GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 785
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/18/2010 9:18:39 PM | message detail |
Hey, we got L-Block brackets on the leaderboard finally. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
paraboxx | Posted 1/18/2010 9:19:40 PM | message detail |
Yeah, I'm kicking myself for picking L-Block to bow out in Round 1. But really, if it doesn't lose to HK-47, who does
it lose to? Isaac? Kratos, who it's already beaten? Of course Sora
could be an obstacle, but by then it could have the bandwagon support
again. So who's to say? Safest bet was to take HK-47. But man, it's not looking so safe right now... |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 9:20:15 PM | message detail |
Kratos, who it's already beaten? Kratos beat L-Block before it got rolling. Kratos will beat it again unless it gets another bandwagon going. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/18/2010 9:20:50 PM | message detail |
Wow, how is the Cube keeping up this insane performance. Back to 80% updates again. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:20:51 PM | message detail |
L-Block > WCC from 2008 I'd debate this. 43% on Crono vs. 40% on Snake seems to be at the very least even to me. --- If you're seeing this sig, I'm not on my computer! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 9:21:31 PM | message detail |
Make up your mind, Cube! --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:22:42 PM | message detail |
L-Block
most likely loses to the winner of Kratos/Charizard, but it's not a
lock like people have been treating it. Yes, L-Block was not as strong
as Kratos in the early rounds of 2007, but since then, he's become
contest champion and beat up Link, Cloud, Snake, and Sonic. His base
strength now is probably a lot higher than in 2007. L behaved rather a lot like a normal character in 2008, and with the Dog in the round 1 poll, you could make a case for L-Block being on Ryu's level 1v1. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 9:23:54 PM | message detail |
Well,
Cube ain't gonna beat Link in votals, sadly. It dropped to 83 votes
behind Link. Then again, it's ****ing Link, who's gotta be one of the
biggest vote draws here. Anyway, it kinda puts a blow to the whole "Joke characters are weak in 1v1" argument. SFFed uber-fodder or not, Cube would still not be getting such high votals if he weren't a vote draw himself. I think he could stand up against real competition and give Luigi a good match, maybe even break 40% or so. --- Not Wylvane |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/18/2010 9:24:13 PM | message detail |
That 72% update seemed more like Sandal spiking, guys. --- *is Dranze* Krahen Prophet did a fatality. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/18/2010 9:25:39 PM | message detail |
watch drake beat cube next round, making sandal look tanner esque --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
HaRRicH | Posted 1/18/2010 9:26:10 PM | message detail |
I
was thinking of their R1-matches when I said L > WCC. I'll take Ryu
> Tidus, and L had to deal with The Dog in its match. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/18/2010 9:28:44 PM | message detail |
watch drake beat cube next round, making sandal look tanner esque Imagine if Cube defeated Luigi, then got easily crushed by Link next round. That would make Sandal look like he's as weak as Tanner, if not weaker than him. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 9:28:55 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #107 This. I definitely consider the winner of Kratos/Charizard the favorite, but L-Block's unpredictable. He isn't as strong as early 2007, especially now that he has a contest win under his belt. Yeah, it's extremely unlikely he'll ever defeat the likes of Link again, but he's definitely a solid midcarder at minimum, and for all we know he could even be an elite and stand with the likes of... Bowser and Sora? Of the five contenders to win the division, I give L-Block the lowest odds, but I'm sure as hell not counting him out just because it's 1v1. Of course, we have to actually see the block pass Kratos or Charizard first. That will be his first real test, and probably the last this contest. --- Not Wylvane |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 1/18/2010 9:31:06 PM | message detail |
From: Not_Wylvane | #108 Umm.. it's the board vote. Would we really expect most matches to be far behind the "records" during initial voting? I dunno, haven't actually looked at the stats, just a thought. --- "You guys have electricity? How do you manage that?" "We have 2 giant hamsters running on a massive wheel in our secret underground cave..." |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 9:33:26 PM | message detail |
The chart: Time | Amaterasu | Shadow | Votes 0:05 | 52.19% | 47.81% | 1075 1:00 | 52.56% | 47.44% | 10768 2:00 | 52.39% | 47.61% | 9465 3:00 | 52.33% | 47.67% | 8300 4:00 | 53.21% | 46.79% | 8021 5:00 | 52.25% | 47.75% | 7144 6:00 | 52.64% | 47.36% | 6748 7:00 | 51.31% | 48.69% | 6192 8:00 | 51.93% | 48.07% | 5571 9:00 | 52.53% | 47.47% | 5049 10:00 | 53.60% | 46.40% | 4647 11:00 | 53.70% | 46.30% | 4279 12:00 | 53.74% | 46.26% | 3662 We haven't really seen a lot of big shifts so far with this 12-hour format. I wonder if that will be a recurring thing or if we just haven't hit the right kind of match yet. Ammy did do noticeably better with the late night vote though. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:34:54 PM | message detail |
We
haven't really seen a lot of big shifts so far with this 12-hour
format. I wonder if that will be a recurring thing or if we just
haven't hit the right kind of match yet. Ammy did do noticeably better
with the late night vote though. We've seen some shifts with the night matches, but not the day matches. Today brings us our first match with a real ASV, so it will be interesting to see what happens. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
creativename | Posted 1/18/2010 9:40:23 PM | message detail |
People were talking L-Block to lose to HK-47!? Wow. What's this about a podcast? Anyway, I still don't get why people talk about how jokes would do worse in this format than 4-ways - double the characters or halve the poll time, either way, the net effect is more or less the same: "static" type votebases will have very similar levels of power over the outcome. I think L-Block has a lot better chance to beat Kratos than Charizard, because Charizard will be like kryptonite to the Block's board vote. If Charizard is strong enough to beat Kratos, it should beat the Block. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/18/2010 9:42:04 PM | message detail |
because Charizard will be like kryptonite to the Block's board vote Definitely. If Pikachu could defeat L-Block with his insane board vote, then Charizard should be able to pull off the same thing. Kratos doesn't have a good board vote. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 9:42:12 PM | message detail |
What's this about a podcast? NGamer and Bellis started doing a contest podcast about a month or so ago. http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53092080 Here's the topic. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:44:55 PM | message detail |
Anyway,
I still don't get why people talk about how jokes would do worse in
this format than 4-ways - double the characters or halve the poll time,
either way, the net effect is more or less the same: "static" type
votebases will have very similar levels of power over the outcome. I think the idea is that a static 28% or something of the site will always vote for a joke no matter what, but joke voters may miss a poll due to it being 12 hours just as much as non-joke voters. Agreed that this 12-hour format is also better for jokes than a standard 24-hour 1v1 though. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
ffmasterjose | Posted 1/18/2010 9:57:04 PM | message detail |
Cube layin' the smackdown --- 4/6 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VIII NP: Weighted Companion Cube > Sandal | The Boss > Nathan Drake |
paraboxx | Posted 1/18/2010 9:57:53 PM | message detail |
I
think L-Block has a lot better chance to beat Kratos than Charizard,
because Charizard will be like kryptonite to the Block's board vote. Isn't the board vote, like, 1000 votes at the most? And that equals a lot better chance for it to beat Kratos than Charizard? I can still agree with this, though: If Charizard is strong enough to beat Kratos, it should beat the Block. |
creativename | Posted 1/18/2010 9:58:28 PM | message detail |
I
think the idea is that a static 28% or something of the site will
always vote for a joke no matter what, but joke voters may miss a poll
due to it being 12 hours just as much as non-joke voters. Agreed that
this 12-hour format is also better for jokes than a standard 24-hour
1v1 though. There may be something to lots of "joke" voters missing the poll as well, however overall I think it's not that many. The final last year is a great example - Snake vs. Cloud. The bandwagon/joke voter effect in the first couple hours was enough to win Snake the match. That effect will be just as powerful in 12 hour matches as in 4 ways. The Snake vs. Sephiroth match will be 24 hours though right? I think lots of people have taken the upset there, but it being a 24 hour match really hurts Snake's chances. In a 12 hour match I think it'd be a tossup. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 9:59:15 PM | message detail |
The Snake vs. Sephiroth match will be 24 hours though right? No, only the last 3 matches are 24 hours. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/18/2010 9:59:58 PM | message detail |
The Snake vs. Sephiroth match will be 24 hours though right? 12 hour match. And it's a day match too. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ! |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 10:01:15 PM | message detail |
It
should be a 12-hour match, the last one before the switch to 24-hour
matches. I ended up switching to Sephiroth because I could see him
winning with 55%+, while I couldn't really see Snake winning with more
than 51%. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/18/2010 10:02:00 PM | message detail |
...oh boy. This makes me really freaking nervous about my Fawful > GlaDOS pick. --- I've been Shadowned. Goodbye, perfect bracket. CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC) |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 10:02:54 PM | message detail |
This match says very little about that. Sandal is just pathetic. I'd be nervous about picking Fawful anyway though. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 1/18/2010 10:10:12 PM | message detail |
Score-Brackets-% Right 5--------3943------34.8719249 4--------9733------35.6416316 3--------8197------36.3181652 2--------3047------40.3019363 1--------503--------39.9602386 0--------145--------15.8620690 Assuming the 0s are trying to stay 0, they did pretty well. Everyone else did poorly. 25 people fell off the Top 50 today. EatHonkerBurger, TheKnightOfNee, Rikkkku, Ainoxi, thisistemporary, BigTheBrat, marcthemagicbum, Heroic_Laguna, SenpaiDessus, DHHatesYou, tazzyboyishere, Geosanta, Gavin_Sykes, Tweeeked, Swarles_Barkley, McBonesII, Xfirehazard417X, lordloki12, MasterChief1097, Blue_Target, Dark_Side_Taker, Uncle_StB, Majin_Jekku, Mithreindeer and jasonthe123 didn't think Amaterasu could beat Shadow. --- "Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..." "All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..." |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/18/2010 10:12:15 PM | message detail |
This match says very little about that. Sandal is just pathetic. Sandal/Mr. Driller. Who ya got? I'd be nervous about picking Fawful anyway though. I knew Fawful's victory was far from guaranteed, but I chose him because: 1) He's possibly the most well-known original character from the Mario RPGs, even surpassing Geno (in my opinion, anyway). 2) He's the main villain of Bowser's Inside Story, which is a recent release that sold very well as far as I know. 3) While I don't really like Fawful himself, I can't deny that his character design is bloody awesome. GlaDOS, on the other hand, isn't exactly photogenic. 4) It's a day match, and if I had to guess, the Mario character will have a better ASV than the Portal one. 5) Portal is simply older. ...but based on tonight's match, that last one probably doesn't matter at all. So, I'm feeling even more nervous about a shaky selection; I think the only matches that make me more nervous are the Drake ones and Shepard/Ellis (and possibly Soap/Big Daddy). --- I've been Shadowned. Goodbye, perfect bracket. CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC) |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 10:13:06 PM | message detail |
Sandal/Mr. Driller. Who ya got? Funny, I told KP on AIM earlier that I'd probably take Mr. Driller over Sandal at this point! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 1/18/2010 10:21:16 PM | message detail |
From: creativename | #117 Uhhh.. static votebases will DEFINITELY have more power over 4-ways. That was the reasoning. I briefly considered HK, but I switched to L-block just because he's almost more of a Tetris character than a "joke" in my opinion. There are plenty of Tetris fans and it basically turns the poll into a GAMES poll. People who like the Tetris game will vote for the block over a character they may not care much about/they've never met (having not played KOTOR) such as HK-47. --- "You guys have electricity? How do you manage that?" "We have 2 giant hamsters running on a massive wheel in our secret underground cave..." |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/18/2010 10:22:21 PM | message detail |
How on earth did Mr. Driller get in a contest anyway? If they needed an extra Namco character, they should have chosen Dr. Dan! --- I've been Shadowned. Goodbye, perfect bracket. CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC) |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 10:23:20 PM | message detail |
2002
didn't have formal nominations like we have now, that's why. It's also
why Serious Sam got a higher seed than Mega Man and Sephiroth. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/18/2010 10:35:13 PM | message detail |
2002 didn't have formal nominations like we have now, that's why. I thought that was the case, but I wasn't really sure. But still... Mr. Driller? Why not Dig Dug or Mappy? Granted, they probably would have lost to Sam too, but at least their games aren't rubbish! On a side note, I just noticed how few brackets chose Amaterasu > Shadow. Looks like some of you really lucked out! --- I've been Shadowned. Goodbye, perfect bracket. CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC) |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/18/2010 10:42:29 PM | message detail |
The "nominations" in 2002 consisted of one topic on Current Events. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ This is good... isn't it? |
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 1/18/2010 10:47:51 PM | message detail |
What's this about a podcast? It's a weekly podcast hosted by Ngamer64 and Ed Bellis about the contest: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53092080 http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/The_Show --- "Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..." "All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..." |
creativename | Posted 1/18/2010 10:58:24 PM | message detail |
No, only the last 3 matches are 24 hours. Oh wow. Snake has a great chance then. Darn - I don't want to see Sephiroth lose there. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/18/2010 11:01:42 PM | message detail |
He's have a great chance at night. The MGS day vote is puke-worthy. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/6259/1246921928837.jpg |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/18/2010 11:03:06 PM | message detail |
Well,
so many people took that upset for a reason. By the time it rolls
around, Snake should have had time to build up steam (it was when Kirby
hulked up in 08 and when L-Block really started hitting its stride in
07). If a rallied Snake can fend off Cloud for 24 hours in a 4way, a
rallied Snake can fend off Sephiroth for 12 hours in any format. It's
certainly possible. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/18/2010 11:07:02 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #139 Snake's day vote seems to have improved noticeably since Brawl, while FFVII's has gotten worse in general. At this point, I'd say the only way a day vote even favors Seph is because he might not get anti-voted as bad in the opening period. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
charmander6000 | Posted 1/18/2010 11:12:31 PM | message detail |
The vote totals are terrible here, we are heading towards about 51k. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 2/4 - Today's Winners: Luigi and Shadow |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/18/2010 11:18:07 PM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3305&type=2&seconds=60&max=0 The best match Snake ever had and he still went down big time during the day. He also needed the two FF7 characters to cannibalize each other. 1v1, I doubt he repeats this. --- "I want to crawl into a hole and die every time I read a lihlih post." -FFDragon |
CrocNRoll | Posted 1/18/2010 11:37:36 PM | message detail |
This is the dumbest match in history. --- Future Winner of the Ed Bellis Award for Excellence in the Field of Ed Bellis |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/18/2010 11:39:14 PM | message detail |
From: CrocNRoll | #144 yeah.. in terms of characters in a single poll, I can't think of any dumber then a cube and a mentally retarded dwarf --- http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism |
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 1/19/2010 12:55:24 AM | message detail |
Agreed, I'm going to bed so I can wake up to something that doesn't suck. --- "You guys have electricity? How do you manage that?" "We have 2 giant hamsters running on a massive wheel in our secret underground cave..." |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/19/2010 1:32:54 AM | message detail |
HOLY ****ING CUBE! --- I love it. |
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/19/2010 1:37:47 AM | message detail |
Cube is ROLLINGGG<Michael Cole> --- Elephant Talk: A New Kind Of Music Blog! http://elephantmusictalk.blogspot.com/ |
Swarles_Barkley | Posted 1/19/2010 2:40:46 AM | message detail |
Anyway,
I still don't get why people talk about how jokes would do worse in
this format than 4-ways - double the characters or halve the poll time,
either way, the net effect is more or less the same: "static" type
votebases will have very similar levels of power over the outcome. I disagree with this. This assumes that all the joke-voters return to vote for both matches, whereas none of the non-joke voters do. I'm not sure why you would think that, in fact I'd say the net effect isn't really influenced by the poll duration, just the number of characters in it, in which case joke characters will still have it "twice" as hard. As far as rallying or stuffing goes, I'd say this format actually makes it even more difficult than 24-hour 1-1. Think about what a stuffer is up against: the regular gameFAQs voters. Now we are clearly seeing these matches get more votes per hour than 24-hour matches (even 4-ways). A rallier, or especially a stuffer, should get roughly 50% of the amount of votes in a 12-hour match as he would in a 24-hour match, but he's up against 60-70% of the gameFAQs 24-hour total, if not more. This puts him at a relative disadvantage. The first "24-hour" match (Link-Thrall and Alucard-Magus) got 125 000 votes, the last one is already up to 135 000 votes, and we all know how much of a vote draw Link is. Who knows how high these 12-hour vote totals will get once everyone realizes there are 2 matches a day. --- Hello, Dexter Morgan |
General_Zimbad | Posted 1/19/2010 2:54:15 AM | message detail |
Gotta love the weighted companion cube :D --- These are my friends, I have there backs, they are the closest things to blood that I have!!! The sun sets forever on blackwater park! <3333 Parkway Drive |
