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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 794

Team Aqua Elite (36) | Board List | Topic List | Topic Closed | Track Topic
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 1/22/2010 7:28:51 AM | message detail
It may be coincidence, but extrapolating through the vote-in poll (using Axel/Megaman and Sonic/Auron) gave me very accurate results for Sonic/Lightning.

And before someone blames Sandbag or something for Sonic/Auron, keep in mind that Axel/Mega Man was mere months after KH2, when Axel was likely at his peak.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 1/22/2010 7:32:24 AM | message detail
Red sox, do you honestly believe Sonic would fall anywhere near as much as side characters? It won't happen. Just look at the difference between Crono, and the now joke characters Frog/Magus. Hell, Megaman/Zero as well. zero went from getting 47% on Mario, to not even being able to beat Luigi.

First of all, Zero got 37% on Mario, in what is commonly agreed to be a massive SFF situation.

Secondly, Luigi is clearly a completely different character since his 2006 run. Since 2006, Luigi has been extremely impressive coming close to (and eventually beating) Ganondorf, and we all know how well Kirby looked last year. Zero isn't at his 2003/2004 strength any more, but he's still up there with the second tier elites.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/22/2010 7:33:59 AM | message detail
Luigi did really well in 2006 before running into Sonic too, beating Zero and Kirby. Despite that, he ended up finishing lower than Bowser in the stats after getting blasted by Sonic. Sonic/Luigi SFF? Much much stranger things have happened before.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Sonic_Factor | Posted 1/22/2010 7:36:08 AM | message detail
You're right. He hit 47.6% on Sonic in 2k3. Got it confused. That's almost as good of an example considering Shadow hit 45% on Mario that year. So Sonic wasn't too far off from him.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/22/2010 7:36:51 AM | message detail
Don't most people think that Sonic Team is pretty much in the Nintendo fanbase at this point and thus involved in Nintendo SFF situations?
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Not Wylvane
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/22/2010 7:40:01 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | Posted: 1/22/2010 10:36:51 AM | #155
Don't most people think that Sonic Team is pretty much in the Nintendo fanbase at this point and thus involved in Nintendo SFF situations?


That's what was argued in Shadow's favor for the match against Amaterasu, and look how well it worked out.
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Jman_maximum | Posted 1/22/2010 7:40:25 AM | message detail
also i just remembered that Sonic let Magus get 40% on him in 2008

the same Magus that people are calling a joke.

all evidence points at Sonic being ..not really even elite level anymore (more of a highcarder). but i guess we'll see.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/22/2010 7:43:51 AM | message detail

From: Jman_maximum | Posted: 1/22/2010 10:40:25 AM | #157
also i just remembered that Sonic let Magus get 40% on him in 2008

the same Magus that people are calling a joke.

all evidence points at Sonic being ..not really even elite level anymore (more of a highcarder). but i guess we'll see.


That's the consensus at this point. It's not a question of Sonic being elite anymore: it's whether he's even Top 15. The Number 9/10 spots are taken by two of Crono, Mega Man, Squall, or Vincent, and there's a bunch of near-elites I wouldn't feel comfortable about taking Sonic to win against after that.
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Drew2688 | Posted 1/22/2010 7:57:33 AM | message detail
i know it's too late to say it, but Kirby is still dropping. Kinda unimpressive performance IMO. Hopefully he stays above 56%
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/22/2010 8:00:22 AM | message detail

From: Drew2688 | Posted: 1/22/2010 10:57:33 AM | #159
i know it's too late to say it, but Kirby is still dropping. Kinda unimpressive performance IMO. Hopefully he stays above 56%


Naw, this performance is about right. Rikku is a good midcarder, potentially a high midcarder. Kirby holding her back like this is far more impressive than Ganondorf's 60-40 of Mewtwo IMO.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/22/2010 8:02:20 AM | message detail
Yeah Rikku is ok. Kirby is doing great ased on it's a night match and FF characters have been doing great in this contest so far.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 1/22/2010 8:02:54 AM | message detail
What time/day is the Sonic/Kirby match on? Kirby has not looked good at all during the night vote.

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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy Tactics, Ocarina of Time, Final Fantasy IX
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/22/2010 8:06:10 AM | message detail
But using extrapolation, Kirby is not disappointing or impressing. Rikku had this same percent against Yoshi with Vaan leeching off of her, and Kirby is more popular than Yoshi on this site. Factor in the FF boost that has seemed to hit the contest this year, along with TJF, and you get the expected result.

As far as GLaDOS, I'm counting on it to be a close match ending in GLaDOS's favor, and if Fawful wins then, well, there goes my perfect bracket! Though having Liquid beat Vivi and Jecht lose to Phoenix Wright will probably shut me up quickly.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/22/2010 8:07:13 AM | message detail
If Kirby is so go damn strong now why is Rikku getting the same % as Tidus got against him in 2005? If anything, Kirby has fallen.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/22/2010 8:08:01 AM | message detail
Sonic/Kirby is a day match
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Biolizard28 | Posted 1/22/2010 8:10:28 AM | message detail

From: KanzarisKelshen | #158
That's the consensus at this point. It's not a question of Sonic being elite anymore: it's whether he's even Top 15.


Now, I may not watch these topics very closely, but that seems to be only your opinion, guy.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/22/2010 8:10:53 AM | message detail
Oh man, were you guys really arguing with Sonic_Factor.

Whoops.
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Mega Mana | Posted 1/22/2010 8:15:11 AM | message detail
Ah, good to wake up and see I haven't missed much
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/22/2010 8:21:47 AM | message detail
why is Rikku getting the same % as Tidus got against him in 2005? If anything, Kirby has fallen.

Tidus, Rikku, and Yuna are probably all around the same strength, thanks to the fact that Yuna and Rikku have starring roles in FFX-2.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/22/2010 8:22:47 AM | message detail

From: Biolizard28 | Posted: 1/22/2010 11:10:28 AM | #166
Now, I may not watch these topics very closely, but that seems to be only your opinion, guy.


No, really. The rest of the Noble Nine + Squall and Vincent covers 10 spots. Auron covers another one, and he's beaten Sonic with room to spare before. Tifa's weird, but if you assume she boosted with KH2 like everyone else in that game did, she can beat Sonic easy now that he's fallen. We are, of course, debating Kirby and Ganondorf over Sonic right now. That covers 13 spots, and at least 11 of those are set in stone. Add in Luigi, Sora, or several other near-elites and take whoever you think is strongest, and it's tricky for Sonic to even get the 15th spot.
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voltch | Posted 1/22/2010 8:22:52 AM | message detail
Tidus will rise due to Dissidia
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BELIEVE!
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 1/22/2010 8:25:18 AM | message detail

From: voltch | Posted: 1/22/2010 11:22:52 AM | #171
Tidus will rise due to Dissidia


That's a possibility, yeah. After Cecil, I'm withholding judgement for a while, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 1/22/2010 8:26:58 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #171
Tidus will rise due to Dissidia


Nobody's rising due to Dissidia.

Geez
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/22/2010 8:29:11 AM | message detail
Low votals.

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Nomchan | Posted 1/22/2010 8:29:52 AM | message detail
Tidus, Rikku, and Yuna are probably all around the same strength, thanks to the fact that Yuna and Rikku have starring roles in FFX-2.

If anything, X-2 probably hurts their popularity.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 8:32:41 AM | message detail
The votals are in line with the last few night matches. So far, the only night match to even hit 60K has been Link's.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/22/2010 8:33:28 AM | message detail

From: Nomchan | #175
Tidus, Rikku, and Yuna are probably all around the same strength, thanks to the fact that Yuna and Rikku have starring roles in FFX-2.

If anything, X-2 probably hurts their popularity.


I doubt that very highly.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/22/2010 8:34:33 AM | message detail
Yuna and Rikku in FFX-2 the best.
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voltch | Posted 1/22/2010 8:34:39 AM | message detail
X-2 actually has fans, well the battle system at the very least is beloved by all.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/22/2010 8:42:36 AM | message detail
Kirby still looks fine -- Rikku could have done a lot better.


GlaDOS should take out Fawful. What handheld-only characters have ever done well? Phoenix is the best one I can think of, and he's the star of several games named after him with a fad to back him up. Portal and The Orange Box have done much better than any M&L game...or, really, any Mario-RPG besides SMRPG. Even then, look at Geno -- he's a playable fan-favorite in it (and I think he appears in a M&L-game too), yet his only win is 53-47'ing Deckard Cain. Compare Geno/GlaDOS to Bowser/Vincent and tell me which is more impressive:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3249
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3254

Falco ended up underperforming in the next round so GlaDOS should probably do worse too, but even extrapolating like that Geno barely beats GlaDOS. It's also unlikely Geno was SFF'd since he's performed poorly against Squall (both with and without Aeris) too -- either they both SFF'd him for different reasons or he didn't get SFF'd...

...so if Geno can't do well, I don't expect anything from Fawful. GlaDOS isn't strong so it's not impossible, but it's hard to imagine Fawful winning for his strength.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/22/2010 8:46:34 AM | message detail
I doubt Squall SFF'd Geno at all. There's no reason for him to. I doubt many people even associate Geno with Square. Bowser's got a decent argument for it, at least.
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voltch | Posted 1/22/2010 8:58:29 AM | message detail
well let's get this next match started.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/22/2010 8:59:16 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/22/2010 8:59:22 AM | message detail
Fawful with 75%
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/22/2010 8:59:32 AM | message detail
Fawful has sprinkled GlaDOS's cake with the mustard of doom.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:03 AM | message detail
Kirby with 79.88%.
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Master Moltar | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:11 AM | message detail
GlaDOS 50%

5
Fawful 50%

5
TOTAL VOTES 10
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Kirby > Rikku (11/12)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:15 AM | message detail
GlaDOS 50%

3
Fawful 50%

3
TOTAL VOTES 6

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:16 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
GlaDOS 37.5%

3
Fawful 62.5%

5
TOTAL VOTES 8

Aw yeah Fawful
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:31 AM | message detail
GlaDOS 57.14% 28
Fawful 42.86% 21
TOTAL VOTES 49

This is not yet a triumph.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:37 AM | message detail
GlaDOS 38.46% 5

Fawful 61.54% 8

TOTAL VOTES 13


CLOSE!!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:40 AM | message detail
THIS WAS A TRIUMPH

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
voltch | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:40 AM | message detail
GlaDOS 35.29%

6
Fawful 64.71%

11
TOTAL VOTES 17

ouch
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Lightslayer987 | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:43 AM | message detail
so its already a doubling for glados... this may end up a tripling
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/22/2010 9:00:51 AM | message detail
Next.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LOLContests | Posted 1/22/2010 9:01:00 AM | message detail
People having horrible taste confirmed.
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Yesmar
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/22/2010 9:01:07 AM | message detail
oh god can we please not do Portal quotes
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/22/2010 9:01:17 AM | message detail

From: Lightslayer987 | #194
so its already a doubling for glados... this may end up a tripling


Unlikely. GlaDOS undoubtedly has the board vote.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
red sox 777 | Posted 1/22/2010 9:01:21 AM | message detail
Ha, Fawful got the super-early vote.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Master Moltar | Posted 1/22/2010 9:01:26 AM | message detail
LOLful

next match please
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Kirby > Rikku (11/12)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/