GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 795

Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/22/2010 10:43:11 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #449
Vivi should increase during the night. Definitely hitting 55%, maybe 56% would be pushing his limits. I don't see see any reason for DK to slow him down there, outside of the BSV for a couple of hours.

I'm still more than confident Vivi can take care of Liquid or Altair.


As I stated earlier, Vivi dropped 1.5% from this time to Noon in the 2004 match. So theres a reason to expect DK to slow him down.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 1/22/2010 10:43:19 PM | message detail
Going by 2004, the match hasn't even started yet >_>
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 1/22/2010 10:44:02 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
13------100--------84.0000000
12------751--------80.2929427
11------2480------78.7500000
10------4663------77.4823075
9--------5736------76.8479777
8--------5012------74.7406225
7--------3348------71.0274791
6--------1832------65.0655022
5--------918--------60.0217865
4--------389--------54.2416452
3--------169--------44.3786982
2--------51----------35.2941176
1--------37----------16.2162162
0--------82----------0.0000000

The perfects do a bit better than everyone else again. 0s are perfect for the second time in a row.

8 people fell off the Top 50 today. JaiCSC, Dstry_Rbld_Rclm, Finalxflash, coromaster, Col_Zechs, KyleBlank, vgresearcher and tigger93 did not have GlaDOS beating Fawful.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/22/2010 10:44:21 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #452
Going by 2004, the match hasn't even started yet >_>


You sure? The updater site says 12 AM it started... but maybe it was 12 AM Pacific on the updater back then
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vcharon | Posted 1/22/2010 10:44:26 PM | message detail
As I stated earlier, Vivi dropped 1.5% from this time to Noon in the 2004 match. So theres a reason to expect DK to slow him down.

The problem with stats that are 6+ years old is that they're 6+ years old.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 1/22/2010 10:45:12 PM | message detail
I think it was pacific... Maybe not. I remember the contest right after that one(villains) had Pacific time matches. Maybe that's when it was implemented though
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/22/2010 10:48:48 PM | message detail
Yeah, the BB/ME-pic is balls-to-the-wall awesome.


DK...I'm not too surprised now that we've gotten away from the opening minutes. He'll continue to go down and be close to what he originally got in 2004. I'm not sure what we take from this though -- I thought Vivi/Liquid would be a close match before and this hasn't changed my mind yet. The only thing I figure right now is that Tidus/Sub-Zero will be closer than this thanks to Vivi >= Tidus and Sub-Zero >= MC >= DK between 2005 and 2007 and there's not much reason for Subz/Tidus to change since then. I figure Tidus would be the statistical favorite in that scenario plus he has Dissidia on his side now if that means anything, but this isn't a definitive way to decide the match by any means.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/22/2010 10:52:00 PM | message detail
Well according to the 2004 match, Vivi did well all night, but completely died in the morning... and DK had quite a few cuts at morning and cut nearly 2% from 6 am to noon
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/22/2010 10:52:55 PM | message detail
I love how people are calling the Edgey pic the best of the contest so far when it took me about 4 seconds to make. I love doing this stuff.
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swirIdude | Posted 1/22/2010 10:55:17 PM | message detail
It's a shame Edgeworth will get brutally beaten despite the awesome pic.
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Goose36963 | Posted 1/22/2010 11:00:34 PM | message detail
From: DaruniaTheGoron | #007
When did the contest haters start invading the stats topics?

We don't care about Link and Cloud winning, man. We're stat nerds. We care about shifting trends from year to year,


I don't hate the contest, by any means, I just think that other chars. can deserive the title of the winning the battle. Stats are great and it's a rough job to keep track of all the things that go on and you guys that are hardcore tracking stats have my respect. I'm was just stating that it always seems to be the same characters over and over. just out of curiosity who did you expect to win the Wesker vs. Ken? I voted for Ken on that one.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 1/22/2010 11:08:35 PM | message detail
I expected Ken to win, by a much larger margin.

And L-block did win. But why are you saying others "deserve" to win? They DON'T deserve to win. The people love Link. They're gonna keep voting for him. They love him so much that they keep voting for him despite him having won what.. 5 times? I know I'd vote for Link over pretty much every character no matter what (if the match is close I mean.. if know Solid Snake will lose the match I'll give him a pity vote because Snake is awesome).
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 11:09:36 PM | message detail
Most people here expected Ken to win easily, so that match was a surprise. I had Ken in my bracket and voted for Wesker.

As for Cloud and Link, they were dethroned by L-Block two years ago, but other than that, yeah, they've been our two most dominant guys.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/22/2010 11:12:43 PM | message detail
Based on pretty much all the information we had before Wesker/Ken, Ken should have pounded Wesker. We didn't know what RE5, SF4, and not having Ken since 2003 would mean exactly for the match though.
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ZFS | Posted 1/22/2010 11:13:05 PM | message detail
I expected Ken to rock Wesker hard the other day. Still can't believe that was as close as it was, especially after SFIV.

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/22/2010 11:25:17 PM | message detail
Perhaps Wesker beats Kefka now? It's not farfetched to think about since Kefka overperformed in that match due to match picture whilst underperforming in every other match for the same reason. How much stronger is FMV Clown Kefka compared to Lettuce Kefka as well as compared to Purple Kefka?

And, uh, why are people saying that FF9 isn't popular on this site? According to the x-stats, the game beats anything non-Japanese on this site.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 11:31:06 PM | message detail
Based on that match and Magus's, I really wouldn't be surprised. As Karma said earlier, RE5 was Wesker's first starring role as villain. Before, he was a very behind-the-scenes presence and was overshadowed in each of his games by the central villain (years ago, wasn't it weird to find out that Nemesis was stronger?). It's very possible that RE5 changed that.

Or maybe Ken is just terrible and Ryu is doomed against Dante. Who knows.
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vcharon | Posted 1/22/2010 11:32:32 PM | message detail
Well thanks to Dissidia, Kefka may finally have an arsenal of pics to use and can't blame his terrible performances on anything but his own strength.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 11:35:14 PM | message detail
Also, I hate (read: love) to bring this up, but perhaps Snake's presence caused Wesker to really underperform in 2008. Even if Ken is weaker than we all thought, it's hard to imagine the dude we saw yesterday worth a mere 20% on Snake.
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vcharon | Posted 1/22/2010 11:37:06 PM | message detail
Another prediction I'll make is that we won't see anyone break 80% due to this 12-hour format.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 11:38:27 PM | message detail
Mario drew a good opponent for 80%.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 1/22/2010 11:39:33 PM | message detail
Hmm. Random Question: Vivi or Rikku?
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vcharon | Posted 1/22/2010 11:40:47 PM | message detail
I'd say Rikku at this point. Vivi seems to be underperforming a bit against DK.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 11:41:23 PM | message detail
Vivi in bracket, rooting for Rikku.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/22/2010 11:47:26 PM | message detail
Cube broke 80%!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/22/2010 11:48:06 PM | message detail
Oh wait, no it didn't.

Huh, could have sword it ended with like 81.
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Janus5000 | Posted 1/22/2010 11:49:18 PM | message detail
If the Cube could have sword, it would have broken 80%!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/22/2010 11:51:17 PM | message detail
damnit
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 1/22/2010 11:57:34 PM | message detail
I'd go with Rikku.
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Night Pick: Vivi Day Pick: Liquid Snake
PegasusLover123 | Posted 1/22/2010 11:57:57 PM | message detail
So would you say that DK is doing better this contest than he did in the other one?
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/23/2010 12:01:51 AM | message detail
Well, Rikku barely outdid Tidus in 2005 against Kirby, and Vivi didn't exactly beat Tidus by much in 2007. It's hard to get much definitive there though...

...let's see, DK got 36.71% on Kirby in 2007. If we assume Vivi right now = Rikku based on this contest, Kirby currently gets 37.82% on DK. If Kirby didn't SFF DK and that relationship still stands, then Rikku should beat Vivi with 51.47%...but Vivi's going to continue improving over-night and Kirby likely did SFF DK...

...hmmm. I'll give Vivi the benefit of the doubt,
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/23/2010 12:01:55 AM | message detail
LOL Donkey Kong
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swirIdude | Posted 1/23/2010 12:07:54 AM | message detail
Kirby currently gets 37.82% on DK.

what

What?

WHAAAAAAT?!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/23/2010 12:25:52 AM | message detail
Mario drew a good opponent for 80%.

Cloud could break 80% since he has a night match and Ridley's worst time should be at night.
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KingBartz | Posted 1/23/2010 1:07:50 AM | message detail
Vivi at 56% now. I can see him getting up to 57% by morning.
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Contest score: 12/14 Today's picks: Vivi & Liquid Snake
vcharon | Posted 1/23/2010 1:10:22 AM | message detail
Good run here by Vivi to get back near a percentage he should be at.
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mario_pot | Posted 1/23/2010 1:13:58 AM | message detail
i'm posting in a 500 topic ALSO

vivi is gunna win
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 1/23/2010 2:19:16 AM | message detail
I never understood why Vivi was so popular, having never played FFIX. But I've just finished the first disk, and I absolutely adore the lil black mage. :)

Gotta say I'm a bit worried about my Vivi > Liquid pick now. Depends how he does later, o' course.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/23/2010 2:38:24 AM | message detail
I'll take Vivi slightly over Rikku, but it's close.

...By the by, how much does Rikku beat Knuckles with? I just find it hard to believe that Cecil is on their level if Rikku/Knuckles is a close match.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #467
Based on that match and Magus's, I really wouldn't be surprised. As Karma said earlier, RE5 was Wesker's first starring role as villain. Before, he was a very behind-the-scenes presence and was overshadowed in each of his games by the central villain (years ago, wasn't it weird to find out that Nemesis was stronger?). It's very possible that RE5 changed that.

Or maybe Ken is just terrible and Ryu is doomed against Dante. Who knows.


I speculated this early in the match myself. Maybe Snake just did some number to Wesker last year because this ain't the guy Vivi doubled last year. Either that, or Ken's in for a world of hurt against Ganondorf.

And matches started at 3 A.M. in 2004. The updater's numbers aren't in terms of the time of day, but in the length of the match.

And Vivi may match his 2004 performance yet!
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Agent M | Posted 1/23/2010 5:02:49 AM | message detail
I seriously didn't expect this to be virtually identical to their previous encounter. A testament to DK's streak of doing absolutely nothing noteworthy or impressive. Well, maybe noteworthy for being legendarily pathetic.

I'm going to laugh if DK has more than 60% of brackets on his side. Heck he shouldn't even have more than 50%.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/23/2010 5:03:31 AM | message detail
Match XVI: (2) Altair vs. (15) Liquid Snake

Information

Name: Altair
Game/Series: Assassin’s Creed
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 3

Name: Liquid Snake
Game/Series: Metal Gear
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 3

Analysis

2/15 matches aren’t suppose to have debate and yet here’s another match. The vote-ins did a good job removing useless characters which explains why this contest has so few blowouts so far, combine that with some over seeded characters and we have the recipe for interesting matches.

Had this match occur right after the last contest I’m positive that Liquid would be the huge favourite along with there being little to no debate. Since then Assassin’s Creed II has been released and while Altair is not the main character of the game he is referenced throughout the game and Ezio, the main character has a similar design so that people that only played Assassin’s Creed II can at least infer that Altair is a character from those games.

While the boost is imminent the question is whether or not it would be enough. Altair’s performance last year suggests that he’s above the fodder line; however Liquid Snake was able to get 45% on Luigi which makes him a decent mid-carder. Assassin’s Creed II was better received than the original, but I feel that Ezio is going to get the majority of the love compare to Altair. A good comparison is oddly enough Liquid Snake, he wasn’t in Metal Gear Solid 4 yet he received the boost of the lifetime. However I don’t expect Altair to get quite as big of a boost and I would argue that 2007 Liquid was stronger than 2008 Altair.

I took Liquid Snake without thinking, but a lot of people are backing a casual shift in this contest and so far I’m not really seeing much evidence of that. Of course there haven’t been many casual matches either. While I see Altair putting a decent performance on Liquid I just don’t see the push to get him over the top, but with the way this contest has been going anything is possible.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Liquid Snake > Altair

charmander6000’s Prediction: Liquid Snake wins, 58.35% - 41.65%

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Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake
voltch | Posted 1/23/2010 5:04:42 AM | message detail
I still think vivi has what it takes to be liquid, that guy's wonky so really anything could happen.
Unless he murders altair then i think Vivi's doomed.
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Calintares | Posted 1/23/2010 5:04:49 AM | message detail
Vivi is doing better now then he did in 2004
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/23/2010 5:05:25 AM | message detail
I'm going to laugh if DK has more than 60% of brackets on his side. Heck he shouldn't even have more than 50%.

DK always had bracket support. Heck in their first meeting he had 65% bracket support, though that was when Vivi was new.
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Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/23/2010 5:09:07 AM | message detail
Vivi is doing better now then he did in 2004

Not by much. The results here are almost identical to what happened in 2004. Depending on how the morning vote goes, DK's % might rise. It would be weird if the final percentages ended up by exactly the same as they were in the 2004 match.
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Agent M | Posted 1/23/2010 5:13:12 AM | message detail
DK always had bracket support. Heck in their first meeting he had 65% bracket support, though that was when Vivi was new.

I know, that's the reason Vivi ought to have better support this time around. If more than 60% of people still thought Chokey Kong was a good bet against someone that decisively beat him, than I've no words.
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/23/2010 5:14:50 AM | message detail
Most people probably don't remember that match. Personally I expect bracket support to be split.
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Character Battle VIII - 10/14 - Today's Winners: Vivi and Liquid Snake
Calintares | Posted 1/23/2010 5:16:58 AM | message detail
How does the Square-hierarchy go?
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/23/2010 5:20:00 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/23/2010 5:20:22 AM | message detail
Vivi will win the Chaos Division!!!
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