GameFAQs Contests

Yeah, it's pretty slow for me, too.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Luigi's pretty much wrapped up a seven-pointer. Due to the weakness of this half-division, this first-round 3-14 essentially decides who gets to face Link in the Hyrule Division Finals. And Luigi's got it. Better put up a good show...

California's currently at 63.75% for Luigi while New York is at 72.12%. Perhaps Kirby won against Luigi and Bowser on the West Coast!
---
6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Meta Knight is winning in North Dakota, but I expect that to change by the end of the match. Must not be very many votes from North Dakota then.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

Fact/Fiction: Luigi will finish with a higher percentage than Mega Man X.
---
"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Fact, thanks to no ASV.
---
Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

Looking at the other East Coast and Western states, there's a pretty large difference here. The East Coast is averaging around 69% while the Western states are averaging around 63%, by a very rough estimate.
---
6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

And Fiction. As long as these West Coast numbers hold up for Meta Knight, he'll continue gaining as the East Coast goes to sleep.
---
6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

I think this result is impressive enough to call Luigi>Link

who's with me

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

From: KamikazePotato | #459
I think this result is impressive enough to call Luigi>Link

who's with me

You don't have to ask me twice!

*bombs away*
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Link is gonna 80-20 Luigi like he did to Yoshi!
---
6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

There's only room enough for one green Nintendo character in this division...

And only one of them has a mustache.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Watch out, Link. It's Weegie time.
---
Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96

From: KamikazePotato | #462
There's only room enough for one green Nintendo character in this division...

And only one of them has a mustache.

Bustin' out the 'Stache stat from Mario & Luigi! I'm likin' it!

Notice how even the games admit Luigi has a better mustache than Mario!
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Of course the games will admit something that is common knowledge!
---
SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
According to the Krahenprophet, Dweebenheimer!

.. So anybody think Price and Meta Knight would have a close match? <________< Luigi > X?!?!?
---
*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Man, I think Shadow/Ammy is the hardest match of the whole contest. =/
---
caps

I didn't really spend much time thinking on it. I have to hand that to The Boss/Drake after GoTY.
---
*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

I picked Amaterasu to win because of how badly Shadow did last year. But then again, he was against LINK.

Surely Link can't SFF a non-Nintendo character that much, right? Right?

well i messed up real bad my predictions % wise, i think in the end X just isn't as strong as classic rockman.
---
Shakes Fist!

I am not too sure myself, Sonic characters have enough reason to perform slightly worse in a 4 way poll just as how CT character have enough reason to perform slightly better in a 4 way poll.

If Shadow can't even pull off a win against Ammy in the day, i can officially say, "lol at myself for having trust in Sonic characters".
---
Snake's Mission "To make it to the finals for the fourth consecutive times"

CT characters performing better in 4-ways? Uhhhhh...

From: MarioSuperstar | #466
.. So anybody think Price and Meta Knight would have a close match? <________< Luigi > X?!?!?

Nah, Meta Knight wins. He's just getting SFF'd. I might take Luigi > X at this point though. Depends on how he does against Red. If Red does better against him than Price does, then I'd probably pull the trigger on Luigi > X.
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Would still pick Meta Knight > Price any day of the week...
---
Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX
http://miniurl.org/ntI

Did I hear someone say Luigi > Link?

Where do I sign up?
---
Not Wylvane

Wait, I just realized that today is MLK Day, so most people are off from school. Shadow's day vote will mean nothing! Bwahahahaahah! Ammy wins!
---
"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

my american history is horrid, so huh, what part of MLK is being celebrated?
The dude's done so much stuff i'm not sure which event is being honoured.
---
Shakes Fist!

The part about MLK, Jr. that is being celebrated is how he finally closed the case on African American Rights (even if parts of the case still remain). Of course, I don't even live in America anymore, so I don't get today off. I do get school off on the 26th though. In addition my school is undergoing a 1 hour delay in school starting time until the end of the month due to lots of fog (smog?).

And I am coming off of playing Super Mario Galaxy and Mario Kart Wii for about an hour here.

Everything in general, I guess.

And yeah, pretty much everyone is off today. We probably won't see much of an ASV at all.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 6 – (6) Amaterasu vs. (11) Shadow the Hedgehog

Moltar’s Analysis

Amaterasu
Ammy, while not strong, has been lucky over the years. She’s faced easy opponents in Round 1, but this is her toughest test yet.

Shadow
45% on Mario is back believe

I took Shadow over Tidus, I took Shadow over Zidane, and I’m taking Shadow over Ammy. I just can’t help it. If Shadow’s in a debatable match, I have to pick him.

It’s not like this is crazy or anything. Shadow has a very good shot at winning here. Sure, he might not be as strong as a certain match showed, but I think he’s still strong enough to beat Ammy.

Shadow, like other Sonic characters, haven’t looked good in four-way matches. A return to the 1v1 format should not only help him here, but also hurt Amaterasu, who I believe benefitted from the four-way format. Okami wasn’t that popular, but it does have a solid fanbase, and that fanbase helped Ammy get past such mighty opponents like Matt the Mii, Little Mac, Ada Wong, Balthier, and Frank West.

However, it’s going to take more than a small but reliable fanbase to get 50% of the vote. Shadow’s at least got the Sonic series and Sonic look-a-like factor going for him. He’s got the more popular game and series on GameFAQs. We’ve also seen Shadow put up good numbers in 1v1 before, and I just don’t trust Ammy to do the same.

Moltar’s Bracket: Shadow > Amaterasu

Moltar’s Prediction: Amaterasu: 44% - Shadow 56%



Lopen’s Analysis

People are doubtin Shadow cause he's been disappointing lately. After seeing Magus's turd, I wouldn't blame em. That bein said, I don't think it's entirely justified. Or rather, it isn't to this degree.

Amaterasu is a cult favorite. She's gonna look better than she should in a four way. Thing is, even forgetting that, she hasn't really looked that good. Narrow wins on Ada goddamn Wong and failing to beat down Frank West. She really doesn't have any great wins under her belt. You can extrapolate her through the strongest one in the poll and say she's a low midcarder, but man I don't buy that. 4 way X-Stats are bad news.

So you know, Shadow might screw me here, but whatever, I'm takin the hedgehog. At least he's managed to look decent in 1v1s in the past (going 50/50 with Tidus was a 'drop' back then but that's still way more than I'd give Amaterasu to do). Total flop in 4 ways, but contrary to Amaterasu I think he's gonna do worse in em... mostly given his draws. I mean it really doesn't help if you market to "badass" and you share the poll with Auron, ya know?

PLAYTIME IS OVAH or whatever those hip kids say.

Lopen's prediction
Shadow with 54.87%



Transience’s Analysis

Here's a weird match. Any conventional thinking has to favour Shadow: he's just far better known. Okami is a game that I doubt 50% of the voters will have played; in fact, I might go as far as to say that only 50% have heard of it. Amaterasu is fighting an uphill battle when it comes to recognizability.

Amaterasu has consistently surpassed expectations in the last two years though. Every time someone expects this cult character to fall, she comes up and surprises us. She beat Ada Wong from the far more recognizable RE4. She put up a really nice number on Crono last year. Meanwhile, Shadow has been pulling a Magus for the last few years: every time you lower your expectations, he still manages to go beneath them. He lost updates to Pyramid Head. He bombed out against Zidane.

I'm picking Shadow here, but these two characters have been going in absolutely opposite directions lately. Amaterasu is a feel-good upset pick that could pan out if only because Shadow gets so many anti-votes from his recent history.

Sonic Team redeemed?
if Shadow loses to a
dog, Sonic is so screwed

transience's prediction: Shadow the Hedgehog with 58.33%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Hmm... currently we're in the middle of the night with Luigi sitting squarely on 66. He took a big jump at the 10 minute mark that made it look as though he might push for 70, but has slowly been trending downward ever since... in other words this is more or less exactly the result we expected with exactly the static Nintendo trends we've grown used to. Not much else to say about this one, so instead I'll use this space to discussion how prediction percentages have looked in the early going. Have you noticed how good the casuals have been this year? 49% of them picked Ocelot despite Red's #5 seed, meaning they were only 200 votes from caving our heads in (only 26% of Gurus didn't trust in Red), and then yesterday a full 74% were smart enough to look past the 4 seed and back MMX. If a smart field like this is the end result of only getting 25k brackets (making this the least popular Character Battle since '02), then I guess I'm all for it! Especially since all those non-bracket makers appear to be warming to the Contest anyways, based on yesterday's very encouraging 81k vote total.

Well would you look at this, we've arrived at the strangest battle of the season so far! This isn't the first matchup to catch my interest per se; I was pretty sure heading in that Magus/Alucard and Red/Ocelot would be closely contested, but with this one I honestly don't know WHAT to think. When I first glanced through the bracket this choice seemed obvious, to the tune of "oh look it's Ammy. she did okay for herself the past two years, but then again she's exactly the kind of sore thumb standout/dedicated fanbase-backed character that thrives in 4ways. shouldn't have to be too far above the fodder line to knock her out in a 1v1." Ever since then, however, I've been becoming more and more distrustful of that gut reaction. Firstly because Okami seems like the kind of gem that would stand the test of time, secondly because Ammy looks flat out awesome in that match pic (seriously, would it even be possible to design an image that could appeal to the internet's weeaboo neckbeard wolfshirt demographic more strongly? ), but mostly because...

Look, Magus looked like junk during the 4way era, but we talked ourselves into thinking he'd bounce back for a competitive 1v1 match. Team Mega Man looked like it lost a step during the 4way era, but we talked ourselves into thinking X was still capable of blowing out fodder like MM would do back in the day. Well, Sonic Team looked even worse during the 4way era, so forgive me if I'm suddenly quite worried about them falling flat on their faces as soon as a decent 1v1 alternative comes around. And if there's anyone from the Team who voters would turn on first, it'd have to be Shadow- the guy's at least as hated on as Tails, but without any of the nostalgia to counter it. I'm so freaked out at this point that if you were to swap positions and make this a night match, I'd have a very difficult time resisting the urge to flip over to Amaterasu.

As is, I'm going to stick with my bracket and trust the Day Vote to pull this one out for Shadow... but I don't like this pick one bit!

Ngamer Says: Shadow > Amaterasu, 53.27%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Here's a match that's a bit more debated, I think. Shadow laid an egg last year, losing to Zidane of all people, and Ammy has managed to be relatively impressive in her two contest showings, 31% on Dante and 35% on Crono respectively (by the way, has anyone ever discussed those numbers? That's either quite a substantial jump for Ammy or Dante would mess up Crono if they ever met). For some reason, though, I have trouble seeing Ammy succeed in a 1v1 environment. Which brings me to another point.

Everyone has been talking doom and gloom about Sonic characters for this contest. SONIC TO BREAK THE NOBLE NINE FOR GOOD, the headlines read. While there's certainly no denying that the dude embarrassed himself good last year, losing to both Auron and Kirby before exiting the contest, I think we're going to see a bit of a "resurgence" here, if you will. Sonic characters are kind of default votes to me, if you don't know or don't care about the other guy, vote for Sonic because you know who he is. With more characters in 4-ways, there's more chances to vote for not Sonic. I could be way off base here, but I think people are going to be a little surprised when they see what the blue hedgehog does this year. Whether this translates to all Sonic characters remains to be seen, but you've been warned !!

Bracket: Shadow the Hedgehog
Favorites: Amaterasu
Prediction: Shadow the Hedgehog with 57.55%



Red Sox’s Analysis

Ah, here is a match that I had a very hard time predicting when making my bracket. My initial gut instinct was that Shadow would win simply because of he is far more recognizable. However, actual contest performance from last year suggests that Ammy could win this: she avoided the doubling against Crono twice while Shadow lost to Zidane and let Pyramid Head get way too close to him. Of course, Link was in the Shadow/Zidane poll, and was the primary reason I took Zidane lastyear, so I’ll take that poll with a grain of salt. Beyond that though, Sonic Team has looked uniformly awful the past couple of years, and while 4-ways are often used as an excuse, I think most or at least some of the blame has to be put on the characters simply weakening in strength.

And yet, despite that, I’m taking Shadow here, in a close one. 4-way stats are very very very unreliable, and my gut feeling is that Ammy cannot break 50% against a character as well known as Shadow. The hardcore fanbase theory has failed to produce results time and time again, but this isn’t really even an example of using hardcore fanbase theory- it’s just not trusting her 4-way numbers without explanation other than that they happened in a 4-way blowout match. This also a day match, which should help Shadow- the difference in trends is quite pronounced here, and it’s a match where the time of the match could actually make a difference.

Prediction: Shadow with 51.50%
Upset Chance: 45%
Upper Bound: Shadow with 56%
Lower Bound: Amaterasu with 55%



Guest’s Analysis - Justin_Crossing

Let's see. Okami was an extremely underselling game, albeit a good one, while Shadow comes from the Sonic series, and is a decent competitor. Ammy has been able to overcome the likes of people like Ada Wong in 4-ways, but those votes are all she's going to be getting. There's no way that she'll be able to muster up the power to beat someone like Shadow, especially in a day vote. Ammy may be all bright and colorful, but Shadow's easily got the kiddie vote, and the Sonic series vote. Pretty easy decision right here, but Ammy could pull it close.

Shadow - 56.54%



Crew Consensus: Everyone is backing Shadow here.

I eagerly await the Analysis Crew making fools of themselves again when Ama kicks Shadow's ass.
---
Not Wylvane

Fact/Fiction: Shadow/Ammy will be decided by the end of the first hour
Fact/Fiction: There will be at least one lead change
Fact/Fiction: Regardless of the winner, Ammy will be winning at the end of the board vote
Fact/Fiction: Shadow will be the overall bracket favorite
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

And man, SFF matches are so boring. They completely neuter trends for the most part.
---
"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

Fact/Fiction: Shadow/Ammy will be decided by the end of the first hour. Fact.
Fact/Fiction: There will be at least one lead change. Fiction.
Fact/Fiction: Regardless of the winner, Ammy will be winning at the end of the board vote. Fact.
Fact/Fiction: Shadow will be the overall bracket favorite. Fact, fact, a million times fact.
---
http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

Fact: Shadow/Ammy will be decided by the end of the first hour
Fiction: There will be at least one lead change
Fiction: Regardless of the winner, Ammy will be winning at the end of the board vote
Fact: Shadow will be the overall bracket favorite

---
GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

Match VI: (6) Amaterasu vs. (11) Shadow the Hedgehog

Information

Name: Amaterasu
Game/Series: Okami
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 2

Name: Shadow the Hedgehog
Game/Series: Sonic
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 1

Analysis

To tell you the truth I have been doubtful about my pick ever since I made it. Shadow has quickly become a character not to trust in the contest while Amaterasu has impressed over the past two contests. Magus failing a few matches ago doesn’t help either, but that is more of a mind thing rather than the two having any correlation between each other.

The major point and Shadow’s main chance to win is the existence of a Nintendo/Sonic fanbase overlap. Before four-ways the only Nintendo/Sonic interactions were Samus/Sonic twice, Shadow/Wario, Mario/Shadow and Sonic/Luigi. The first three could be ignore since they were from the early contests and the Sega shift towards Nintendo was more recent while the other match doesn’t really show SFF.

On the other hand Nintendo/Sonic could be a coincidence and that the Sonic team is really worse off now. The only matches the Sonic team had that did include Nintendo characters were Shadow’s round 1 match in 2007 and Sonic’s 2007 run. Sonic let Sub-Zero get 45% in round 1 before he got his Brawl boost while Shadow ended up getting 38% on Auron. However to support the Nintendo/Sonic SFF theory Shadow did significantly worse when Bowser was added, though some people blame it on last place factor.

Also for Shadow to have a chance to win Amaterasu must not have gained in strength again since the previous contest, which I think is likely. Back in the 2008 contest Okami for the Wii was released a few months before that contest which was the last thing she got. Some people argue that Amaterasu may drop in strength because the game no longer has the afterglow some releases have, but I disagree since Okami was never a hugely hyped game and never really made much noise when it was released for either the Playstation 2 or Wii. She might take a slight drop because the game has aged, but it won’t be anything like Marcus Fenix between 2007 and 2008.

Despite Shadow being the board favourite and having him myself I really do feel that Amaterasu should be considered the favourite in this match. Shadow is hoping that things goes his way while Amaterasu just needs to keep on doing what she did last year. Some people think going back to one on one would cause the Sonic Team to increase in strength for no reason, but in my opinion if that was true that would probably be one of the major shocks to me of the contest.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Shadow the Hedgehog > Amaterasu

charmander6000’s Prediction: Shadow wins, 51.18% - 48.82%

---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X

From: LeonhartFour | #484
And man, SFF matches are so boring. They completely neuter trends for the most part.

Too bad the converse isn't true, or else we could argue that X SFF'd Price!
---
Not Wylvane

Our vote total's also pretty low today, thanks to LFF.

And the match sucks, and it's boring, and I'm gonna miss the beginning of the real match today. Bah.
---
T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

I think Shadow scores 52%. Darn I am so voting for Amaterasu to get this stupid black hog out. And to save my bracket.

I do own Okami, BTW.

Yes, I agree that we haven't really seen Shadow since 2004 (!). Being badass SFFd by Auron in round 1 and then facing badass SFF from Auron and Bowser in round 2, not to mention losing Nintendo appeal to Bowser...yeah, he's definetely going to win this one. So Shadow scores 55%!

On second thought, I think that Shadow screwed Bowser over in that match, in the same way Tails screwed over Zelda and Tails again screwed over DK in those matches. Then again, the former two matches took place before Sonic was announced in Brawl, so who knows? I still think that Nintendo/Sonic overlap screwed over Bowser/Zelda/DK there.

Shadow with 60%

---
GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

After reading a lot of these analyses, I have to say that the idea that casual bracket makers would pay attention to seeding at all makes me LOL.

It's happened before all the time.

---
KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Sam Fisher was the favorite.

---
GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

Ammy with 54%.
---
~ Birth by Sleep ~
A flat chest is a status symbol, it has immeasurable value. - Mayumi-chan

Ammy wins, that's all that matters.
---
The Gamer In Me
My Signature's broken, just like your front door.

Indeed. I have no intentions of losing my perfect bracket to ****ing Shadow the Hedgehog.
---
~ Birth by Sleep ~
A flat chest is a status symbol, it has immeasurable value. - Mayumi-chan

It's almost time.
---
"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Ammy > Shadow
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"