GameFAQs Contests

thrall did better then expected, and western games in general do better in goty polls these days. Don't tell me you think 5 years ago that a western RPG would go almost even with A nintendo all-star game and a metal gear solid game!
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

From: Same Orphanage | #350
I wouldn't call MMX unknown, we have a pretty good idea of where he lies, somewhere between upper near-elite and Mega Man.

I wouldn't give him enough credit to call him an upper near-elite quite yet. I ain't takin' him over Squall, Vincent, Auron, Sora, Tifa, or Ganondorf.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

This implies that there is 1 point in time where vote intake suddenly changes spectacularly. If it is 9AM, you expect the vote to rise. But what about 8:55? In fact, hasn't it been rising little by little since 6:00? Any 5-minute interval in the ASV will surely have more votes than the mean for the match, but will the difference between, say, 15.45 and 15.40 have a higher chance of being positive than the difference between 05:30 and 05:25?

I decided to test this further, with a very crude test that nonetheless should be pretty convincing. I looked at the last 5 rounds of the character battle in 2008, excluded weekend matches, and looked at the difference between the update immediately before 3 PM and the update immediately after. In a very small number of matches, the time length of the update was different (i.e. 5 minutes vs. 6 minutes) so I tossed those out too.

The results: Out of 21 remaining matches, the mean change was +26.57, the standard deviation was 39.81, and the standard error was 8.69, giving a 99.69% chance that the actual mean is greater than 0.

In 14 matches there was a gain across the 3 PM line, and in 7 matches there was a loss. Actually, 2 of those losses came on Election Day and Veterans Day, so if you toss those as not being real school-day matches, the evidence becomes even more supportive for there being a jump at 3 PM.

Of course in non-ASV matches the trends are much more gradual, but the time relationship is still there, so each update is not quite random, even after first differencing away the number of votes in the previous update.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

western games in general do better in goty polls these days.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1877
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"I love to reload during a battle! There's nothing like the feeling of slamming a long silver bullet into a well greased chamber."--Ocelot

By the way Red Sox, stock is handled in the same way. Without a doubt, the stock market rises in value over time. Yet at any one point in time, there is an equal chance of going up at the next juncture than there is of going down.

Ah, but the contest has much much much more clearly defined trends than the stock market, and with consistent up AND down trends to boot, whereas the only really consistent trend with the market is that over a very long period of time, stocks will go up. A random walk the contest is not.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Fact/Fiction: There will be at least one character seeded 13th or lower that will be a round 1 bracket favorite.

If so, who?
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

who are you THEVinceYoung
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

From: THEVinceYoung | #356
Fact/Fiction: There will be at least one character seeded 13th or lower that will be a round 1 bracket favorite.

If so, who?

Fact:
Mega Man X (likely)
Ken (likely)
Liquid Snake (kinda likely)
Sub-Zero (kinda likely)
Jecht (likely)
Ellis (who the hell knows honestly)
Big Daddy (kinda likely)

At least one of those will be a bracket favorite with the casuals.
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Not Wylvane

From: THEVinceYoung | #356
Fact/Fiction: There will be at least one character seeded 13th or lower that will be a round 1 bracket favorite.

If so, who?

Uh

*points to the current match*
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

You may kill me, but you may never insult me! Who am I?!

...

...I'm Captain Jack Sparrow.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Leonhart?
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

I wouldn't be surprised if Price is the favorite. Casual bait, and Mega Man traditionally has awful casual bracket support.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

Oh right, Leonhart would make sense since he's a Titans fan
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

There's always people posting on alts whom I do not recognize.......well mostly EC.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Thats why I try to keep my user name in my sig in some way
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

I can always recognize EC's alts, for whatever the reason. His posting style is...unique, to say the least.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Thats why I try to keep my user name in my sig in some way

I do that too for my alts.
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You wish you had User ID 5000000? Sorry, but I have it.
~Luster Soldier~

Thanks for that, Perilous_War.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, KrahenProphet

Good god X, what a disappointment! At least I only expected 70% (unlike Ngamer who expected 76%!).

Okay, the morning is the only time I will be able to check on these day matches. Has Price's day vote been beastly?

This match has had pretty much the most even trends ever. Barely any movement since I first checked it 8 hours ago.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

The match has had nothing but day vote, how should we know
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Over/Under: This match finishes with 80,000 votes.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Over baby
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

It's funny, there was a time where we had 24 hour matches fail to reach that number
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Ah, but the contest has much much much more clearly defined trends than the stock market, and with consistent up AND down trends to boot, whereas the only really consistent trend with the market is that over a very long period of time, stocks will go up. A random walk the contest is not.

You are correct - this is not a Wiener process/Brownian motion with a positive mean. The actual populations are different at different times - the underlying population of voters have different characteristics (age, country, etc.) which are not random over time.

In the stock market there really is no such thing as "momentum", but in these polls there certainly is.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Match V: (3) Luigi vs. (14) Meta Knight

Information

Name: Luigi
Game/Series: Super Mario Bros.
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 3

Name: Meta Knight
Game/Series: Kirby
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 1

Analysis

One cosmetic change SBAllen made to the 16 seed bracket is that he switched the 3/14 and 6/11 matches around, it makes sense since the higher seeds should be on the outside of the eight-pack. As for the actual match this isn’t about who would win, but by how much as the 12 hour matches show off their advantage by ending boring matches earlier than usual.

Luigi was able to defeat Kirby back in 2006 and while some people would debate the reverse I think it is clear that Meta Knight won’t be reaching him. While Meta Knight was unable to reach the expectations of beating L-Block, which if you think about it was a bit unrealistic he did get about 41% on Ryu and given I would take Luigi to just win over Ryu it seems like a good place to start with.

Of course with any Nintendo match SFF always has to be considered though I am hesitant about calling this a SFF match. One of the bigger reasons Nintendo has overlap is because of the Super Smash Bros. series. Meta Knight is one of the most used characters in Brawl for both competitive and casual play. While some Nintendo matches don’t follow that progression huge fan favourites such as Fox, Marth and Ike were able to avoid most SFF against Yoshi, Donkey Kong and Pikachu respectively. The only difference here is that the gap between Luigi and Meta Knight is arguably bigger than those three.

If Luigi was to SFF Meta Knight I expect Luigi to reach the high 60s and maybe even break 70%; the lower bound is for Meta Knight to break 40%. Personally I think the SFF will be minimal and the night vote not being Super Smash Bros. friendly may end up hurting Meta Knight.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Luigi > Meta Knight

charmander6000’s Prediction: Luigi wins, 62.52% - 37.48%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X

Rate the Match Pics: Luigi vs Meta Knight and Ammy vs Shadow

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53118770

for the two of you that care
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(|| ' ' ||) Visio Vestri - Character Battle VIII Fanfiction Project
. /|_|\ http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=53091233

Man, those Luigi and Ammy pics sure are SEXY
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

im expecting MK to look a little better then people expect here. Like about 40%. A lot of casuals seem to think he has a chance, so maybe there will be a lot of bracket voting for him.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Yeah, for some reason, I have a feeling Luigi/Meta Knight is a match where the board owns the casuals. If Meta Knight can resist SFF, he could definitely break 40%. He's probably worth that much on Luigi before SFF.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

And 80,000 votes breached! I think people are starting to catch on to 2 matches per day. Quick learners for once! They can't pick up on ORDER MATTERS, but they can pick up on two matches per day!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

i wonder if we can get 100k in day matches in later rounds
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Go surprise tripling by Luigi!

My long overdue Luigi > Link pick from 2003 will finally come into fruition!
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Not Wylvane

Just wait 'till Snake/Sephiroth.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

MK's proven he can do well enough with SFF resisting, it's going to be more of a matter of testing his one-on-one appeal -- he's never had more than 22.61% before. If that doesn't matter, MK might break 40%. If it does or if Luigi SFF's him harder than expected, he'll be closer to 35%...but I don't think it'll be any closer to a doubling than that.


MMX with 53.66%.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

I'm predicting Price with the brackets. It'll be hard for the casuals to side with the 13 seed over a 4, methinks.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

I'm hungry.
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Not Wylvane

Ocelot nearly did it as a 12 against Pokemon. It's possible, but I won't be surprised either way. This division might be the toughest first division in terms of bracket splits. I have a feeling we're going to see a few more matches where neither side gets more than 60% bracket support. Ammy/Shadow and Drake/Boss ought to be the same.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Hayabusa as a three-seed barely had more support than Jill as a fourteen-seed back in 2004. It's not unprecedented.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

Luigi 81.82%

9
Meta Knight 18.18%

2
TOTAL VOTES 11

Poor MK
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Luigi > MK (4/4)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Vote Accepted
Luigi 86.67%

13
Meta Knight 13.33%

2
TOTAL VOTES 15

Holy Luigi board vote
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

go go go Luigi
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Oracle Challenge 2k10
Today's prediction: Luigi with 66.14% Status:

Luigi 75.44% 43
Meta Knight 24.56% 14
TOTAL VOTES 57

Luigi with the board vote.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

so much for 40%
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Whoa, 74.34% bracket support for X.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Its over. Next.

/joking
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These are my friends, I have there backs, they are the closest things to blood that I have!!!
The sun sets forever on blackwater park! <3333 Parkway Drive

oh wow, mega man had nearly 75%
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Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Oh ya! Oh ya!
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Meta Knight will finish higher than this.

Luigi was even leading Squall at this point!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....