GameFAQs Contests

The even more early edition.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!

http://blog.enterpriseitplanet.com/green/blog/blogpost_img/picard_facepalm.jpg
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Umm... Why?
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream

Well, since 795 was posted when 794 only had 350 post, I figured that these topics must fill up quickly. I'm just helping the community!
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!

http://www.starpulse.com/news/media/tears.jpg
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename

Super Smash Bros. Tier List

Top Tier

Melee Fox
Melee Marth
Melee Falco
Melee Sheik

Good Tier

Melee Jigglypuff
Melee Samus
Melee Ice Climbers
Melee Captain Falcon

Mediocre Tier

Other Melee Characters

Bad Tier

Melee Mewtwo
Melee Pichu
Brawl Meta-Knight

Kefka/Magus/Shadow Tier

Other Brawl Characters
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Lucas Tier

Biolizard28
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Not Wylvane

Gonna need this soon.
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http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflarchive.php?year=2009&team=IND&gameid=54609

From: Not_Wylvane | #007
Lucas Tier

Biolizard28

Cue Cue
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!

How can DK lose to Vivi?I mean every character that is in Smash Brothers isn't automatically a very popular one?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

That only works for Melee. Also Vivi is popular too.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

How can DK lose to Vivi?I

less votes

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch

Does there exist a Square hierarchy?
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.

DK is lucky he's keeping this at around the same percentages from 2004. Neither has done much of anything since then really. DK has released a load of bad games no one cares about and Vivi appeared in KH2. I expected DK to lose by at least a 58-42 percentage given that alone. But more or less, their strengths seem to be unchanged.

At least against one another.

Still confident with Vivi > whoever
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:>

A hierarchy in games or characters?
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:>

games, but I guess that would influence characters a fair bit, wouldn't it?
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.

A bit, yes. But despite FFVII being much stronger than FFX, very few people think Aerith has a hope in hell against Auron.

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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy Tactics, Ocarina of Time, Final Fantasy IX

not really otherwise FF VI wouldn't be so crap.
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Shakes Fist!

I don't feel it exists. FF7 will obviously be looked at as "the strongest", but Aeris would almost surely be defeated by Squall and Auron at the least, maybe others. With Squall/Auron being near Vincent strength, it's hard to say there's any sort of hierarchy games wise.

All that can be said for sure is the only near-elites come from FFVII, FFVIII and FFX.
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:>

Aren't you forgetting about Kingdom Hearts and Chrono Trigger?
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.

My mind just jumped to Final Fantasy, whoops >_>

Even then though, CT has looked terribly weak. I'll reserve judgement until I see Crono perform, but unless he really manages to suck it would seem like CT is all but dead except Crono. As for KH, Sora has been the only one to ever be of any actual high-midcard value.
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:>

Ranked by characters of decent strength:

1. FFVII - Cloud, Sephiroth, Vincent, Tifa, Zack, Aeris, Cid (?), Zolom.
2. Kingdom Hearts - Sora, Riku, Roxas, Axel.
3. FFX - Auron, Tidus, Yuna.
4. FFVIII - Squall.
5. Chrono Trigger - Crono.
6. Final Fantasy IX - Vivi.
7. The rest.

Just going by characters, I'd switch KH and FFX, since I'd pick Auron over Sora, Tidus over Riku, and Yuna over Roxas and Axel, though if you include the FF characters I can see it being ahead since it's a big factor for the strengths of characters like Squall and Auron. I'd also switch FF8 and CT, since I don't have any confidence that Zell or Seifer or Laguna would be stronger than Frog at this point and for all we know Crono could still beat Squall in a match (that would be a pretty badass match), but other than that I agree with that ranking.
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Not Wylvane

I still say there is no real hierarchy within the square clan, i mean one year Vincent may beat Squall, but replay the match today and Squall can win and a few years back how many would pick Zack over Aeris? or Yuna for that matter.
They just juggle around and nothing is clearly definite except for cloud and sephiroth squashing the rest.
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Shakes Fist!

Why would you put Zolom so high. Isn't he a joke?
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Denzo wasn't ranking the games, just the characters.
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:>

I still think Zolom could have strength, he would have dominated Jill and Ocelot for sure if Cloud wasn't hanging around in 07. I wish he could get another chance someday to see if people really do vote for anything FF7.

When did Zack > Aerith become a popular pick?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake

From: charmander6000 | #028
When did Zack > Aerith become a popular pick?

I have a hard time believing Aerith could duplicate the run Zack had last year, myself.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

When Aeris hasn't impressed in years while 2008 was all GameZAQs.
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Not Wylvane

Not to mention that Aeris hasn't done much of anything notable ever since 2006.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Plus Aeris is famous for her spoiler.

Zack is famous for being awesome as balls.
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Not Wylvane

Zack is famous for his spoiler too.
Only it was a different moveset.
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Shakes Fist!

No one cares or talks about Zack's spoiler, though. Even though his spoiler is much more awesome.
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Not Wylvane

I care, because it was so frigging hardcore to play and setup Cloud from cowardly lameass to becoming a character i liked, then advent children came and ruined everything, then advent children complete came and all was well.
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Shakes Fist!

Lets hope DK can get this under 56%. He should at the current pace.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Why would we hope for that?
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:>

The worse Vivi looks, the better chance of a good 2nd round match for Vivi vs. Liquid/Altair
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

There was a discussion on poll start times. I have some info on that on the Facts and Trivia page:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/47

If any of the info is wrong, email me.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

C'mon, Vivi! Match your 2004 percentage!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

In regards to the times with question marks, Sp2004 was 3AM and 2008 was 12AM.
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"I'm a coward... A coward who cannot even defy orders he knows he ought not follow ..."--Cecil Harvey Yesmar

If this was a 24 hour match, then DK likely would do better then 6 years ago, due to the day vote.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Man. These guys haven't changed one iota since 2004, have they?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Boost + Deboost = 0
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Man. These guys haven't changed one iota since 2004, have they?

Nope.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Chaos Division: Round 1 - Match 16 – (2) Altair vs. (15) Liquid Snake

Moltar’s Analysis

Altair
After wading through a bunch of crap last year, let’s see Altair deal with some real competition.

Liquid Snake
Liquid looked really good last year. Was it because of SFF, or ha-I’M YOU! I’M YOU SHADOW!

So again we have a popular casual character going against a MGS character. Again, I’m siding with the MGS character. Liquid is no “The Boss”, in fact, I’d say he’s a step above her. His 2008 Round 1 performance (his only “clean” match”) was very good, while Altair…actually I’d rather not even talk about Division 1.

Unless Assassin’s Creed II made people go back to AC1 and gave Altair a huge boost, Liquid’s taking this match. He’s gone toe-to-toe with Alucard and put up strong numbers on Luigi. Give me that over losing to Duke Nukem anyday. Altair will probably keep it close since a day match benefits him, but in the end, Liquid should end up on top.

Moltar’s Bracket: Liquid > Altair

Moltar’s Prediction: Altair: 48% - Liquid: 52%



Lopen’s Analysis

In MGS4, Snake cosplays as Altair for fun. That's good enough for Liquid and so he's gonna unleash the full onslaught upon BROTHERRRR for taking all the superior genes, or something.

Yeah I dunno. This match is a mixed bag. Mostly cause of Liquid. Has there ever been as inconsistent a dude as Liquid Snake? I think he's constantly debating whether he wants to look great to overshadow BROTHER, or he wants to underperform so he can whine about gene pools.

Altair, meanwhile, lost (or came close to it) to Duke Nukem. Doesn't exactly scream strength. Pretty sure even the weakest version of Liquid takes this guy down. But he's not totally weak, and AC2 probably helps. But how much? He's not even the starring character in it, so...?

Yeah I dunno. Could see either one coming out of this one the victor-- and don't see either one winning by too much (though Liquid has the higher ceiling), but with last year in consideration (Liquid did well in Mario land) I went with the safe pick here.

Lopen's prediction:
Liquid Snake with 53.97%



Transience’s Analysis

This match is a little bit unsettling. From any logical standpoint, Liquid Snake wins and wins easily. Dude put up like 47% on Luigi legitimately last year and then beat him outright thanks to a fanbase split. Zack Fair would have a hard time matching that, and he destroyed the guy that beat Altair.

There's something about Altair that kind of scares me though. I think AC2 helped him out a lot even if he wasn't in it. The AC brand name is getting stronger. Altair's character design is still top notch, the exact kind of thing that GameFAQs gets into. Uncharted 2 may top Assassin's Creed, but Drake will never beat Altair and that design is the reason. Altair gets overestimated bigtime because he beat the hell out of some overrated characters (protip: Lucario is weak as hell), but I think AC2 makes up for a lot of his shortcomings.

I'm picking Liquid Snake here because I usually make the logical pick, but there's something worrisome about Altair. This being a day match doesn't help things.

transience's prediction: Liquid Snake with 56.89%

Ngamer’s Analysis

Hey hey, pretty nice showing from my boy DK tonight! Sure he's getting crushed here in the dead hours, but people were so down on him that that I was thinking Vivi might start at 56 and rocket up from there (looks like instead he only managed 53 in the opening minutes). Of course knowing DK he'll probably find a way to continue losing percentage the entire match, so maybe my 59% won't be so far off in the end... Well regardless of how far he falls, here's hoping Vivi knocks off whoever wins later today to help him look better in the stats! And he should have a good chance at doing so, since R2 will once again be a *goes to check* wait, DAY match? Crap!

Speaking of which, today's battle is one I've had circled on my calendar for quite some time. However, looking through the Oracle topic a bit ago, I saw an entire landfill of picks like "Liquid 55/56", and even some heading into the 58 range! What the heck, guys? I could have sworn we were talking about the character who couldn't manage 56% on Lavos, got tripled by the weakest Sephiroth ever, was nearly doubled by Yuna, caved to Alucard by 6% once competition arrived, and beat out Big Daddy by a whopping 72 votes. Alright fine, so I'll admit he looked okay in 2008, but then again so did Altair- I assumed we could all agree that was because they both drew ideal matchups for a couple rounds, but apparently not.

I guess the case for Liquid is that he's got to be stronger than The Boss, and since she dispatched of fellow #2 seed Nathan Drake, L. Snake ought to be able to do the same with THIS ARM tied behind his back. I see a few problems with that line of thought:

* Nathan's a generically named, generic-looking action hero from a PS3 exclusive- not exactly a perfect threat to entrap an indifferent casual voter. "Altair" sounds sweet and he sports one of the coolest character designs around while facing off against arguably the least photogenic character in history. *remembers Kefka* okay, so second worst
* Europe is crazy about MSG; too bad this is a Day Match, making it a perfect opportunity for Altair to turn on those casual 360 ASV boosters almost right from the opening whistle
* as a Playstation-exclusive character, you probably don't want to be messing around with the Metal Gear Solid series. I think Altair's many millions in 360 sales provide a slight edge that Drake badly needed

Which is not to say that Altair has this one "locked up" or anything- on the contrary I'm expecting a very exciting match, maybe even something along the lines of Red/Ocelot. This talk of Liquid in an easy 55+ Ulti blowout though- you guys are nuts! (Did I happen to mention that this character failed at posting 56% on Lavos? Seriously now.) In a photo finish, give me...

Ngamer Says: Altair > Liquid Snake, 50.04%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Liquid Snake looked mighty impressive last year. Outright beating Luigi and getting fairly close to MMX/Mario. Which is weird because in every other contest showing he's had previously, he's never really been all that tough. On the other side, Altair rocked his first 4-pack last year, but really left us wondering where he lied because on paper, going even with Duke Nukem doesn't seem that impressive.

This match will probably confirm whatever Drake/The Boss showed us (writing this before that match) about how much casual influence is going to matter. I do think Altair is going to be stronger than his incarnation last year, and Liquid is, in all likelihood, going to be weaker. Whether it's enough to close the obvious gap in strengths remains to be seen, but I'd wager yes. I've got a fair bit (read: like 3 matches woohoo) riding on casual guys impressing this contest, and this is one of them. I'm not extremely confident in my pick here, but I doubt regret making it. Yet.


Bracket: Altair
Favorites: Liquid Snake
Prediction: Altair with 54.33%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Altair was the Guru nomination last year, and he performed pretty well, crushing Lucario and Isaac before losing narrowly to Duke Nukem. He also beat Marth in round 2, which establishes him as having some strength. Meanwhile, Liquid impressed greatly, breaking 45% on Luigi in round 1. That should make Liquid the clear favorite, but Assassin’s Creed 2 came out and made this match more difficult. It gave Altair and Ezio 2-seeds, and you can probably expect a decent sized boost for Altair.

Before the contest, I was greatly tempted to take Altair, but I stuck with Liquid, and after seeing the Boss, another MGS character, beat Drake, another 2-seed from a recent Western game, I am glad I kept Liquid. Ocelot did very nicely against Red too, so as of today I feel Liquid is a fairly heavy favorite in this match. This is a day match, which should help Altair, but probably not by enough to give him the win.

Prediction: Liquid Snake with 53%
Upset Potential: 10%
Upper Bound: Liquid with 57%
Lower Bound: Altair with 51%



Guest’s Analysis - Yesmar

This was probably the hardest match of the first round to call for me, since there a million different factors that could go into this match and could make it go in favor of both characters. Don't be fooled by the seedings, this could be anyone's game.

First of all, one should look at both of their performances from 2008. Sure Altair did pretty well, but at most he was a low end midcarder. He made the 3rd Round, but he only had to beat fodder line/SFFd characters to do it. Duke got 22% against Link in the 3rd Round which don't get me wrong is pretty good, but also confusing coming from someone who had been fodder/fodderline in every contest up to then. It's not like Duke Nukem Forever is getting funnier or anything. And despite his decent numbers, I can't put much faith in someone who barely lost to Nukem, even if it was after the release of some XBLA game for Duke. On the other hand, Liquid went out and gave Luigi a good fight, even before SFF came into play, and definetly appeared to be the more popular of the two in that particular year. However, since then things have changed. Liquid doesn't have the benefit of being in a recent game anymore, but Altair has the advantage of his design (a huge part of his popularity probably) staying forever, and the Assassin's Creed brand building up in popularity. While Liquid has reasons to drop, Altair will very likely remain in roughly the same position. However, despite all this, if the match was 24 hours I would probably still take Liquid. However, fortunately for Altair, it is not.

This match happens to be held during the latter portion of the day when day vote characters like Altair tend to flourish. And if you don't believe me about Altair being a day vote beast, look at his second match from 2008. Adjusted for vote inflation/deflation it's one of the biggest comebacks of all time, and shows that despite the weakness of some other M-rated game characters, he owns the day. Now, I do think that people will eventually figure out the 2 matches a day thing and will vote in both and so far they appear to be doing so, but this match is within the first week of the contest, and people are still getting into the swing of things. Knuckles/Cecil had an ASV. Why can't this one?

But wait, there's more. Due to Bacon's inability to tell time, the contest started on Saturday the 16th instead of Friday the 15th, as originally intended. This means that Altair/Liquid will actually take place on a weekend, where the ASV is diluted throughout the day. This could be the break that Liquid needs, and it could give him the victory, although it should be of note that in Liquid's R1 match in 07, he wasn't too great with the latter half of a weekend match, and that casual characters like Ryu H. and Master Chief (more in tune with Altair's fans probably) have good latter halves on the weekends as well. This match really is a mystery, and I'll side with Altair on this one, although honestly, it could be anyone's game.

But wait, there's even MORE. I had written the whole previous write up before the contest had even started, and now that it has begun, we've been having upsets or near upsets left and right. If the contest voters have become more cynical and anti-establishment as these results imply than this throws the ball back into Liquid's court, and I have no choice to go against my bracket and choose Liquid for this one.

Yesmar's Prediction:
Liquid Snake with 51.06%



Crew Consensus: While we have some Altair supporters, Liquid is the majority pick.

And looking at all the hierarchy discussion, there's no such thing as a Square hierarchy. Or at least, a "hierarchy" is nothing more than a list of the characters by their strengths.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....