GameFAQs Contests

ALL PART OF THE PLAN!


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Poll Start Times*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Battle_8_Poll_Start_Times

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Solid Snake, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man.

Near-Elite - The Squall, Auron, Tifa, Vincent, Zelda, Kirby, etc group that has come at, near or even ahead of Noble Nine characters in the past.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Shakes Fist!

Plan.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Magus got voltch'd.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Alucard is like Mega Man. He'll beat Magus and take his NN-breaking powers.

Link better watch out...

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Apparently the two people with internet in Wyoming are at odds.
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!

Feels weird that the match is starting at this time.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 0/0 - Today's Winner: Link and Magus

The Plan never fails
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Alucard > Magus (1/1)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

red sox, vincent/crono comparisons gogogogo
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:)

Don't worry red sox, Alucard has a terrible ASV!
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

Last topic's post #500: Magus's motto for the last five years.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

From: KamikazePotato | #004
Alucard is like Mega Man. He'll beat Magus and take his NN-breaking powers.

Link better watch out...

All this time Alucard was simply waiting. The Plan will be unleashed and there's nothing Link can do about it.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

Just wait till alukart gets announced.
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Shakes Fist!

Red had better kill tomorrow's poll.

This is the worst start to a contest in years, between Link failing to hit 80% and then....this.....
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Oh man, I thought X was up before Red/Ocelot. Another hype hype hype match in less than 12!
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

So...is this one of the biggest blowouts in a debatable match since X-stats came out?
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

less then 12 hours till we see red for the fraud he is
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

From: red sox 777 | #013
Red had better kill tomorrow's poll.

This is the worst start to a contest in years, between Link failing to hit 80% and then....this.....

He was only .21% away from hitting 80%.

y u mad
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!

If you're willing to count newbies, Vincent/Kerrigan holds the record by 12 million standard deviations.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

And our first chart of the contest!

Time | Link | Thrall | Votes
0:05 | 81.41% | 18.59% | 1409
1:00 | 79.61% | 20.39% | 10996
2:00 | 79.76% | 20.24% | 6918
3:00 | 79.45% | 20.55% | 5090
4:00 | 76.60% | 23.40% | 4022
5:00 | 76.89% | 23.11% | 3392
6:00 | 77.33% | 22.67% | 2977
7:00 | 78.62% | 21.38% | 2891
8:00 | 78.84% | 21.16% | 3219
9:00 | 80.61% | 19.39% | 3960
10:00 | 81.54% | 18.46% | 4988
11:00 | 82.16% | 17.84% | 6044
12:00 | 82.33% | 17.67% | 6102

I bolded each character's best hour for good measure. No surprises with this here trend chart.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

From: red sox 777 | #013
Red had better kill tomorrow's poll.

This is the worst start to a contest in years, between Link failing to hit 80% and then....this.....

I made the Ocelot pic.

Make your time, Red.
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

People also debated Dante/Terra a fair bit.
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Shakes Fist!

I was going to put a warning that Vincent/Kerrigan didn't count, but chose not to.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

If Ocelot wins and Boss loses, EVERYONE DE-BOOSTED.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

For GREAT JUSTICE!
Red will prevail against the evil Leonhart4'D plan!
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Shakes Fist!

By the way, Magus, if you suddenly turn into Frog and pull off the most ridiculous miracle comeback ever, YOU STILL FAIL.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

From: PartOfYourWorld | #023
If Ocelot wins and Boss loses, EVERYONE DE-BOOSTED.

except western characters, as we'll see with Price knocking off X!
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Seriously red sox, I want Vincent/Crono comparison.
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This is the perfect opportunity!

Everyone except Sandal deboosts

new contest champ

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

If the lead in the site's #2-RPG, the final boss of maybe a top-five RPG here, and a playable character in SSBB can't beat a guy who has lost to Jill and Pac-Man, it'll be amazing. I'm not going to guarantee a win for Red, but it's still just really hard to see that loss happen.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/7355/64590879.png

I wonder how these guys would be doing during the night. Makes one think.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

Does anyone know who got the first vote?

Salient did.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Link 96.52%
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The question to everyone's answer.

2010, the great gamefaqs DEBOOST, Rise of the casuals, Soap vs John Price in the finals.
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Shakes Fist!

39 Hexgame 1 Lightning

Damnit Kleenex

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Yeah, contest stats are up. Link with 96.52%. lefty at #1 with PW winning.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

Seriously red sox, I want Vincent/Crono comparison.

Fine, at this point in Crono/Vincent 2007, Crono had 57.76% and ended at 48.58%. Using those trends, Magus is projected to win with 51.39%.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

If the lead in the site's #2-RPG, the final boss of maybe a top-five RPG here, and a playable character in SSBB can't beat a guy who has lost to Jill and Pac-Man, it'll be amazing. I'm not going to guarantee a win for Red, but it's still just really hard to see that loss happen.

Yeah Terra gave Dante such a close match back in 2005.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 0/0 - Today's Winner: Link and Magus

only 25K brackets I see
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Moltar Status: Bracket: Alucard > Magus (1/1)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

Second least amount of brackets for a contest behind only 2002. Ouch.
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.

It's a shame HeartGold isn't out yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACvlzSCa2wo

Incoming Red boost confirmed

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Anyone that expected the casuals to fill out 127 matches was fooling themselves.

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

so at 25568 brackets what is our all time record? and by how much are we down on previous years?
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Shakes Fist!

Wow that's like 20k lower than usual.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 0/0 - Today's Winner: Link and Magus

Alucard with over/under 50% of the brackets?
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No match for KrahenProphet's extreme Guru skills.

Are you guys reading the brackets right? You have to add that 900 who got it wrong, right?
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.

I only quickly scanned over the last stats topic and I saw no one really talking about the votals at the freeze. Last night, I predicted votals of 1200 to 1600 at the freeze for night matches and 800 to 1100 for day matches. Well, today's match ended up at 896 for the freeze, which fell within the range I predicted last night.

I missed the start of this match due to unexpected events.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

I never got where this Red hype came from. Pokémons are what people like about the game, not the boring trainer with no character at all. Sure he was in brawl, but Lucario showed us that being from Pokémon and playable in Brawl does not make you strong at all.

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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me

From: Zylo the wolf | #047
I never got where this Red hype came from. Pokémons are what people like about the game, not the boring trainer with no character at all. Sure he was in brawl, but Lucario showed us that being from Pokémon and playable in Brawl does not make you strong at all.

board 8 is a pokemon fan board basically. thats why
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

From: Zylo the wolf | #047
I never got where this Red hype came from. Pokémons are what people like about the game, not the boring trainer with no character at all. Sure he was in brawl, but Lucario showed us that being from Pokémon and playable in Brawl does not make you strong at all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Vc8vX0qm7M

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KrahenProphet lived up to his name.

Oooh I thought that was 8k. Nevermind. Wow that is bad.
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*is Dranze*
Krahen Prophet did a fatality.