GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 783
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 11:29:40 AM | message detail |
Tidus's
competition last year was DK and and Tails, also in the "how can we
choke this year?" department. In round 2, Tidus went from even with a
cube to getting his doors blown off. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ XFD rofl bad u mad? QQ moar |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 1/17/2010 11:30:35 AM | message detail |
I
have Shadow winning too, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if
Amaterasu won. I also have Big Daddy > Soap... but after seeing
Price do pretty well here, I think that was a boneheaded decision. :\ --- Poor Magus. CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC) |
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/17/2010 11:31:39 AM | message detail |
Tidus went even with Cube. Cube beat Mega Man. LOL 4-ways. --- GT: TriggerTRE "Nothing is true. Everything is permitted." |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 11:32:46 AM | message detail |
Hmm, Ammy/Shadow is a day match. That makes me feel a little better about Shadow. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 11:33:27 AM | message detail |
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 1/17/2010 2:31:39 PM | #203 I agree on LOL 4-ways, but Tidus got blown the **** out last year. Price could beat him. So could Soap if he got a helmet picture. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ GENESIC EMERALD TAGER BUSTAAAAAAAAAAH |
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2010 11:34:28 AM | message detail |
This
could be a case of MM > MMX, but we also shouldn't rule out that the
Mega Man franchise may be dropping. Remember how poorly the MM-games
did in BGE2? We also see Mega Man with a three-seed and MMX only had
enough nominations to reach the vote-in polls... ...with how Price is doing on MMX and knowing Tidus got 38.39% against Mega Man in 2008 (four-way, but still), I'm interested in seeing what Cid can do on Mega Man now. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 11:37:03 AM | message detail |
In round 2, Tidus went from even with a cube to getting his doors blown off. Hey, sounds like Ryu against the Block! And Tidus has never been a bad performer. An underachiever, yes, but never anywhere near the fodder line. 2007 seemed to indicate that he's not far behind Vivi, who we accept as a solid midcarder and someone who almost beat Zero last year. Plus, that loss to Pikachu doesn't seem as bad now as it did when it first happened. And man, Ulti is the classic overreactionist. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 11:37:42 AM | message detail |
And Red could outdo Price here next round, and I won't be surprised. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/17/2010 11:38:46 AM | message detail |
Cid will easily break 45% on Mega Man. --- GT: TriggerTRE "Nothing is true. Everything is permitted." |
TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 1/17/2010 11:38:49 AM | message detail |
Oh, dear, I seem to have started something strange... Anyway, I checked in on the wiki, and sure enough, Red > Ocelot ranks among the closest matches ever, the 182-vote margin good for 19th overall and 11th in the 1v1 format. Hopefully we can get some more exciting ones like that. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 11:40:54 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 1/17/2010 2:37:03 PM | #207 This really has nothing to do with Tidus. The stats topic has been in denial about the casual site shift for years, which I've kind of been saying for a couple months. With the way this topic speaks of Altair, Drake, Ezio, et al, you'd think they're all about to get 3% in their matches or something. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ Make me a perfect lie. |
AppreciateTrees | Posted 1/17/2010 11:41:17 AM | message detail |
Your crazy if you think Amaterasu is going to beat Shadow O_O --- 'The law' says I can't douse myself in butterscotch perfume and give surprise foot massages to anyone who walks past an open sewer grate, but I do it anyway. |
Classadelphia | Posted 1/17/2010 11:41:47 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #207 he called Mario > Samus didn't you hear --- Class, Class, Classadelphia. |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 11:43:33 AM | message detail |
So
how much are we expecting Luigi to SFF Meta-Knight tonight? MK got
close to 42% on Ryu last year, and Luigi probably isn't far above Ryu.
We've seen Smash stand up to Mario very well before, and Meta-Knight
established himself the last 2 years as the strongest pure-Smash
character (Fox should be getting a lot of support from his own games
too). Could we see similar numbers to the SMB/SSB match here (meaning
Luigi would get low 60s.)? --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
voltch | Posted 1/17/2010 11:45:26 AM | message detail |
I keep forgetting luigi is in this division, damn is his path uninteresting. --- Shakes Fist! |
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/17/2010 11:48:16 AM | message detail |
Price is just overperforming. MW2 is hot right now and he's the most recognizable character in the MW franchise. --- GT: TriggerTRE "Nothing is true. Everything is permitted." |
LOLContests | Posted 1/17/2010 11:52:15 AM | message detail |
With
the way this topic speaks of Altair, Drake, Ezio, et al, you'd think
they're all about to get 3% in their matches or something. Look, Drake completely bombed in 2008. If he hadn't he probably would have way more brackets behind him. I find it bizarre that someone can have so much cognitive dissonance so as to completely ignore this factor and blame it on other things. And Altair is just as popular as Kratos was in 2005. There is nothing there to indicate a site shift of any dramatic magnitude. Western characters are doing better because: A) Due to a lack of Japanese games on the market there are more of them. B) Due to 128 characters we are getting more of them instead of the Japanese characters which usually benefit from rallies. --- "The black wind howls... One among you will shortly perish... "--Magus Yesmar |
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2010 11:52:22 AM | message detail |
Altair
was between Duke and Niko in 2008, Drake's still untested since
Uncharted 2 but blew in 2008, and Ezio's going to be one-and-done
unless he's weaker than Altair somehow. Pressing for a casual shift in
the midst of our second day is pretty ridiculous at this point. There
are signs here and there, sure, but considering we still have a LOT of
contest to go and the "evidence" we've seen so far can be attributed to
several other factors (one-on-one instead of four-way, half-matches,
wrong expectations =/= the site's completely different, etc.), let's
not start cramming **** down each others' throats about how we're all
in denial. We're all trying to figure this out, and automatically
assuming site shifts are the answer isn't the best way to go about this. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 11:53:56 AM | message detail |
Votals: Link/Thrall: 60599 Magus/Alucard: 65187 Red/Ocelot: 58208 Magus/Alucard beats Link/Thrall by virtue of being a day match, but it's fairly close. Probably because both Magus and Alucard have always been horrible at bringing in the votes even when they were stronger. MMX/Thrall is currently on pace for just under 80000 votes going off of yesterday's trends. Perhaps the voters are figuring out that there are 2 matches a day. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
LOLContests | Posted 1/17/2010 11:55:35 AM | message detail |
Magus/Alucard beats Link/Thrall by virtue of being a day match, but it's fairly close. The halfway point on the weekends is ~11:45 AM, so if anything Magus/Alucard is at a disadvantage. Their numbers are really impressive. Either the poll breaks 130,000 if it's 24 hours, or a lot of people realized right away that there are two polls. --- "The black wind howls... One among you will shortly perish... "--Magus Yesmar |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 11:56:51 AM | message detail |
I
pretty much agree with Ulti, Yoblazer, and Albion's western/casual site
shift theory, and have since the bracketmaking period. But yeah, we're
only 4 matches into the contest, and there's not much contest evidence
(as opposed to GOTY poll evidence) for it yet. Let's see how all these
high-seed western characters do. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 11:58:06 AM | message detail |
The
halfway point on the weekends is ~11:45 AM, so if anything
Magus/Alucard is at a disadvantage. Their numbers are really
impressive. Either the poll breaks 130,000 if it's 24 hours, or a lot
of people realized right away that there are two polls. The advantage of a day match over a night match is not that in a 24 hour match, more people vote in the day section, but that there are more people who are on the site only during the day than only during the night. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 11:58:26 AM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #211 I'm not even talking about that, but a lot of these western characters aren't in positions where they can excel anyway. About the only exceptions are Soap and Big Daddy, and only one of them can do anything. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2010 11:58:58 AM | message detail |
I
think MK's going to fend off SFF nicely; he was able to beat Peach and
Wario-with-Fox pre-SSBB and seems to be a hit in SSBB. Bowser-post-VC
and Luigi weren't able to SFF Kirby either, so MK should land in the
high thirties...might even stay over 40%, though that's a longshot. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 11:59:59 AM | message detail |
Luigi's a bigger deal than Peach or Wario. People actually like Luigi! --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2010 12:00:24 PM | message detail |
Luigi Numbah 1 --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2010 12:05:58 PM | message detail |
Right,
but it was pre-SSBB and few of us expected that from him then. Also, MK
did win that vote-in poll with Marth and Peach in it too. MK's looking
like he's got enough Nintendo-pull to hold his own in these small
percentage battles. I wonder how much it'll change when facing his
strongest Nintendo-opponent yet one-on-one, but he shouldn't get
destroyed or anything. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 1/17/2010 12:07:02 PM | message detail |
The
other difference between AM and PM--the overall vote totals. We're just
about a quarter of the way through the current match, and the total
votes for this one are already above Red's winning total from the AM
match. Is this one going to taper off, or are we going to see a trend
where the PM matches have a higher votal than the AMs? |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 12:07:13 PM | message detail |
I'd
wager pre-SSBB is actually more favorable for Brawl characters than
post-SSBB. Hype is a big deal, especially hype on that level. Meta
Knight won't get tripled or anything, but I'll be pretty surprised if
he breaks 40%. I figure 65/35 or so. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2010 12:08:19 PM | message detail |
MK
is one of the few characters where Post-Brawl matters more. He's
basically the face of being overpowered and broken for the game - and
that does wonders for Marth and Fox! --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 12:08:38 PM | message detail |
By
the way, the percentages for this match have been pretty stable after
MMX's board vote. Haven't been seeing much of that CoD day vote yet. --- "Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 12:09:34 PM | message detail |
For
every other SSBB character, yes, but no one knew what the tier list
would be like before the game came out and Meta-Knight has established
himself as the easy #1 since the game came out. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 12:10:11 PM | message detail |
The vote totals being really high pleases me. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ "Capcom aren't bad people, they're just IDIOTS." -Yahtzee |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 12:10:57 PM | message detail |
Well,
HaRRicH is talking about pre-SSBB as if Brawl didn't really help Meta
Knight beat Peach and Wario in 2007. At least, that's what it seems
like to me. I don't understand the point of mentioning that it was
pre-Brawl though. As long as he was announced for the game at the time,
then he'd be the beneficiary of a Brawl boost. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 12:11:34 PM | message detail |
Fun Fact: Meta Knight is Sakurai's favorite character in gaming. They actually nerfed
MK before the game came out. Bnado used to last longer, >B would go
all the way across Final D, UpB covered more distance, etc. --- Q: How do you find Carnegie Hall? A: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 12:11:38 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #233 Yeah, I imagine vote totals will gradually increase as more people realize it's two matches per day. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2010 12:12:32 PM | message detail |
Sakurai also voiced DDD. DDD is in the Top 5 or so. --- KrahenProphet lived up to his name. |
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/17/2010 12:14:04 PM | message detail |
Meta Knight will break 40% --- GT: TriggerTRE "Nothing is true. Everything is permitted." |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 12:14:16 PM | message detail |
I
was just making a point about votes, because Bacon is dead wrong on
"4ways generate more traffic". Site traffic is almost entirely
dependent on gaming help, not the polls. --- "How's this for a headline? 'French Fries' " -James French, Last Words |
L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 1/17/2010 12:14:53 PM | message detail |
Still predicting Lightning, Cid, and Missingno all pulling off the upsets against their N9 "competition"! --- Not Wylvane |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 12:16:40 PM | message detail |
Found my Oracle. I agree Meta will do well: Link with 88.88% Alucard with 50.78% Revolver Ocelot with 52.45% Mega Man X with 70.25% Luigi with 58.26% Amaterasu with 53.33% Weighted Companion Cube with 62.00% Nathan Drake with 55.55% Sonic the Hedgehog with 75.00% Knuckles the Echidna with 68.55% Ganondorf with 61.44% Ken Masters with 60.00% Kirby with 57.25% GlaDOS with 53.19% Vivi with 56.50% Altair with 51.09% I also thought Price would do pretty well for himself, only ended up being off by 4% or so. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´ This was a triumph. |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 12:19:05 PM | message detail |
From
the electoral college topic: Ocelot won the Electoral College.
Surprising, considering how much he won by in Europe while still losing
the popular vote worldwide and in the US. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2010 12:21:40 PM | message detail |
Just
to go back about the potential site-shift one more time, then I'll
leave it alone: I don't mean to actively disagree with it. Heck, we're
due a site-shift, especially since our two major ones in
contest-history were 2003 and 2005. Considering we have entered a new
generation of gaming systems since 2005, had some of the strongest
games since we started having contests, seen old games not by Nintendo
or Square be practically forgotten...I mean, a change is coming if it
hasn't already, and that's saying nothing about Western games. We just don't have much to go on about what it means for our contests at this time or when this shift happened if we've had one. That's why I'm encouraging us to be patient about this and wait it out before we start calling site-shifts like we call matches. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2010 12:30:01 PM | message detail |
Well,
HaRRicH is talking about pre-SSBB as if Brawl didn't really help Meta
Knight beat Peach and Wario in 2007. At least, that's what it seems
like to me. I don't understand the point of mentioning that it was
pre-Brawl though. As long as he was announced for the game at the time,
then he'd be the beneficiary of a Brawl boost. Right, but we've also discussed things like Yoshi and Samus sapping Solid's SSBB-hype. If he can have his hype taken away, MK can too...though Peach is clearly not like Samus or Yoshi on the Nintendo totem-pole. Sephiroth was also in the poll, so I doubt there were a lot of people who voted based on hype -- having a #3-character and a Mario-character who was in SSBM and a bazillion other games should make hype less relevant. Even if we disagree on that point, MK did beat Wario pretty easily despite Seph's strength and Fox taking practically all SSBB-hype away from both of them. --- T E A M C H O C O L A T E http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 12:34:21 PM | message detail |
Yoshi didn't do anything to Snake with Brawl SFF. That was the sprite round. Sephiroth was also in the poll, so I doubt there were a lot of people who voted based on hype -- having a #3-character and a Mario-character who was in SSBM and a bazillion other games should make hype less relevant. Didn't stop Snake from turning around a 57/43 beatdown against Mega Man into a 55/45 whoopin' in his favor. I'm not sure what Sephiroth has to do with anything. He has no ties to Nintendo, so it's not going to affect Brawl hype. And Wario sucks. Doesn't surprise me that Meta Knight beat him. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
voltch | Posted 1/17/2010 12:34:43 PM | message detail |
had MMX started off in the night match, at this stage would he be above or below the 70% mark? --- Shakes Fist! |
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2010 12:35:33 PM | message detail |
He'd
still be below, but he'd be doing better. Mega Man is great at night
until Europe wakes up, and western characters don't tend to do well at
night. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 12:37:10 PM | message detail |
I've
noticed Xbox characters tend to do pretty well in the first couple of
hours too. Then they die overnight when the Europe vote hits. Unlike
Megaman, they come back and hit new highs come the day vote. --- 6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno 'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared.... |
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 12:38:07 PM | message detail |
From
the electoral college topic: Ocelot won the Electoral College.
Surprising, considering how much he won by in Europe while still losing
the popular vote worldwide and in the US. You can blame California for Red's win in the US and places like Canada and Oceania for around the world. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2010 12:39:21 PM | message detail |
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 1/17/2010 3:21:40 PM | #243 I wasn't really trying to sound like a tool, but Board 8 always acts SHOCK AND AWE'D when a casual character does well. Things don't stay static year after year, especially in a medium like video games. --- "There are no fingerprints deep under water, nothing to tie one to a crime And if you seek vengeance, all you need are instruments of pain." -Dethklok |
