GameFAQs Contests

Red supporter 'loling' at stuffing allegations.

Lynch him. "He's the guy"
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Hahaha of course Lopen. That's how it always goes right.
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Its just getting annoying to have Ocelot winning constant 55% updates then out of no where Red wins 55%. Thats not legit.
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auuuugh I hate how everyone claims stuffing for everything.

Red went from 196 votes to 149. What is that? Destuffing? Then if he went 196-149-196, was the jump stuffing? You guys are just so strict with your patterns, you find it impossible for any fluctuations more than 0.01%.

I mean, I don't know, maybe it is stuffing. But...you people call any jumps stuffing and then any falls 'just falling off the map.'
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partystar did it.
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Red went from 196 votes to 149. What is that? Destuffing?

Its that they stopped stuffing. You don't have a huge spike in votes, then go back down to the regular amount normally.
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You're freaking me out, Red. Don't choke!

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Poor Magus.
CURRENTLY PLAYING: Electroplankton (DS), Pokemon Gold (GBC)

Don't MGS characters traditionally have a good night vote anyhow?
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From: AmazingKirby | #354
auuuugh I hate how everyone claims stuffing for everything.

Red went from 196 votes to 149. What is that? Destuffing? Then if he went 196-149-196, was the jump stuffing? You guys are just so strict with your patterns, you find it impossible for any fluctuations more than 0.01%.

I mean, I don't know, maybe it is stuffing. But...you people call any jumps stuffing and then any falls 'just falling off the map.'

This is the worst statistical analysis ever. The patterns show votes are going down (makes sense, it's the dead of night). All of a sudden Red spikes up 30 votes for two straight updates. Then he goes back to what is expected, 150, and has hovered around that for a few updates now. Because people STOPPED STUFFING.
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I'm going to bed.. this is probably over.
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Someone must get 20 updates in a row with identical vote totals, or they are vote stuffing!
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From: DaruniaTheGoron | Posted: 1/17/2010 4:06:56 AM | #360
I'm going to bed.. this is probably over.

It was over 10 minutes in.
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"Final Fantasy XI is a bad game that no one should care about for any reason." -FFDragon

This is the worst statistical analysis ever. The patterns show votes are going down (makes sense, it's the dead of night). All of a sudden Red spikes up 30 votes for two straight updates. Then he goes back to what is expected, 150, and has hovered around that for a few updates now. Because people STOPPED STUFFING.

If 150 is what's expected, then how did Red get a 120 vote update? The same way he would get a 180 vote update. Hint: not by cheating.
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I lol at people not understanding basic statistics and variance.
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I lol at people throwing around words like that when they probably don't have the first idea about how to apply these things.

Unless of course you want to present some detailed analysis of the voting trends for the last hour or two~
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lol at 47 vote cut
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Ocelot just emptied his barrel into Red's face.
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58.36% update for Ocelot there. Ocelot, please impress me for once, please beat red and gladly destroy my perfect bracket.
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I wager Mega Man X to score 70% on John Price.

Then again, he IS the lower seed. Then again, I doubt that anything Mega Man would honestly give a crap about that!

Hopefully when Ocelot gains the lead here within the next 30 minutes he'll be able to get enough distance in to win it.
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C'mon Ocelot, for your honour, and my bracket!

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Am I the only one that gets the feeling that this match is going to end up being extremely close?
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My bracket would prefer Red, but honestly, Ocelot's a great character. I don't mind him shining here at all.
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I never really warmed to Ocelot for some reason. Struck me as an increasingly tired and ridiculous plot device rather than a character as each game went on. Rooting for Red.

I honestly didn't think Ocelot had a shot against a Pokemon character =/

Not that Red's any good as a character, just the name recognition I assumed would play to Red's advantage =\

I think I was wrong. lol.
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I will now do a statistical analysis for both Red and Ocelot for the 9-10 AM voting hour.

The average 5-minute amount of votes for Red was 158, for Ocelot it was 163.33.

This makes the variance for Red (1/12) * [(167-158)^2+(166-158)^2+(195-158)^2+....)]= 444.33

The standard deviation is the square root of this, which in this case is 21.08.

This means that we expect 68.2% of all data to be at most 1 standard deviation away from the mean, in the interval [158-21.08; 158+21.08] or between [136.92; 179.08]

We expect 95.4% of all data to be at most 2 standard deviations away from the mean, or [115.84; 200.16]

Any update that went beyond this interval would look particularly suspicious (but there were none).

By comparison, Ocelot's variance was 196.39, or a standard deviation of 14.01 votes. We expect 95.4% of Ocelot's votes to be in the [135.31; 191.35] interval. They also were.

So Ocelot definitely had a more stable vote income, but nothing really points to cheating.

Obviously what you'd really want to do is get the variance for the entire 24-hour match, and then apply it to 5-minute updates, but this is a pretty strong indication of there being no cheating none the less.


Anyway, regarding the match; I think Ocelot's is a lot better of a character but I'm still rooting for Red here. I have it in my bracket but I'm also convinced that Red would win if it was a 24-hour match. It would be a shame if the format caused an undeserved winner.

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Hmm, can Red come back with the morning vote, or will it be too late?

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It's very possible he can start a stall once the kiddies wake up haha.
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Barkley is klefong's alt huh.
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Wow they're close now!

klefong's

No who is klefong? My main account is consolefreak, but I figured it was time for a change because that is one sucky account name.
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Hello, Dexter Morgan

Oh, no, I was just making a joke because a klefong thing earlier on in the page showed up and started talking about statistics in a condescending manner and I called it on it.
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Also for the record I don't see how that suggests there isn't cheating. I see a 50% increase in standard deviation with a pretty similar vote intake. To me that means more than falling within deviations-- all the latter means is that if there was cheating the stuffer wasn't stupid about it.
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pow, Ocelot takes the lead with a huge gain.

Ocelot has a 17 vote lead!

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Or rather, wasn't absurdly stupid about it. The significant increase of the standard of deviation implies to me that there was a pretty noticeable effect if there was stuffing.

The thing that makes detecting falling outside the standards of deviation a foolish measure is if he stuffs for several updates it suddenly becomes a lot harder to fall outside the standards of deviation. So if you had stuffing taking place for like 1/3 of the updates it'd have to be to an absurd degree to fall outside because you've tainted 1/3 of the data with just barely legitimate looking updates, increasing the standard of deviation and making it harder to fall outside of it.

Then again I'm not too up on my statistics so maybe I'm completely wrong here.
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No problem!
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Oh ok, I'm not actually trying to be condescending about it or anything though, just objective.

But yes, Red's votes are unquestionably a lot more suspicious. He had a slightly lower average of votes over the period yet his variance was as much as twice as high. However, with no data on variances from previous matches to compare, and a limited dataset of 12 samples, the interval with 2 standard deviations is really the best you can do to figure out the real spikes.

It's inconclusive, but technically you would rule that there is no cheating (or, of course, continuous cheating throughout the hour).
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Hello, Dexter Morgan

No you're right about that, Lopen.
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Hello, Dexter Morgan

Not good! Lead is down to 13!

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Where all the kiddies at?
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From: Masato_Tanaka | #390
Where all the kiddies at?

I drugged them so they'll wake up at exactly 12:01 EST
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Right, okay. I thought I was right but your analysis of the data seemed to imply the opposite of what I would've got out of it. Course it's hard to say what increase in standard deviation is "significant" cause yeah like you said limited data and all that but...

Basically what you're tellin me is you're working for the Red propaganda task force, right?

No I'm kiddin man. It's interesting to look at, anyway.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Lead up to 34! (O.o)

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So how long does Ocelot have to build a lead? I'm still feeling Red here.

Right, okay. I thought I was right but your analysis of the data seemed to imply the opposite of what I would've got out of it. Course it's hard to say what increase in standard deviation is "significant" cause yeah like you said limited data and all that but...

Basically what you're tellin me is you're working for the Red propaganda task force, right?

No I'm kiddin man. It's interesting to look at, anyway.

Heh =p

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Looks like red is getting that lead back.
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SK Mason? No way is a host that stupid.
Sir Chris

Pretty sure Red has this. Kiddies wake up soon or have already begun waking up, and Ocelot's not doing well to get a significant lead.

Good show Shalashaska... I... well, not really, but better than you looked an hour in.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

This match is awesome though, not a curbstomping, but still a great close battle.
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Shakes Fist!

the 16 vote barrier is holding strong, captain
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*Wakes up, checks poll*

*insert Tiger gif*

It might not last, but at least he took the lead.
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Character Battle VIII - 1/2 - Today's Winners: Ocelot and Mega Man X

Less stalling Ocelot, more gaining!

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