GameFAQs Contests

Seeing as how Link might have difficulty breaking 80% in this match, maybe he won't be scoring the worst blowout of the entire contest? I think Big Boss, Vincent or Mario should have the best chance so far.

Big Boss needs a Naked Snake picture to pull that off and we've seen before that it doesn't make him as strong as Solid Snake. Big Boss isn't pulling off 80%, even with a Naked Snake picture.

Mario could do it since he's got Falco, who would be easily SFFed. Vincent might be able to pull it off too.

Also, Cloud could pull it off since he has a night match and Ridley is going to have a god awful night vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

I can only assume that the kiddies haven't fully woken up yet.
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!

Looks like Link survived the overnight vote decently. Well, Zelda morning vote, you've got 3 hours to get Link back to 80%.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Yeah, Mario and Vincent look like the new favorites for blowout of the round. Maybe Cloud, too.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

ok, moved back to uni and OMG LINK WTF ROUND 1 and you do THIS?!!?!?
deboost overdrive!
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Shakes Fist!

Perhaps the site has finally figured out that Link and not Cloud wins every year.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Ugh, I've been up so long, but if I go to sleep now I'll miss the beginning of Magus/Alucard. Maybe I'll just take a nap...

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4th place in Summer Contest 2k4

Votes slowed down during the night, now we are heading for about 58k
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380

Over/Under: Magus wins 45 states.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Biggest blow-out favorite has to be Mario. Falco is really weak to begin with, Mario is going to obliterate him.

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Hello, Dexter Morgan

I've honestly never seen Link Disappoint in a blowout match, I mean even if this was a 24 hour match at this stage of the match link should be comfortably above 80%, so is he finally getting anti-voted?
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Shakes Fist!

Over/Under: Magus wins 45 states

Magus won over Sandbag in 32 states
Alucard won over Pikachu (R2) in 35 states

I going to go with under since I expect the match to be split.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 0/0 - Today's Winner: Link and Magus

I wonder if there are times now where just a single person in an entire country votes in a contest match.
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Shakes Fist!

North Korea...

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GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

I'll agree that Link is disappointing here.

Oh yeah, the reason why I picked Liquid Snake to beat Vivi is because...Vivi has never been to the third round of a contest while Liquid Snake has. But here's Vivi's track record:

-Was in the same fourpack as Sephiroth in '04.
-Was stuck facing a high midcarder in the first round of '05.
-Was snubbed altogether in '06.
-Was in the same eightpack as Tidus in '07.
-Was stuck facing a Noble Niner and a high midcarder in the 2nd round of '08.

Obviously my argument sucks. And Liquid Snake's sole trip to the third round involved breaking through LFF. I suppose the fact that Liquid beat Bowser is somewhat revenge for several of us assuming that he would've done the same in 2005 and then getting proven incredibly wrong. Not to mention that it shows that Bowser (and Ganondorf, too, perhaps) isn't exactly that far ahead of any villain not named Sephiroth or Ganondorf.

Liquid Snake to score 35% on Samus?

So now I have to think Link > Cloud > Sephiroth > Snake > Mario > Samus > Crono > Mega Man > Sonic. I would vote Link > Mario > Snake > Cloud > Samus > Sonic > Mega Man > Crono.

*yes, my username is "LinkMarioSamus" and yet I would vote for Snake or Cloud over the Metroid heroine at this point. Call me a bandwagoner.*

Alucard won over Pikachu (R2) in 35 states

I didn't realize Alucard was so strong in the US relative to the rest of the world. Interestingly enough, it looks like Pikachu won the popular vote in the US, but lost the electoral vote 296-242. That's what happens when you win California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania, but still lose 35 states!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/16/2010 10:11:45 AM | message detail
North Korea...

There have been no votes from North Korea yet, according to this post:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=11&topic=52525167

"Korea, Democratic People's Republic of" is another name for North Korea.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as KrahenProphet, Guru Champ!

Link is coming back, gained .19% in 25 minutes and accelerating from the look of it.
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For the fangirls!

Hot damn, look at the cluster ****... and no votes? LOL lame.

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GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

And looking at CT/SOTN, it appears SOTN actually did slightly better on CT in the US than worldwide. Well, I withdraw that over/under then, except for people who think Magus is getting 53%+.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Ah, finally get to see my first start to a contest match in an hour 20 mins (us Europeans have to stay up to silly, silly hours to catch them normally). Love the 12 hour gimmick simply for this reason.

Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 2 – (8) Alucard vs. (9) Magus

Moltar’s Analysis

Alucard
A character who has fallen in rank over the years, but still has some strength left. Today, he’ll have to bare the sunlight and try to show everyone that he still has what it takes to win a debated match.

Magus
A character who has fallen in rank over the years, but still has some strength left. Today, he’ll have to bare the sunlight and try to show everyone that he still has what it takes to win a debated match.

Funny how this is a day match between two night characters. Let the battle of the washed-up has-beens commence!

Alucard has the advantage going into this match if you look at past performances. This isn’t ‘35% on Link’ Magus we’re talking about. Ever since 2007, Magus has looked horrible. Struggling in weak four-packs and losing to characters (and objects) that he has no reason losing to. At least Alucard looked somewhat decent in those two years.

Magus has had CTDS, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough. It doesn’t even look like CTDS had that big of an effect on anything CT-related.

Magus’s only shot here is if he was somehow weakened by four-ways and I wouldn’t bank on that. Alucard should take this in a close one.

Moltar’s Bracket: Alucard > Magus

Moltar’s Prediction: Alucard: 53% - Magus: 47%



Lopen’s Analysis

Magus lost to a bag full of sand man let's make fun of him.

Anyway, this is like the battle of the old men, here. Both of these dudes, in their prime, were beasts among men. By 2003/2004 stats I think Magus wins with 57% or so. But they've both aged. Magus of course, losing to a bag of sand. How sad. Also that loser from the Sega Genesis and some others I've no doubt forgotten. Alucard... well, you know, it's kinda um... debatable, he's had less humiliating losses over the years. Makes sense-- the dude is a vampire so it's harder to see him age.

Oh, and it's also a battle of who dries up in the sun more. Now Alucard is a vampire, but only half vampire, and as I recall goth people often hate the sun too. What I mean to say is, to me it comes down to who had more releases this generation. Magus has CT:DS. Alucard on the other hand had that PSP remake, and XBL/PSP Network releases of SotN. And who could forget Castlevania Judgment~ for the Wii. More relevance to this generation makes me think Alucard holds better here.

So, in summary:

Sun: Alucard.
Aging: Alucard.
Plan: Alucard.

Lopen's prediction:
Alucard with 51.09%



Transience’s Analysis

This match is hilarious. The second match of the contest is always a weird one and this contest is no exception. Once upon a time, Magus beat Ganondorf; once upon a time, Alucard beat Kirby. Both of these guys have fallen from grace in a most hilarious fashion. Alucard loses to Liquid Snake now and struggles to dispatch guys like Captain Falcon despite Nintendo overlap. Magus's contest history is pretty famous, going from beating Ganondorf to losing to a bag of sand. Plus this match is in the daytime where both guys absolutely suck.

So who's more popular? It's so hard to tell thanks to fourways obscuring the big picture. I'd probably give the edge to Alucard - at least he hasn't been embarrassed by Phoenix Wright, Big Boss and Sandbag. Alucard has lost, but he hasn't been embarrassing while doing it. Magus's contest history is to underwhelm you at every turn and it will probably continue here.

And yet I'm going with Magus here. When it comes down to it, I'm going to side with the Nintendo/Square character over the non-Nintendo/Square character. I just think that fanbase is more loyal. Castlevania has fallen off a lot more than Chrono Trigger has here. It just hasn't aged as well. Magus has fallen but I'll back him one last time.

vampire battle
both guys die in the sunlight
Magus sucks less, wins

transience's prediction - Magus with 54.87%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Dang, Link's not quite living up to the hype- we're about halfway through the match as I'm writing this and he's "only" floating around the 79% mark. But unlike I said in my writeup, this isn't the fault of the dreaded Nintendo Night Matches and their lack of US representation; even during his traditionally dominating Power Hour the American voters didn't boost Link over 83% for a single update. Seems as though we simply underestimated Thrall in this one- sure he's awful, but we were batting percentages around as though he were turbo fodder, when in reality he's just your everyday run-of-the-mill fodder.

That brings us to the first debatable match of the season, and actually I'd say it has potential to be one the better matches of the entire first round! I mean sure, this matchup would have been a good deal more anticipated a few years ago, back when Alucard was the guy who could hang 52% on Kirby and 55% on Kratos and Magus still had us drooling over his 35% on Link. Both characters have dropped way off since then (though Alucard has at least slipped away from Content relevance somewhat gracefully, while post-'03 Magus has been the equivalent of Sideshow Bob navigating a field of rakes), but the cool thing is that their nose dives have been well synchronized, leaving enough room to make a reasonable case for either character.

The "smart money" has to be on Alucard; 56% of our Gurus are backing him here, and I understand why. However, I'm distrustful of that perception... to me it seems to be colored by Magus always failing so explosively rather than taking his real strength into consideration. Sure he lost to Knuckles, but that was the year Knux went on to put up 47% on Squall- not exactly chump change, and I'm far from convinced that Alucard could have managed as much himself.

The other thing being used against Magus is the Chrono Trigger day vote; a legit concern considering this will be our first Day match of the season. Personally though I'm not too worried, considering how Alucard's a long ways from a daylight stud himself, CT wasn't a complete day flop during the last Contest, and if anything this gives Magus an edge during the crucial final hour of this one. Sure, it's Magus and not Frog, but if this is close down the stretch I could still see him pulling out some of that patented CT Magic in the final couple updates, Liquid Snake-style!

Plus, I've never liked this Alucard pic. Give me Magus here. (Whoo, flawless reasoning!)

Ngamer Says: Magus > Alucard, 50.04%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I hate this match. I know it's debated and it'll probably be close and everything, but it basically boils down to which character sucks less. Both characters have plenty of recent failures on their resume, but going back over the results of the past few contests, Alucard seems to be a little more consistent. And it's really hard to ignore this - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3272. Of course, this year we have Our Lord and Savior, Chrono Trigger DS. Unfortunately, I'm not banking on that having much of an effect - it didn't sell a ton and it came out over a year ago. There's also the fact that Magus seems to be immune from the last minute rally/cheat/whatever powers that Crono and Frog seems to possess.

It's probably going to be fairly close, both characters suck ass during the day, and neither of them are particularly strong anymore, but I feel like without Magus's strong first couple hours, he's not going to be able to thrive here (using the term "thrive" extremely loosely). Bank on another embarassing first-round exit for the guy who was once supposed to beat Link.

Bracket: Alucard
Favorites: Magus
Prediction: Alucard with 51.89%

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Red Sox’s Analysis

Following contest tradition, the second match is a debatable one. However, despite the amount of debate this match has been getting on Board 8, and how even it is in the BOP, I think this match is pretty clear-cut. Magus and Alucard looked like equals in 2008, with Magus possibly looking a little better. Then came Chrono Trigger DS. If Magus gets anything from CTDS, he should win, and if not, then the match is still even. I'm not going to write off Alucard's chances entirely, but Magus looks like the clear favorite to me.

I'm expecting a lot from CTDS because it will be the CT crew's first game since 1995 (well, technically, since the PS1 release of CT in 2001, but it doesn't make a big difference to the argument). Crono has always been by far the least recognizable member of the Noble Nine, and thus the one who stands to benefit most from a new game that exposes him to a new audience. It's true that CTDS wasn't a huge game, and so I'm not expecting a huge boost, just a moderate one- something that pushes post CTDS Crono to around 55% on pre-CTDS Crono.

It's hard to tell how much CTDS boosted Chrono Trigger from the Games Contest, because we hadn't seen CT the game since 2004, and we're trying to compare 2008 CT to 2009/2010 CT. CT lost to Super Mario 64, which was a big disappointment, but then SM64 went even with A Link to the Past, which redeemed CT's performance. CT ended up at 48-49% on LTTP, which was about what one would have expected with a moderate boost from CTDS. That would mean that it's still a step below its 2004 strength, but considerably above its 2008 strength.

Looking at the difference between CT and FFVI also confirms this- the games were only 3% apart in 2004, but while CT ended up close to LTTP again in 2009, FFVI failed to match its old percentage against it even with 2 other Nintendo games, including a Zelda game, in the poll. FFVI looks like it'd be very hard pressed to even break 40% against LTTP 1v1 now, which provides a sobering warning of what might have been in store for CT in the games contest without CTDS.

But all of this is inconclusive, and Magus/Alucard will be the first litmus test for CTDS with characters, entities who actually have been in recent contests. Magus and Alucard put up comparable performances in 2008: Magus got 40% on Sonic and just under 50% on Sandbag, while Alucard got 36% on Crono and 39% on the Pikachu that took down L-Block (clearly stronger than Pikachu's normal strength by a good deal). If the match is close or Alucard wins, it would be a sign that CTDS did very little or nothing. But if Magus wins by a sizable margin, then the margin can be taken as a rough measure of the size of the CTDS Boost.

I should note that according to my theory that says that weaker characters boost or fall faster than stronger characters, even those in the same series or game, the boosts Magus or Frog get may be somewhat larger than the boost Crono or CT the game get.

Prediction: Magus with 57%
Upset Chances: 10%
Upper Bound: Magus with 62%
Lower Bound: Alucard with 52%



Guest’s Analysis - Mr3790

The first two contest matches, along with the new 12-hour format starts today, the first day time match being this one, Alucard Vs Magus. It being a day match is funny, considering that both of these guys are night charactors, also being once strong midcarders growing weaker by the year. This one will probably be close, yet I say Magus will suprise us dispite previous disapointments and take a close win with his "hardcore" CT fanbase. If it is close, CT "Magical" Last hour may finally come in and have a chance to work for Magus.

In The end, I would say the match will look like...
Magus>Alucard 50.92



Crew Consensus: In a 4-3 split, the Crew is giving the slight edge to Magus.

Now that I've seen the match pic, I really doubt that Alucard can win :(

I guess the Plan is to lose to Magus in a close match, Magus avoids to get doubled once again, and then let Link SFF X, Luigi, Ganondorf and Mario. Sephiroth beats Snake and then Cloud SFFs Seph big time (unlike every previous year), so Alucard ends up to be something like 7th in the x-stats after Link, Cloud, Samus, Ryu, Dante and Magus.

It could happen with all the SFF in this bracket. :P
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me

Has Alucard ever faced Link?
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Shakes Fist!

Alucard was a 9th seed in Link division in 2004, but he had to face Ganondorf in round 1 >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. KrahenProfit > Me

1 hour left. Link needs to gain 0.47% to get back to 80%.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

Match II: (8) Alucard vs. (9) Magus

Information

Name: Alucard
Game/Series: Castlevania
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 4th in round 3

Name: Magus
Game/Series: Chrono Trigger
Previous Contest: 2008
Performance: 3rd in round 1

Analysis

I’m pretty sure that I wasn’t the only person to find it funny that a match between the two biggest night characters was happening in the day. Had this match occur a couple of years ago I’m sure that almost the entire board would support Magus in this match, but Magus’ fall from grace over the previous two contests is very troublesome and while Alucard isn’t exactly as strong as he use to be he still has some strength left in him. What was once a huge board favourite not so long ago is now the underdog in the first round.

First and foremost the winner of this match is not depended on the fact that this is a day match. Both of these characters have such abysmal day votes that I feel the winner of this match would also win if the entire match was 24 hours long. Some people are concern about Magus not getting his strong early vote. Well a portion of that comes from the board which will likely vote in this match, it might not come all at once since some people have work or school, but overall the votes will be there. As for the rest both Magus and Alucard have the night vote to benefit from at the end of the match rather than at the beginning.

I feel that people on the board have been a little hard on Magus’ performances in the two previous contests, sure he’s no near elite, but I don’t think he’s fallen as far as some people have claimed. Getting crushed by Naked Snake Big Boss was understandable after we saw him in action again in 2008 and while he lost to Sandbag in an embarrassing matter so did Ryu and Tidus to L-Block and Weighted Companion Cube and you don’t see people calling for their heads.

Similarly ignoring Alucard’s chances is also foolish. He isn’t a random weakling that is here to fill up the bracket this guy also has legit strength. Alucard has been on a downward trek since the early days, but he still has what it takes to go toe and toe against other mid-carders. 36% against Crono was pretty impressive though that match contained the elimination of L-Block so personally I would use those results with caution. Magus was able to break 40% on Sonic, but that was the same Sonic who went a choked to Auron in the next round.

A lot of people have jumped off the Magus ship, but I feel that while the ship has taken in water it is still afloat. This is also the first character match after the release of Chrono Trigger DS though I don’t think anyone would be able to agree to its affects unless the winner of this match breaks 60%. Even though I don’t know the trends of a 12 hour match a have a feeling that the night vote at the end is going to play an important part in this match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Magus > Alucard

charmander6000’s Prediction: Magus wins, 52.26% - 47.74%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 0/0 - Today's Winner: Link and Magus

At Links current pace, he'll end up just short of getting 80%
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Hey, don't be blaming Alucard's potential fate on my match pic! Characters who get a match pic I made will go undefeated this year! Book it!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

eww lime green
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Gotta pick up the pace, Link! There's no time!
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....

So now that it seems Link will finish under 80%... What does this mean for other related matches? Like Arthas vs Kefka? Or hell, Cloud vs. Link?
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Nothing.

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GT: TriggerTRE
"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted."

That Ocelot pic and Red pic worry me a lot. =(

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I thought I'd never change, but FastFalcon beat me into shape!

Arthas vs. Kefka is still just as obvious as it always was, and Link/Cloud needs a massive Link drop over a 24 hour period for Cloud to win. This, while not inspiring, is an underperformance in a match where Link's better half (noon-midnight) isn't going to be represented.

Of course, based on how Dragon Age looked as you reduced the number of participants a general WRPG boost isn't out of the question, or Blizzard could just be stronger in 1v1s than 4-ways. If I remember Warcraft correctly, Thrall seems like he'd be a pretty casual favorite. He could just suffer from the same thing in 4-ways that Zelda/Peach do, people don't really *like* them, but they get the series vote, which gets a much higher % when there are less options.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

Ah, finally get to see my first start to a contest match in an hour 20 mins (us Europeans have to stay up to silly, silly hours to catch them normally). Love the 12 hour gimmick simply for this reason.

Love the gimmick so much you don't care for the FF contest anymore? :p

And I agree, the starting time of the day matches is awesome for us Europeans. It's been since the 3PM match start time that I've seen the start of any contest match.
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Hello, Dexter Morgan

Europeans awake for the start of the match? Alucard with 60% at the freeze confirmed.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png

Love the gimmick so much you don't care for the FF contest anymore? :p

lol I went out straight after I voted for Cloud and was gone the whole time. felt a guilty about Sephiroth but it all ended well.

Will be interesting to see how the board vote looks for Noon matches... shouldn't be same as the midnight
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Link's fightin' hard for that 80% still!
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"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

lol 13% update for Thrall there. too bad for link its too little too late
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

EUROOOOPE! EUROOOOOPE!
COME ON EUROOOOOPE, first time ever a poll start will have so much euro power.
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Shakes Fist!

Looks like the match will break 60k after all.

Prediction for vote totals for the day match? 75k-80k?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Character Battle VIII - 0/0 - Today's Winner: Link and Magus

From: charmander6000 | #347
Looks like the match will break 60k after all.

Prediction for vote totals for the day match? 75k-80k?

under 70k

this is magus/alucard afterall
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http://i48.tinypic.com/24ytvz8.png
Albion Hero is the Cream of Loli Fanboyism

Link has ten minutes to break 80%

Is he a bad enough dude to blow Thrall out?
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It may be insulting, but it's true!
Now this is entertainment!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]