GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 782

Achromatic | Posted 1/17/2010 5:01:30 AM | message detail
A contest match living up to epic hype? What the hell is this.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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The difference between arrogance and confidence is confidence acts rather than speaks.
Sir Chris
croy3 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:03:15 AM | message detail
Good match!!!
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(\__/) Vincent Valentine's #3 Fanboy, Knuckles' #1 Homeboy
(='.'=) My Bunny Ziggy
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:19:22 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhkGx0QGVDY
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:24:36 AM | message detail
Red's got this. That's right, calling the match for Red now.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:24:49 AM | message detail
so where do you rank the pokemon trainer in terms of brawl fodder
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/17/2010 5:25:03 AM | message detail
Even if Red lose here we have to give him another chance in the next contest.

I thought he would be weaker than Lucario >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/17/2010 5:25:06 AM | message detail
Yeah Red!!
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:27:24 AM | message detail
I just realized that I'm going to be missing the last 30 minutes of the match.

Damn it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:27:27 AM | message detail
seems like red is making a move. Though in doesn't matter, he's just giving Ocelot time to reload his revolver.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:28:42 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:28:55 AM | message detail
Even if Red lose here we have to give him another chance in the next contest.

No we need Jigglypuff to complete the original Smash set.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:28:58 AM | message detail
Cuts are getting a lot more regular.
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Won't be long now.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:29:32 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #011
Even if Red lose here we have to give him another chance in the next contest.

No we need Jigglypuff to complete the original Smash set.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3691

no thanks
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:30:41 AM | message detail
lol Vote-ins
lol SFF match
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lol Albion
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:30:55 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3691

no thanks


Ever heard of SFF? Besides this is more about completing a set than strength.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/17/2010 5:31:42 AM | message detail
Instead of Jigglypuff, we should rally for Barret, Yuffie, Red and Cait Sith to complete the whole FFVII cast.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:31:45 AM | message detail
well i'll be surprised if she ever gets in. even with her big rally last year she only made it to the vote ins, where she got stomped
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:32:10 AM | message detail
I'm gonna be missing the last 3 hours or so of this match, plus the first hour of MMX/Price. Doesn't matter, I have confidence in Red now (much more than last night). Your lead isn't big enough, Ocelot.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:32:15 AM | message detail
3 cuts a trend
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:32:38 AM | message detail
My math is awful today, was Albion just told?
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:32:59 AM | message detail
Ocelot has had 50.79% of the votes over the last 30 minutes.

Also the US vote is shifting towards Red again.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:33:17 AM | message detail
We need Saria, Malon, Talon, Epona, Kaepora, Navi, Darunia, Ruto, Nabooru, Impa, and SHEIK to complete the OOT set.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:34:09 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3732&region=USXWY

wyoming still has the best taste as usual though
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2010 5:34:13 AM | message detail
We never need to see Jigglypuff. I actually have to agree on going for the FF7 cast if you want to get in a 'set', you're going to end up with characters twice as strong at the minimum.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/17/2010 5:34:24 AM | message detail
Navi VS TIngle, who wins?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:34:31 AM | message detail
well i'll be surprised if she ever gets in. even with her big rally last year she only made it to the vote ins, where she got stomped

Almost all of the board rallies were stuck in the vote-ins, though I do agree that she will be hard to rally for again.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/17/2010 5:34:43 AM | message detail
Red will catch up.

Yeah we need to complete the original Smash Bros set plus jiggs is awesome.
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:35:36 AM | message detail
Navi would crush Tingle. If this doesn't happen, I will be shocked and appalled.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:35:38 AM | message detail
There's only, like, ten people in Wymoing with internet.
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:35:43 AM | message detail
Red needs 7.45 votes an update to tie.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:35:46 AM | message detail
Wymoing
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:37:24 AM | message detail
RED used FURY CUTTER.
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!
nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:37:25 AM | message detail
From: charmander6000 | #030
Red needs 7.45 votes an update to tie.

In the last 10 minutes, Red has cut 7.5 votes per update.

GRANDSTAND FINISH TIME!
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:D
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2010 5:37:27 AM | message detail
And as for vote rallies... isn't this a huge rally fave locked in an all-(half)-day affair with a chump like Ocelot?

With this and prospects like Jigglypuff a gold standard, methinks giving up the rallies would do more good than harm at this point.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:37:28 AM | message detail
300 vote barrier broken.

Not looking good.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:38:08 AM | message detail
Actually, this is looking wonderful.
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:38:42 AM | message detail
Who will do better on X?

Red/Ocelot or Price?
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
nintendogirl1 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:38:43 AM | message detail
From: charmander6000 | #035
Not looking good.

Looking excellent.
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Hahaha.
Djungelurban | Posted 1/17/2010 5:38:53 AM | message detail
Well, the US kiddies are waking up now and Europe is losing it's dominance... This one will be a tight one...
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Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX
http://miniurl.org/ntI
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/17/2010 5:39:02 AM | message detail
Red is actully catching up YES!
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:39:23 AM | message detail
With this and prospects like Jigglypuff a gold standard, methinks giving up the rallies would do more good than harm at this point.

I think for next contest we should rally characters that have been missing for the last few contests.

M. Bison ftw
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
voltch | Posted 1/17/2010 5:39:25 AM | message detail
wow, this match might actually go down to the wire.
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Shakes Fist!
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:39:41 AM | message detail
Red is actually up to 46% in Europe. What a contrast from when he was getting 27% at the start of the poll.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:40:09 AM | message detail
Red/Ocelot or Price?

Ocelot, but not Red.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:40:33 AM | message detail
Bold Prediction

Red has the lead by 10:30.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Achromatic | Posted 1/17/2010 5:41:15 AM | message detail
Bold Prediction: Red never regains the lead.
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Dragon Quest V is awesome
Sir Chris
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/17/2010 5:41:37 AM | message detail
I think for next contest we should rally characters that have been missing for the last few contests.

M. Bison ftw


Or Toad =D
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"Biggest Nintendo Fan Ever" 07/28/02-12/13/09 R.I.P CATS we miss ya ;_;
http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu9/npaintv2/Ctes.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2010 5:42:04 AM | message detail
Reload'd
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism
Biolizard28 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:42:11 AM | message detail
FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2010 5:42:28 AM | message detail
They're rubber barriers.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X