GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 784

UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 9:03:55 PM | message detail
Thank god for 12 hour matches.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
Every breath leaves me one less to my last.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/17/2010 9:04:17 PM | message detail
I need a burger.
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Not Wylvane
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 9:04:59 PM | message detail
12-hour matches are better than 24-hour matches.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 1/17/2010 9:06:04 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #003
12-hour matches are better than 24-hour matches.


Seriously, we should do these more often. The close matches are intense for the perfect amount of time, and the blowout matches are over in half the time.
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TGtBatU could only consist of its soundtrack and its final standoff, and it would still be better than most movies.- EndofDisc1 on The Good the Bad and the Ugly
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 9:13:38 PM | message detail
12 hour matches are better for squashes like these, but close matches I could handle for 24 hours.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
voltch | Posted 1/18/2010 4:38:44 AM | message detail
yeah for squash and curbstomp matches 12 hour is ideal but 24 was great for some of the most epic comeback we've ever seen.
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Shakes Fist!
raytan7585 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:15:16 AM | message detail
Yeah, I like the 12-hours match better.

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raytan. The Cream of Terra Branford Fanboyism.
Haruhi/Mikuru vs Kyon/Koizumi: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GskPbsYVyKQ
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/18/2010 8:16:54 AM | message detail
Maybe we could change it so that if a match is withing 3000 votes at the 12-hour mark, it extends to the full 24 hours?

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/18/2010 8:17:04 AM | message detail
12 hour matches could be the end of the Noble Nine.

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GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:17:08 AM | message detail
Guys..shh...

Bacon: Well, I wonder what the next contest should be? *checks B8*
B8: WE LOVE 12 HOUR MATCHES!
Bacon: *makes 256-character 4-way 12-hour match contest*
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:18:49 AM | message detail
256 characters......I guess we'll be seeing stuff like Guybrush vs. CATS.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/18/2010 8:21:40 AM | message detail
I still can't get over sballen put CATS in the vote-in polls. Cjay would never do that.
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:22:28 AM | message detail
Guybrush/CATS/Jade Curtiss/The Dog
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
paulg235 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:24:49 AM | message detail
256 entrant 6 hour matches FTW.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/18/2010 8:29:13 AM | message detail
Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

Bowser deserves to be there for not having lost to a non-noble nine in 1v1 =p

Also everyone should honer CATS in thier sig like me <_<
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 8:30:40 AM | message detail
Bowser deserves to be there for not having lost to a non-noble nine in 1v1 =p

That changes this year!
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 8:31:47 AM | message detail
You see, joke characters are funnier when they're weak, ineffective, useless, and not actually that funny!

Never change, Board 8.
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Not Wylvane
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:33:27 AM | message detail
CATS? Weak?

He was beating the guy who went on to be contest champion until Cloud pulled some of the most outrageous stuffing in contest history. I mean, how do you go from losing to winning with 86%?
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 8:33:41 AM | message detail
Still think we should update the Noble Nine to L-Block, ? Block, Jay Solano, Vincent, Auron, Kirby, WCC, Mario, and Samus (the latter two still undefeated by non-N9ers).
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Not Wylvane
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/18/2010 8:35:44 AM | message detail
Guybrush/CATS/Jade Curtiss/The Dog

The Dog > uh... CATS.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
paulg235 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:35:52 AM | message detail
But L's been defeated by Pikachu, who lost to MC, who lost to Dante, who lost to Yoshi, who lost to Sora, who lost to Squall, who lost to Mewtwo, who lost to- you get the idea.

Presonally, I think we should decide on a Top 20.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash and co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it" - Mer telling us his dream
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 8:43:00 AM | message detail
Pikachu lost to Noble Niners last year. He just had a Snake-level boost since 2007 that let him beat #3 character of all time L-Block, making Pikachu the third-strongest character on the site.

So replace L-Block with Pikachu. That's the current Noble Nine.
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Not Wylvane
ToadYoshi | Posted 1/18/2010 8:44:33 AM | message detail
I actually don't mind that Bacon put some of the joke characters n the vote-in and they missed. It basically makes the board prioritize joke characters: going strictly by noms, probably too many get in, and you can't really take them out at random because that would be unfair to their fans. So if you make them earn their spot, a few will get in (Missingno) and a few will be left out (CATS). It's the CATS fans fault for not being able to push him to third or fourth in a twelve way poll, where his massive board/joke fanbase vote should theoretically have the most influence. The vote-ins were a great idea in that they gave even more characters the opportunity to ave their fair shake, while efficiently weeding out bad fodder. As for CATS, don't worry-he (and his fans) will be back.
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Jinjo for Summer Contest 2008
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/18/2010 8:44:49 AM | message detail
Top 20

Link
Cloud
Seph
Mario
Snake
Samus
Mega Man
Crono
Sonic
Vincent
Squall
Bowser
Auron
Tifa
Zelda
Luigi
Sora
Kirby
Pikachu
Mega Man X

?
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 8:44:49 AM | message detail
And I think Guybrush could actually win that fourpack. He had a remake and ToMI this year. It was his biggest year since the third Monkey Island game!

Guybrush to make a Drake-level boost and avoid getting doubled by Vincent!
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Not Wylvane
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:45:06 AM | message detail
But there's nothing impressive about that. The whole point of the Noble Nine is that the same 9 characters from 2002 have never lost. It's not about strength, it's about how an arbitrary group of 9 characters are 126-0 or something like that.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LinkLegend27 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:45:53 AM | message detail
Snake > Sephiroth Upset Train full speed ahead

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09-10 New York Jets, The Franchez AFC CHAMPIONSHIP-BOUND
09-10 Boston Celtics
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:47:13 AM | message detail
We're never going to agree on a top 20, though it's fun to discuss it.
---
6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/18/2010 8:47:47 AM | message detail
the noble nine is still alive also maybe MMX should be replaced by MC on that list I made. Maybe also Dante.
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/18/2010 8:50:24 AM | message detail
Top 25 <_< no real order

Link
Cloud
Seph
Mario
Snake
Samus
Mega Man
Crono
Sonic
Vincent
Squall
Bowser
Auron
Tifa
Zelda
Luigi
Sora
Kirby
Pikachu
Mega Man X
Dante
Yoshi
L-Block??
Zack
Master Chief

Seems good enough.
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
hellfire104 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:51:14 AM | message detail
What is the consensus on Shadow V Ammy?
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Point Total: 4/5
My Bracket Says: Shadow
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 8:51:50 AM | message detail
Shadow's the favorite.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 8:51:51 AM | message detail
While you can debate whether four-ways were legit with Vincent beating Crono or if LFF ****ed over Sonic to get beat by Auron and Kirby, or how Sephiroth was crushed so bad he lost to Kirby and how all those matches were iffy, the N9 is still broken to me after L-Block defeated three of the strongest characters on the site. Yeah, joke rally and all that, but you don't see people taking that away from Mario after he defeated Cloud in 2002 in one of the craziest matches ever.

Plus people will just continue to make excuses for the N9 anyway. If Kirby edges out Sonic in a close match, people will complain that Sonic would've won in a 24-hour setting and that this wasn't a true N9 breaker, much like with Vincent/Crono.

People are so into the N9 being the N9 that even if we got a 24-hour 1v1 match where a N9er loses, people will still claim it doesn't count because of rally votes or whatever other excuses they come up with.

The Noble Nine is an archaic term from the old days that veterans cling onto to remain relevant. It's been dead since 2007, since it's been proven that in the right situations even a Tetris block could defeat them. Hell, it could've been considered broken after Jay Solano beat Link in that bonus match!
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Not Wylvane
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/18/2010 8:53:35 AM | message detail
I think you're thinking about this too hard.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 8:54:41 AM | message detail
Well, I at least am drawing the line at 1v1s. Like I said, it's not about strength. If a Noble Niner gets rallied against by Valve and loses, it's over. If a Noble Niner only stays alive because of an extremely lopsided picture, it's alive. The N9 probably weren't the 9 strongest characters in 2003 or 2004.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Master Moltar | Posted 1/18/2010 9:00:23 AM | message detail
go Shadow
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Luigi > MK (4/4)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:00:34 AM | message detail
Amaterasu 52.94% 18
Shadow the Hedgehog 47.06% 16
TOTAL VOTES 34

Close so far
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 9:00:41 AM | message detail
It's a close one!
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/18/2010 9:00:43 AM | message detail

From: Master Moltar | #036
go Shadow


ew

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.
Ness26 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:00:53 AM | message detail
Board vote goes to Ama, right? <_<
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No amount of planning will ever replace dumb luck.
KingBartz | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:04 AM | message detail
Amaterasu 50% 97
Shadow the Hedgehog 50% 97
TOTAL VOTES 194

o mah gaaawd!
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I used to have a good sig. Now my account is only a shadow of its former glory.
Nomchan | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:11 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Amaterasu 70%

7
Shadow the Hedgehog 30%

3
TOTAL VOTES 10
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~ Birth by Sleep ~
A flat chest is a status symbol, it has immeasurable value. - Mayumi-chan
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:12 AM | message detail
We might have a good one on our hands.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
voltch | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:34 AM | message detail
Ammy got the board vote, but looks like shadow's gonna make the first move
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Shakes Fist!
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:35 AM | message detail
76.19% for Luigi.

Lower than I expected.
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Not Wylvane
shutdown56 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:36 AM | message detail
When the kiddies come back from school, shadow will dominate.
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The only honorable death is one that leaves a crater.
http://i49.tinypic.com/2s9ou0w.png
GaryOak151 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:44 AM | message detail
goooo shadow
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Improving the quality of the board since 2002 4/4, Next pick: Luigi
http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/signatures/wc-s
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:46 AM | message detail
Heh, neither character can even get a double digit lead. This is great.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
red sox 777 | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:48 AM | message detail
Liking Shadow a bit right now.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/18/2010 9:01:57 AM | message detail

From: shutdown56 | #046
When the kiddies come back from school, shadow will dominate.


National holiday.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.