall and Vincent anymore, but he beats everyone below comfortably unless the match is stacked against him. I'd take Luigi to get close there, but no closer than a 53-47 victory in favor of Crono. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
TheOceIot | Posted 1/23/2010 2:06:52 PM | message detail |
Speaking of Crono, how close do you think his match with Yoshi will be? --- http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/8159/boxarts2.jpg |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:07:02 PM | message detail |
Liquid
isn't an error, he did fine last year. The site is simply shifting
Western and a lot of people are holding on to outdated norms for no
real reason. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ You've really become... quite an inconvenience for me. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:07:21 PM | message detail |
Altair is getting like 60%+ every update now, and even a few 63% and 64%s. He is loving him some ASV. He might still hit 60% --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/23/2010 2:07:32 PM | message detail |
Crono wins, but he's embarrassed by Yoshi getting in the 55-45 range IMO. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:07:35 PM | message detail |
From: TheOceIot | #029 50.27% win for Yoshi --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:08:35 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #030 There is always the possibility that Liquid is an error. That's just how he rolls. Simply saying this is a "Western shift" doesn't explain this whatsoever. It doesn't turn what should have been 58/42 for Liquid last year into 58/42 for Altair this year. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:08:57 PM | message detail |
The
error margin on 4-way stats is far far higher than on 1v1 stats. It's
high enough that the final extrapolated standings are just about
meaningless. You can still look at individual matches and extrapolate
through them and get decent results, true, but it's not close to 1v1,
where the final standings will give you pretty accurate results. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:09:08 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #034 Why not? --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:09:13 PM | message detail |
From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 1/23/2010 5:07:21 PM | #031 Who goes to school on Saturday? --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ This was a triumph. |
Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 1/23/2010 2:09:18 PM | message detail |
Speaking of Crono, how close do you think his match with Yoshi will be? Crono will get between 48-50% on Yoshi. --- Oh, sorry, I got distracted by KrahenProphet. http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=99 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:09:44 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #037 japanese --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:09:51 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 1/23/2010 5:08:57 PM | #035 Ergo, 4way stats are virtually meaningless. Oh what am I saying? L-BLOCK TO WIN HIS SECOND CONTEST IN THREE YEARS. --- I'll attract the enemy with my *human* call.... I'M SO WASTED, I'M SO WASTED!! |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/23/2010 2:11:40 PM | message detail |
And Leon, you're a big MGS fan and picked the two MGS 15 seeds in tossup matches. There's no shame at all in admitting this. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ You and me could write a bad romance. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:11:52 PM | message detail |
Those
flukes exist in 1-on-1 as well (hey there Magus), but they usually
don't turn out to be as drastic. Doing the whole "They were wrong once
so they're always wrong" schtick is kinda dumb. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:11:54 PM | message detail |
Anyway,
Altair is doing way better now then he was just 2 hours ago, so there
is something going on. It seems like ASV trends to me but whatever --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:13:10 PM | message detail |
Liquid looked like balls in 2007. 4-way stats saved. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/23/2010 2:13:11 PM | message detail |
I'm the biggest MGS fan and I got both the 2/15 matches wrong so far this year (and picked Red vs Ocelot). What does that say about me? --- turnturnturn your brain in http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:13:56 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #041 But I'm not a big fan of The Boss or Liquid. I still picked Red > Ocelot even though Red turned out to be what I thought he would, and I eventually did switch to Sephiroth > Snake. I picked The Boss and Liquid because I was convinced they would win based off of past matches and a little luck (Drake was a wild card, admittedly). Fanboyism had little to do with it. Picking Tidus > Sub-Zero has a ring of fanboyism to it. If I weren't a Tidus fanboy, I'd have probably picked Subby. These two matches, not so much. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:15:51 PM | message detail |
I
have no problem admitting that I always pick the CT character when I
think they have a chance at winning. And with me, that often includes
matches where most people think it's not just unlikely but impossible. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/23/2010 2:16:28 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #046 Don't forget Yuna > Zack too! --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/23/2010 2:17:30 PM | message detail |
Now, Snake > Sephiroth, that's probably
a fanboy pick... but hey, so was Cloud > Snake last year! I wanna
see how Altair stacks up next round (not to mention seeing how Snake
himself does) before throwing in the towel on that. --- turnturnturn your brain in http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/23/2010 2:17:58 PM | message detail |
...that's right, Cloud > Snake was a fanboy pick. Those wacky FF7 fans. --- turnturnturn your brain in http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
