GameFAQs Contests

I don't really trust fourway percentages, but I'd guess that Kratos/Mewtwo would be a reasonably close match.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

Sounds reasonable to me. Would anyone take Pikachu to beat Ganondorf outright? He put up 46% on Crono last year, then put up 37% on Samus in a match where he had every reason to be Last Place Factored and SFF'd but evidently resisted both. Before that, he beat Alucard despite Captain Falcon being in the poll, which must look a lot better after seeing Alucard crush Magus.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Would anyone take Pikachu to beat Ganondorf outright?

No.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

I'd probably take Pikachu > Ganondorf at this point. I'm starting to think Ganondorf's no longer the #4 Nintendo character, and that it's a toss-up between Pikachu, Kirby, and Luigi, or even Missingno if he impresses against Crono.

I think Kratos would handle Mewtwo no problem. Hell, I think Kratos is going to be a force this contest, especially once GoW3 hype starts building up. He'll probably get Blowout of the Contest against Tails, have a close yet still impressive victory against Charizard, and then upset Sora with Sony SFF and the height of GoW3 hype.

At least I hope all that happens! Kratos > Sora is my only big upset pick!
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Not Wylvane

Lol @ overreaction to this. Ganon is still gaining votes, he'll end at >60% for sure.
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~AK~ // Merc

This makes me worry less about my Sonic > Ganondorf pick. Now, to see how Kirby does.

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Drake? DRAKE? DRAAAAAAAAKE!
CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC)

Yesterday's chart:

Time | Cecil | Knuckles | Votes
0:05 | 47.45% | 52.55% | 805
1:00 | 48.82% | 51.18% | 8082
2:00 | 48.52% | 51.48% | 7010
3:00 | 48.79% | 51.21% | 6557
4:00 | 47.98% | 52.02% | 7015
5:00 | 47.31% | 52.69% | 7167
6:00 | 46.78% | 53.22% | 6766
7:00 | 46.90% | 53.10% | 6350
8:00 | 47.22% | 52.78% | 5589
9:00 | 46.12% | 53.88% | 5072
10:00 | 48.16% | 51.84% | 4686
11:00 | 50.53% | 49.47% | 4207
12:00 | 50.11% | 49.89% | 3494

Oh look, trends! Cecil gets the normal DSV timeframe. Knuckles does best during the ASV timeframe, especially toward the end. Cecil won the last two hours of the match outright.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

From: AsurasKordoth | #205
Lol @ overreaction to this. Ganon is still gaining votes, he'll end at >60% for sure.

I'm not so sure. The percentage shouldn't shift much from here. They have similar trends.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Glad to see the SNV is back. It was always the most exciting timeframe, and it's been reduced to final hour rallies based more on rallying than trends the past few years.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

The #4 Nintendo character is Zelda or Kirby. Ganondorf has looked worse than Zelda for years now.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

Serious curious question. Why are people taking Ken with less than 60%? Wesker almost lost to Sackboy and got 30% on Kefka. I must be missing something. New RE release with a big role for him?
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caps

I don't have the time to be obsessively looking at all of the minute trends throughout the day, but I can see simple trends, and as to this night/day thing, there's a big one. The 10 matches completed so far, arranged by their total votes drawn:

1. #13 Mega Man X over #4 Captain John Price, Sunday daytime, 81068 votes.
2. #6 Amataerasu over #11 Shadow the Hedgehog, Monday (federal holiday in U.S.) daytime, 79846 votes.
3. #9 Knuckles over #8 Cecil Harvey, Wednesday daytime (ASV may start earlier than usual due to midterms--I'm currently finishing up winter break at college, so I'm at home, and apparently this week is midterm week fir the high schoolers,) 71995 votes.
4. #15 The Boss over #2 Nathan Drake, Tuesday daytime, 69910 votes.
5. #8 Alucard over #9 Magus, Saturday daytime, 65187 votes
6. #1 Link over #16 Thrall, Saturday nighttime, 60599 votes. Well, of course everyone's excited for the first match, eh?
7. #5 Red over #12 Ocelot, Sunday nighttime, 58208 votes.
8. #3 Luigi over #14 Meta Knight, Monday nighttime, 55360 votes.
9. #1 Sonic over #16 Lightning, Wednesday nighttime, 53494 votes.
10. #7 Weighted Companion Cube over #10 Sandal, Tuesday nighttime, 49202 votes.

The trend? Despite both having 12 hours to work with, the nighttime matches average about 55000 votes, while the daytime matches average, oh, 73000 or so. (Official averages: 55372.6; 73601.2)

That's about a 4:3 ratio. That could be significant.

From: AmazingKirby | #211
Serious curious question. Why are people taking Ken with less than 60%? Wesker almost lost to Sackboy and got 30% on Kefka. I must be missing something. New RE release with a big role for him?

This feels like Cecil/Knuckles, part 2 to me, honestly. It feels like Ken should win easily, buuuuuutttt....
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

Sheik could beat both Ganondorf and Zelda.

Not only does she have far better character design than either of them, but she's also top tier in Melee!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Serious curious question. Why are people taking Ken with less than 60%? Wesker almost lost to Sackboy and got 30% on Kefka. I must be missing something. New RE release with a big role for him?

A feeling, a rather strong one that I've had since the bracket came out, that I had to fight just to take Ken to win.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

From: Not_Wylvane | #204
I'd probably take Pikachu > Ganondorf at this point. I'm starting to think Ganondorf's no longer the #4 Nintendo character, and that it's a toss-up between Pikachu, Kirby, and Luigi, or even Missingno if he impresses against Crono.

I think Kratos would handle Mewtwo no problem. Hell, I think Kratos is going to be a force this contest, especially once GoW3 hype starts building up. He'll probably get Blowout of the Contest against Tails, have a close yet still impressive victory against Charizard, and then upset Sora with Sony SFF and the height of GoW3 hype.

At least I hope all that happens! Kratos > Sora is my only big upset pick!

Pikachu > Ganondorf.








...Really?

4-way data is garbage, I expect Mewtwo (and Charizard) to end up stronger than Pikachu in 1v1 personally.

Anyway, I expected a 60-62% win in this match. This isn't THAT far off... Ganondorf will follow his path and lose to Sonic. And yes, Lightning would put up stronger numbers on Ganondorf than she did on Sonic. Lightning doesn't just get 36% on a NN and it be a total fluke.
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"You guys have electricity? How do you manage that?"
"We have 2 giant hamsters running on a massive wheel in our secret underground cave..."

>_>

There's just no reason at all for these feelings that Wesker will do well? Hm...Maybe with Ken not having a name in the pic...
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caps

Well, I think the thing is the data that says Ken will beat Wesker easily is several years old. Stats from 2005 or worse, 2003, mean very little nowadays, especially when Wesker has had an important role in a new game since then.

Also: Street Fighter 2 lost to Sonic 1 in the Games Contest. Street Fighter 4 beat Persona 4 by 7 votes. These are performances that inspire no confidence.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

From: AmazingKirby | #217
>_>

There's just no reason at all for these feelings that Wesker will do well? Hm...Maybe with Ken not having a name in the pic...

Wesker's just weird to me. I don't know what to make of him. I look at 60% on Luca Blight, 30% on Kefka, 45% on Lloyd, and getting doubled by Vivi, and I think, "Ken should own this chump."

But for some reason, I have an uneasy feeling about it.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

The #4 Nintendo character is Zelda or Kirby. Ganondorf has looked worse than Zelda for years now.

I'll agree with you about 'Dorf looking worse, but Kirby's still a few steps behind. I think Bowser and Yoshi are probably still ahead of Kirby...and like I said before, they've got the stage to prove it.

I'm currently at my post limit for the time being, so I'll leave you all with this thought: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

THANK YOU, YOU'VE BEEN A GREAT AUDIENCE! *shot*

Still alive, though most of us are--LUS 2010.
_________________________
Get on board for Yoshi > Crono!

Also: Street Fighter 2 lost to Sonic 1 in the Games Contest. Street Fighter 4 beat Persona 4 by 7 votes. These are performances that inspire no confidence.

Yeah, but SF2 has never been strong.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW

From: LeonhartFour | #185
Oh, and Midna's not as bad as people think she is. She got a bad rap for getting blown out by Scorps in 2007, but I'm half convinced that Kratos LFF'd her back then.

.....

Man, I have no idea why so many people think Midna has strength. I took Scorpion in that match without even thinking about it twice. Midna is lame, she's barely less of a nuisance than Navi. Least Navi is a good fairy too and actually wants to help you (just gets a little overbearing if you wander around between dungeons).. Midna acts like a brat the entire time, and then at the end she helps Link beat Ganon, and turns out to be "beautiful" or whatever, and Board8 thinks people will suddenly vote for her over Scorpion because of that? I sure as hell didn't forget how much I hated her and how much of a badass Scorpion is.
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"You guys have electricity? How do you manage that?"
"We have 2 giant hamsters running on a massive wheel in our secret underground cave..."

Am I the only one who doesn't think Ken's banner is difficult to read? I don't really notice anything strange about it, honestly.

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Drake? DRAKE? DRAAAAAAAAKE!
CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC)

Man, what the hell is it with Wyoming being ass-backwards in almost every match so far.
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If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer!

Ken's banner isn't that difficult to read. It just looks horrible because it's so stretched and the entire picture is all red.

Man, I have no idea why so many people think Midna has strength.

50/50 with Mewtwo. Maybe it's a fluke, but I dunno.

And Midna beautiful? What game did you play?
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Wyoming is the best new fad in a while.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Those wacky Wyomingians
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

http://www.thegreenhead.com/imgs/wyoming-who-cares-1.jpg
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Also, I have Charizard > Kratos and I consider it my stupidest pick of the contest. The GoW3 hype is going to be palpable by that match, and Kratos was probably naturally stronger than Kirby in 2007.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

If Pikachu were to face Ganondorf, I'd probably consider the Dorf to still be the favorite, but I think Pikachu would have a decent chance as well.

And I thought this even before this match. Frankly, I don't think Ganondorf's doing that bad here, but more Mewtwo impressing and Pokemon showing its strength in 1v1.

If L-Block crushes HK-47 and Missingno impresses against Crono, can we finally stop arguing about four-ways having much different results from 1v1? Sonic team still sucks, Pokemon is still strong, and joke characters likely won't be significantly weaker from their Round 1 base strengths (though that last one has yet to be proven considering WCC's match was a joke). Other than LFF, there's not much suggesting that four-way results differ from at least these 1v1 matches, if you consider that characters are probably going to get similar votals between the two (24-hour matches divided by four vs 12-hour matches divided by two).

Of course, that doesn't mean four-way stats are going to be that useful simply due to how much LFF we had to deal with in those two contests. But I think pretty much everything that held true in four-ways holds true here. It's just that between 2006 and 2007, Sonic had his biggest stinker of a game yet that really started fan backlash, while we hadn't seen Pokemon since before the site shift, and we never actually had a joke character with broad appeal before. If 2007 and 2008 were 1v1, we'd still see Sonic deteriorating, Pikachu and company exceeding expectations, and L-Block and Cube performing surprisingly well (though obviously not coming close to winning any contests). Fourways were just coincidental.
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Not Wylvane

4-way stats are not overly meaningful. However I thought the notion of 4-way results being somehow intrinsically different than 1v1s was destroyed when Master Chief came back down to earth. So I'm unclear why people still talk about how some characters not having their strength translate from 4-way to 1v1.

The 4-way thing was just a silly excuse for Sonic team, but I thought most of realized that it was just an excuse long ago. We talked about how it was just an excuse - that Sonic team was no worse in 4ways, they'd just gotten weaker. It was understood.

Master Chief was the only real evidence of 4-ways being different in terms of voting, but that of course was all hype, and pretty much nothing to do with the format. Bandwagons being easier in 4ways, and LFF, are the main issues.

The primary reason 4way stats are junk is because LFF can be all sorts of weird and behave in ways we don't really understand, either before or after the fact.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

People get waaaay too hung up on the few bandwagon and outlier matches that 4-ways cause. The majority of 4-way matches are perfectly translatable to a 1 v 1 setting, you just have to be smart about it.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

It's a shame Mewtwo didn't get good bracket placement this year. He could hang with some midcarders like Zero or something, but he's probably gonna go down in popularity from this year I'd wager.
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Elephant Talk: A New Kind Of Music Blog!
http://elephantmusictalk.blogspot.com/

yeah could have done pretty well, but of course he had to meet ganon <__<
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg

I dunno what to think of this, honestly. It's probably Ganon disappointing, though.

I've got to ask. If an outsidemember beats a noble nine in this format will the noble nine then actully be broken? Just wondered if it counts in this 12 hours format or only in the original format.
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg

I'd imagine that for some it would be absolute, for others it would be contingent on what time of day the match took place in. If, for example, Sonic were to break the NN in a squeaker that takes place in the dead of night, there could be realistic arguments as to whether he could have come through in a 24 hour match. By comparison if, say, Crono were to break the Noble Nine in a night match, no matter how close the result, there would be no real argument there - it's not like Crono would've come back in the day.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Then again, I guess with joke character trends y'never know...
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Match XII: (4) Albert Wesker vs. (13) Ken

Information

Name: Albert Wesker
Game/Series: Resident Evil
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 1

Name: Ken
Game/Series: Street Fighter
Previous Contest: 2003
Performance: Lost to Sonic the Hedgehog in round 1

Analysis

After a seven year wait Ken finally makes his return to the contest and for the first time he isn’t against a Noble Nine character and is in actually a winning position. Ken was the winner of the returner’s tournament winning it with ease. This match has gained mild hype, but I think that is from people trying to make a match out of what is not. The possibility is there, but it would require a few extreme cases.

Since the last contest Wesker has appeared in Resident Evil 5. The game wasn’t as well received as Resident Evil 4, but it should at least give him something. Wesker has got to be one of the more random characters of the contest. The good news is that he only fluctuates between fodder and bad fodder which a lot of people agree that Ken is above.

A recurring theme of many characters that only appeared in the early contests only to come back a lot weaker is concerning. However at the same time characters like M. Bison, Chun Li and Akuma, which I feel Ken is at least comparable to have all made appearances since Ken and they have all performed well along with Ryu not appearing to look weaker over the years makes me feel that Ken won’t suffer a massive drop.

Deciding a percent for Wesker can be quite difficult to do along with a Resident Evil 5 boost. We could see the Wesker that performed worse than Mithos or the one that went even with Lloyd until morning. Either way Ken should win comfortably.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Ken > Albert Wesker

charmander6000’s Prediction: Ken wins, 58.83% - 41.17%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 7/10 - Today's Winners: Ganondorf and Ken

I agree. Ken shall win.
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Point Total: 9/11
My Bracket Says: Ken

Looks like Mewtwo is winning in Hawaii and Wyoming.

Hawaii I understand, but Wyoming?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 7/10 - Today's Winners: Ganondorf and Ken

there seems to be so few people voting in wyoming a a bunch of friends voting together could probably have a huge impact on percentages.
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Shakes Fist!

Look at that morning vote go. Over the last 30 minutes Ganondorf has almost pulled in 62% of the vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 7/10 - Today's Winners: Ganondorf and Ken

Impressive, Mewtwo actually did a cut in the deep night.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

You know a match is boring if you come back in the morning to find there isn't even a new page of posts.

After seeing all the matches so far, I wouldn't be surprised if RE5-boosted Wesker and Ryu-clone from the stagnating SF franchise Ken turns out to be another close one. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if Ken doubles Wesker either.

Oh well, another boring match means I can use my time for better things, like eagerly awaiting Sonic's downfall!
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Not Wylvane

Street Fighter isn't a stagnating franchise. People are taking that near loss to Persona 4 way too seriously.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

Wesker might have been able to keep it respectable had RE5 come out a few months ago, but that game has been largely forgotten. In Wesker's best match, he barely lost to Lara Croft, who was 55/45'd by Chun-Li, who is weaker than Ken. Even 2-3 matches is an arduous strong these days (especially when one is 4ways), but I'd still be really surprised if Wesker managed anything.
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

near loss to Persona 4

Haha, what? Wesker > Ken confoimed.
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Oh, sorry, I got distracted by KrahenProphet.
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=99

strong = string

The mornin' post blues!
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

So far, what do you think has been the most...
-Boring Match
-Intersting Match
-Suprising Match
?
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(\__/) Vincent Valentine's #3 Fanboy, Knuckles' #1 Homeboy
(='.'=) My Bunny Ziggy