GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 777 (All Lucky 7s Edition!)

Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/13/2010 7:09:06 AM | message detail
Here's a good Altair pic for you match pic makers.

http://forums.assassinscreed-maps.com/download/file.php?id=690&t=1&sid=4c8d4f9869e4b4db55e5b462d74672c2

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/13/2010 7:10:08 AM | message detail
I'd pick Alucard over 2005 Knuckles, personally.

Yeah but think of where that puts pre-KH2 Sora. Far too near Squall if you ask me even if Knuckles is overrated. How overrated are we willing to say he was? Just because he beat Magus? lol
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Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
voltch | Posted 1/13/2010 7:44:13 AM | message detail
the magus back then was a shadow of his former self sure, but come on, he wasn't as big a joke as he is today, heck technically he isn't even a joke yet, he's still above fodder afterall.
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Shakes Fist!
LOLContests | Posted 1/13/2010 8:06:35 AM | message detail
I'd pick Alucard over 2005 Knuckles, personally.

No way would I do that. Knuckles back then was on the borderline of being a near-elite!
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:06:54 AM | message detail
Hayabusa > Chief was always a possible upset pick, but it doesn't feel right.

Chief losing always feels right.

How overrated are we willing to say he was? Just because he beat Magus? lol

Looking at how those two have performed ever since 2005, I'd say he was overrated by a good bit.
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"Not until the end. Always."
LOLContests | Posted 1/13/2010 8:12:07 AM | message detail
Magus was 27 on BL (at least) in 2003. He obviously would have jumped in 2005 since all the old-school Square characters were higher then due to the poll placement. That would put him close to 30 on BL (near elite territory). Knuckles was overrated, but was still at a level approaching near elites.
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:35:08 AM | message detail
I'm not sure I'd attribute any sort of difference to poll placement other than higher vote totals, which definitely haven't helped CT and old school Square. I'm fine with about 30% on BL since that's where Tidus is and that's where DK is (who got the same amount on Sam Fisher that Magus did). We don't have any good reads on Alucard that year thanks to Snake/Sora though.

Alucard was about at the midpoint of the 2006 stats (which are pretty shaky at best anyway. Samus seems to mess everything up on both ends).

But going on Auron through Sonic, Magus gets about 37.36% on Auron, if I'm doing it right. Assuming Auron 2006 = Auron 2008, Magus wins with 52.36%.
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Swarles_Barkley | Posted 1/13/2010 8:39:48 AM | message detail
How was Dragon Age's day vote? It might finish second.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:41:36 AM | message detail
Luster posted trends on the last page. Dragon Age and Uncharted are going to get killed by MW2 with the day vote, that's all I know.
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
LOLContests | Posted 1/13/2010 8:43:31 AM | message detail
I'm not sure I'd attribute any sort of difference to poll placement other than higher vote totals, which definitely haven't helped CT and old school Square.

Crono and Kefka rose in popularity when the poll placement rose and dropped when it dropped. The dropping might be coincidental, might I doubt that the rising could just be a coincidence as well.

I'm fine with about 30% on BL since that's where Tidus is and that's where DK is (who got the same amount on Sam Fisher that Magus did).

There is no way those two are at 30 on BL. DK was "at" it after his anti-vote match against Chief at the height of the Nintendo Boost. There's no way he's close to it now. Tidus was never at it, even in the first couple of years, and he's dropped off since then.

We don't have any good reads on Alucard that year thanks to Snake/Sora though.

I was talking about Alucard now anyway.
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.
transience | Posted 1/13/2010 8:47:14 AM | message detail
Uncharted should be safe.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:48:38 AM | message detail
If DK isn't at 30 on BL, then Magus isn't either. What's wrong with Tidus's number anyway? Are we assuming some sort of Kirby overperformance on Bowser?

And I didn't realize Crono and Kefka got stronger in 2005. We don't even know how much Kefka loses by in 2005 if he doesn't cheat. Heck, looking at the stats, Crono's number is almost exactly the same in 2004 and 2005. I don't know where the increase is.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/13/2010 8:53:27 AM | message detail
Wasn't 2k5 where Bowser faced Solid ****?
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/13/2010 8:54:03 AM | message detail
I think we're in for a very very good half match with Alucard/Magus.

How are their trends with the day vote?

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:54:48 AM | message detail
The 2005 Snake sprite was the best one he's ever gotten!

It still sucks, but it was better!

But yeah, I guess so. Too many factors to consider in this stuff!
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"Spoil it for me. I'm never going to play that game so I want to know if he's going to be another Auron or another Sin." - Soul about Jecht vs. PW
LOLContests | Posted 1/13/2010 8:54:50 AM | message detail
If DK isn't at 30 on BL, then Magus isn't either

Well of course he's not now, my response was to Wylvane who was saying that Alucard could beat '05 Knuckles.

What's wrong with Tidus's number anyway? Are we assuming some sort of Kirby overperformance on Bowser?

No but Bowser overperformed against Solid ****. And Auron dropped that year, so it seems reasonable to me to assume that Tidus did as well, although I did not realize until now how Tidus was place. He's dropped since then regardless.

And I didn't realize Crono and Kefka got stronger in 2005. We don't even know how much Kefka loses by in 2005 if he doesn't cheat. Heck, looking at the stats, Crono's number is almost exactly the same in 2004 and 2005. I don't know where the increase is.

They didn't get stronger then, they got stronger in '04, when Crono turned his match against Mario around, and when Kefka went from fodderline to low end midcarder.
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:55:21 AM | message detail

From: Dilated Chemist | #164
I think we're in for a very very good half match with Alucard/Magus.

How are their trends with the day vote?


About as good as you'd expect a vampire's and a goth's to be.

(Abysmal)
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/13/2010 8:57:26 AM | message detail
I mean, if you think Bowser is really worth 37% on BL that's perfectly fine with me, but that's more than he's expected to get on Base Samus in 2k6. Even ignoring how goofy Samus getting Sephiroth'd in the female bracket is, that's not right.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:57:28 AM | message detail
Oh, no way Alucard beats Knuckles in 2005.

They didn't get stronger then, they got stronger in '04, when Crono turned his match against Mario around, and when Kefka went from fodderline to low end midcarder.

I'd almost be willing to blame Mario/Crono III more on Mario than Crono, but who knows with all that crappy SFF we had that year? I think a lot of people just wanted Crono to win so we'd get rid of that rivalry and because of Mario's antics the year before.

We don't even know where Kefka was in 2003 (Hey there Crono), but he beat Pac-Man, who's always been low midcard.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:58:14 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #168
I mean, if you think Bowser is really worth 37% on BL that's perfectly fine with me, but that's more than he's expected to get on Base Samus in 2k6. Even ignoring how goofy Samus getting Sephiroth'd in the female bracket is, that's not right.


Villains Contest steroids. Same thing with Ganondorf. Bowser and Ganon were definitely overperforming in most of their matches that year.
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voltch | Posted 1/13/2010 8:58:37 AM | message detail
2004 also had terrible votals for 24 hours.
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Shakes Fist!
red sox 777 | Posted 1/13/2010 8:58:46 AM | message detail
Tidus's number would be overrated due to Bowser/Snake. But Tidus was above 30% on BL in 2002 and probably 2003.

Crono looked weaker in 2005 than 2004- compare 53% on Mario with 51% on Megaman and 46% on Mario.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/13/2010 8:59:00 AM | message detail
Or maybe that year nobody cheated for Mario.

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 8:59:53 AM | message detail
2005 was more Mario boosting than Crono dropping, though I do wonder if Crono didn't drop somewhat. It's hard to say. We can't get a good read from Magus and Frog, that's for sure.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
red sox 777 | Posted 1/13/2010 9:01:02 AM | message detail
Also, I wouldn't entirely trust Mario/Crono II for extrapolation purposes. That match got over 20,000 votes above the prevailing votals levels of the time; it was the most hyped match pretty much ever, and it has thousands of known stuffed votes.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LOLContests | Posted 1/13/2010 9:01:36 AM | message detail
But Tidus was above 30% on BL in 2002.

Samus got anti-votes against Sephiroth That's most likely what WDF was. Sephiroth was HAATED on the board back then.
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 1/13/2010 9:02:15 AM | message detail
2005 being the initial Crono drop isn't unreasonable. I mean, Frog's weird and all, but he went from the upper-40s on Solid **** to being held under 30% by Samus, who has shown time and time again that she struggles to SFF anything.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 9:02:39 AM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #176
But Tidus was above 30% on BL in 2002.

Samus got anti-votes against Sephiroth That's most likely what WDF was. Sephiroth was HAATED on the board back then.


Sephiroth got anti-voted in every match. The WDF was probably Link/Mario SFF in the finals that we just kind of assumed wasn't there. It explains a lot of the inconsistencies.

Well, that, and KHF.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
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LOLContests | Posted 1/13/2010 9:04:37 AM | message detail
The WDF was probably Link/Mario SFF in the finals that we just kind of assumed wasn't there. It explains a lot of the inconsistencies.


But the problem was always how high the West Division was against Link, not against the field in general.
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/13/2010 9:05:26 AM | message detail
Even if you believe in WDF, Tidus was still above 30% on BL in 2002, and easily at that.
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6 years later, Crono's quest to defeat Sephiroth -- Round 1: Missingno
'Till shade is gone, 'till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared....
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 9:06:10 AM | message detail
Link boosted in 2003. Regardless of what you want to say about Wind Waker, 2003 Link > 2002 Link. The boost he got from Wind Waker kinda negated the SFF he got on Mario's part of the bracket so it looked like he never SFF'd them. Then everyone else dropped relative to Link because they weren't affected by WDF.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 9:06:39 AM | message detail
2002 should have been Tidus's best year anyway. FFX was only six months old at the time.
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
LOLContests | Posted 1/13/2010 9:07:26 AM | message detail
Even if you believe in WDF, Tidus was still above 30% on BL in 2002, and easily at that.

Tidus is doubly overrated, since Sonic/Tidus was down during some of Sonic's best hours.
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"Heh, heh...The wind...it is blowing."--Ganondorf
This is Yesmar.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/13/2010 9:14:29 AM | message detail

From: Swarles_Barkley | #158
How was Dragon Age's day vote? It might finish second.


Pretty bad. It normally drops at least 1% during the asv.
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voltch | Posted 1/13/2010 9:15:25 AM | message detail
what the hell is WDF?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 9:26:52 AM | message detail
West Division Factor - The theory that somehow the entire West Division from the 2002 contest was overrated, though no one's really sure how or why it happened. Nearly every character from that division dropped in 2003.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/13/2010 9:29:28 AM | message detail
One day people like the color blue over red. That's the way it is.

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 9:30:30 AM | message detail
Every day people like the color blue over red.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/13/2010 9:31:04 AM | message detail
One day people like the color black over white. That's the way it is.

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
voltch | Posted 1/13/2010 9:33:51 AM | message detail
like, I don't trust data from 2k5, but bringing up 2k2?
we're in a new decade goddamnit.
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Shakes Fist!
Dilated Chemist | Posted 1/13/2010 9:34:28 AM | message detail
SPOILERS

Reading the last Codex page in AC2 might hint of Altair returning in AC3.

http://assassinscreed.wikia.com/wiki/The_Codex

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GT: TriggerTRE
When life gives you lemons you get some tequila!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/13/2010 9:35:23 AM | message detail
This is the first time in a long time anyone's even brought up WDF!
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/13/2010 9:56:12 AM | message detail
Well, it looks like Uncharted 2 will have plenty of time to build up a lead on MW2 before the ASV if it does pass it during the night vote.

Whoops, I messed up there.

Uncharted should be safe.

Dragon Age couldn't do much with the night vote but simply stall Uncharted. The 2 games are still stuck in a big stallfest as of right now. Both games should drop with the day vote, but unless Uncharted 2 drops off harder here, second place should be locked up for sure.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/13/2010 9:58:19 AM | message detail
Yeah, they've been stuck in the 600 range since like 2:30 AM last night apparently.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/13/2010 10:16:59 AM | message detail
Anyone notice you can view the poll by state? LOL
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Krahen Prophet did a fatality.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/13/2010 10:17:02 AM | message detail
Good to know people still remember WDF, I helped create that. I think the explanation was people didn't want an all Nintendo final so they tried to vote Sephiroth over Link as a last ditch effort.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB8%20BOP.xls
Submit bracket here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=52670380
HaRRicH | Posted 1/13/2010 10:17:23 AM | message detail
Don't look now (look now), but we can already see the poll today by region and even US states. Whoa.
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/13/2010 10:18:35 AM | message detail
coolbeans!
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/13/2010 10:18:55 AM | message detail
Curses, MS!
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T E A M C H O C O L A T E
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/13/2010 10:20:59 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3727&region=USXWV

no surprise a game with a possible incest scene is so popular in west virginia ... !
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